Bandit's Annual Mock

[John from Riverside]

Per Drafttek trade chart 19th pick is worth Denver's 31st and 63rd picks.

 

31st Jarran Reed DT Alabama

49th Von Bell SS Ohio ST

63rd Kamalei Correa OLB

80th Cyrus Jones CB Alabama

117th Charone Peake WR Clemson

139th Kevin Hogan QB Stanford

156th Antonio Morrison ILB Florida

192nd Aziz Shittu DE Stanford

I really like Kamalei Correa......would consider him in the 2nd

[Luxy312]

 

Butler did visit, though I don't think they're married to the philosophy of having to meet with a guy.

 

Also, I don't have Rankins ahead of Butler for multiple-front teams. Butler, for me, ranks way ahead of Reed on all of my boards, but that's JMO.

 

Thanks for the comments!

 

You and I tend to think alike draft-wise.

 

I didn't say Butler didn't visit. All I said is that the Bills (as to most other teams) have him as second round value and not first. He sits right in between their two picks which to me makes it highly unlikely that they would just trade down to 31 and then pray that he's still there. At the end of the day, I didn't see any more than anyone else in terms of game film and ultimately try to guess what the team is doing based on facts. With Butler slotting out between 25-35 where as you have Rankins 10-20 and Reed 15-25, I just don't see the Bills passing on either of the latter two.

 

I guess what I'm trying to get to here is that if your mock had Reed and Rankins both gone and the Bills were set on DT, then the trade down would make more sense. So with 8 of their 22 visits so far slotting pretty close to the 19th pick and another 6 slotting pretty close to the 49th pick and Butler being the only tweener/outlier, it doesn't seem to me that the Bills are thinking trade. Either of us could clearly be wrong, but I'm going with history.

[Mark80]

Nice job Mr. P. I got Jerry taking Elliot though, Bosa would just make too much sense for him.

[thebandit27]

Per Drafttek trade chart 19th pick is worth Denver's 31st and 63rd picks.

 

31st Jarran Reed DT Alabama

49th Von Bell SS Ohio ST

63rd Kamalei Correa OLB

80th Cyrus Jones CB Alabama

117th Charone Peake WR Clemson

139th Kevin Hogan QB Stanford

156th Antonio Morrison ILB Florida

192nd Aziz Shittu DE Stanford

 

I'm going to get flamed for this, but I have Jarran Reed falling all the way to 46 (Detroit) right now. Just can't find a way to get him ahead of guys like Ogbah, Nkemdiche, and Billings.

 

I really like Kamalei Correa......would consider him in the 2nd

 

You might have to move up for him--there are teams that have him graded as a 1st rounder.

 

I didn't say Butler didn't visit. All I said is that the Bills (as to most other teams) have him as second round value and not first. He sits right in between their two picks which to me makes it highly unlikely that they would just trade down to 31 and then pray that he's still there. At the end of the day, I didn't see any more than anyone else in terms of game film and ultimately try to guess what the team is doing based on facts. With Butler slotting out between 25-35 where as you have Rankins 10-20 and Reed 15-25, I just don't see the Bills passing on either of the latter two.

 

I guess what I'm trying to get to here is that if your mock had Reed and Rankins both gone and the Bills were set on DT, then the trade down would make more sense. So with 8 of their 22 visits so far slotting pretty close to the 19th pick and another 6 slotting pretty close to the 49th pick and Butler being the only tweener/outlier, it doesn't seem to me that the Bills are thinking trade. Either of us could clearly be wrong, but I'm going with history.

 

I'm not following your logic. If 8 of their visits are available at 19, and they're moving down to 31, should they expect to see all 8 of them (or even 6 of 8) be picked in the next 12 picks? That seems like a stretch; thus it makes sense to move down IMO.

 

Also, I think you're making a pretty big leap in assuming that Rankins/Reed are far ahead of Butler on their board. At least I don't know that to be true--you may, it would hardly be the first time someone on here had insights into their draft plans.

 

Regardless, it's all going to be moot as soon as the first "wow" pick hits the board...and it will...because teams do funny things.

