CountryCletus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 No offense intended to The Big Cat. I have always appreciated his football knowledge. But, to say that stats lie, is like saying that hammers break thumbs. They do! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Exaclty. I suppose the disconnect lies in TBC saying "For a while I've thought about what would constitute "garbage" time, and it seems there would have to be a ratio of point margin to seconds left in the game. There is a threshold from which no team (yet) has come back. I'm very curious to know what it is." That's more what I was saying, and you would need a ratio or system to eliminate the "garbage time" stats when comparing two team's stats. And as no system really exists, there's less room for error when you just use all the stats and assume garbage time is a non-factor. I don't think you can really define the threshold, but Chris Gragg's TD against Pittsburgh was prospectively garbage time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountryCletus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't think you can really define the threshold, but Chris Gragg's TD against Pittsburgh was prospectively garbage time. And 3 yards off sides He was LB deep when the ball was snapped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Yep. Those stats just bend the truth at times. They never downright lie. The idea is to stop the other team from scoring points, and turning the ball over. Indeed, You know what stats are filthy liars? Points differential. Who cares if your team outscored the other team, if your QB sucked while doing it. I've always hated how defenses are judged on yards allowed. Who cares if they drive from the 35 to the 1 if they still only get a field goal? Well, a lot of times field goals win games. So there is that. If a team allows the opposing offense to drive down the field and get a FG on every drive, they better have a pretty damn good offense to work with. No offense intended to The Big Cat. I have always appreciated his football knowledge. But, to say that stats lie, is like saying that hammers break thumbs. You hit the nail on the head with that one. Stats only lie effectively if you don't have the context for which to interpret them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The only stat that matters is number of wins. But if you want another stat - 0 TDs in 6 red zone trips. That needs to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't think you can really define the threshold, but Chris Gragg's TD against Pittsburgh was prospectively garbage time. And 3 yards off sides He was LB deep when the ball was snapped... Hahaha! This play actually came to mind when I was thinking about garbage stats from last year. Mostly because it made the EJ "highlight reel." For those that remember the context of the play, seeing it appear in that video was cringeworthy! No offense intended to The Big Cat. I have always appreciated his football knowledge. But, to say that stats lie, is like saying that hammers break thumbs. Without Deano weighing in, I had NO clue what this was supposed to mean. And then, on lap two, its clarity and poignancy was inspiring. The only stat that matters is number of wins. But if you want another stat - 0 TDs in 6 red zone trips. That needs to get better. Hmmmm...how many tut-tutters will swoop in to remind you that THIS stat is taken entirely out of context given that two of those six trips were in garbage time!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The only stat that matters is number of wins. But if you want another stat - 0 TDs in 6 red zone trips. That needs to get better. Technically they were 0 for 5, being that they did score 1 TD in their 6 trips inside the redzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Technically they were 0 for 5, being that they did score 1 TD in their 6 trips inside the redzone. Technically they were 1 for 7 (One TD and one missed FG) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think the point here is in this particular game, the dolphins got a bunch of inconsequential yards that will, looking purely at stats, understate the bills dominance. Yeah, but unless someone is going to go and do the same "garbage time stat" work for every game that's ever been played (or at least a few seasons worth) then it's really not even possible to know if the "non-garbage time stats" that the Bills allowed is really that impressive because there are no numbers to compare it to. How can a number all by itself be impressive? It can only be impressive in relation to what other teams have done in the recent past. Technically they were 1 for 7 (One TD and one missed FG) Yeah, but some of those red zone appearances came in garbage time when the Bills were happy to run it into the LoS and kick a FG (perhaps the Colts should have done the same thing...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Stats do not lie. Nor do they tell the truth. They are just data points. The degree to which statistics may reveal truths depends on the person interpreting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Yeah, but some of those red zone appearances came in garbage time when the Bills were happy to run it into the LoS and kick a FG (perhaps the Colts should have done the same thing...) That wasn't the case with the first three attempts in the first half. They need to come away with 6 not 3 on at least two of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Stats do not lie. Nor do they tell the truth. They are just data points. The degree to which statistics may reveal truths depends on the person interpreting them. They may not lie themselves but they are sneaky bastards and often weasels. And need to most always have some context. That wasn't the case with the first three attempts in the first half. They need to come away with 6 not 3 on at least two of those. True. I don't think they need to change anything though. EJ just hurried and missed a pass that was a score to Woods. Watkins ran a slightly wrong route that was a sure TD. They also tried a fade to Williams that they should be doing down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 True. I don't think they need to change anything though. EJ just hurried and missed a pass that was a score to Woods. Watkins ran a slightly wrong route that was a sure TD. They also tried a fade to Williams that they should be doing down there. Totally agree, and that's something that needs to be worked on and hopefully improves. And that's my point in the other thread. Those ARE the passes that Wilson was making as a rookie & second year QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Junk yards don't just get piled on the Bills. They're part of every game and I suppose even out by the end of the year. But the point is taken - our D played really well. The series where the Phins lost yards on 3 consecutive plays was beautiful to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Junk yards don't just get piled on the Bills. They're part of every game and I suppose even out by the end of the year. But the point is taken - our D played really well. The series where the Phins lost yards on 3 consecutive plays was beautiful to watch! 3rd and 36 without having committed a penalty. Tells the only story you need to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Technically they were 1 for 7 (One TD and one missed FG) Touché, forgot that missed field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Statistics are like words in that they only reveal the truth when viewed in their proper context. The Bible is full of truth but there are far too many in this world that are willing to remove the words from their context to serve some other agenda. Wars have been fought over the misinterpretation of words but at least with statistics in the sports world, our disagreements don't really matter. That's the beauty in it. Passionate discourse without life or death consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Statistics are like words in that they only reveal the truth when viewed in their proper context. The Bible is full of truth but there are far too many in this world that are willing to remove the words from their context to serve some other agenda. Wars have been fought over the misinterpretation of words but at least with statistics in the sports world, our disagreements don't really matter. That's the beauty in it. Passionate discourse without life or death consequences. This thread just got back on course, don't bring the Bible into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 League average is 1.87pts per drive. We are averaging 1.88 pts per drive. So, we may have a bad red zone offense, but, at least we're getting to the red zone to get those field goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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