Was the trade for Watkins worth it?

[Kelly the Dog]

I get that. I just don't understand why so many people fail to see the distinction between an objective analysis of the trade as it relates to the overall value of the assets in play and the subjective analysis based on the value relative to what a particular GM would have done with it.

 

Let me illustrate with an analogy:

 

If you invested $100k into a low risk investment with a high minimum buy in that gives you a 3% annual return, it's okay, but that's not a great investment. The fact that your 2nd option was to put 2/3 of that money into a high risk stock that plummeted doesn't make your investment great, it just means you made the better of two less than ideal moves that you yourself decided were your best two options. If there were plenty of popular mutual funds with lower minimum buy ins that you could have invested in that got a 7%-10% return and you passed on them for the other then your investment was a poor one despite being better than the other ****ty investment you were going to make.

 

To be clear, I'm not suggesting Sammy is the football equivalent of the 3% return in this analogy, just illustrating how measuring one choice by another without considering the other alternatives can paint a false picture of the wisdom and value of that choice.

I don't think any of that even entered into the decision. 50% of all first round draft choices are busts. Each year there are only 0-2 or so sure things. Can't miss players. Sure stars. They don't come around. A can't miss player is a WAY different selection than a guy who is expected to go in the top five or ten. Last year, Watkins was the only can't miss. This year there wasn't any. 2013 there wasn't any. Not one. That's what makes this trade different. You're getting a can't miss guy. Everyone thought that. No one thought OBD was a can't miss guy. No one thought Evans was a can't miss guy. That is worth a tremendous amount. They knew what they were getting. That rarely happens.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Kelly the Dog

[Rob's House]

They think their assessments, after 13 months of compiling and re-compiling data and reports, interviewing and re-interviewing every key figure in a player's career, along with the nearly 200 man-years of experience in player evaluation among them, serves to provide the best foundation to base their projections on AT THE TIME. They know when these reports are compared to others in the arena and consensuses are reached, grades unanimously assigned, and these grades point to an elite talent level that far surpasses others in the same class, regardless of position, they know just how rare a particular player is compared to the thousands they've evaluated over the decades. There were two such players last year. Sammy Watkins was one of them.

 

They don't "audition their evaluations" in hindsight. They don't have that luxury. And that's the point. They auditioned their evaluations all throughout their high-school and college careers and those "auditions" served to inform the scouting assessment. NOTHING about these evaluations was wrong based on the results, on the field, AT THE TIME. Far from it. Everything they did on the field PRECLUDED the evaluation in the first place.

 

Now you and others are free to pronounce successes and failures in those assessments after one year in the league all you want. It's utterly short-sighted, even unwise, but certainly your prerogative.

 

But I find the contempt for the process around here interesting.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I never said anything about auditions.

 

I don't think any of that even entered into the decision. 50% of all first round draft choices are busts. Each year there are only 0-2 or so sure things. Can't miss players. Sure stars. They don't come around. A can't miss player is a WAY different selection than a guy who is expected to go in the top five or ten. Last year, Watkins was the only can't miss. This year there wasn't any. 2013 there wasn't any. Not one. That's what makes this trade different. You're getting a can't miss guy. Everyone thought that. No one thought OBD was a can't miss guy. No one thought Evans was a can't miss guy. That is worth a tremendous amount. They knew what they were getting. That rarely happens.

I'm not arguing that point. I'm arguing that Ebron is not the standard by which that trade/pick should be judged. Edited May 1, 2015 by Rob's House

[Kelly the Dog]

They think their assessments, after 13 months of compiling and re-compiling data and reports, interviewing and re-interviewing every key figure in a player's career, along with the nearly 200 man-years of experience in player evaluation among them, serves to provide the best foundation to base their projections on AT THE TIME. They know when these reports are compared to others in the arena and consensuses are reached, grades unanimously assigned, and these grades point to an elite talent level that far surpasses others in the same class, regardless of position, they know just how rare a particular player is compared to the thousands they've evaluated over the decades. There were two such players last year. Sammy Watkins was one of them.

 

I usually include Greg Robinson in that draft, too, as a can't miss player. But I also think there were some detractors to him. Same with Mack. There were no such detractors I know of with Watkins.

[OCinBuffalo]

Given the draft that I just watched, tonight, that ended 48 minutes ago? That...abortion?

 

The answer is: of course. That was the worst draft all of us have ever seen, and we know it, unless we are in denial, seriously deluded, or beligerently refusing to accept reality because we are clinging to the anti-Watkins argument we made last year on draft day.

