Quirk in NFL Schedule according to professor

[metzelaars_lives]

 

That I thought this year's level of performance was, in the main, terrible and that level of performance next year on a schedule that - let's face it whatever you think about teams going forwards or backwards - would do well to be easier than one where we played the weakest two divisions in this year's NFL would result in fewer wins. I don't think it is by any means certain that we sweep the Jets and the Dolphins again next year and I think given that the rest of the schedule is tougher (the NFC North and NFC West will not be the two weakest divisions in football next year) it could get worse.

 

Equally I am hopeful of this team getting better. There are reasons to think it might. But it will have to. Because putting this year's level of performance on that schedule would result in worse than 8-8 I am utterly convinced of it.

Then what did you say about 4-12?

 

This year's team was 12th on offense and 19th on defense. We scored more points than we allowed and gained more yards than we allowed. They were not terrible. They were pretty much a classic 8-8 team.

Edited January 24, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[NoSaint]

 

Well obviously the Bills didn't handle their business. But the Giants tailed off in the 2nd half of the season. Switch when the BIlls play the Giants and Redskins and they likely are 2-0.

4-4 the first half and 2-6 the second, so sure, if you want to argue we lost to a good team week 4, so be it...

 

But I'd say there's an argument that a 1pt loss to NE, or 3 to Carolina were probably similar quality to beating San Fran or a Dallas team without Dez or romo...

 

I think they were pretty consistently the type of team you have to beat consistently if you want to be a successful Nfl team.

[GunnerBill]

Then what did you say about 4-12?

 

This year's team was 12th on offense and 19th on defense. We scored more points than we allowed and gained more yards than we allowed. They were not terrible. They very much deserved to be 8-8.

 

Yes I said 4-12 was not an unreasonable prediction. I still believe that if we perform like we did this year on next year's schedule 4-12 is possible. Giving stats about this year's team doesn't change my mind because as I keep saying - they played the two weakest decisions in football and as the professor's analysis indicates that is extremely rare.

 

You kept bringing up that we won 4 division games and saying "so we won't beat anyone else?" Well starting from 0 next September we don't have those 4 wins to fall back on.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

Yes I said 4-12 was not an unreasonable prediction. I still believe that if we perform like we did this year on next year's schedule 4-12 is possible. Giving stats about this year's team doesn't change my mind because as I keep saying - they played the two weakest decisions in football and as the professor's analysis indicates that is extremely rare.

 

You kept bringing up that we won 4 division games and saying "so we won't beat anyone else?" Well starting from 0 next September we don't have those 4 wins to fall back on.

4-12 is a completely and utterly ridiculous prediction. To be 4-12 you have to suck. The Bills do not suck. They didn't suck this year and they won't suck next year. If Taylor never gets hurt, they're 9-7. A 9-7 team doesn't go 4-12 because of a difference in schedule. You do realize we get the 49ers and Browns at home next year, right? So predicting they go 2-12 in the rest of their games is completely unreasonable, yes.

 

We play 8 games next season against teams that, as we sit here, we are a better football team than right now (Mia 2x, Bal, Cle, SF, LA, Jax and Oak). A lot of people keep giving the benefit of the doubt to teams that aren't as good as us (like Jacksonville- you do realize they still suck, right?) and trying to tell everyone that the Bills are actually worse than they performed. The Bills had an inexplicably bad year on defense and sustained a lot of injuries. There's no reason to think they won't be better. Bottom line, I am worried about the Bills, not their schedule. If the Bills are good, they'll be just fine.

Edited January 24, 2016 by metzelaars_lives

[Doc]

4-4 the first half and 2-6 the second, so sure, if you want to argue we lost to a good team week 4, so be it...

 

But I'd say there's an argument that a 1pt loss to NE, or 3 to Carolina were probably similar quality to beating San Fran or a Dallas team without Dez or romo...

 

I think they were pretty consistently the type of team you have to beat consistently if you want to be a successful Nfl team.

 

A "good" team? Arguably. A team playing better? Yes. But that's the way the schedule shook out so there's not much you can do about it.

[GunnerBill]

If the Bills are good, they'll be just fine.

 

I agree. But they were not good this year. The only reason their record didn't look quite like suckitude is that we played some bad teams.

 

EDIT: And I did throughout all of it say - it is notoriously hard to predict this far out. I will make my final prediction on the record before the season. But the Bills were worse than it appears at first viewing this season. The defense stopped pretty much nobody.

