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Cassel's "Ceiling"


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Cassel ain't the difference between winning and losing.

What? If we're in a position, mid season, where a switch to Cassel is necessary, the difference in ability may be the difference between winning and losing. And a QB switch means one QB is playing like crap, which directly correlates to losing games. Or does having upgrades at QB not matter in today's NFL and no one told me?

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Cassel ain't the difference between winning and losing.

I guess this sums up why I don't really care. There isn't a QB on the roster that is a difference in winning or losing (assuming they take care of the football). This coaching staff should be smart enough to know that and they will put these guys in position to take care of it.
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There seems to be a narrative out there that Cassel is an uninspiring, "game manager" who might be able to lead the team to 10-6 if he can manage to keep from tripping over his own shoelaces.

 

In Cassel's good years (08, '10) his QB rating was top 10, and his combined TD/INT ration was 48/18. He made a Pro Bowl. The '08 team scored 410 points and the '10 team scored 366 points.

 

His '08 team had Sammy Morris as a lead RB, with a strong WR combo (Welker in his prime, still explosive Randy Moss).

 

His '10 team had RB depth (Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles) and mediocre receivers (Bowe/Moeaki).

 

This is the best offensive personnel Cassel has ever played with. It is certainly the best defense. He is healthy and is not playing for Leslie Frazier, Todd Haley, or Romeo Crennel.

 

There is a ton of similarity in Cassel's stat lines to Alex Smith's recent years in SF/KC.

 

So while I understand that the YPA might not be high, Cassel is not the same as Orton, or Fitzpatrick, or other retread QBs. Smith is a better comp and the Bills would have won 12-13 games last year with Alex Smith as their QB.

 

I don't see why Cassel can't put up a 95 rating, a 3-1 TD/INT ratio, while keeping his attempts at around 30 per game. If that is "game manager" it will still be a Pro Bowl stat line, and the team will win 12 games at minimum.

 

 

 

 

If that happens I will be pleased.

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I guess this sums up why I don't really care. There isn't a QB on the roster that is a difference in winning or losing (assuming they take care of the football). This coaching staff should be smart enough to know that and they will put these guys in position to take care of it.

Agreed. I just could see Manuel or Taylor taking the offense to another level and improving as players under Roman.

 

Cassel is what he is at this point. And good for him, because he's had a great career for a 7th round college backup.

If he was then I'd be pretty concerned about 33 wins in 72 starts. 23/57 if you take off his 10 wins off from his pats stint (the team that was 16-0 the prior year)

There is some misnomer that Cassel is the safe choice. EJ actually has a better int rate than Cassel.

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There seems to be a narrative out there that Cassel is an uninspiring, "game manager" who might be able to lead the team to 10-6 if he can manage to keep from tripping over his own shoelaces.

 

In Cassel's good years (08, '10) his QB rating was top 10, and his combined TD/INT ration was 48/18. He made a Pro Bowl. The '08 team scored 410 points and the '10 team scored 366 points.

 

His '08 team had Sammy Morris as a lead RB, with a strong WR combo (Welker in his prime, still explosive Randy Moss).

 

His '10 team had RB depth (Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles) and mediocre receivers (Bowe/Moeaki).

 

This is the best offensive personnel Cassel has ever played with. It is certainly the best defense. He is healthy and is not playing for Leslie Frazier, Todd Haley, or Romeo Crennel.

 

There is a ton of similarity in Cassel's stat lines to Alex Smith's recent years in SF/KC.

 

So while I understand that the YPA might not be high, Cassel is not the same as Orton, or Fitzpatrick, or other retread QBs. Smith is a better comp and the Bills would have won 12-13 games last year with Alex Smith as their QB.

 

I don't see why Cassel can't put up a 95 rating, a 3-1 TD/INT ratio, while keeping his attempts at around 30 per game. If that is "game manager" it will still be a Pro Bowl stat line, and the team will win 12 games at minimum.

 

 

 

 

 

I couldn't agree with you more! Nice brief analysis!

 

I'm expecting Cassel to post his best season as a pro, and unless he or McCoy get injured, I expect a division win this season.

 

This will finally be a tough division for the Pats, we'll see if they're up to it. After Brady though, IMO their talent simply isn't that good. Granted, Brady's huge, but he may not be getting any shakes from the officiating this season either.

 

As well, if both Cassel and McCoy stay healthy, and assuming we do win the division, I'm expecting homefield advantage as either a 1st or 2nd seed, and I'd say that the odds for a trip to the SB are very very good.

 

There's a greater basis for my beliefs on that, a more extensive analysis that I won't post.

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The thing about a tougher division, which i agree is coming. Is that those two divisional games can wear a team down. and thinkin long term. teams populate their roster with players to win the division. Whether it be the run game or pass game. and then how you defend those. Then of course the most recent trend of TEs being the x factor

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  • 1 month later...

