Phantom call on Robey =Royally Screwed in England

[ToGoGo]

Green Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans.

 

4th, 16th, 2nd, and 5th largest nationwide fanbases, respectively. Maybe "small nationwide fanbase" is a better term than "small-market".

 

 

I wouldn't include Detroit on your list of smaller TV markets, either. It's in the top 15, ahead of Seattle.

 

Bottom half of NFL popularity.

 

The size of any team's television market has nothing to do with how much money a team gets in shared broadcast revenues. As I said earlier, it is a fixed amount over the next nine years when it kicked in after the '13 season and that was established several years ago. For instance, when LA has a team or two again, it won't even move the needle on television ratings and the NFL won't be in a position to demand more as a result.

 

I was talking about nationwide TV ratings (think night games and playoff games), not local television markets. A Patriots-Cowboys showdown will always have a higher rating than a Bills-Browns game no matter how good the Bills and Browns are.

 

The revenues may be fixed today, but what about during the next negotiations? Is the NFL going to risk losing 1-2 billion dollars when it can do something about it?

 

 

 

TV advertising rates don't fluctuate according to when in the game an ad is run, whether it's 1st quarter or fourth. There is something to the idea that advertisers seek to maximize the cost per viewer which is why they prefer their ads to be shown earlier in games, but that is not really a factor in regular season games and when an ad is placed is based on a first come, first served basis. Some advertisers buy their time early on, others get discounts; etc. long before any games kickoff, let alone when the two SB teams are realized.

 

I have heard about contingencies during the Super Bowl where if the game is a blowout, commercial spots will cost half as much.

 

Also, the value of 4th quarter ad spots increase if data shows that more NFL games come down to the wire. It's a funny coincidence that games are getting tighter and tighter.

 

 

 

If you were to argue that the league seeks to favor big market teams or keep the games close for gambling purposes, I'd be willing to entertain the thought. TV market size is just not a concern given the nature of the revenue sharing system in place.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I agree with you there.

Beerball closed the other referee thread because this one was already open. So I thought that I would repost something from that thread over here:

 

: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1X-YPjOwG0

It's a Frontline documentary from 1983 about the NFL, gambling, and organized crime.

Some cool tidbits:

- Al Davis was close with a Vegas mafia frontman named Marty Glick who sold Davis part of a mall for $5,000. I wonder how he got such a good deal.

- Ken Stabler was reported FIFTEEN times for being seen out with a prominent bookie and the NFL never did anything about it.

- The owner of the San Diego Chargers owned a hotel in Acapulco that hosted a mafia gathering for Meyer Lansky. Yes, the owner was in attendance.

- Two NFL players, including an OL from the Bills were forced to retire from the NFL after being caught fixing games in the 70's.

- The famous Namath Super Bowl was most likely fixed to increase the value of the AFL before the merger.

- Carroll Rosenbloom, owner of the LA Rams and involved with the mob in Cuba die mysteriously in 1979, apparently from drowning.

- Owner of the Saints in the early 80's, along with the owner of the Chargers and Al Davis were attached to several joint real estate deals with organized crime members.

[K-9]

 

4th, 16th, 2nd, and 5th largest nationwide fanbases, respectively. Maybe "small nationwide fanbase" is a better term than "small-market".

 

It is. But you made your argument about big TV markets being favored and why small TV markets routinely finish worse in the standings. Some of the smallest TV markets in the league have had the most success on the field. That was my point.

 

 

Bottom half of NFL popularity.

 

True. But another example of big TV market or not having little bearing.

 

 

I was talking about nationwide TV ratings (think night games and playoff games), not local television markets. A Patriots-Cowboys showdown will always have a higher rating than a Bills-Browns game no matter how good the Bills and Browns are.

 

The revenues may be fixed today, but what about during the next negotiations? Is the NFL going to risk losing 1-2 billion dollars when it can do something about it?

 

Why would the NFL be at risk of losing broadcast revenues? Because it's big market teams didn't do well and lost viewers? Really? All the historical evidence suggests otherwise. The 2nd largest TV market has been without a team for 20 years, many large market teams haven't won squat, and yet TV ratings continue to go through the roof, regardless. The NFL is not at risk of losing advertisers. They continue to beat a path to its door and that will only increase as different media are exploited worldwide.

 

 

 

I have heard about contingencies during the Super Bowl where if the game is a blowout, commercial spots will cost half as much.

 

Also, the value of 4th quarter ad spots increase if data shows that more NFL games come down to the wire. It's a funny coincidence that games are getting tighter and tighter.

 

Again, the preferred time to air an ad in earlier in the game, before it has a chance to become a blowout, and advertisers can get the most viewers per dollar spent and these dollars are spent well in advance of a game being played. Close games are always going to keep more viewers, but that's not a function of TV market size, either. It's a conspiracy theory that lacks legs.