Edited January 24, 2016 by GunnerBill

[firemedic]

People need to stop saying this.

 

1. WE COULD BE VERY GOOD OURSELVES.

 

2. You never know how good the teams we face our going to be. Every year, my brother and I laugh because we think the schedule is going to be "easy" or "hard" and more often than not, it turns out to be the opposite. This year, our two additional games turned out to be very tough- Cincinnati and KC. Next year, it's Oakland and Jacksonville.

 

3. We play the Rams, the 49ers, the Browns, the Jaguars, the Raiders and the Dolphins and Jets twice. Who exactly are you scared of? Are you certain Baltimore has a bounce back year? Are you certain Cincinnati is as good as they were this year? I could totally see them taking a step backwards after that playoff implosion. Yes, Seattle, Arizona and Pittsburgh will be tough. But again if Rex gets the defense's act together, we could be pretty damn tough ourselves.

 

4. Bottom line, we play:

 

-the same division we always play

 

-the NFC West (two good teams, two whatever teams)

 

-the AFC North (complete question mark outside of Pittsburgh and there's always like a 25% chance Roethlisberger will be hurt)

 

-Oakland and Jacksonville

 

The Bills need to worry about themselves. If they get their own s**t together, they'll be just fine.

Unfortunately, we're "retooling" a formerly awesome defense which has players playing against their strengths.......I'm not seeing anything better than 10th ranked. Offense better be a healthy lights out : / Edited January 24, 2016 by firemedic

[bobobonators]

4-12 is a completely and utterly ridiculous prediction. To be 4-12 you have to suck. The Bills do not suck. They didn't suck this year and they won't suck next year. If Taylor never gets hurt, they're 9-7. A 9-7 team doesn't go 4-12 because of a difference in schedule. You do realize we get the 49ers and Browns at home next year, right? So predicting they go 2-12 in the rest of their games is completely unreasonable, yes.

 

We play 8 games next season against teams that, as we sit here, we are a better football team than right now (Mia 2x, Bal, Cle, SF, LA, Jax and Oak). A lot of people keep giving the benefit of the doubt to teams that aren't as good as us (like Jacksonville- you do realize they still suck, right?) and trying to tell everyone that the Bills are actually worse than they performed. The Bills had an inexplicably bad year on defense and sustained a lot of injuries. There's no reason to think they won't be better. Bottom line, I am worried about the Bills, not their schedule. If the Bills are good, they'll be just fine.

The Bills already lost to this brutal Jags team you keep referencing. Edited January 24, 2016 by bobobonators

[eball]

That super hot giants team had 90 rush yards, and outside the infamous missed tackle like 150 passing. They were 1-2 going in and eeked out a win vs San Fran the following week.

 

We just didn't handle our business

 

Yes, without Shady and Sammy, and it being Tyrod's 4th start, we didn't handle our business.

 

Really, it's like folks assume the Bills -- under a completely new coaching staff -- were at full strength and running on all cylinders as a predetermined playoff club from the get-go.

 

I'm not making excuses for the team; I was as disappointed as anyone. But let's stop with the notion that they had a playoff ticket punched before the season started.

[Doc]

Yes, without Shady and Sammy, and it being Tyrod's 4th start, we didn't handle our business.

 

Really, it's like folks assume the Bills -- under a completely new coaching staff -- were at full strength and running on all cylinders as a predetermined playoff club from the get-go.

 

I'm not making excuses for the team; I was as disappointed as anyone. But let's stop with the notion that they had a playoff ticket punched before the season started.

 

Good point. Forgot about not having Sammy, Shady, or AW.

[GunnerBill]

The Bills already lost to this brutal Jags team you keep referencing.

 

He doesn't count that loss because Tyrod didn't play.

 

If the Bills are good they will be fine. The point is this year they weren't good and there is not much give in that schedule.

[bbb]

http://www.nj.com/education/2016/01/nfl_schedule_unfair_rutgers_professor_says.html#incart_river_mobile_home

 

It's sad we couldnt take advantage.

 

I've been saying this exact thing. This year was so tailor made for us to get a wild card. Ugh!

 

[NoSaint]

 

Yes, without Shady and Sammy, and it being Tyrod's 4th start, we didn't handle our business.

 

Really, it's like folks assume the Bills -- under a completely new coaching staff -- were at full strength and running on all cylinders as a predetermined playoff club from the get-go.

