ALLEN1QB Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 No No No we already have three guys on the roster can't afford another spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 EJ is a 25 year old 1st round pick with 14 starts. Tyrod is a 25 year old 6th round pick with 0 starts. I would say Romo is pretty good, he was UDFA Yea, Id say you could argue romo a better discussion point than fitz in talking day 3 qbs. While fitz has an important role in the NFL, I don't think anyone would mark him down as the goal at qb, just the stop gap to get to the goal Yea, Id say you could argue romo a better discussion point than fitz in talking day 3 qbs. While fitz has an important role in the NFL, I don't think anyone would mark him down as the goal at qb, just the stop gap to get to the goal EJ is a 25 year old 1st round pick with 14 starts. Tyrod is a 25 year old 6th round pick with 0 starts. I would say Romo is pretty good, he was UDFA Romo wasn't drafted. Of 1000000000000's of udfa you have him, warner, how many more over 20 yrs? How many won when it mattered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Romo wasn't drafted. Of 1000000000000's of udfa you have him, warner, how many more over 20 yrs? How many won when it mattered? So Fitzpatrick qualifies as 1 of 2 good QB's that fell past the 3rd round, but Romo doesn't? Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 So Fitzpatrick qualifies as 1 of 2 good QB's that fell past the 3rd round, but Romo doesn't? Okie dokie by literal meaning. Yes. We are talking about a late round pick not a udfa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
217014170 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) Why is it assumed that Jeff Tuel will make it past the June 1st cuts this year? Tuel could easily be cut based on what happens during the draft process (rounds 1-7 and the UDFA rush that follows) this year leaving room for a QB prospect. It seems like every thread I read accepts that Tuel will be part of this team going forward. I view him currently as the clear #4 QB that could eat reps at training camp or just as easily be cut to make room for the next guy. I am on the record that the Bills will draft a QB this year likely in the 5th/6th round area unless something absurd happens. Edited March 27, 2015 by 217014170 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 This is only in regards to your avatar. Did you see that the Seahawks now say BJ fits into their plans to catch passes or run with the ball or something? Threatened to have him active for SB for special plays, but did not. He does have one SB ring already though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I'm terrified at the idea of Mannion and his apparent inability to drive the football with velocity having to throw in the late-autumn winds at Ralph Wilson Stadium. To me, Mannion is a guy that's an ideal backup. He actually reminds me of another Oregon State Alum--Derek Anderson. Agreed...just don't see him getting to 50. I know I've beat this drum a few times, but I just can't get away from the idea that he goes to NO at pick 31. I've heard that a lot around here. Nothing insider, just fan chatter Why is it assumed that Jeff Tuel will make it past the June 1st cuts this year? Tuel could easily be cut based on what happens during the draft process (rounds 1-7 and the UDFA rush that follows) this year leaving room for a QB prospect. It seems like every thread I read accepts that Tuel will be part of this team going forward. I view him currently as the clear #4 QB that could eat reps at training camp or just as easily be cut to make room for the next guy. I am on the record that the Bills will draft a QB this year likely in the 5th/6th round area unless something absurd happens. I think everyone's assuming he won't make the 53 and with two guys that qualify as green but with potential a 6th rounder likely doesn't add much value to the group Romo wasn't drafted. Of 1000000000000's of udfa you have him, warner, how many more over 20 yrs? How many won when it mattered? Definitely wasn't arguing it's proof that we can get one there, simply if talking successful flyers he's better than fitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I've heard that a lot around here. Nothing insider, just fan chatter Interesting...I think it lands in the category of makes-so-much-sense-it-has-to-happen...which probably means it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) There has literally never been a good QB taken in the 6th round or later. Specifically, once you get past pick 198 it's only a bunch of bums that are left "That's sarcasm - isn't it? " http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady Since Brady was famously pick #199 in the 6th round, I don't think it's a coincidence that diggz chose #198 to say everything after this is junk. If you change your "literally" to "vitually", you could say the same thing for QBs selected after the #36 pick......in the last 25 years or so. Damnnit Dibs now you had to go tweeking my curiousity gene. Leaving out the last 2 years (which lack enough statistics) and using pro-football-reference CAV of >40 with a bit of wiggle (Kaepernick is lower - but he's been to the playoffs 2x and Superbowl) to select "good" QB drafted 1982-2012 we get: Round "good" QB total QB % Pick 1 to 36 45 78 58 1st round 41 71 58 2nd rd 33-36 3 5 60 2nd rd overall 9 32 28 2nd rd 37-on 5 32 16 3rd rd 8 39 21 4th rd 8 43 19 5th rd 1 34 3 6th rd 7 61 11 7th rd 3 53 6 2nd 36-7th 32 254 13 What do I make out of that? Well, again, as previously posted, the odds of picking a good QB - not magical franchise guy, just a guy who can play several seasons in the NFL at a competent level - are only about 60% in the 1st round (they're actually higher at the top of the 1st and fall at the bottom of the 1st). The best "value spot" to pick a promising QB may be the top of the 2nd round. Once you get past the 1st 4 picks of the 2nd round, the 2nd