Kiko vs. Shady

[BADOLBILZ]

 

There's zero chance shady would have played a down without a new deal. Zero. But don't let that get in the way of your crusade.

 

I know you've got some egg on your face over his lousy play after all the hype you put into him but that is the reason NOT to make the trade, not a justification for PAYING him.

[FireChan]

He's wrong. But time will show that.

Well we've certainly heard that before.

[Doc]

It's certainly a decent excuse. Not sure how it justifies his contract.

 

I like Shady, and I think he's a great player. However, Badol has been very consistent in his opinion of him. He said he'd be on a decline and I haven't seen any proof otherwise.

 

He got paid as one of the top RB's in the game...and then got injured. There's no need to justify anything.

[FireChan]

 

He got paid as one of the top RB's in the game...and then got injured. There's no need to justify anything.

He got the second most guaranteed money after a down year and after being traded for an injury-prone LB with one good season. And it seems to have not worked out, so far.

Edited September 29, 2015 by FireChan

[Kelly the Dog]

He has 43 carries for 146 yards - just below 3.4 ypc.

Williams has 24 carries for 186 yards (7.8 ypc) and his long is 41. Take away that play, and he has 23 for 145 yards -- still over 6 ypc.

It doesn't make the extension a good deal.

We likely won't know for a few years if it was worth it or not. The combination of Shady and Karlos is also a very valuable tandem. Shady actually looked quick and good on his first 3-4 times he touched the ball. Had about 18 yards on first three carries and the TD reception. I think he may have hurt himself on his leg kick after the TD, which was total unnecessary.

[BADOLBILZ]

He's wrong. But time will show that.

 

 

I hope you are right.

 

I just doubt your basis for belief in your opinion.

 

To be honest he kinda reminds me of Thurman Thomas after he lost his big play ability.

 

Fans expected him to revert back to being one of the best all purpose backs in the NFL for about 3 years before they came to grips with the fact that he was just a veteran presence.

 

That's not worth $8M per.

 

They could get 3.4 ypc and nagging injuries from Fred Jackson for $900K.

[Doc]

He got the second most guaranteed money after a down year and after being traded for an injury-prone LB with one good season. Seems like poor negotiating.

 

I'll take another "down year" like last year.

[FireChan]

 

I'll take another "down year" like last year.

Is that what he's on pace for?

[Doc]

Is that what he's on pace for?

 

No...because he's injured.

[FireChan]

 

No...because he's injured.

Sounds like we might not get a year like last year then.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

I'll take another "down year" like last year.

 

He's on pace for about 800 yards on about 3/4 of a yard below league average this year. Will that do for $8M?

[Kelly the Dog]

He's on pace for about 800 yards on about 3/4 of a yard below league average this year. Will that do for $8M?

And TT is on pace for 38 TDs, are you really going to extrapolate three games?

[FireChan]

And TT is on pace for 38 TDs, are you really going to extrapolate three games?

Maybe we should make a "Tracking CJ Spiller's 2k" topic redux.

[John from Riverside]

The hindsight that people are playing is amazing.....

 

- We had absolutely NO IDEA that Karlos WIlliams was going to be such a find....NONE....

[Deranged Rhino]

I know you've got some egg on your face over his lousy play after all the hype you put into him but that is the reason NOT to make the trade, not a justification for PAYING him.

First, no egg on my face. The Bills are 2-1, I'm a Bills fan first and foremost. Second, you've been hung up on the contract numbers but your logic is just wrong. Shady only had 1 million left on his deal, he wasn't going to step on the field (for any team) without a new contract. Whoever traded for him was going to have to redo his deal. That's reality.

 

You feel the Bills over paid -- time will tell -- but it's just pure fantasy to assume they could have traded for him and kept him on his current deal. That was never going to happen.

 

The other reasons you've talked about for not liking the deal (too many miles / being injury prone / not caring unless ESPN is around) are just opinions that I don't think have a basis in reality.

 

I hope you are right.

 

I just doubt your basis for belief in your opinion.

 

To be honest he kinda reminds me of Thurman Thomas after he lost his big play ability.

