How Good Do You Think Evans Will Be?

[Bill from NYC]

I have been thinking about the WR position, and have come to believe that TD has some very seriouus decisions to make. What TD will do will to a large degree depend on his evaluation of, and expectations about Evans.

 

Moulds is due to count more than 8 million vs. the cap. To his credit, he is willing to renegotiate, and wants to remain in Buffalo. Imo, we still need Eric because our younger receivers haven't shown much. A case could be made that Josh Reed even sucks.

 

I am thinking that Evans will be a star in this league, and will step into the role as the #1 receiver on the Bills before the 05 is over, especially if Drew is not the starter.

If TD thinks the same way, I doubt that he will sign Moulds to a very large contract. Eric can be a GREAT #2 wideout, but those guys tend not to be paid the huge salaries. Imo, these will be tough negotiations. I hope Moulds will remain on the team, but he may have to take a pretty big pay cut in order to do so.

 

This is going to be one wild offseason.

[JimBob2232]

I have been chastized for saying this before, but I'll say it again. I do not think evans can be a sucessfull #1, at least not without a good #2.

 

Here is my reasoning. There are VERY few (if any) #1 recievers less than 6'0". Without the presence of moulds, LEE could be double teamed and essentially rendered useless as he would not have the physical capabilities to battle other teams best corners. Lee is a VERY good reciever, but I feel that in order for him to have the success we want ,we need the big physical reciever oposite him to draw the attention of the #1 Corner and avoid being doubled.

 

Keep EM, but resturcture his deal.

[Psumoulds]

I have been thinking about the WR position, and have come to believe that TD has some very seriouus decisions to make. What TD will do will to a large degree depend on his evaluation of, and expectations about Evans.

 

Moulds is due to count more than 8 million vs. the cap. To his credit, he is willing to renegotiate, and wants to remain in Buffalo. Imo, we still need Eric because our younger receivers haven't shown much. A case could be made that Josh Reed even sucks.

 

I am thinking that Evans will be a star in this league, and will step into the role as the #1 receiver on the Bills before the 05 is over, especially if Drew is not the starter.

If TD thinks the same way, I doubt that he will sign Moulds to a very large contract. Eric can be a GREAT #2 wideout, but those guys tend not to be paid the huge salaries. Imo, these will be tough negotiations. I hope Moulds will remain on the team, but he may have to take a pretty big pay cut in order to do so.

 

This is going to be one wild offseason.

223016[/snapback]

Evans is like Peerless great deep threat but nobody beats Moulds over the middle Eric is a #1

[BillsFanLevy]

You are crazy!!!!!!!

 

Evans is cut out of the Price mold explosive and fast but can't cut a defense up with power like Moulds. Evans will be a great number 2, Moulds will keep him as a very productive number 2 like he did with Price. But speed isn't everything when you are sitting in double coverage all game like Moulds. You have to be strong and take the ball, like Moulds does. So while I agree Moulds has to restructure it's not like Drew where if he doesn't he's gone. He's doing to win football games because he wants to go to the playoff's and have a chance to win. So over all I love Evans but he's not a number 1 receiver.

[Psumoulds]

You are crazy!!!!!!!

 

Evans is cut out of the Price mold explosive and fast but can't cut a defense up with power like Moulds.  Evans will be a great number 2, Moulds will keep him as a very productive number 2 like he did with Price.  But speed isn't everything when you are sitting in double coverage all game like Moulds.  You have to be strong and take the ball, like Moulds does.  So while I agree Moulds has to restructure it's not like Drew where if he doesn't he's gone.  He's doing to win football games because he wants to go to the playoff's and have a chance to win.  So over all I love Evans but he's not a number 1 receiver.

223021[/snapback]

Absolutely agree with you and come on Moulds has always been awesome

[Mark VI]

Too early to tell whether Evans will ever be a good #1 or not. Outside of a similar build, he had little in common with Peerless Price. Evans can run all the patterns and doesn't short arm/hear footsteps going over the middle. I saw many of his Wisconson games and he played without fear,catching everything. Peerless was gutless in that respect and has completely flopped in Atlanta. Evans is much faster.