through 4th rounds are about the same. I don't know what to make of the 5th round. Don't draft a QB in the 5th round. You're about half as likely to find a decent QB in the 6th-7th round as in the 37th pick -4th round And yeah, I'll attach my work if someone cares to tell me how to do it without a big mess here. I'd love to be able to paste in Excel tables or even create a table in a post. Edited March 27, 2015 by Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Doesn't seem like there are too many developmental QBs drafted anymore....You're pretty much drafted to play and given maybe 3 years to show something. Not sure what you're thinking here. If by "developmental QB" one means "guy you take a flyer on in the later 2nd through 7th round" there were 109 such QB drafted between 1984-1999 and 150 such drafted between 2000-2014. I think that ~40% increase reflects that the need for a good QB is higher and higher and the number of NFL-ready QB is smaller and smaller. We have plenty of developmental QBs. Why draft another? Why not, if we have someone on the FO with an eye for a QB and there's one in the late rounds whom we like? I would totally like to see 2nd through 4th go for OL and TE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
217014170 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 This is only in regards to your avatar. Did you see that the Seahawks now say BJ fits into their plans to catch passes or run with the ball or something? Threatened to have him active for SB for special plays, but did not. He does have one SB ring already though. Yes...and I was hoping to see him active for the SB. He was not active but was right next to Carroll most of the game just taking everything in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KRT88 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I watched Shane Carden play a lot this year. I love the kids moxy, I'd take a flyer on him late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 We will probably avoid WR, RB completely and hit OL LB & DB in this draft. But if a QB falls in to their lap...man, just can't see it happening. Want to see Tyrod working with our personnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Avenger Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Reports say that EJ and Taylor's salaries are fully guaranteed for next year, so cutting them doesn't make much sense. If you're going to pickup another QB you're either planning on carrying 4 QBs, cutting Cassel, or cutting a guy with a guaranteed salary - seems like some unattractive options unless the teams feels they have found someone who can contribute this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 "That's sarcasm - isn't it? " Since Brady was famously pick #199 in the 6th round, I don't think it's a coincidence that diggz chose #198 to say everything after this is junk. Damnnit Dibs now you had to go tweeking my curiousity gene. Leaving out the last 2 years (which lack enough statistics) and using pro-football-reference CAV of >40 with a bit of wiggle (Kaepernick is lower - but he's been to the playoffs 2x and Superbowl) to select "good" QB drafted 1982-2012 we get: Round "good" QB total QB % Pick 1 to 36 45 78 58 1st round 41 71 58 2nd rd 33-36 3 5 60 2nd rd overall 9 32 28 2nd rd 37-on 5 32 16 3rd rd 8 39 21 4th rd 8 43 19 5th rd 1 34 3 6th rd 7 61 11 7th rd 3 53 6 2nd 36-7th 32 254 13 What do I make out of that? Well, again, as previously posted, the odds of picking a good QB - not magical franchise guy, just a guy who can play several seasons in the NFL at a competent level - are only about 60% in the 1st round (they're actually higher at the top of the 1st and fall at the bottom of the 1st). The best "value spot" to pick a promising QB may be the top of the 2nd round. Once you get past the 1st 4 picks of the 2nd round, the 2nd through 4th rounds are about the same. I don't know what to make of the 5th round. Don't draft a QB in the 5th round. You're about half as likely to find a decent QB in the 6th-7th round as in the 37th pick -4th round And yeah, I'll attach my work if someone cares to tell me how to do it without a big mess here. I'd love to be able to paste in Excel tables or even create a table in a post. I broke it down a little differently like a month ago. After the top 5 picks the QBs are slightly less than 50% in the 1st round to be even starters. For the sake of this I think that it was like a starter for 35 games or something. I don't remember where it was on here but I went back to 2004 or 2005 and used every 1st round QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Reports say that EJ and Taylor's salaries are fully guaranteed for next year, so cutting them doesn't make much sense. If you're going to pickup another QB you're either planning on carrying 4 QBs, cutting Cassel, or cutting a guy with a guaranteed salary - seems like some unattractive options unless the teams feels they have found someone who can contribute this year.... So you carry 3 QB, cut Tuel, and stash the rookie on the practice squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uffalo Ills Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 There has literally never been a good QB taken in the 6th round or later. Specifically, once you get past pick 198 it's only a bunch of bums that are left lol Brady isnt good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I broke it down a little differently like a month ago. After the top 5 picks the QBs are slightly less than 50% in the 1st round to be even starters. For the sake of this I think that it was like a starter for 35 games or something. I don't remember where it was on here but I went back to 2004 or 2005 and used every 1st round QB. I wouldn't be surprised Kirby. That sounds about right, actually. I don't know that I like the "start >36 game" criteria because it flags some guys who started but sucked. But if you use the PFR "Career AV" thing, you get 12 QB drafted pick 1-5 