 

Fans expected him to revert back to being one of the best all purpose backs in the NFL for about 3 years before they came to grips with the fact that he was just a veteran presence.

 

That's not worth $8M per.

 

They could get 3.4 ypc and nagging injuries from Fred Jackson for $900K.

Again, you're making these conclusions after three games when he's playing on a bum wheel. You're reading into it what you want, but it doesn't make it so.

Well we've certainly heard that before.

We've heard that about McCoy before? No one was saying that before he put on a Bills helmet. That's why that kind of position is so funny to me. It's baseless. He finished 3rd in rushing last year playing for a coach who refused to use him in the red zone and behind a line that was in flux.

 

Shady is an elite talent. There is no denying that unless you really want to pick nits and/or invent reasons to throw shade.

He got paid as one of the top RB's in the game...and then got injured. There's no need to justify anything.

 

Yup.

Edited September 29, 2015 by GreggyT

[FireChan]

First, no egg on my face. The Bills are 2-1, I'm a Bills fan first and foremost. Second, you've been hung up on the contract numbers but your logic is just wrong. Shady only had 1 million left on his deal, he wasn't going to step on the field (for any team) without a new contract. Whoever traded for him was going to have to redo his deal. That's reality.

 

You feel the Bills over paid -- time will tell -- but it's just pure fantasy to assume they could have traded for him and kept him on his current deal. That was never going to happen.

 

The other reasons you've talked about for not liking the deal (too many miles / being injury prone / not caring unless ESPN is around) are just opinions that I don't think have a basis in reality.

 

Again, you're making these conclusions after three games when he's playing on a bum wheel. You're reading into it what you want, but it doesn't make it so.

 

We've heard that about McCoy before? No one was saying that before he put on a Bills helmet. That's why that kind of position is so funny to me. It's baseless. He finished 3rd in rushing last year playing for a coach who refused to use him in the red zone and behind a line that was in flux.

 

Shady is an elite talent. There is no denying that unless you really want to pick nits and/or invent reasons to throw shade.

 

Yup.

No no, I meant Badol has had an unpopular opinion, then we've heard, "time will tell," and he proved to be correct or at least have a very good case after that time has elapsed. None of this necessarily means that's he's on the money at this point, but I respect his knowledge enough to give it some gravitas.

[coffeebeens]

I don't post often most of the time it all gets covered by the great posters here . I believe Shady was acquired to take pressure off our young QB's when Shady is healthy he can get to the edge and catch it out of the backfield.

Tyrod has the luxury of having very skilled players to hand it off to and throw it to, it's brought up how calm he is I think some of it comes from the weapons that are at his disposal .

I loved Kiko but the young QB needs all the help he can get if Shady helps him with few good years I'll take it.

[Deranged Rhino]

No no, I meant Badol has had an unpopular opinion, then we've heard, "time will tell," and he proved to be correct or at least have a very good case after that time has elapsed. None of this necessarily means that's he's on the money at this point, but I respect his knowledge enough to give it some gravitas.

Ah, my bad.

 

I like Badol too. Disagreements between fans happen, no harm in it. The only time it's annoying is in the cases of obvious trolls who are just stirring up the **** to stir up the ****. I don't put his stance on McCoy in that category at all.

 

I just don't agree with it.

[Doc]

Sounds like we might not get a year like last year then.

 

He's on pace for about 800 yards on about 3/4 of a yard below league average this year. Will that do for $8M?

 

Yeah, we'll see if that's where he ends up. Not that the Bills could have known that he'd get a hammy injury. Although they did seem to know that Kiko was damaged goods.

[BmarvB]

As it stands now - Advantage: Bills, but keep in mind we're only in week 3. A lot can happen (and change) between now and week 16.

[FireChan]

 

Yeah, we'll see if that's where he ends up. Not that the Bills could have known that he'd get a hammy injury. Although they did seem to know that Kiko was damaged goods.

No reason to believe a RB with 800 carries in the last 3 years might have his body start to break down.

[John from Riverside]

 

He's on pace for about 800 yards on about 3/4 of a yard below league average this year. Will that do for $8M?