After listening to arguments about the QB situation ad nausium, I think Matt Cassel HAS to either STAY on the team and compete THROUGHOUT training camp and preseason or be the guy you start out of all 3 of these players. For everyone writing he's on the roster bubble, or that he wasn't good in OTAs, which reporters or practices are you referring to? All I heard from Sal was that despite a bad day or two towards the end of practice, he was commanding the huddle the best albeit not creatively. I want EJ to be the guy but I just don't think you can go into the season without 1 drop back style QB on your roster with experience. At the very least he's gotta stay on the team.

For what it's worth, Cassel had some memorable years and is our only QB on the roster to have ever made the Pro Bowl. Scott Pioli after drafting him with the Patriots wanted him on the Chiefs when he moved there. How in the world can you suggest cutting the guy even before the pads are on? Yeah, he had some TERRIBLE years. So did Kyle Orton and although the Orton never played with passion in his heart for this team, he managed to bring us to a 9-7 record. Despite what people may write about older QBs being set in their ways with no opportunity to have a resurgence, they are far less likely to continue the old habits where they risk turnovers. Roman thinks he can win with one of these QBs, and I just don't think you can afford to risk a game manager style QB being cut from the team when we have no idea whether EJ can put his newly acquired mechanics to use in a real game situation or whether his "fight or flight" response will kick into effect based upon prior stress situations which becomes ingrained deeply in the brain.

Looking at the film on Cassel, he is by far the safest bet at QB. I want EJ to be the guy but if I was a HC or OC I would definitely want to see what Cassel has to bring to the table in training camp. The guy seems to have a passion to be a starter and finish his career with a legacy. He just isn't as bad as everybody stating he is. On all three past teams, when given time with at least an average offensive line, he played well. Watch most of those youtube videos that mock Matt Cassel and you will see an offensive line that is playing horribly and subsequently Cassel is forced to try and be a mobile QB. When given average time with the ball, he plays well, not elite. When given extra time, he plays GREAT.

Besides that Patriots team in 2008, Cassel never had an elite squad around him and made the pro bowl. It's worth something, and in my opinion I think the Bills made the right choice trading for Cassel.

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Let's look at this a little bit more realistically. If you are a coach with your reputation on the line, and EVERYBODY is waiting for you to fail -- do you go with an experienced QB that has made the playoffs with less talent and made a pro bowl in his career -or- do you go with one of 2 guys that are largely unproven and young? Rex Ryan or Greg Roman wanted Cassel -- that's telling that they think they can win with him. I just don't think as a coach you can afford to risk everything when you have a veteran on your team that was successful in his career at one point. Unless in training camp and the preseason one of the younger guys is head and shoulders above Cassel in terms of production, do you risk your career for young QBs that have never delivered? If at the end of camp it's not too obvious who is better I think the coaches have no choice but to start Matt Cassel because at least he has been successful with less talent on the offensive roster.

 

This whole idea that Greg Roman and Rex Ryan desperately want a mobile QB at all costs couldn't be any further from the truth in my idea. I think it is something that they find unique and advantageous in terms of creating an offensive gameplan to throw off the defense, but I don't think they would be willing to give up a guy who is not going to turnover the ball and can place the ball in all of the talented offensive receivers' hands. The defense is far too good to risk it with a guy who can run and throw off defensive coordinators but makes poor decisions . In the very limited gameplay on Tyrod Taylor, he did just that. EJ Manuel also made his fair share of mistakes. But the problem is these guys didn't make enough mistakes over enough games for adequate judgment on their overall play.

 

As bad as Cassel has been at times, he has been fantastic in other years that really make him a tantalizing type of QB. I think Tyrod Taylor is a great guy with phenomenal talent, but I think this competition boils down to whether EJ Manuel has shown enough improvement to be far better than the rest. EJ Manuel is your first round pick in 2013 and you can't just give up on him unless he hasn't shown improvement throughout the preseason. If he can't get that offense moving in preseason, like last season, -- they must start Cassel and don't have any choice.

 

People need to start calling a spade a spade and realize that EJ Manuel is now a veteran -- it's his 3rd year and he has to show complete mastery of the game throughout this training camp and preseason. I really hope the best guy wins (whoever that may be) but to say Cassel is old and washed up is utter nonsense. Expect to see above average play from him with these offensive weapons at his disposal. His best football would SURELY be ahead of him with this team. Too many good wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends for him with an offensive line that should be adequate at the very least. He would also have a defense that is going to give him more chances to have that ball in his hands which means less having to play desperate football which he often had to play with the Chiefs and Vikings.

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Cassel being our starter is only a bad thing. Fortunately it is an Alex Smith / Brad Johnson / Trent Dilfer thing, and not impending doom.

 

But anybody who isn't banking on EJ getting a shot and being the guy as being our best option in 2015 is lowering the ceiling. Not quite to the GEICO tiny house ad level, but too low for my taste. I have trouble with EJ getting benched last year, and am hopeful he will be ready to step up and be at least "pretty good" to Cassel's "not all bad".

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