 

Nice job Mr. P. I got Jerry taking Elliot though, Bosa would just make too much sense for him.

 

Thanks--Dallas has been so much less fun since Jerry gave over to McClay on the personnel front. Now, when McClay gets offered a full GM job from another team with all the perks...well...

[DrDawkinstein]

Per Drafttek trade chart 19th pick is worth Denver's 31st and 63rd picks.

 

31st Jarran Reed DT Alabama

49th Von Bell SS Ohio ST

63rd Kamalei Correa OLB

80th Cyrus Jones CB Alabama

117th Charone Peake WR Clemson

139th Kevin Hogan QB Stanford

156th Antonio Morrison ILB Florida

192nd Aziz Shittu DE Stanford

 

Not real big on Reed or Correa, but if we can swap in Butler and... not sure the LB available, I'd be pretty happy with the players and value in that draft.

 

 

 

I don't have either Cravens or Bell making it to 49. I think there's a small chance of Correa getting there, and he'd be my ideal pick at that point.

 

To go from 63 to, say, 43, you're talking about having to give up a 3rd round pick--a 4th round pick will help you jump about 7 spots in the 2nd round.

 

If Correa doesn't get to 49, I think you take a long look at Tyler Boyd (if you want to go offense), or you could go with a Kyler Fackrell type if he suits your fancy. I'd be plenty willing to move from 49 to 42 using a 4th round pick if it means getting Correa. I think if you choose to go in another direction at 49, you might look to Shilique Calhoun at 63 under my scenario.

Thanks for the breakdown!

 

Im not big on Correa. I know its a stupid bias, but I cant get on board with any player from Boise St. With all the LBs in this draft, Id be pretty disappointed if he was the one we ended up with. Would take a long look at DB there if that's my choice.

 

I think that there would be a reasonable chance that you could get both if that's what you wanted. If the Bills walked out of the 1st 2 rounds with something like Butler, Michael Thomas and Cravens I would be thrilled.

 

Here is the draft value chart: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

 

Butler, Thomas, Craves through the 2nd round would be a great start!

[Rubes]

 

So it's:

 

#19, #49 vs. #31, #49, #63

 

Hrrmm...

 

Well, if nothing else, it would allow us to feel a little bit what it's like to be a Super Bowl winner.

[Virgil]

I have to say, impressive and well thought out. Your logic makes sense. I hate waiting until 32 to pick, but I think this draft is deep enough where it works.

 

I definitely agree on Lynch and Cook going in the first round to teams trying to trade back into the first round. Denver makes a ton of sense here.

[DrDawkinstein]

 

Well, if nothing else, it would allow us to feel a little bit what it's like to be a Super Bowl winner.

 

Still cant get that #32 spot...

[Luxy312]

I'm not following your logic. If 8 of their visits are available at 19, and they're moving down to 31, should they expect to see all 8 of them (or even 6 of 8) be picked in the next 12 picks? That seems like a stretch; thus it makes sense to move down IMO.

 

 

You're not following my logic. 8 of their visits from a draft board perspective are slotted right around their pick at #19. Looking at average position, why would they visit with guys going #12, #14, #15, #16, #18, #19, #20, and #23 if their master plan is to trade down from #19 to #31? That's essentially 8 wasted visits out of the 30 that they're allowed. Why do that? It's the equivalent of staying at the #19 pick and adding Goff, Wentz, and Tunsil to your visit list. It's folly and doesn't follow logic at all. I guess I'm trying to read the tea leaves here.

[thebandit27]

 

You're not following my logic. 8 of their visits from a draft board perspective are slotted right around their pick at #19. Looking at average position, why would they visit with guys going #12, #14, #15, #16, #18, #19, #20, and #23 if their master plan is to trade down from #19 to #31? That's essentially 8 wasted visits out of the 30 that they're allowed. Why do that? It's the equivalent of staying at the #19 pick and adding Goff, Wentz, and Tunsil to your visit list. It's folly and doesn't follow logic at all. I guess I'm trying to read the tea leaves here.

 

Well, in general, you're bringing guys in to visit that you didn't get to spend as much time with as you'd like during Senior Bowl week, the combine, pro days, etc.

