EJs accuracy

[EasternOHBillsFan]

So, for all of the EJ critics, if he completed 2 more passes in each of the last 3 games, would you be happy?

Because that that point, He'd be at 70% completion percentage and would be at exactly the same statistical level as Russell Wilson?

 

So I guess we've found the quantifiable number for suckiness. EJ is 2 completions per game below suckiness. What if Chandler could actually catch or if Sammy the Great didn't give up on a play? This debate wouldn't exist.

 

One statistic does NOT make even a good QB... for you to point out his completion percentage based mostly on dumpoff passes, and then on TOP of it claiming it is the others fault for screwing up a play or two for his failure to produce well is garbage. EJ is just not a legit NFL starting quarterback right now, plain and simple... no more Captain Checkdowns!!!

Edited September 25, 2014 by BmoreBills

[Fadingpain]

Because the last few times we started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 we ended up with a losing record, obviously.

 

Wait. Do you mean to suggest that past performance does not guarantee future results?

 

I never would have thought of that. I thought for sure that the Bills struggles during the 1977 season (3-11) meant, FOR SURE, that we wouldn't make the playoffs this year.

 

You are a very intelligent man.

 

That's not "realism", that's pessimism.

 

Realism is saying that the QB has played well enough for the team to win 2 of its first 3 games, and if he can continue to do that, the team will have a winning record.

 

Pessimism is assuming that what's happened a minority of the time (having a poor game) will be the norm.

 

Nah. It all hinges on the spin you put on your comments.

 

I would put forth that strong defensive performances and a good turnover ratio have given us our first two wins. None of that has an ounce to do with EJ.

 

Hell, if EJ was good, we would have blown Miami out of the game, in the first half.

 

Look into that. I think you'll see that's the case.

[Rob's House]

So, QB's never improve over time? Then why have coaches or personal trainers? I believe it is reasonable to expect EJ to improve as he gets experience. The first time he sees a particular defense or alignment, he might struggle. But over time, that should improve. It is doesn't then you know it is time to find another QB. That's why they call it "development". Coaches find a guy that has the right skillset along with the intelligence and work ethic they are looking for and they develop him. I expect to see improvement from EJ over time. Like I said, I'm fine with what I've seen from him so far because I wasn't expecting him to be Johnny Unitas immediately. I'm excited to see how he develops and how the offense as a whole gets better as they build upon things that they all do well and eliminate things they don't.

 

For every guy who doesn't make it, there comes a point when you make a determination that he isn't likely to develop into what you want. Often times it's when you're scouting him. Maybe it's when you get him in camp, preseason, or after a certain amount of game time.

 

You obviously think that the skill set and progress you see in EJ warrants further evaluation. I actually agree, but I'm sure my leash would be considerably shorter than yours.

 

The point is, you're really not arguing over the wisdom of developing a young QB, you're arguing the likelihood of EJ becoming that guy relative to the opportunity cost of sticking with him beyond a certain point.

[Fadingpain]

That's what confuses me. How can people be do sure that EJ won't be good some day? I think he's good now. I think he might be really good someday. The difference is that I'm willing to give him a chance to get there. People with your mindset think that he should already be there or he never will be.

 

May I ask how old you are? How much football have you watched? Were you old enough to be an adult when Jim Kelly played for the Bills, for example?

 

Your analysis rings hollow with extreme negativity given your refusal to acknowledge any positive play from EJ. You are not credible and have been reduced to the din of blah blah blah as you offer nothing new in the way of insight.

 

You are entitled to your opinion. See my comments in post # 87 in this thread.

[All_Pro_Bills]

I hope Fitz throws three Touchdowns.....to Leodis McKelvin.

McKelvin, he consistently catches punts but drops interceptions. Can't fugure that one out..

[Fadingpain]

I agree, but you sound like it is a foregone conclusion that he will not improve on the bad things with some of the comments that you make. They come off black and white.

 

Fair enough. For the 10,000th time in the 10,000th thread on this topic:

 

I believe I have seen enough in EJ Manuel's career at FSU and the Bills to conclude his ultimate potential upside is "NOT GOOD ENOUGH". A whole lot of people around the NFL (outside of Buffalo) agree with me, by the way.