 

 

I agree with you there.

Beerball closed the other referee thread because this one was already open. So I thought that I would repost something from that thread over here:

 

: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1X-YPjOwG0

It's a Frontline documentary from 1983 about the NFL, gambling, and organized crime.

Some cool tidbits:

- Al Davis was close with a Vegas mafia frontman named Marty Glick who sold Davis part of a mall for $5,000. I wonder how he got such a good deal.

- Ken Stabler was reported FIFTEEN times for being seen out with a prominent bookie and the NFL never did anything about it.

- The owner of the San Diego Chargers owned a hotel in Acapulco that hosted a mafia gathering for Meyer Lansky. Yes, the owner was in attendance.

- Two NFL players, including an OL from the Bills were forced to retire from the NFL after being caught fixing games in the 70's.

- The famous Namath Super Bowl was most likely fixed to increase the value of the AFL before the merger.

- Carroll Rosenbloom, owner of the LA Rams and involved with the mob in Cuba die mysteriously in 1979, apparently from drowning.

- Owner of the Saints in the early 80's, along with the owner of the Chargers and Al Davis were attached to several joint real estate deals with organized crime members.

There is no doubt gambling has an influence around the league. The fact that owners own stakes in fantasy league businesses and the NFL is so willing to accept their ad dollars is mind boggling to me. I predict Congress will get involved sooner or later.

GO BILLS!!!

[ToGoGo]

GO BILLS!!!

 

I think there was some miscommunication between us. I used big and small market teams as examples. Those were probably the wrong terms.

 

Detroit is a bigger market than Green Bay, yet Green Bay has many times more fans nationwide. Overall popularity is a better variable to use. There is correlation with market size (Chicago, NY, Dallas) but there are exceptions like the Packers, Saints, Steelers, etc. .

 

 

 

Why would the NFL be at risk of losing broadcast revenues? Because it's big market teams didn't do well and lost viewers? Really? All the historical evidence suggests otherwise. The 2nd largest TV market has been without a team for 20 years, many large market teams haven't won squat, and yet TV ratings continue to go through the roof, regardless. The NFL is not at risk of losing advertisers. They continue to beat a path to its door and that will only increase as different media are exploited worldwide.

 

Think of it from a macro point of view.

 

Let's say the NFL Conference Finals include the following teams: Bengals, Chiefs; Cardinals, Panthers

Average TV rating - 15.4

 

Now in an alternate universe we have the following Conference Final teams: Patriots, Broncos; Packers, Cowboys

Average TV rating - 20.1

 

I tried to make it as realistic as possible. Now let's say with zero NFL influence the NFL playoffs over a 9 year TV contract averages a 17.1 rating not including the Super Bowl. Now let's say WITH influence (referees keeping games close, making calls favoring popular teams) the average NFL ratings are now 19.2.

 

Walking into negotiations with CBS and FOX with 19.2 vs 17.1 is worth a couple billion dollars at least, I would imagine.

 

That's the gist of what I'm arguing. Basic business stuff.

 

 

 

Again, the preferred time to air an ad in earlier in the game, before it has a chance to become a blowout, and advertisers can get the most viewers per dollar spent and these dollars are spent well in advance of a game being played. Close games are always going to keep more viewers, but that's not a function of TV market size, either. It's a conspiracy theory that lacks legs.

 

Here's some legs:

 

 

Out of the 77 games played thus far, 43 have ended with a margin of 8 points or less. In other words, a single score differential. Seven games have needed overtime to determine a winner. Of the 16primetime games, 10 have ended with the losing team within a single score and two have needed overtime to be settled. The average point differential of primetime games thus far is 7.25 points. For the entire season of 77 games, the average point differential is 10.57. Seems high, right? But if you remove the 13 blowout games in which the winning team won by 20 or more points, the point differential for the remaining 64 games drops to 7.28.

http://www.thefixisin.net/nfl2015.html

 

 

 

There is no doubt gambling has an influence around the league. The fact that owners own stakes in fantasy league businesses and the NFL is so willing to accept their ad dollars is mind boggling to me. I predict Congress will get involved sooner or later.

 

Glad you like it. I threw that video in there because Beerball closed the other thread under the pretense of already having a similar thread. I think he closed it because of my video. Every thread on TBD that accuses the NFL of fixing games get closed, without fail.

[K-9]

I appreciate the food for thought. Even if I don't think much of it is feasible given what we've historically seen with ratings, broadcast revenues, and ad dollars.

 

More than anything, I attribute the closeness of games to the very parity you've mentioned previously and not to a conspiracy to artificially keep games close. In terms of raw physical athletic talent, very little separates the bad players from the good and good teams from bad, with the exception of QB play.

