1billsfan Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) Can EJ throw accurately like Alex Smith could in the intermediate range ? Judging by Alex Smith's completion percentage numbers pre-Harbaugh and Roman on pro football reference, he was not a more accurate passer than Manuel. If anything Manuel is a more accurate passer at the same early stage of their careers than was Smith going into his third year. Manuel's 58% average comp vs Smith's 55% average comp rate. It took Alex Smith six years to get over the hump and I'm still amazed he got that long. Maybe it was because the Niners were too proud and stubborn to admit they blew it not taking Rodgers. If Roman can make Alex Smith look good, imagine what he can do with EJ Manuel who size and wheels. I'm excited to see if Manuel can make that huge jump in performance like Smith did. I think it can happen. Edited April 24, 2015 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) Judging by Alex Smith's completion percentage numbers pre-Harbaugh and Roman on pro football reference, he was not a more accurate passer than Manuel. If anything Manuel is a more accurate passer at the same early stage of their careers than was Smith going into his third year. Manuel's 58% average comp vs Smith's 55% average comp rate. It took Alex Smith six years to get over the hump and I'm still amazed he got that long. Maybe it was because the Niners were too proud and stubborn to admit they blew it not taking Rodgers. If Roman can make Alex Smith look good, imagine what he can do with EJ Manuel who size and wheels. I'm excited to see if Manuel can make that huge jump in performance like Smith did. I think it can happen. EJ completed 32% of his passes 10+ yard past the LOS in 2014. Alex Smith completed 41% of his passes 10+ yards past the LOS in 2010. In the intermediate range of 10 - 20 yards, EJ completed 37% of his passes in 2014. Alex Smith completed 47% in 2010. Alex Smith in 2010 had a better completion percentage in every type of forward pass. The EJ of 2014 only had one better when it was behind the LOS. Or 41+ yards, of which both QB's only had 2 attempts. Edited April 24, 2015 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 EJ completed 32% of his passes 10+ yard past the LOS in 2014. Alex Smith completed 41% of his passes 10+ yards past the LOS in 2010. In the intermediate range of 10 - 20 yards, EJ completed 37% of his passes in 2014. Alex Smith completed 47% in 2010. Alex Smith in 2010 had a better completion percentage in every type of forward pass. The EJ of 2014 only had one better when it was behind the LOS. Or 41+ yards, of which both QB's only had 2 attempts. Alex Smith was drafted in 2005. He had 40 starts going into 2010. You're comparing Manuel's first two years and 14 starts to Alex Smith's year 5 in the league?...LOL You're ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 This is what his emphasis was with Fitzpatrick. Footwork and throwing mechanics. Under David Lee Fitz regressed. And add to that Geno Smith's regression last season and it gives me no confidence that Lee is really a QB guru (QB Whisperer?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Could someone point me to an example of an NFL QB who improved under David Lee's tutelage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Alex Smith was drafted in 2005. He had 40 starts going into 2010. You're comparing Manuel's first two years and 14 starts to Alex Smith's year 5 in the league?...LOL You're ridiculous. I thought we were talking Smith pre-Roman. Want me to compare his second year to EJ's? Okay. 2006 Alex Smith passes thrown 11-20 yards - 47% completion. 2014 EJ Manuel passes thrown 11-20 yards - 37% completion. 2006 Alex Smith passes thrown 11+ yards - 40% completion. 2014 EJ Manuel passes thrown 11+ yards - 32% completion. And 2006 Alex Smith yet again killed him in every category except completion percentage behind the LOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 No. Absolutely not. I've read right here that EJ is a bust. I say no moreso Lee never developed X, Y and/or Z. Does anyone know a QB that he has developed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) I thought we were talking Smith pre-Roman. Want me to compare his second year to EJ's? Okay. 2006 Alex Smith passes thrown 11-20 yards - 47% completion. 2014 EJ Manuel passes thrown 11-20 yards - 37% completion. 2006 Alex Smith passes thrown 11+ yards - 40% completion. 2014 EJ Manuel passes thrown 11+ yards - 32% completion. And 2006 Alex Smith yet again killed him in every category except completion percentage behind the LOS. First four games in their 2nd NFL season... Smith - 75 QB rating, 54% comp percentage, 3 passing TDs, QB record 1-3 Manuel - 80 QB rating, 58% comp percentage, 5 passing TDs 1 rushing TD (he doubled the TD output of Alex), QB record 2-2 It's ridiculous to judge a 16 game season vs a 4 game season. Sorry, but you're failing here. EJ Manuel is a better QB than Alex Smith was at this stage of their careers. That's not saying much for EJ, but it's still a fact. You can go deep deep down the stat sheet to find ridiculous stats like Alex beating EJ in completions over 10 yards in their second season's, but it still doesn't change the facts that Manuel is better than him at this stage. I think you're really going to end up regretting pushing the EJ is garbage montra so hard this offseason. There's a decent chance he looks good with all that's around him like the defense, running game, WRs and professional NFL coaches instead of the Syracuse low level college staff. Edited April 24, 2015 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) I thought we were talking Smith pre-Roman. Want me to compare his second year to EJ's? Okay. 2006 Alex Smith passes thrown 11-20 yards - 47% completion. 