 

That may be characterized as "black and white". That is not where I am coming from in that analysis. I think EJ has many pros and cons to his game. His physique and general level of athleticism are superlative. He has prototypical size and wonderful arm strength. Ask Jeff Tuel if arm strength is important in this league.

 

He is a smart guy off the field. EJ has lots of positives in his favor.

 

I do not believe he is the heir to Jim Kelly, and that is the QB I have been waiting for for a long time now.

 

I also believe that we will never win a Superbowl without a Jim Kelly caliber QB on the team.

 

That is where my criticism of EJ begins and ends.

[Maddog69]

 

 

Fair enough Bills Brother!

 

The reality is that most people on this forum can be divided into two camps: the optimists and the pessimists. It relates to how differing people view the entire concept of sports and "fandom."

 

Some treat it very seriously and realistically. Others view it as a source of escapism and a reason to be happy about something which gives you joy.

 

The same can be said of religion. Some like to believe in it because it brings them peace and contentment. Others shun it because it has no basis whatsoever in reality.

 

Don't mean to go off topic here.

 

There is room on this forum for both camps! It is worth remembering now and again that we are indeed all Bills Brothers and we all want the team to win 10 straight Superbowls, at least conceptually speaking.

 

I know I do! I have wanted that for a very long time now.

Wouldn't be any fun to debate if we all agreed, right?

For a long time, I was definitely more pessimistic about the Bills, but right now I am very optimistic and I feel like I have good reason to be. I do have a much more positive view of EJ than you do. I really like his personality and I like his size and skill set. I think the issues he has can be improved with experience and coaching. I have a strong belief that he is going to be good. I get frustrated by those who are just negative no matter what and who refuse to see any chance that things can get better. Let's hope I'm right and the Bills get back to the top where they should be. Have a great day. Go Bills.

 

[KollegeStudnet]

Rivers is just damn good.

 

He managed the field well, audibled and always seemed to get his team into managable 3rd down conversions.

[Maddog69]

 

McKelvin, he consistently catches punts but drops interceptions. Can't fugure that one out..

Well, as the saying goes, if he could catch he'd be a wide receiver

[26CornerBlitz]

Fair enough. For the 10,000th time in the 10,000th thread on this topic:

 

I believe I have seen enough in EJ Manuel's career at FSU and the Bills to conclude his ultimate potential upside is "NOT GOOD ENOUGH". A whole lot of people around the NFL (outside of Buffalo) agree with me, by the way.

 

That may be characterized as "black and white". That is not where I am coming from in that analysis. I think EJ has many pros and cons to his game. His physique and general level of athleticism are superlative. He has prototypical size and wonderful arm strength. Ask Jeff Tuel if arm strength is important in this league.

 

He is a smart guy off the field. EJ has lots of positives in his favor.

 

I do not believe he is the heir to Jim Kelly, and that is the QB I have been waiting for for a long time now.

 

I also believe that we will never win a Superbowl without a Jim Kelly caliber QB on the team.

 

That is where my criticism of EJ begins and ends.

 

Analysis: He cannot get better because of what he showed at FSU. You are stuck in mental concrete with regard to EJ and any chance for improvement. Got it!

[Maddog69]

Rivers is just damn good.

 

He managed the field well, audibled and always seemed to get his team into managable 3rd down conversions.

Those friggin passes downfield that he seemed to drop in on a dime where so annoying (and impressive).

 

[26CornerBlitz]

What did the media say about Tom Brady in 2000?

[Fadingpain]

So, QB's never improve over time? Then why have coaches or personal trainers? I believe it is reasonable to expect EJ to improve as he gets experience. The first time he sees a particular defense or alignment, he might struggle. But over time, that should improve. It is doesn't then you know it is time to find another QB. That's why they call it "development". Coaches find a guy that has the right skillset along with the intelligence and work ethic they are looking for and they develop him. I expect to see improvement from EJ over time. Like I said, I'm fine with what I've seen from him so far because I wasn't expecting him to be Johnny Unitas immediately. I'm excited to see how he develops and how the offense as a whole gets better as they build upon things that they all do well and eliminate things they don't.

 

No offense brother, but you have committed a classic logical fallacy here: the strawman argument.

 

I never said "QBs never improve over time." You did.

 

I said I have seen enough in EJ's game going back to his FSU days to conclude his potential upside is not good enough.

 

Contrary to your assertion indicating that I believe the opposite, I believe that EJ's game has already improved and it will continue to improve. Incrementally.