 

LOL at the idea that every thread mentioning gambling and fixes gets closed. I think Beerball is in on it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[MattM]

Didn't someone write a book back in the '90's about the NFL, gambling and fixed games? I could have sworn I thumbed a copy at a BN or Borders bargain bin about 15 years ago. Named names and games and was 200-300 pages long. With hindsight, wish I'd ponied up for it.

 

As my father has long advocated, they should consider lie detector tests for the referees on at least a random basis each year. If nothing else, it would make for some additional entertainment.....

[Storm Front]

This is just a guess, but such a dramatic win in the UK by the team most likey to become London's NFL team (the London Jaguars) surely helps foster a new fan base.

[Dark]

What if the criteria for such a penalty to be enforced is if multiple referees throw their flags? So at least two set of eyes had to see the penalty for it to be enforced. It would avoid the appearance of corruption and prevent egregious penalties like the one we saw in London.

[ToGoGo]

LOL at the idea that every thread mentioning gambling and fixes gets closed. I think Beerball is in on it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I can link you 6 or 7 closed threads since Week 2.

 

There's plenty of reason to believe this (and Sabrespace) are not really third party forums.

Edited October 27, 2015 by musichunch

[Punching Bag]

Didn't someone write a book back in the '90's about the NFL, gambling and fixed games? I could have sworn I thumbed a copy at a BN or Borders bargain bin about 15 years ago. Named names and games and was 200-300 pages long. With hindsight, wish I'd ponied up for it.

 

As my father has long advocated, they should consider lie detector tests for the referees on at least a random basis each year. If nothing else, it would make for some additional entertainment.....

I like the idea of a half time show featuring Zebras on lie detectors.

[OhDozeBills]

I think I dislike MIKE CAREY as much as Brady and Bilicheck. Blows my mind some of the %#^* that comes out of his mouth.

 

So, who knows this refs name on the PI call?!?!

[TC in St. Louis]

Bad call but I'm not going to point to that as an excuse for the loss. The loss was in a myriad of other bad plays, mistake,s poor tackles etc.

 

You're incorrect. They made a bunch of crap plays in a short period of time, and the rest of the game they ruled. The penalty ruined the 2nd best comeback in team history.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

related to blown Ref calls -

this one might not be much (I didn't see the game)

Curious call by referee hurts Ravens on first offensive drive

 

then later -

 

John Harbaugh: Chris Johnson's long run should've been blown dead

Edited October 27, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[26CornerBlitz]

@ProFootballTalk

Never mind the league memo telling teams not to, Ravens devote space on team website to detailing officiating gaffes http://wp.me/p14QSB-9TtL

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

@ProFootballTalk

Never mind the league memo telling teams not to, Ravens devote space on team website to detailing officiating gaffes http://wp.me/p14QSB-9TtL

good for them.

 

Has the NFL apologized for the Robey gaff yet?

[Dorkington]

good for them.

 

Has the NFL apologized for the Robey gaff yet?

Why should they? Bad calls happen in real speed. The WR flopped. The ref saw a defensive player putting his arms out, and the WR falling, so it's easy to call PI on that. Sometimes they get it wrong. Every team in every game has blown/missed calls happen. The Bills are not special.

[LB3]

Why should they? Bad calls happen in real speed. The WR flopped. The ref saw a defensive player putting his arms out, and the WR falling, so it's easy to call PI on that. Sometimes they get it wrong. Every team in every game has blown/missed calls happen. The Bills are not special.

All missed/blown calls are not created equal.

Edited October 27, 2015 by LBSeeBallLBGetBall

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Unfortunately you just have to get used to gut wrenching, ill timing horrible calls from the officials.

 

The NFL is the only sport where the officiating has such a big influence on the outcome of the game. It needs to change but as long as the ratings continue to skyrocket nothing will be changed.

Offensive PI calls have changed. We have see more of them this season.

[LB3]

Unfortunately you just have to get used to gut wrenching, ill timing horrible calls from the officials.

 

The NFL is the only sport where the officiating has such a big influence on the outcome of the game. It needs to change but as long as the ratings continue to skyrocket nothing will be changed.

I wouldn't say it's the only sport. Basketball officiating has a big influence as well.

[truth on hold]

Why should they? Bad calls happen in real speed. The WR flopped. The ref saw a defensive player putting his arms out, and the WR falling, so it's easy to call PI on that. Sometimes they get it wrong. Every team in every game has blown/missed calls happen. The Bills are not special.

They're paid not to throw flags for flops and WR protests. If not theyd throw flags every pass play

[Jobot]

Refs screwed the Jags on EJ's phantom roughing the passer call on 3rd down.

 

You can't hit the qb in the head. That was the correct call on the EJ hit.

 

It's a dumb rule and I'd prefer that type of play not be penalized. But it is the rule