Its not my money

[Doc]

No reason to believe a RB with 800 carries in the last 3 years might have his body start to break down.

 

A hamstring injury is a sign of "breaking down"? And 800 carries over 3 years is 18 carries/game for him. Not excessive by any means.

[johnwalter]

the issue was never losing kiko, the issue was losing the cap space.

[John from Riverside]

the issue was never losing kiko, the issue was losing the cap space.

I know that people like to turn to the cap space argument as soon as Kiko went down again with yet another knee injury

 

We went for years with losing to "meh" records and carried tons of cap space that we couldnt even spend because we couldnt even lure top free agents to come to our team.......now they decided to spend some of it on a top 5 NFL rb

 

- People then get upset that a 5th round pick RB comes in and ends up looking like a stud.....like we are even supposed to know this guy is anything but a practice squad player at the time these decisions are being made

- Shady comes in and gets an injury that even young players get....its not season ending.....and the player has shown themself to be extremely durable so it was not a bad bet at the time the trade was made

 

Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea

[Dr. Who]

I know that people like to turn to the cap space argument as soon as Kiko went down again with yet another knee injury

 

We went for years with losing to "meh" records and carried tons of cap space that we couldnt even spend because we couldnt even lure top free agents to come to our team.......now they decided to spend some of it on a top 5 NFL rb

 

- People then get upset that a 5th round pick RB comes in and ends up looking like a stud.....like we are even supposed to know this guy is anything but a practice squad player at the time these decisions are being made

- Shady comes in and gets an injury that even young players get....its not season ending.....and the player has shown themself to be extremely durable so it was not a bad bet at the time the trade was made

 

Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea

Entirely reasonable analysis. It will be lost on those who would benefit from it most.

[johnwalter]

I know that people like to turn to the cap space argument as soon as Kiko went down again with yet another knee injury

 

We went for years with losing to "meh" records and carried tons of cap space that we couldnt even spend because we couldnt even lure top free agents to come to our team.......now they decided to spend some of it on a top 5 NFL rb

 

- People then get upset that a 5th round pick RB comes in and ends up looking like a stud.....like we are even supposed to know this guy is anything but a practice squad player at the time these decisions are being made

- Shady comes in and gets an injury that even young players get....its not season ending.....and the player has shown themself to be extremely durable so it was not a bad bet at the time the trade was made

 

Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea

 

i didn't turn to this argument after kiko went down and karlos lit it up - i've been saying this since the day we padded shady's contract because he was grumpy about coming to buffalo. obviously, i'm not "complaining because the team is trying to improve itself" -- that was a misguided and, frankly, poorly-thought-out accusation (see: straw man fallacy) -- i'm complaining because i believe that in trying to improve itself, the team did the opposite, setting itself back; i.e. team made a move that i disagree with, which seems like a legitimate cause for complaint, and a complaint that almost every poster on TBD has made at least once, if you would like me to comb your 18,000+ posts to locate such an example in your post history, i would be more than happy to do so.

 

for the record, i'm a huge whaley fan, i love and appreciate almost every move he's made. i just found this trade, and the contract restructuring in particular, to be ill-advised. because we're 2-1 and made several great moves in the offseason, i'm not allowed to question a move that was not-so-great? we have so many young, talented players, i'm disappointed this cap space is going to shady when we have guys like gilmore, bradham, and dareus (at the time) to sign.

[hondo in seattle]

When Whaley made the trade, the Bills looked this: great defense, good receivers, but no one to get the ball to the receivers. Good wideouts without a QB are almost worthless so how were we going to score points?

 

Since it didn't look like we were going to have a good QB to build a passing game around, Whaley went out and got us a good RB to build a running game round. It was an entirely reasonable thing to do at the time, even considering the contract DW gave Shady.

 

Hindsight is 20-20. Maybe Karlos Williams with Freddy backing him up would have been a better (definitely cheaper) option than Shady/KW especially given Shady's injury. Let's see how the season unfolds before making that judgment. But at the time of the trade, it seemed very smart to me.