 

How can you come away from that top ten...which was a joke, realize that there really wasn't any difference between pick #2, and pick #32(damn Pats got one of the best players IMO), and tell me that I am supposed to cry about being denied the opportunity to pick from this menagerie of JAGs?

 

Come on. Every pick in the 1st was a F'ing reach. The "highlights" were a joke. Over and over the other guy does nothing/falls down...and that's a "highlight" of the player we are talking about?

 

It's time for the "Watkins trade bad" people to hang it up. Eespecially given that calvalcade of average I just saw. When the #3 overall, LT..."is probably going to move to G in the NFL"? Like I said: time to hang it up, lay it down, move on, do whatever you have to, because it's over.

Edited May 1, 2015 by OCinBuffalo

[K-9]

I never said anything about auditions.

I'm not arguing that point. I'm arguing that Ebron is not the standard by which that trade/pick should be judged.

Now that's funny. I read "auditing" as "auditioning." Been a long day.

 

My point remains, though. Every bit of it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Given the draft that I just watched, tonight, that ended 48 minutes ago? That...abortion?

 

The answer is: of course. That was the worst draft all of us have ever seen, and we know it, unless we are in denial, seriously deluded, or beligerently refusing to accept reality because we are clinging to the anti-Watkins argument we made last year on draft day.

 

How can you come away from that top ten...which was a joke, realize that there really wasn't any difference between pick #2, and pick #32(damn Pats got one of the best players IMO), and tell me that I am supposed to cry about being denied the opportunity to pick from this menagerie of JAGs?

 

Come on. Every pick in the 1st was a F'ing reach. The "highlights" were a joke. Over and over the other guy does nothing/falls down...and that's a "highlight" of the player we are talking about?

 

It's time the "Watkins trade bad" people to hang it up. Eespecially given that calvalcade of average I just saw. When the #3 overall, LT..."is probably going to move to G in the NFL"? Like I said: time to hang it up, lay it down, move on, do whatever you have to, because it's over.

Agreed.

 

If there is one thing that points to a weak draft more than anything else, it's the lack of trades. Teams have known for over a year that this draft was going to be low in overall talent and it showed tonight with the lack of movement.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Rob's House]

Now that's funny. I read "auditing" as "auditioning." Been a long day.

 

My point remains, though. Every bit of it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I'm not sure how saying that hindsight is the only way of knowing whether your predictions were right is showing contempt for the process nor do I see how it is a declaration that the jury's in after one season, but if you want to let every bit of those points stand then so be it.

[Kelly the Dog]

I never said anything about auditions.

I'm not arguing that point. I'm arguing that Ebron is not the standard by which that trade/pick should be judged.

How can you not consider that when evaluating how it should be judged? It's not just one thing. That to me is the biggest factor it should be judged by. Just using whatever standard you are using will only be one way of looking at it, too.

[Rob's House]

How can you not consider that when evaluating how it should be judged? It's not just one thing. That to me is the biggest factor it should be judged by. Just using whatever standard you are using will only be one way of looking at it, too.

I don't know how else to explain it; I've analogized it to the point of exhaustion. I know you're a smart guy. If you still don't get it it's because you don't want to.

[K-9]

I usually include Greg Robinson in that draft, too, as a can't miss player. But I also think there were some detractors to him. Same with Mack. There were no such detractors I know of with Watkins.

IIRC, the thinking at the time was that Clowney, Sammy, Robinson were at the top of most boards. Can't say how many teams exactly, but I know SD, Jax, Buffalo, TB, Pitt, and Philly definitely had Clowney/Sammy or Sammy/Clowney. And a couple guys, not easily given to hyperbole, thought Sammy was the best WR prospect since C. Johnson. Jax really belabored their choice, too. But knowing the premium on QBs and the Gabbert fiasco, they HAD to take Bortles.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[OCinBuffalo]

If there is one thing that points to a weak draft more than anything else, it's the lack of trades. Teams have known for over a year that this draft was going to be low in overall talent and it showed tonight with the lack of movement.

 

GO BILLS!!!

The other indicators:

 

1. 2 RBs taken in the 1st. As I said in my "worst draft ever thread", mediocrity flattens out the normal positional value curve. Taking a JAG LT then == taking a stud RB...because their value is the same. Might as well go with the skill player, on the chance he becomes an impact player. And speaking of trades, I believe the only trade up was for a RB, no? There's your underscore.