 

I'm not making excuses for the team; I was as disappointed as anyone. But let's stop with the notion that they had a playoff ticket punched before the season started.

it was a 6-10 team that was missing JPP and Cruz, too... Teams have injuries and adversity - we didn't win. Lots of angles to debate it from, but in the end, we didn't handle our business that day.

 

And I'm not one that punched the ticket early. I was in the class that got beat up for thinking that we would be around an 7 to 9 win team that showed up big some weeks and would struggle mightily with inconsistency others. We have a ton of talent but this was not one of our good weeks.

[eball]

it was a 6-10 team that was missing JPP and Cruz, too... Teams have injuries and adversity - we didn't win. Lots of angles to debate it from, but in the end, we didn't handle our business that day.

 

And I'm not one that punched the ticket early. I was in the class that got beat up for thinking that we would be around an 7 to 9 win team that showed up big some weeks and would struggle mightily with inconsistency others. We have a ton of talent but this was not one of our good weeks.

 

I know you didn't. I'm just getting sick of reading posts that make it seem as if the Bills were an 0-16 team this year. Jesus Christ, they were a hair away from the playoffs. They played the Pats*** within a TD in both games and swept the rest of their division.

 

I need to take a vacation from this place.

[4merper4mer]

This article was interesting. It also makes me a little sad that the Bills could only manage an 8-8 record with the concentration of weak teams on their schedule.

 

 

Cuz. Rex. Sux.

[bobobonators]

 

He doesn't count that loss because Tyrod didn't play.

 

If the Bills are good they will be fine. The point is this year they weren't good and there is not much give in that schedule.

At end of the day you have to win those games. Pitt made the playoffs with their 3rd string Qb starting a bunch of games.

 

Jags are going to keep getting better bc of their QB thats a fact. But hopefully so will we.

[1B4IDie]

http://www.nj.com/education/2016/01/nfl_schedule_unfair_rutgers_professor_says.html#incart_river_mobile_home

It's sad we couldnt take advantage.

Um, this was pretty obvious in April of 2015.

 

When the Bills beat the Colts in the opener they should have run the table in the weak AFC South and the NFC East is garbage.

 

It doesn't take a lot of fancy charts to figure out that the AFC East had a weak schedule.

 

A real analysis would do some analysis of Division and place and their effect on making the playoffs.

 

For example the NFC division team that played the AFC East made the Super Bowl and inordinate amount of times.

Edited January 24, 2016 by 1B4IDie

[bobobonators]

Um, this was pretty obvious in April of 2015.

 

When the Bills beat the Colts in the opener they should have run the table in the weak AFC South and the NFC East is garbage.

 

It doesn't take a lot of fancy charts to figure out that the AFC East had a weak schedule.

 

A real analysis would do some analysis of Division and place and their effect on making the playoffs.

 

For example the NFC division team that played the AFC East made the Super Bowl and inordinate amount of times.

Did you read the entire article?

[1B4IDie]

Um, this was pretty obvious in April of 2015.

When the Bills beat the Colts in the opener they should have run the table in the weak AFC South and the NFC East is garbage.

It doesn't take a lot of fancy charts to figure out that the AFC East had a weak schedule.

A real analysis would do some analysis of Division and place and their effect on making the playoffs.

For example the NFC division team that played the AFC East made the Super Bowl and inordinate amount of times.

 

Did you read the entire article?

Yes. Now twice.

A Graph of every single season is proving that two division, 1 in the NFC and 1 in the AFC will have the same non division opponents.

 

Like I said it's not that complicated to figure that out.

 

He isn't doing any type of analysis that I described.

Questions:

Is there a relationship between what position you placed in the year prior and making the playoffs?

 

Is there a relation between being scheduled a specific AFC Division and making the playoffs/Super Bowl?

 

Is there a relation between being scheduled a specific NFC Division and making the playoffs/Super Bowl?

Edited January 24, 2016 by 1B4IDie

[GunnerBill]

At end of the day you have to win those games. Pitt made the playoffs with their 3rd string Qb starting a bunch of games.

 

Jags are going to keep getting better bc of their QB thats a fact. But hopefully so will we.

Oh I agree with you. I was arguing Metz's logic. If the Jags can find a defense they are gonna get very good very quickly. I am a big Bortles fan and those two receivers can play.