 

Time will tell but Moulds will probably restructure within reason. That still won't cure his inconsistent hands but you must give Losman some viable options while he is first starting out. The Bills need to aquire a sure handed WR ( and TE) Vet in March Free Agency. Reed may still get one last shot with Losman. Aiken has shown little.

 

Head Coaches usually make few moves their 1st year, evaluating their roster. Prior to year 2, they Identify the players that will win for them and purge the rest. I expect to see a few eye opening moves this off-season.

[Bill from NYC]

You are crazy!!!!!!!

 

Evans is cut out of the Price mold explosive and fast but can't cut a defense up with power like Moulds.  Evans will be a great number 2, Moulds will keep him as a very productive number 2 like he did with Price.  But speed isn't everything when you are sitting in double coverage all game like Moulds.  You have to be strong and take the ball, like Moulds does.  So while I agree Moulds has to restructure it's not like Drew where if he doesn't he's gone.  He's doing to win football games because he wants to go to the playoff's and have a chance to win.  So over all I love Evans but he's not a number 1 receiver.

223021[/snapback]

 

Please keep in mind that my post was NOT to bash Moulds. Like I said, imo the Bills need him in 05.

I also dont think that Evans was selected at #13 to be a second receiver for his entire career. Perhaps I rate him higher than many here, but I think that Evans will be a literal star on the Bills, and soon.

As for the PP comparison, I think that Evans is even faster than PP thus even more dangerous. I am MUCH happier with Evans on the Bills than I was having PP.

[bill in Livonia]

I think we need a third reciever. JR isn't going to make it Let's hope Evans does not have a let down in his second year and Let's find a strong third reviever in free agency.

GO BILLS!

[BillnutinHouston]

Absolutely agree with you and come on Moulds has always been awesome

223024[/snapback]

 

Except for all those drops. And there were way too many of them.

[Brandon]

Please keep in mind that my post was NOT to bash Moulds. Like I said, imo the Bills need him in 05.

I also dont think that Evans was selected at #13 to be a second receiver for his entire career. Perhaps I rate him higher than many here, but I think that Evans will be a literal star on the Bills, and soon.

As for the PP comparison, I think that Evans is even faster than PP thus even more dangerous. I am MUCH happier with Evans on the Bills than I was having PP.

223038[/snapback]

 

I agree. I've been calling him the next Marvin Harrison since before he was drafted.

 

About the only thing he has in common with Peerless Price is his height. Its not so much that he's faster than Price (and he is significantly faster), but he's at least a little better in every way. He runs good routes, is strong for his size and isn't easily jammed, has very good hands (a suprisingly underrated skill in a WR), isn't afraid of catching in traffic, can break a tackle, and despite his height, we've seen that he's a threat in jump ball situations. Price is at least one notch below Evans in most of those areas.

 

The point is, if Lee Evans were two inches taller, we wouldn't be mentioning Price right now. Price is a good WR and better than he's looked in Atlanta, but Evans has more overall ability than Price and seems to have a much better feel for the position as well.

[Mantis Toboggan M.D]

When i was watching games this year, the one thing that really stood out to me was how well Lee Evans used his hands. Unlike most recievers who like to use their body to catch passes rather than stretching their hands out, Lee uses his hands every time. Most notably the touchdown catches that he makes. After i saw him play the seahawks game and the 2nd fins game, i believed that Lee Evans would bethe 2nd coming of Marvin. Marvin is ALSO very small. Not sure how tall he is but i dont think hes very tall.

[Brandon]

When i was watching games this year, the one thing that really stood out to me was how well Lee Evans used his hands. Unlike most recievers who like to use their body to catch passes rather than stretching their hands out, Lee uses his hands every time. Most notably the touchdown catches that he makes. After i saw him play the seahawks game and the 2nd fins game, i believed that Lee Evans would bethe 2nd coming of Marvin. Marvin is ALSO very small. Not sure how tall he is but i dont think hes very tall.

223092[/snapback]

 

Harrison is listed at 6'0", a whole inch taller than Evans. It is notable, however, that Evans outweighs Harrision by 20-30lbs.

