What the Bills offseason tells us about draft plans

[Homey D. Clown]

I think what's worth paying attention to even more than offseason moves are who has visited Orchard Park for workouts. I have been tracking this for 3 years now, and a high number of our draft picks, especially those past round 1 have been a visitor. I'd also like to think that regardless of the offseason moves, if a top tier receiver or middle linebacker is on the board they will not hesitate to pull the trigger. If offseason moves were a really strong indicator of who will be picked, I think all these draft experts would be a lot more accurate with their prognostications. I look at these recent acquisitions as depth, rather than franchise building solutions.

 

The players really worthy of discussion around affecting the draft are:

 

1. Brandon Spikes - Age and a 1 year deal barely registers as a reason to pass on a top ranked LB

2. Mike Williams - Contract notwithstanding, it appears he has 5 years left on the restructure, has not proven to be anything more than a starting caliber player, like Stevie, a solid #2 player with moments of great play, but not game changing dominance. Barely a reason to pass on a big, athletic potential #1 type of guy.

 

Every other acquisition really doesn't factor in the decision making process in my opinion. I really think of a can't miss player is on the board, these moves have very little impact.

[Dragonborn10]

They can sit back and draft BPA and still fill needs. They have holes at RT, TE, DE, LB, back-up QB, and maybe franchise QB. They haven't tipped their hand at all in my opinion. They can trade up, down, or stand still and take BPA.

 

And Glenn stays at LT otherwsie he walks when his contract is up. He is a very good LT and will want to get paid LT money. If they force him to move to RT there is no way he resigns with the Bills.

[Jamie Nails]

They can sit back and draft BPA and still fill needs. They have holes at RT, TE, DE, LB, back-up QB, and maybe franchise QB. They haven't tipped their hand at all in my opinion. They can trade up, down, or stand still and take BPA.

 

And Glenn stays at LT otherwsie he walks when his contract is up. He is a very good LT and will want to get paid LT money. If they force him to move to RT there is no way he resigns with the Bills.

 

Let us not forget, they are all but guranteed to pick-up some vets post draft/June 1st cuts. They do it every year and will surely fill remaining holes, including possibly back-up QB at this time.

[John from Riverside]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

 

Luxy....you had me till you started talking about moving Glenn to RT......the rest of this made sense to me.

 

Why in the world would you move Glenn to LT when he is grading out as one of the best at LT and it is time to start renegotiating his contract? Why? You are simply going to alienate him by moving him to RT for a year and then telling him your going to pay him RT money.

 

I ALSO agree that the pick is probably going to be a OT.......but whether it be Mathews, Lewan, or a trade down then OT keep in mind that we have that player for what....FOUR years? and they will line up where we tell them to. Draft a OT who is good enough to play LT and pencil him in at RT.

 

For the love of christ dont move Glenn!

[Luxy312]

Luxy....you had me till you started talking about moving Glenn to RT......the rest of this made sense to me.

 

Why in the world would you move Glenn to LT when he is grading out as one of the best at LT and it is time to start renegotiating his contract? Why? You are simply going to alienate him by moving him to RT for a year and then telling him your going to pay him RT money.

 

I ALSO agree that the pick is probably going to be a OT.......but whether it be Mathews, Lewan, or a trade down then OT keep in mind that we have that player for what....FOUR years? and they will line up where we tell them to. Draft a OT who is good enough to play LT and pencil him in at RT.

 

For the love of christ dont move Glenn!

 

I don't disagree with you and I would not move Glenn to RT. If I put myself in Buffalo's mentality though, that's the conclusion that I come to. Matthews is clearly LT talent and drafting him early would suggest they would do that. Glenn has been a pleasant surprise and done a heck of a job at LT. I honestly hope that both Robinson and Matthews are gone before #9. That keeps it simple for me and doesn't create any of the drama that you're suggestion could (and I think would) be. Lewan is probably the best RT out there and would fit perfectly.

[Tipster19]

Excellent break down, I enjoyed reading it. I agree also, OT looks to be our first pick.