2004-2012 and 7 of them starters (Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, A. Smith, E. Manning, Rivers) for 58%. Pick 6-32 you get 15 QB drafted in the same time interval and 7/15 starters for 47% if you stretch a point for Tannehill (Tannehill, Freeman, Flacco, Cutler, Rodgers, Campbell, Roethlisburger) One can argue and say Freeman and Campbell don't belong on there 'cuz they're not starting (or even out of football) and that some of the guys in the first 5 picks did start so they do belong (Bradford, Sanchez, Griffen) but either way you slice n' dice it, the odds of picking up a good long term starter even in the first round are about 50% - maybe as high as 60% in the 1st 5 picks and maybe a bit less than 50% in the bottom of the 1st. That's why the Bills' historical reluctance to use 1st round picks on a QB is so fatal. We've done this stupid thing where we act like drafting a QB is Highlander Redux "There Can Be Only One", only using 2 bottom half 1st round picks and 1 3rd round pick in the last 15 years. The odds of successfully finding a franchise guy are very poor with that strategy and hey, guess what. lol Brady isnt good? I think you just slipped and fell in his Sar Chasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised Kirby. That sounds about right, actually. I don't know that I like the "start >36 game" criteria because it flags some guys who started but sucked. But if you use the PFR "Career AV" thing, you get 12 QB drafted pick 1-5 2004-2012 and 7 of them starters (Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, A. Smith, E. Manning, Rivers) for 58%. Pick 6-32 you get 15 QB drafted in the same time interval and 7/15 starters for 47% if you stretch a point for Tannehill (Tannehill, Freeman, Flacco, Cutler, Rodgers, Campbell, Roethlisburger) One can argue and say Freeman and Campbell don't belong on there 'cuz they're not starting (or even out of football) and that some of the guys in the first 5 picks did start so they do belong (Bradford, Sanchez, Griffen) but either way you slice n' dice it, the odds of picking up a good long term starter even in the first round are about 50% - maybe as high as 60% in the 1st 5 picks and maybe a bit less than 50% in the bottom of the 1st. That's why the Bills' historical reluctance to use 1st round picks on a QB is so fatal. We've done this stupid thing where we act like drafting a QB is Highlander Redux "There Can Be Only One", only using 2 bottom half 1st round picks and 1 3rd round pick in the last 15 years. The odds of successfully finding a franchise guy are very poor with that strategy and hey, guess what. I think you just slipped and fell in his Sar Chasm I didn't have Freeman or Campbell in that franchise territory. I didn't specifically use 35 games it was just intuitively a benchmark. I should have clarified. Sanchez, Bradford and RG were tricky for me and I don't remember which bucket they fell in. I didn't include last year's rookies. Good work on the chart by the way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 (edited) ...... Damnnit Dibs now you had to go tweeking my curiousity gene. .......Well, again, as previously posted, the odds of picking a good QB - not magical franchise guy, just a guy who can play several seasons in the NFL at a competent level - are only about 60% in the 1st round (they're actually higher at the top of the 1st and fall at the bottom of the 1st)....... The problem that we have here is the term "good". When I used it, I was not referring to the measure of number of starts/seasons in a career to determine the definition. Orton and Cassel have both had/have good careers as NFL QBs, but not many people if asked "Do the Bills have a good QB?" would answer "Yes, Orton/Cassel is a good QB". There have been quite a few QBs who have played well for multiple years, but said QBs are usually looked at as "Not good enough." and an improvement is usually always looked for. The benchmark for "good enough" is very high in the NFL in regards to QBs, and even when a QB just scrapes over that high benchmark(Matt Hasselbeck for example), they still do not provide the desired result that one wishes from the QB position. Essentially it is the magical Franchise guys(P.Manning, Rogers, Brees, Brady) and the tier just below(Rivers, Roethisberger, etc) that are what is wanted at QB. Anything below that, for the most part, is simply not good enough. In the last 20 years there have been 190 QBs drafted after pick #36. Brady and Wilson are clearly franchise guys.....so the odds of obtaining the QB one really wants is 1 in 95. We also have the following QBs(listed in order of number of starts).... Hasselbeck(152) Plummer(136) Bulger(95) Schaub(90) Brooks(90) Fitzpatrick(89) Stewart(87) Griese(83) Orton(82) Banks(78) Garrard(76) Cassel(71) Batch(55) 176 other QBs How many on that list would people consider "good enough"? Even if one stretches things to saying Hasselbeck and Plummer are good enough, that means that the odds become 1 in 47.5 of drafting a QB after pick #36 who is good enough. In real terms that means that if we were to "take a flyer" every year we could reasonable expect to find one guy every 47.5 years. Don't get me wrong here.....I don't believe that one should not take flyers on QBs(one can't get lucky unless one rolls the dice). One should not however think in any realistic way that taking an individual flyer on a QB is anything more than the long shot stab in the dark that it is. For interest sake.... There were 55 QBs selected in picks #1-36 through those 20 years. There were 26 non top 10 QBs selected in that set. Some of the names in that 26 are: Culpepper, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Rogers, Brees, Dalton, Kaepernick. (With of course top 10 picks of Manning, Vick, Palmer, Manning, Smith, Newton, Luck, McNabb, McNair, Rivers, Tannehill) Edited March 28, 2015 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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