[Art in PNS]

He's gotten no chance to shown what he's got.

I like Aikens potential and, I would like to see what he can do as our #3 reciever.

223080[/snapback]

 

Aiken had a couple of drops on bad balls if I remeber correctly but in the Steelers game when they actually threw to him you could see his skills. Aiken is a solid #3 reciever here and a great backup. I think you will see him more in 05 .

[Justice]

I expect a good sophmore year. 1200 yards receiving+10TD's

[KurtGodel77]

I know this way of looking at things is different from most people's, but in my mind Evans and Moulds play two different positions. Evans is a speed WR; Moulds plays a position that's kind of a cross between speed WR and tight end. So it's about as useful to compare Moulds to Evans as it is to compare Moulds to Jeremy Shockey or some other pass catching tight end.

 

Clearly our speed WR position is in good hands (no pun intended) with Evans. But I don't like the whole situation surrounding Moulds. For one thing, his cap figure is a noose around this team's neck. Also, I'd say that good hands are even more important for a possession WR than a speed WR. Think about it: let's say that every time there is a third down, the QB throws a 40 yard pass to the speed WR. The speed WR catches two passes out of every three. So his 2:1 catch:drop ratio gets you scores on two drives out of three, and a punt on one drive out of three.

 

Compare that to the situation where you're throwing to your possession WR every time it's third down. Assuming your possession WR averages only ten yards a catch, your chance of moving the ball at least 40 yards is only (2/3)^4 = 20%. On any one third down play, your possession WR will probably make a catch to move the chains. But sooner or later he will drop the ball, the drive will stall, and you'll have to punt. Assuming that the team does nothing on first and second down, that your possession WR has two catches for each drop, and that he gets 10 yards a catch, you only have a 4% chance of driving the ball 80 yards.

 

Moulds averaged just 12 yards a catch. That's fine if you're not dropping passes. Moulds does; and that's not something you can accept in a possession WR. As long as Moulds remains the focal point of the Bills' passing offense, expect to see more punts than scoring drives, no matter who is under center.

[Spiderweb]

Too early to tell whether Evans will ever be a good #1 or not. Outside of a similar build, he had little in common with Peerless Price. Evans can run all the patterns and doesn't short arm/hear footsteps going over the middle. I saw many of his Wisconson games and he played without fear,catching everything. Peerless was gutless in that respect and has completely flopped in Atlanta. Evans is much faster.

 

Time will tell but Moulds will probably restructure within reason. That still won't cure his inconsistent hands but you must give Losman some viable options while he is first starting out. The Bills need to aquire a sure handed WR ( and TE) Vet in March Free Agency. Reed may still get one last shot with Losman. Aiken has shown little.

 

Head Coaches usually make few moves their 1st year, evaluating their roster. Prior to year 2, they Identify the players that will win for them and purge the rest. I expect to see a few eye opening moves this off-season.

223036[/snapback]

 

Evans? From what we saw down the stretch, save the Pitt finale, he was developing very fast. I see no reason this guy won't be light years better than Peerless Price. He showed toughness, and strong hands, neither of which were PP traits. Couple this with even better speed and Evans can easily become a number 1.

 

Here's some stats from "another" receiver's rookie year:

 

Year | G | Rec Yards Y/R TD |

+----------+-----+------------------------

| 1985 | 16 | 49 927 18.9 3

 

Here's Evans rookie year:

 

| 2004 | 16 | 48 843 17.6 9

 

And here's Moulds 1st two years:

 

|1996 | 16 | 20 279 13.9 2

|1997 | 16 | 29 294 10.1 0

 

Note: The other receiver's name was Jerry Rice. Now Who's numbers does Evans' more closely resemble?

 

Now I'm not saying that Evans is the second coming of Jerry Rice, but he's easily been the best looking young WR we've had since Jerry Butler who would have been an all time great hadn't he been hit with two serious injuiries to end his career.

 

Lee has a chance, a very good chance, to be a great one.