[KDIGGZ]

 

 

That we have 2 #2 receivers is debatable. Arguably the greatest Bills receiver in history in Andre Reed didn't manage to put together back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Stevie Johnson did it 3 years in a row before getting hurt last season. Prior to his injury, he was top-10 in productivity at his position. Not attacking you here, but your definition of "#1" is a bit lacking. He's averaged the same type of catch numbers that we've seen from Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston. Sure, he hasn't had Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Wes Welker type numbers, but that doesn't make him a #2. It certainly doesn't support the notion that he's over paid. My original point and the point to this thread is to share what I think their logic is, not to what they SHOULD do. If I'm being perfectly honest, their first and second round picks should be best available player. It just doesn't look to me though that that's how it's shaping up.

We need a Calvin Johnson, Roddy White type player. Stevie has had good production because he's been our only good receiver for years. But if we have the chance to get a real deal superstar at WR then we should go for it and not settle because we have Stevie and Williams. I think our pick will depend a lot on what happens in the picks ahead of us (will everyone go nuts picking QB's and leave some talented guys on the board?) so I guess we'll see

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

We need a Calvin Johnson, Roddy White type player. Stevie has had good production because he's been our only good receiver for years. But if we have the chance to get a real deal superstar at WR then we should go for it and not settle because we have Stevie and Williams. I think our pick will depend a lot on what happens in the picks ahead of us (will everyone go nuts picking QB's and leave some talented guys on the board?) so I guess we'll see

 

Benjamin from EJs alma mater intrigues the he!! Out of me. Watching his highlights he is a man among boys, soft hands and absolutely sick catch radius. I could see him being an absolute beast in the league despite the slower 40... Even with a DB in his pocket, just lob it up there, no one is beating him to the ball.

[BillsVet]

To a degree, this type of thinking is a little bit dated. Let's just look at Hughes and Lawson. They combined for 14.0 sacks last season. Do you really think the team needs a full time/every play defensive end opposite Mario? Why not play Hughes, Lawson and Wynn and just rotate them to stay fresh? There was certainly enough productivity at the position to merit that possibility.

 

Are sacks a metric to demonstrate run defense? Because the Bills weren't good there last season and Hughes and Lawson aren't DE's in a 4-3 scheme either. Wynn has more size, but he's a journeyman who won't magically become a starter in his 5th NFL season.

 

They need another DE for Schwartz's defense and that guy simply isn't on the roster right now.

[Luxy312]

Are sacks a metric to demonstrate run defense? Because the Bills weren't good there last season and Hughes and Lawson aren't DE's in a 4-3 scheme either. Wynn has more size, but he's a journeyman who won't magically become a starter in his 5th NFL season.

 

They need another DE for Schwartz's defense and that guy simply isn't on the roster right now.

 

The run defense wasn't weak because of the play of the front 4 but from the poor play of the linebackers (except Kiko) last season. If the Bills draft a DE early, I'll eat crow. However, if I'm a betting man, I would bet heavily against it.

[San-O]

I'm still not sure who's playing DE for this team aside from Mario. The guys on the roster aren't every down players (Hughes and Wynn) with nothing behind them. As much as people talk about a weaknesses elsewhere, they've got no starting caliber DE to line up opposite Williams.

 

I could see them going like this:

 

1. O line at # 9.

2. WR and trade down maybe?

3. DE or DB at # 9.

 

They really do need a RT. IMO.

[Maybe Someday]

Are sacks a metric to demonstrate run defense? Because the Bills weren't good there last season and Hughes and Lawson aren't DE's in a 4-3 scheme either. Wynn has more size, but he's a journeyman who won't magically become a starter in his 5th NFL season.

 

They need another DE for Schwartz's defense and that guy simply isn't on the roster right now.

Agree 100% with this. Hughes is a pass rusher only, a 1 dimensional player IMO. That's all he did last season. He played passing downs and guys like Branch played run downs. Branch is not athletic enough to set the edge like a DE needs to do in a 4-3. I also think that Lawson is too small to be a run down DE. IIRC, he only weighs 240 lbs.

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

After reading your post you have me convinced OT is the pick!! Nice bit of deduction...

[San-O]

Agree 100% with this. Hughes is a pass rusher only, a 1 dimensional player IMO. That's all he did last season. He played passing downs and guys like Branch played run downs. Branch is not athletic enough to set the edge like a DE needs to do in a 4-3. I also think that Lawson is too small to be a run down DE. IIRC, he only weighs 240 lbs.

 

Agreed on all counts. They could get by OK rotating RDEs in and out pretty much. Won't happen at RT.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Does anyone question if his apparent top talent at UB will translate to the nfl?