 

Will it be enough? No. That's my opinion.

 

I'm entitled to that. You don't have to agree with it my friend.

 

This is an inaccurate and simple minded way to view NFL players. It's no wonder you have such a hard time seeing any improvement in EJ's game as you're cemented with a preconceived notion of what he was at FSU. Players can and regularly do improve with NFL coaching. Exhibit A is Tom Brady.

 

Would you like to bet some serious money that EJ never turns into anything close to Tom Brady at the NFL level?

 

I didn't think so.

[YoloinOhio]

This thread has become very entertaining.

[Fadingpain]

Simultaneously saying that we cannot use Buffalo's performance to predict the pace of wins, while saying that Miami's horrible play is an emerging reality is starkly contradictory.

 

I don't think anything can be concluded at this point...at all.

 

Huh? I am saying precisely the opposite of your assertions. Read harder.

[26CornerBlitz]

No offense brother, but you have committed a classic logical fallacy here: the strawman argument.

 

I never said "QBs never improve over time." You did.

 

I said I have seen enough in EJ's game going back to his FSU days to conclude his potential upside is not good enough.

 

Contrary to your assertion indicating that I believe the opposite, I believe that EJ's game has already improved and it will continue to improve. Incrementally.

 

Will it be enough? No. That's my opinion.

 

I'm entitled to that. You don't have to agree with it my friend.

 

 

 

Would you like to bet some serious money that EJ never turns into anything close to Tom Brady at the NFL level?

 

I didn't think so.

 

The point isn't that he'll be as good as Brady, it's that your "I saw him at FSU and he is what he is" is a fundamentally flawed way of viewing NFL talent at any position. No NFL scout looks at prospects this way. They project what they think a player can be in the NFL in their team's particular system with proper development, coaching, etc..

Edited September 25, 2014 by 26CornerBlitz

[thebandit27]

 

 

Huh? I am saying precisely the opposite of your assertions. Read harder.

 

No, you are not. The Bills are 2-1; you are saying that we cannot use that info to predict their record.

 

You are also saying that we can use Miami's record to predict how their season will go.

[Fadingpain]

Wouldn't be any fun to debate if we all agreed, right?

For a long time, I was definitely more pessimistic about the Bills, but right now I am very optimistic and I feel like I have good reason to be. I do have a much more positive view of EJ than you do. I really like his personality and I like his size and skill set. I think the issues he has can be improved with experience and coaching. I have a strong belief that he is going to be good. I get frustrated by those who are just negative no matter what and who refuse to see any chance that things can get better. Let's hope I'm right and the Bills get back to the top where they should be. Have a great day. Go Bills.

 

This is a nice reply and a good model for all us to follow.

 

Fair enough! You have more faith in EJ's potential than I do. That is probably a good way to put it.

 

Doesn't mean we won't both be united in our desire to see us beat Houston this Sunday, even if I do love Fitz.

 

Regarding general optimism with the team right now: I would agree that things looks as positive around here as they have looked in a very, very long time.

 

That is something to celebrate indeed.

[Rockinon]

I agree about not making excuses. From what I have seen, he nearly always throws terribly his first few passes of a game. Seems like a mental thing, because once he gets clicking, he is generally pretty decent. The coaches should make him throw on first down and second down so he can get that crap out of his system. Personally, I think the game is slowing down for him and that he has made some strides, but man does he start slow.

 

Another thing that bothers me is the run first, all the freaking time, mentality. This offense is without a doubt a run heavy system, but lets not get ridiculous! You don't always have to run to set up the pass, you can also pass to set up the run.

 

Another thing that drives me crazy is EJ often runs an option play and nearly always hands it off when he has a wide open side to run to himself. The play calling has improved, but still needs some work. EJ has improved, but still needs some work. No more excuses. It's time to start producing. I'd like to see him start a game throwing the ball..... may actually help him out.

[Rob's House]

 

 

The point isn't that he'll be as good as Brady, it's that your "I saw him at FSU and he is what he is" is a fundamentally flawed way of viewing NFL talent at any position. No NFL scout looks at prospects this way. They project what they think a player can be in the NFL in their team's particular system with proper development, coaching, etc..

 

Eh, it is relevant. If you've monitored a player's progress over 4 years you have a lot bigger sample size from which to evaluate his progress.