[KurtGodel77]

I agree that Evans shows promise. But the problem with your logic is that Josh Reed had a good rookie year too.

[Spiderweb]

I agree that Evans shows promise. But the problem with your logic is that Josh Reed had a good rookie year too.

223580[/snapback]

 

Reed did not have the catches, yards per catch, the yards, or the TD's which is what it's all about.

 

Bad analogy. Reed also had the advantage of being the third WR, going against safties, or LB's. Evans was covered by legit CB's and we all know what Reed showed against DB's. You just managed to compare apples to cinder blocks.

[KurtGodel77]

Reed did not have the catches,  yards per catch, the yards, or the TD's which is what it's all about.

 

Bad analogy. Reed also had the advantage of being the third WR, going against safties, or LB's. Evans was covered by legit CB's and we all know what Reed showed against DB's. You just managed to compare apples to cinder blocks.

223581[/snapback]

As the third WR, Reed would mostly be going against the nickle back. Besides that, he's been the third WR this year too, and you haven't seen him play half as well as he did when he was a rookie. I'm not saying you're wrong about Evans--he's probably better than Moulds already, and has the potential to become even better. But that whole Reed situation has made me more cautious.

[Stussy109]

Evans Hands are 3 times as good as Moulds... Awesome fundamentals catching away from his body. Moulds is starting to get a case of the dropsies, hurting his value, dropping clutch throws.

[KurtGodel77]

Evans Hands are 3 times as good as Moulds... Awesome fundamentals catching away from his body.  Moulds is starting to get a case of the dropsies, hurting his value, dropping clutch throws.

223587[/snapback]

Excellent post! When you're only averaging 12 yards a catch--as Moulds does--you have to catch everything thrown your way. He doesn't.

 

Let's say you want to move the ball down the field. Every time it's third down, you throw to a guy who is twice as likely to catch the pass as he is to drop it. The first time you face third down, you have a 67% chance of moving the chains. But how far do they move? With a guy who averages 40 yards a catch, you have a 67% chance of succeeding in moving the ball 40 yards, and a 44% chance of moving the ball 80 yards. (The 44% chance of moving the ball 80 yards assumes that you rely on this guy to bail you out of third down situations twice in a row. Each time he succeeds he gets you 40 yards.) But with the guy who averages just 10 yards a catch, you have to convert four third downs to get those 40 yards, and eight third downs to get 80 yards. Given that your WR has two catches for one drop, your odds of converting those four third downs are 20%, and your odds of converting eight third downs in a row are just 4%.

 

In other words, the longer the distance your offense needs to go, the more the Moulds' combination of short YPC and dropped balls will hurt it. Notice the 40 YPC guy was about three times as likely to succeed in moving the ball 40 yards, but 11 times as likely to succeed in moving the ball 80 yards. This is why we scored so many points in that stretch when our defense and special teams kept giving the offense a short field. Any team is helped by a short field; but us more than most because we rely so heavily on a WR who has the combination of low YPC and a high number of drops.

[John from Riverside]

I think that it is just too early to tell just how good Evens will be......I also think that I dont want to find out.

 

Maybe it is just me but unlike Peerless Price Evans seems to have no problem with Moulds being the "Number 1" and him being "Number 1a"

 

It is a good problem to have...I also think that except for the speed that is as far as the comparisons go with Evans.....

 

Anybody remember the touchdown Evans caught at the end of the season where he got hit by a defender..kept his balance and crossed the goaline again? He is able to do this because for a shorter receiver he is also a heavier receiver with a upper biuld more like a running back.

 

Our receivers are fine.....

[OnTheRocks]

He reminds me of guys like:

James Lofton

Anthony Miller (chagers)

Anthony Carter (vikings)

 

 

Great Speed. Great Hands. Great Pattern runner. It will be another year or two before you can tell anything about his toughness, but so far he hasn't shown anything that makes you think his toughness should be questioned. The only downside is his size. Although he has good leaping ability, I don't see him winning

"Jump Balls" like a Randy Moss or Terrell Owens.

 

By the way....I will be one of those few that will admit I was wrong about Lee Evans on draft day. I didn't think they should draft him because I thought it would be 2 or 3 years before he would be able to contribute. He was AWSOME this year!