 

Also, I don't think it's their "master plan" to trade down...I think that if they're presented with an opportunity to add a top-65 pick by moving down, and still get someone that they feel can be an impact player, they'll take the opportunity.

 

Also, I don't think it makes sense to look at visits as wasted vs. not. There's a method to bringing guys in that's more than "who do we want to draft". You have to factor in all kinds of things like getting information from them about a teammate, evaluating guys that fit the mold for teams in your division to get advanced scouting on them, etc.

[Luxy312]

 

Well, in general, you're bringing guys in to visit that you didn't get to spend as much time with as you'd like during Senior Bowl week, the combine, pro days, etc.

 

Also, I don't think it's their "master plan" to trade down...I think that if they're presented with an opportunity to add a top-65 pick by moving down, and still get someone that they feel can be an impact player, they'll take the opportunity.

 

Also, I don't think it makes sense to look at visits as wasted vs. not. There's a method to bringing guys in that's more than "who do we want to draft". You have to factor in all kinds of things like getting information from them about a teammate, evaluating guys that fit the mold for teams in your division to get advanced scouting on them, etc.

 

Except as I said, and which you have ignored, every first draft pick for the Bills in the last 10 years has been a visit. So you prescribing it to be "limited value", or whatever it is you're actually saying, doesn't fit with reality. Last year, their visits were all over the board in terms of draft position versus their picks. Clearly, they were considering potentially moving around if the opportunity presented itself. Half of the visits they're allowed this year are clumped around their first two picks. Getting an extra pick at #65 doesn't seem to mean anything to me based on what they're actually doing. If a trade down had the value that you're suggesting that it had, I would expect more visits than just ONE guy that is slotted around where they would pick if they traded. Not very smart front office thinking if that's the reality.

[GunnerBill]

 

I have Bell going 41 to Chicago right now...Cravens I just can't place. He strikes me as a TB-type, so that's a possibility, but I also think he could end up in Oakland at 44.

 

2nd round is so tough to predict, because that's when all kinds of trades start to go down.

 

Where do you have Deion Jones going Bandit? If we picked up the extra 2nd might be an option at that #63 pick?

Edited April 25, 2016 by GunnerBill

[thebandit27]

 

Except as I said, and which you have ignored, every first draft pick for the Bills in the last 10 years has been a visit. So you prescribing it to be "limited value", or whatever it is you're actually saying, doesn't fit with reality. Last year, their visits were all over the board in terms of draft position versus their picks. Clearly, they were considering potentially moving around if the opportunity presented itself. Half of the visits they're allowed this year are clumped around their first two picks. Getting an extra pick at #65 doesn't seem to mean anything to me based on what they're actually doing. If a trade down had the value that you're suggesting that it had, I would expect more visits than just ONE guy that is slotted around where they would pick if they traded. Not very smart front office thinking if that's the reality.

Actually, I've addressed your point on more than one occasion; I don't think that they're married to the idea of having to visit with a player before they pick him.

 

Yes, they've done it every year since 2010 (except last year from what I can tell--Darby didn't visit).

Yes, I recognize that you're insistent that they'll do it again this year.

 

I, on the other hand, don't think it's a given.

 

In actuality, you seem to be missing my point. I've said multiple times that I don't think they're planning a trade down, but rather will take the opportunity to do so when presented with an offer such as the one outlined herein. It seems to be your opinion that years of scouting and compiling a draft board succumb to the insights gained in a pre-draft visit, such that a player that they've scouted, graded, and stacked on their board won't make the cut if he didn't come to One Bills Drive.

 

If that's your opinion, that's fine. I disagree. Doug Whaley himself said that they prepare for all possibilities on draft day--I'll assume that trading out of the 19 slot is one of them.

 

I'm happy to talk as much draft as you'd like, but at this point it feels like I'm having to do too much to defend a pretty-well-thought-through opinion, so I'll probably let this particular issue die out.

 

Where do you have Deion Jones going Bandit? If we picked up the extra 2nd might be an option at that #63 pick?