 

2. The QBs. When there's no real difference between 2 and 32? You might as well take the QBs immediately, because hitting on a QB is so valuable, that you should take every shot you can. Note: Reasonable means staying put at your spot and drafting a QB. Reasonable does not mean: trading up to draft JP Losman.

How can you not consider that when evaluating how it should be judged? It's not just one thing. That to me is the biggest factor it should be judged by. Just using whatever standard you are using will only be one way of looking at it, too.

We only need 1 standard:

 

The 2015 draft sucks.

 

Therefore, getting resources in the 2014 draft, in return for resources in the 2015? Easy. The Browns have been raped. I'm going to their board, so I can observe the butthurt, and gain lulz. Perhaps I will even login to one of my troll accounts and start twisting the knife? But...I'm tired...and I literally have months of enjoyment ahead.

[K-9]

I'm not sure how saying that hindsight is the only way of knowing whether your predictions were right is showing contempt for the process nor do I see how it is a declaration that the jury's in after one season, but if you want to let every bit of those points stand then so be it.

Please point to all the pre-draft posts by you and others last year leading up to the draft that argued that the consensus agreement in the scouting community that Sammy Watkins was an elite talent and one of the top two players in the deepest draft in decades, was wrong. Do that and I might alter my view that using hindsight to criticize those who never have the luxury of using that to inform decisions is something other than contempt for their process.

 

The whole tenor of this thread by those that disagree with the trade is that the jury is indeed in after only one year.

 

So yeah, I'll let every bit of my earlier points stand.

 

GO BILLS!!!

The other indicators:

 

1. 2 RBs taken in the 1st. As I said in my "worst draft ever thread", mediocrity flattens out the normal positional value curve. Taking a JAG LT then == taking a stud RB...because their value is the same. Might as well go with the skill player, on the chance he becomes an impact player. And speaking of trades, I believe the only trade up was for a RB, no? There's your underscore.

 

2. The QBs. When there's no real difference between 2 and 32? You might as well take the QBs immediately, because hitting on a QB is so valuable, that you should take every shot you can. Note: Reasonable means staying put at your spot and drafting a QB. Reasonable does not mean: trading up to draft JP Losman.

 

Can't argue any of this. Good points, all.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Rob's House]

Please point to all the pre-draft posts by you and others last year leading up to the draft that argued that the consensus agreement in the scouting community that Sammy Watkins was an elite talent and one of the top two players in the deepest draft in decades, was wrong. Do that and I might alter my view that using hindsight to criticize those who never have the luxury of using that to inform decisions is something other than contempt for their process.

 

The whole tenor of this thread by those that disagree with the trade is that the jury is indeed in after only one year.

 

So yeah, I'll let every bit of my earlier points stand.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

If you're going to reply to me please try to say something that at least vaguely addresses something I said.

 

My first post in this thread stated that I'd wait til the end of the season to judge the trade.

 

And this "hindsight" business is getting a bit ridiculous. I stated a truism: you can only judge the accuracy of your evaluations with the benefit of hindsight. Care to explain what part of that you take issue with?

 

And as an aside, to use your criteria, Matt Millen was a great GM because the busts he drafted were thought to be good prospects when he drafted them.

[Kelly the Dog]

IIRC, the thinking at the time was that Clowney, Sammy, Robinson were at the top of most boards. Can't say how many teams exactly, but I know SD, Jax, Buffalo, TB, Pitt, and Philly definitely had Clowney/Sammy or Sammy/Clowney. And a couple guys, not easily given to hyperbole, thought Sammy was the best WR prospect since C. Johnson. Jax really belabored their choice, too. But knowing the premium on QBs and the Gabbert fiasco, they HAD to take Bortles.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Absolutely. But Clowney was never thought of as a can't miss guy. He may have been the best player in the draft, and a good #1, but you know better than me that doesn't mean can't miss. No one thought Clowney was a can't miss. When you said there were two last year I thought you must have been talking about Robinson. Because he was the guy that I most saw as can't miss, but I also thought I saw a few respectable people that were not entirely sold on Robinson. Other times I have mentioned this I note the discrepancy. Some thought Robinson was can't miss but not everyone. Mack was super highly regarded but played at the small school. Again, this year and 2013 there were no can't miss guys.

I don't know how else to explain it; I've analogized it to the point of exhaustion. I know you're a smart guy. If you still don't get it it's because you don't want to.