[Bill from NYC]

He reminds me of guys like:

James Lofton

Anthony Miller (chagers)

Anthony Carter (vikings)

Great Speed.  Great Hands.  Great Pattern runner.  It will be another year or two before you can tell anything about his toughness, but so far he hasn't shown anything that makes you think his toughness should be questioned.  The only downside is his size.  Although he has good leaping ability, I don't see him winning

"Jump Balls" like a Randy Moss or Terrell Owens.

 

By the way....I will be one of those few that will admit I was wrong about Lee Evans on draft day.  I didn't think they should draft him because I thought it would be 2 or 3 years before he would be able to contribute.  He was AWSOME this year!

223644[/snapback]

 

I too was disappointed on draft day. I employed the R.Rich philosophy of going after Big Guys, like Carey, Wilfork, Snee, etc.

It eased the pain considerably watching Evans race into the end zone.

[kota]

Evans will be a pro bowl receiver within a few years. He has speed, great hands, can run the short routes. He is alittle small for going over the middle but I seem to recall him making TD catches going over the middle.

 

I seem to recall a story about how EVans asked Moulds for help on day 1. That is pretty humble for a #1 draft pick. So he has 2 of the best player coaches in the league showing him the ropes. Those people are Moulds and Vincent.

[pm73]

You are crazy!!!!!!!

 

Evans is cut out of the Price mold explosive and fast but can't cut a defense up with power like Moulds.  Evans will be a great number 2, Moulds will keep him as a very productive number 2 like he did with Price.  But speed isn't everything when you are sitting in double coverage all game like Moulds.  You have to be strong and take the ball, like Moulds does.  So while I agree Moulds has to restructure it's not like Drew where if he doesn't he's gone.  He's doing to win football games because he wants to go to the playoff's and have a chance to win.  So over all I love Evans but he's not a number 1 receiver.

223021[/snapback]

 

so do you and others who think that evans wont be a good #1 reciever think that evans was a wasted pick? i mean, a #16 overall pick for a #2 reciever? that doesn't seem right.

 

i'm of the opinion that evans will turn into a great #1 reciever but will need a year or two more to develop into that. if not then that pick will be considered a bust in the future.

[Toledo Bill]

I feel that we are going to get a great year out of Moulds. I really think the past few years affected his attitude. If he wants to remain an "elite" receiver for a quality team, he needs to step up this year. I think he will remain our #1 target for several years. I believe his conditioning will allow this. It is time for him to finalize his legacy and I feel a player like Moulds will excel when challenged to be the #1 target on a GOOD football team.

[KurtGodel77]

I feel that we are going to get a great year out of Moulds. I really think the past few years affected his attitude. If he wants to remain an "elite" receiver for a quality team, he needs to step up this year. I think he will remain our #1 target for several years. I believe his conditioning will allow this. It is time for him to finalize his legacy and I feel a player like Moulds will excel when challenged to be the #1 target on a GOOD football team.

223806[/snapback]

I think we need to get rid of Moulds and sign a player like Muhsin Muhammed. The Panthers may cut Muhammed for salary cap reasons. If there's going to be a new QB anyway, you may as well start of fresh with a new possession receiver; a guy who makes catches instead of drops.

[LabattBlue]

By the way....I will be one of those few that will admit I was wrong about Lee Evans on draft day.  I didn't think they should draft him because I thought it would be 2 or 3 years before he would be able to contribute.  He was AWSOME this year!

223644[/snapback]

Post of the day!!! Someone admitting they were wrong about something previously posted.

 

Now the only question is...why would you do this when all the old threads from last April are gone?

[Toledo Bill]

I think we need to get rid of Moulds and sign a player like Muhsin Muhammed. The Panthers may cut Muhammed for salary cap reasons. If there's going to be a new QB anyway, you may as well start of fresh with a new possession receiver; a guy who makes catches instead of drops.

223866[/snapback]

 

The drops were indeed disheartening. I just feel that if his head is in the game, Moulds can be as good as they come.