2014 EJ Manuel passes thrown 11-20 yards - 37% completion. 2006 Alex Smith passes thrown 11+ yards - 40% completion. 2014 EJ Manuel passes thrown 11+ yards - 32% completion. And 2006 Alex Smith yet again killed him in every category except completion percentage behind the LOS. It's curious why you keep using 2014 when EJ had 4 starts which is a small sample set. What happens if you look at his numbers from the season he started most of the games? A quick look at 2013 and it shows that EJ's completion % of passes between 11-20 yards is 46.3% - right on par with what you're saying Smith had early in his career. Edited April 24, 2015 by MDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsidethebox Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 I don't understand all the EJ hate. The guy only has 14 games under his belt! Tough crowd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) If Diamond David Lee can't unchain EJ and have him dancing in the street, I'm not sure who can. I think this results in an eruption of success and EJ shouting: I'm the one. Edited April 24, 2015 by Stopthepain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) First four games in their 2nd NFL season... Smith - 75 QB rating, 54% comp percentage, 3 passing TDs, QB record 1-3 Manuel - 80 QB rating, 58% comp percentage, 5 passing TDs 1 rushing TD (he doubled the TD output of Alex), QB record 2-2 It's ridiculous to judge a 16 game season vs a 4 game season. Sorry, but you're failing here. EJ Manuel is a better QB than Alex Smith was at this stage of their careers. That's not saying much for EJ, but it's still a fact. You can go deep deep down the stat sheet to find ridiculous stats like Alex beating EJ in completions over 10 yards in their second season's, but it still doesn't change the facts that Manuel is better than him at this stage. I think you're really going to end up regretting pushing the EJ is garbage montra so hard this offseason. There's a decent chance he looks good with all that's around him like the defense, running game, WRs and professional NFL coaches instead of the Syracuse low level college staff. You made the argument that the completion percentage shows that EJ is the more accurate passer at this stage. I don't think it does. It's curious why you keep using 2014 when EJ had 4 starts which is a small sample set. What happens if you look at his numbers from the season he started most of the games? A quick look at 2013 and it shows that EJ's completion % of passes between 11-20 yards is 46.3% - right on par with what you're saying Smith had early in his career. The main reason was that I didn't want to add two different data sets with a calculator. 2013+2014 would probably be best. However, Greg Roman will be working with the EJ who is coming off the 2014 campaign, not the 2013 one. Edited April 24, 2015 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 No. Absolutely not. I've read right here that EJ is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 It's curious why you keep using 2014 when EJ had 4 starts which is a small sample set. What happens if you look at his numbers from the season he started most of the games? A quick look at 2013 and it shows that EJ's completion % of passes between 11-20 yards is 46.3% - right on par with what you're saying Smith had early in his career. because it "provides" him with the "data" to support his EJ sucks mantra. Sorry, but you're failing here. EJ Manuel is a better QB than Alex Smith was at this stage of their careers. That's not saying much for EJ, but it's still a fact. You can go deep deep down the stat sheet to find ridiculous stats like Alex beating EJ in completions over 10 yards in their second season's, but it still doesn't change the facts that Manuel is better than him at this stage. I think you're really going to end up regretting pushing the EJ is garbage montra so hard this offseason. There's a decent chance he looks good with all that's around him like the defense, running game, WRs and professional NFL coaches instead of the Syracuse low level college staff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) Judging by Alex Smith's completion percentage numbers pre-Harbaugh and Roman on pro football reference, he was not a more accurate passer than Manuel. If anything Manuel is a more accurate passer at the same early stage of their careers than was Smith going into his third year. Manuel's 58% average comp vs Smith's 55% average comp rate. It took Alex Smith six years to get over the hump and I'm still amazed he got that long. Maybe it was because the Niners were too proud and stubborn to admit they blew it not taking Rodgers. If Roman can make Alex Smith look good, imagine what he can do with EJ Manuel who size and wheels. I'm excited to see if Manuel can make that huge jump in performance like Smith did. I think it can happen. Hope you are right !! We must have the keys to run this Ferrari ! Edited April 24, 2015 by MOVALLEYRANDY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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