[Doc]

i didn't turn to this argument after kiko went down and karlos lit it up - i've been saying this since the day we padded shady's contract because he was grumpy about coming to buffalo. obviously, i'm not "complaining because the team is trying to improve itself" -- that was a misguided and, frankly, poorly-thought-out accusation (see: straw man fallacy) -- i'm complaining because i believe that in trying to improve itself, the team did the opposite, setting itself back; i.e. team made a move that i disagree with, which seems like a legitimate cause for complaint, and a complaint that almost every poster on TBD has made at least once, if you would like me to comb your 18,000+ posts to locate such an example in your post history, i would be more than happy to do so.

 

for the record, i'm a huge whaley fan, i love and appreciate almost every move he's made. i just found this trade, and the contract restructuring in particular, to be ill-advised. because we're 2-1 and made several great moves in the offseason, i'm not allowed to question a move that was not-so-great? we have so many young, talented players, i'm disappointed this cap space is going to shady when we have guys like gilmore, bradham, and dareus (at the time) to sign.

 

There has been a lot of hand-wringing over nothing. According to Spotrac, the Bills still have $9.4M in cap space this season, which can be carried over to next year if they don't extend Bradham. Dareus was already extended. Gilmore is under contract next year with a base salary of $11M and that will be reduced if/when they extend him. Harvin has a base salary of $9M which he won't see. Mario has an $11.5M base salary that they can/may restructure. The Bills knew all this prior to giving Shady his deal.

[John from Riverside]

 

i didn't turn to this argument after kiko went down and karlos lit it up - i've been saying this since the day we padded shady's contract because he was grumpy about coming to buffalo. obviously, i'm not "complaining because the team is trying to improve itself" -- that was a misguided and, frankly, poorly-thought-out accusation (see: straw man fallacy) -- i'm complaining because i believe that in trying to improve itself, the team did the opposite, setting itself back; i.e. team made a move that i disagree with, which seems like a legitimate cause for complaint, and a complaint that almost every poster on TBD has made at least once, if you would like me to comb your 18,000+ posts to locate such an example in your post history, i would be more than happy to do so.

 

for the record, i'm a huge whaley fan, i love and appreciate almost every move he's made. i just found this trade, and the contract restructuring in particular, to be ill-advised. because we're 2-1 and made several great moves in the offseason, i'm not allowed to question a move that was not-so-great? we have so many young, talented players, i'm disappointed this cap space is going to shady when we have guys like gilmore, bradham, and dareus (at the time) to sign.

OK....I will bite. Exactly how did the team set itself back?

 

And yes every poster has something in their history that they didnt agree with that the team did (some more then others so I will save you all that work)

[johnwalter]

I know that people like to turn to the cap space argument as soon as Kiko went down again with yet another knee injury

 

We went for years with losing to "meh" records and carried tons of cap space that we couldnt even spend because we couldnt even lure top free agents to come to our team.......now they decided to spend some of it on a top 5 NFL rb

 

- People then get upset that a 5th round pick RB comes in and ends up looking like a stud.....like we are even supposed to know this guy is anything but a practice squad player at the time these decisions are being made

- Shady comes in and gets an injury that even young players get....its not season ending.....and the player has shown themself to be extremely durable so it was not a bad bet at the time the trade was made

 

Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea

 

When Whaley made the trade, the Bills looked this: great defense, good receivers, but no one to get the ball to the receivers. Good wideouts without a QB are almost worthless so how were we going to score points?

 

Since it didn't look like we were going to have a good QB to build a passing game around, Whaley went out and got us a good RB to build a running game round. It was an entirely reasonable thing to do at the time, even considering the contract DW gave Shady.

 

Hindsight is 20-20. Maybe Karlos Williams with Freddy backing him up would have been a better (definitely cheaper) option than Shady/KW especially given Shady's injury. Let's see how the season unfolds before making that judgment. But at the time of the trade, it seemed very smart to me.

 

 

There has been a lot of hand-wringing over nothing. According to Spotrac, the Bills still have $9.4M in cap space this season, which can be carried over to next year if they don't extend Bradham. Dareus was already extended. Gilmore is under contract next year with a base salary of $11M and that will be reduced if/when they extend him. Harvin has a base salary of $9M which he won't see. Mario has an $11.5M base salary that they can/may restructure. The Bills knew all this prior to giving Shady his deal.