If he were there I'd jump, but I have him going to TB in round 2 (Cravens to Oakland) Edited April 25, 2016 by thebandit27

[dave mcbride]

great read; thanks!

[GunnerBill]

If he were there I'd jump, but I have him going to TB in round 2 (Cravens to Oakland)

 

Ah darn. I thought I might have him graded a little higher than the consensus. I have him top half of the 2nd, but thought he might be available a bit later.

 

This is year 3 of me trying to grade players and mock drafts..... I counted on Sunday I have watched and graded 89 players this year which is the most I've ever done, but not enough to give me total confidence I have seen everyone who might make it into round 2. I might try to watch enough for a full two round mock next year.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Ah darn. I thought I might have him graded a little higher than the consensus. I have him top half of the 2nd, but thought he might be available a bit later.

 

This is year 3 of me trying to grade players and mock drafts..... I counted on Sunday I have watched and graded 89 players this year which is the most I've ever done, but not enough to give me total confidence I have seen everyone who might make it into round 2. I might try to watch enough for a full two round mock next year.

Gunner, anyone that you like for the Bills that isn't talked a lot about here?

[GunnerBill]

The only relatively unheralded guy I like a lot from what I have seen is the tackle from Stanford, Murphy. I see a lot of people talking about him as a 4th or 5th rounder... if we did the trade back thing that Bandit suggests I would not be against him with the Broncos 2nd round pick that is in line with the grade I gave him (aware that most people would call that a reach).

 

I am also a fan of the two recievers Bandit has talked up on here previously as day 3 guys. Particularly Robby Anderson from Temple.

 

There are a few more that have been talked about I don't like. I am not a Cravens fan for example. For me he is entirely a product of the Buchanon kid in Arizona. I honestly think you go back 3 or 4 years people would be saying "safety - linebacker tweener, worth a shot in the 4th" and because of the success of Buchanon as a similar type he has been pushed up. I think he is worse than average as a cover guy. I don't have a first round grade on Kevin Dodd and I don't think that many teams will have although a lot of people think I am miles out on that.

 

I haven't quite got deep enough to discover a load of hidden gems. Bandit and Blokestradamus are your guys for that. I am a relative novice in comparison.

[Kirby Jackson]

The only relatively unheralded guy I like a lot from what I have seen is the tackle from Stanford, Murphy. I see a lot of people talking about him as a 4th or 5th rounder... if we did the trade back thing that Bandit suggests I would not be against him with the Broncos 2nd round pick that is in line with the grade I gave him (aware that most people would call that a reach).

 

I am also a fan of the two recievers Bandit has talked up on here previously as day 3 guys. Particularly Robby Anderson from Temple.

 

There are a few more that have been talked about I don't like. I am not a Cravens fan for example. For me he is entirely a product of the Buchanon kid in Arizona. I honestly think you go back 3 or 4 years people would be saying "safety - linebacker tweener, worth a shot in the 4th" and because of the success of Buchanon as a similar type he has been pushed up. I think he is worse than average as a cover guy. I don't have a first round grade on Kevin Dodd and I don't think that many teams will have although a lot of people think I am miles out on that.

 

I haven't quite got deep enough to discover a load of hidden gems. Bandit and Blokestradamus are your guys for that. I am a relative novice in comparison.

Thanks!! I always enjoy what you have to say.

 

I follow what those guys have to say (especially this time of year). Bandit is always on top of stuff. He's as good of a poster as we have on this site.

 

Bloke has really brought it with the scouting. His opinions are well thought out and he knows a great deal about the prospects all the way through the draft.

[thebandit27]

Gunner is right on with Murphy IMO; I gave him a 3rd Round grade.

 

Very athletic with excellent pad level. Needs to add strength and improve his footwork, but there's a starting tackle in there.

[GunnerBill]

Gunner is right on with Murphy IMO; I gave him a 3rd Round grade.

 

Very athletic with excellent pad level. Needs to add strength and improve his footwork, but there's a starting tackle in there.

Yea if he can add some bulk and power I think he could be not just serviceable but really good. I actually noticed him watching Hogan and when I went and looked a bit deeper I was hugely impressed.