 

I do agree there will be some surprise slip they have to look harder at..

 

When I do question it I try to think of the Ohio State game. I just can't shake that 2 sack and interception return for a TD from my head.

 

I don't blame anyone for harboring such concerns, o20, but man the guy's body of work is just the complete package. He can get sacks, tackle for losses, force fumbles, track down runners, cover receivers and intercept passes...and he's a physical specimen. If he can make all of that work, even just to a lesser degree, then he'll be something special for some team.

 

However, I wouldn't trade up to get him, but that's just really because I believe the Bills still need all the picks they can get.

Edited April 9, 2014 by dollars 2 donuts

[Luxy312]

After reading your post you have me convinced OT is the pick!! Nice bit of deduction...

 

Thanks. My dad used to say that you can see a lot by looking. LOL.

[BillsVet]

Despite the free agent additions, the team still has some serious issues.

Agree 100% with this. Hughes is a pass rusher only, a 1 dimensional player IMO. That's all he did last season. He played passing downs and guys like Branch played run downs. Branch is not athletic enough to set the edge like a DE needs to do in a 4-3. I also think that Lawson is too small to be a run down DE. IIRC, he only weighs 240 lbs.

 

Exactly. It would be nice to have a better option at RT, free safety, and tight end. But the fact remains that there is almost nothing to play RDE opposite Mario in Schwartz's new defense. It will be a departure from Pettine's scheme and thus, requires different types of players.

 

I'm not sure their roster is in the condition to take BPA when their pick roles around on May 8th. It's probably a BPA at a position of need, and DE is one of them. Although in no way am I suggesting they'll make a move for Clowney or overdraft a guy like Dee Ford or Kony Ealy.

[Agent 91]

Does anyone question if his apparent top talent at UB will translate to the nfl?

 

I do agree there will be some surprise slip they have to look harder at..

 

I have to go with you on this. I love Mack... For a 3-4. He IS NOT scheme diverse!!! I have been screaming this since we have started draft talks. And why do people just talk aboout the Ohio St game. Why was he not as effective against San Diego St. Look I love him. Wish he was here with Pettine. I actually think that Cleveland is a great situation for him. I just dont see him being dominant in our system or any other system where he HAS to cover. His cover skills arent as good as advertized. That is his ONLY weakness. And the way he is built it would be a crime not to use him like James Harrison, or even Demarcus Ware.

[thebandit27]

I have to go with you on this. I love Mack... For a 3-4. He IS NOT scheme diverse!!! I have been screaming this since we have started draft talks. And why do people just talk aboout the Ohio St game. Why was he not as effective against San Diego St. Look I love him. Wish he was here with Pettine. I actually think that Cleveland is a great situation for him. I just dont see him being dominant in our system or any other system where he HAS to cover. His cover skills arent as good as advertized. That is his ONLY weakness. And the way he is built it would be a crime not to use him like James Harrison, or even Demarcus Ware.

 

I don't agree with that assessment at all. Mack would be a perfect fit as a 4-3 OLB. He can rush the passer, he can cover, he flows to the ball, etc.

 

Anybody that can lead their conference in sacks, FFs, and interceptions can do it all.

[Agent 91]

They can sit back and draft BPA and still fill needs. They have holes at RT, TE, DE, LB, back-up QB, and maybe franchise QB. They haven't tipped their hand at all in my opinion. They can trade up, down, or stand still and take BPA.

 

And Glenn stays at LT otherwsie he walks when his contract is up. He is a very good LT and will want to get paid LT money. If they force him to move to RT there is no way he resigns with the Bills.

 

Unless we pay him like a LT. But I have to say I was on the he wont be able to play tackle in the league side. He proved me wrong. Im a believer. I would not move him to the right side for anything. He is a player you build your line around.. If that makes any sense.

 

I don't agree with that assessment at all. Mack would be a perfect fit as a 4-3 OLB. He can rush the passer, he can cover, he flows to the ball, etc.

 

Anybody that can lead their conference in sacks, FFs, and interceptions can do it all.

 

He can cover based on what? I have watched every game he has played in college and have not seen it.

 

Also he was 5th in the conference in ints with 3 Jimmy Ward from northern Il lead the conference with 7. sorry for the edit. but i didnt see your point about the ints

Edited April 9, 2014 by Agent 91