 

 

certainly, i may prove to be wrong, lord know it has happened many times before. i got confrontational because i found the response disrespectful; instead of going with something like "i disagree with you," hemet went with "Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea," which i found condescending, and so fired back.

 

Entirely reasonable analysis. It will be lost on those who would benefit from it most.

 

i know this is the internet, and this kind of stuff flies, but do TBD a favor and find something more constructive to post.

[FireChan]

 

There has been a lot of hand-wringing over nothing. According to Spotrac, the Bills still have $9.4M in cap space this season, which can be carried over to next year if they don't extend Bradham. Dareus was already extended. Gilmore is under contract next year with a base salary of $11M and that will be reduced if/when they extend him. Harvin has a base salary of $9M which he won't see. Mario has an $11.5M base salary that they can/may restructure. The Bills knew all this prior to giving Shady his deal.

I think it could be argued that Harvin has been a bigger factor for the Bills this year than McCoy. I wouldn't call him "not seeing" his contract, nothing.

[John from Riverside]

 

 

 

 

certainly, i may prove to be wrong, lord know it has happened many times before. i got confrontational because i found the response disrespectful; instead of going with something like "i disagree with you," hemet went with "Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea," which i found condescending, and so fired back

 

The internet world thanks you for coming to its protection........

 

 

i know this is the internet, and this kind of stuff flies, but do TBD a favor and find something more constructive to post.

 

Pot meet kettle. Should I come to his protection for simply agreeing with a post?

I think it could be argued that Harvin has been a bigger factor for the Bills this year than McCoy. I wouldn't call him "not seeing" his contract, nothing.

I still think there is a chance Harvin is brought back......we might waive good bye to Glenn and rework Harvin

[FireChan]

I know that people like to turn to the cap space argument as soon as Kiko went down again with yet another knee injury

 

We went for years with losing to "meh" records and carried tons of cap space that we couldnt even spend because we couldnt even lure top free agents to come to our team.......now they decided to spend some of it on a top 5 NFL rb

 

- People then get upset that a 5th round pick RB comes in and ends up looking like a stud.....like we are even supposed to know this guy is anything but a practice squad player at the time these decisions are being made

- Shady comes in and gets an injury that even young players get....its not season ending.....and the player has shown themself to be extremely durable so it was not a bad bet at the time the trade was made

 

Stop complaining because the team is trying to improve itself....that is the whole idea

You'd be a great Dolphins fan. Or Redskins.

[johnwalter]

OK....I will bite. Exactly how did the team set itself back?

 

And yes every poster has something in their history that they didnt agree with that the team did (some more then others so I will save you all that work)

 

i believe that football is, at some level, a game of allocating the salary cap. many people feel that the salary cap is unimpoartant and can always be manipulated, i am not of that camp. i am arguing that the team set itself back by allocating a massive chunk of cap space to a player i believe has a pretty good chance of not contributing to the level of his cap hit.

 

the set-back here is opportunity cost: buffalo may or may not end up needing that cap space (hell - even tyrod is starting to look like he may cost us a few dollars). the point is that teams never know if they're going to need the space and (i'm arguing) should not restrict their ability to sign/resign CBs, QBs, OTs, etc by dropping 8.5MM a year on a running back.

 

per the buffalo news:

2016: $4.8 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $7.675 million.

2017: $6 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $8.875 million.

2018: $6.075 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $8.95 million.

2019: $6.175 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $9.05 million.

far too much for an RB in today's NFL, in my opinion.

[John from Riverside]

 

 

i believe that football is, at some level, a game of allocating the salary cap. many people feel that the salary cap is unimpoartant and can always be manipulated, i am not of that camp. i am arguing that the team set itself back by allocating a massive chunk of cap space to a player i believe has a pretty good chance of not contributing to the level of his cap hit.