I admit I have not read everything you posted on it, so I don't know. I do, however, very much respect you as a poster, and thinker, so I am not dismissing your stance. When I have time I will go back and see if I can figure out what you mean.

[T master]

I love Sammy as a player & his ability & what he brings to the team , but what the Bills said they have wanted for the past 2 + seasons "A Big Receiver Thats Open When He's Not Open" is not what Sammy is .

 

Given what Buddy & Whaley said & the out put of the receiver class last year & EJ being our "QB of the future" I thought they would have went after there big receiver & some one EJ would have been familiar & comfortable with to bring EJ along .

 

That person being Kelvin Benjamin . He did great in his rookie season , is the BIG receiver they were saying they wanted , a great red zone threat , & a player they wouldn't have had to give up this years 2015 first round pick for .

 

The only thing i can figure is that with Sammy loving the Bills as a kid & him being a great kid & football player , not to mention some saying he was the best talent in the draft (which Odell Beckham might have something to say about that) i think Whaley did what he thought was best for the team .

 

I think this year will tell us all a lot more about the pick !!

[Turk]

Yes.You all will get your gratification this season and many more to come. It is over as of yesterday.Let's let it go now focus on the future and a great season ahead. Let those who let this not die move on to how immoral it was to draft Collins the OT from LSU.

[eball]

The argument is not about Sammy Watkins being good or having the potential to be very good. This is not a referendum on Watkins as is repeatedly argued by many. The argument is about priorities and value. The Bills had other more important priorities than WR and they paid way too much!

 

Irrelevant. They were going to take Ebron if they didn't trade. Do you prefer Hogan/Ebron or Watkins/Clay? It really is that simple.

[Dorkington]

 

Irrelevant. They were going to take Ebron if they didn't trade. Do you prefer Hogan/Ebron or Watkins/Clay? It really is that simple.

Seems that's part of the criticism.... that Whaley/the Bills suck because they traded for the 3rd/4th best WR, AND the fact that if they didn't, they would have gotten a crappy TE. We just suck all the way around apparently.

[YoloinOhio]

My thoughts last night were that a lot of teams drafted players in the 1st who need to replace guys they lost in FA, traded, retired, etc. I think the old bills would have let hughes walk and take a pass rusher in the 1st. To me that's not improvement, it's treading water. The Bills are building a team of studs because they have the money to do it and like whaley said without an elite QB they need to be great everywhere else. Looking fwd to a nice addition to the OL.

[Wayne Cubed]

My thoughts last night were that a lot of teams drafted players in the 1st who need to replace guys they lost in FA, traded, retired, etc. I think the old bills would have let hughes walk and take a pass rusher in the 1st. To me that's not improvement, it's treading water. The Bills are building a team of studs because they have the money to do it and like whaley said without an elite QB they need to be great everywhere else. Looking fwd to a nice addition to the OL.

 

But hey the Jest took BPA...

[8-8 Forever?]

I've seen articles about the subject, but was not able to find a thread. But the articles raise the question of whether the Bills trade for Sammy Watkins was worth it. They obviously gave their first last year and now the #19 this year. So here's my take on the subject.

 

I want to first get something very straight. The Bills had only two wide receivers that they would have taken at #9 last year, and that's Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans. There's no way anyone could convince me that Sammy wouldn't have gone early had the Bills not traded up to get him, nor that Tampa Bay had their sites set firmly on Mike Evans.

 

Given that fact set, the Bills wouldn't have reached for the third best WR on the board in Odell Beckham, Jr. over the unilateral best TE in the draft class. So instead of Sammy Watkins, they would have likely picked Eric Ebron. You might say they would have taken a tackle at that point, but that would be based on hindsight that our offensive line wasn't good last year and that Chris Williams didn't turn out as good as expected.

 

So what would that have meant for this year assuming everything else is a constant? First, there would be zero reason to go get Clay in free agency. After all, Ebron is your guy of the future. He can't block worth a damn, but he looks like a decent TE at times. So at #19, they probably would have been looking at the 4th or 5th best WR in this years draft class. Best case scenario Green-Beckham slides to them and worst (and more likely) scenario is they have to reach for a Phillip Dorsett or Nelson Agholor. Personally, I would rather have Watkins/Clay than the alternative. The Bills in free agency have effectively rendered the 19th pick useless to them by virtue of the trade last year for Sammy. Thoughts?

Yes it was. Generational talent who now only needs a QB to get him the d--- ball.