 

the set-back here is opportunity cost: buffalo may or may not end up needing that cap space (hell - even tyrod is starting to look like he may cost us a few dollars). the point is that teams never know if they're going to need the space and (i'm arguing) should not restrict their ability to sign/resign CBs, QBs, OTs, etc by dropping 8.5MM a year on a running back.

 

per the buffalo news:

2016: $4.8 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $7.675 million.

2017: $6 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $8.875 million.

2018: $6.075 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $8.95 million.

2019: $6.175 million base salary, $250,000 workout bonus. Cap hit: $9.05 million.

far too much for an RB in today's NFL, in my opinion.

 

Its not your money.....and so far there have been no signs that it is holding the team back. We did in fact get Darius under contract and are carrying money over into next years cap

 

Next?

[FireChan]

Its not your money.....and so far there have been no signs that it is holding the team back. We did in fact get Darius under contract and are carrying money over into next years cap

 

Next?

The Albert Haynesworth defense!

[johnwalter]

The internet world thanks you for coming to its protection........

 

Pot meet kettle. Should I come to his protection for simply agreeing with a post?

 

F*ck the internet, I was coming to my own protection.

He was not simply agreeing with your post, he agreed with your post, then tossed in that it would be "lost on me."

 

Its not your money.....and so far there have been no signs that it is holding the team back. We did in fact get Darius under contract and are carrying money over into next years cap

 

Next?

 

Measuring a five-year contract's impact on a team's ability to make signings after one offseason is both premature and short-sighted. And again, the point is not that the Bills will certainly need that space, the point is that they might, and should keep their options open in case they do.

 

----

 

I would like to note that I have always enjoyed your posts and like you quite a bit. This is one of my first TBD arguments and I apologize if I got a little carried away.

Edited September 29, 2015 by johnwalter

[John from Riverside]

You'd be a great Dolphins fan. Or Redskins.

You right I certainly would....I would be a great fan of any team I chose.......its lucky for my I like pain and chose the bills

 

Now onto whatever it was that you meant by that

 

I assume that it meant that I would love those teams because they spent a lot of money on players. You spend in certain areas and you draft well. That is the underlying tone to all of this......Whaley is DRAFTING WELL to go along with spending money at key positions.......

 

You look at the scheme you want to run....you look at where you have drafted well......you look at where you are getting old......and then you take advantage of opportunities as they come up. I find no fault with Doug Whaley jumping on the opportunity to get a what has been ultra productive, durable, versitle in both run and pass, and underrated in blitz pickup.

 

I think that the bills targeted Carlos Hyde the year before.....and they probably had their eyes on a RB in this draft IF the Shady thing would not have happened.......as it stands they were able to be patient AND they might have struck gold with Karlos Williams.

The Albert Haynesworth defense!

OMG.....really? Is that the best you can come up with?

[FireChan]

You right I certainly would....I would be a great fan of any team I chose.......its lucky for my I like pain and chose the bills

 

Now onto whatever it was that you meant by that

 

I assume that it meant that I would love those teams because they spent a lot of money on players. You spend in certain areas and you draft well. That is the underlying tone to all of this......Whaley is DRAFTING WELL to go along with spending money at key positions.......

 

You look at the scheme you want to run....you look at where you have drafted well......you look at where you are getting old......and then you take advantage of opportunities as they come up. I find no fault with Doug Whaley jumping on the opportunity to get a what has been ultra productive, durable, versitle in both run and pass, and underrated in blitz pickup.

 

I think that the bills targeted Carlos Hyde the year before.....and they probably had their eyes on a RB in this draft IF the Shady thing would not have happened.......as it stands they were able to be patient AND they might have struck gold with Karlos Williams.

OMG.....really? Is that the best you can come up with?

Not quite. It was more that you could pull your "it's not my money and stop complaining about them trying to improve the team" defense on every single overpriced garbage FA contract ever. Albert came to mind. Suh looks to be going that way. If some fan said "Suh is a non-factor, it was a bad move to give him half of South Beach for him to free-lance and suck" you could come right back with, "it's not my money and stop complaining about them trying to improve the team."

 

That's why you'd be great. You can't lose. They're trying and you aren't bankrolling them.