The Margin of Error -- and Success -- is Razor Thin

[Just in Atlanta]

The Falcons game was the most painful of the year for this fan.

 

Yeah, the Chiefs debacle at the end was bad. We SHOULD have beaten them (with a third-string undrafted rookie QB). But the Falcons? We were SUPPOSED to. Further, it ended our playoff hopes. Fourteen !@#$ing years.

 

Which got me thinking. I've seen a lot of posts here decrying how "far" the Bills are from postseason glory.

 

Nonsense.

 

This team is five plays away from being 9-3.

 

We've been throttled by the Saints and Steelers and were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets the first go-around. That's three games we should've lost.

 

Barring those games, we're one glorious play away from winning each one.

 

We COULD have beaten the Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Chiefs and Falcons. You're probably saying "So could any team." But if you look at these losses, we're literally talking about one play each game -- a pick 6, a missed tackle, a stripped ball -- away from winning. We couldn't say that the previous two years.

 

On the negative side, this team is also three plays from being 1-11.

 

Yeah, we could've lost the Panthers or Dolphins games. A great fade route to SJ and a strip sack on Tannehill won those games. Such a razor thin margin.

 

But the good news is, razor thin can swing both ways ... given the right pieces are in play.

 

What's the point?

 

That's serious progress, even though the record doesn't indicate it. Last year, we were blown away so much it was ridiculous. Not a homer, or eternal optimist, talking here. Just looking at the situation rationally.

 

We're literally three pieces away from being on the right side of the blade.

1. If EJ Manuel becomes the quarterback that management thought he was, that's one glaring piece. I'm neither sold or down on the guy yet. But he's trending in the right direction IMO.
    
   
2. We're sorely lacking a big, fast, physical tight end. Watching Tony Gonzalez, Gronk and Jimmy Graham violently pluck balls out of the air, run deep routes, and not go down at first contact, and it becomes obvious this team could greatly benefit.
    
   
3. The final piece? A shutdown corner. I focused on the Falcons' corners on Sunday, and for the most part they were playing man to man. They were glue. I watched ours. Very loose coverage to say the least. A key part of Pettine's attacking defense relies on shutdown corners. You fill this piece, and our attacking defense is legit on all levels.
   

Everything else is depth in my strong opinion. O line? OK. D line? One of the best in the league. Safeties? Barring Byrd leaving, we appear set. Linebackers? They actually have done pretty well this year. What a fine pick Alonso was!

 

We've witnessed the amazing rise of the Chiefs ... and the deep fall of the Falcons ... in ONE year. The same can easily happen to the Bills. Since there's not much further to drop, I have to believe the opposite will happen.

 

The future is bright my friends. I know you've heard that 13 times before. But I feel this team is damn close.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Just in Atlanta

[DDD]

The ultimate statistic is your record. The Bills have lost twice as many games as they have won. That my friend is a bad football team no matter how you try to convince yourself otherwise.

Edited December 3, 2013 by DDD

[QCity]

No margin for error in the NFL

[dascottbills28]

The Falcons game was the most painful of the year for this fan.

 

Yeah, the Chiefs debacle at the end was bad. We SHOULD have beaten them (with a third-string undrafted rookie QB). But the Falcons? We were SUPPOSED to. Further, it ended our playoff hopes. Fourteen !@#$ing years.

 

Which got me thinking. I've seen a lot of posts here decrying how "far" the Bills are from postseason glory.

 

Nonsense.

 

This team is five plays away from being 9-3.

 

We've been throttled by the Saints and Steelers and were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets the first go-around. That's three games we should've lost.

 

Barring those games, we're one glorious play away from winning each one.

 

We COULD have beaten the Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Chiefs and Falcons. You're probably saying "So could any team." But if you look at these losses, we're literally talking about one play each game -- a pick 6, a missed tackle, a stripped ball -- away from winning. We couldn't say that the previous two years.

 

Disclaimer: This team is also three plays from being 1-11.

 

Yeah, we could've easily lost the Panthers (horribly-played outing by the way) or Dolphins games. A great fade route to SJ and a strip sack on Tannehill won those games. The only game we dominated so far has been the Jets. Such a razor thin margin.

 

But the good news is, razor thin can swing both ways ... given the right pieces are in play.

 

What's the point?

 

That's serious progress, even though the record doesn't indicate it. Last year, we were blown away so much it was ridiculous. Not a homer, or eternal optimist, talking here. Just looking at the situation rationally.

 

We're literally three pieces away from being on the right side of the blade.

1. If EJ Manuel becomes the quarterback that management thought he was, that's one glaring piece. I'm neither sold or down on the guy yet. But he's trending in the right direction IMO.
    
   
2. We're sorely lacking a big, fast, physical tight end. Watching Tony Gonzalez, Gronk and Jimmy Graham violently pluck balls out of the air, run deep routes, and not go down at first contact, and it becomes obvious this team could greatly benefit.
    
   
3. The final piece? A shutdown corner. I focused on the Falcons' corners on Sunday, and for the most part they were playing man to man. They were glue. I watched ours. Very lose coverage to say the least. A key part of Pettine's attacking defense relies on shutdown corners. You fill this piece, and our attacking defense is legit on all levels.
   

Everything else is depth in my strong opinion. O line? OK. D line? One of the best in the league. Safeties? Barring Byrd leaving, we appear set. Linebackers? They actually have done pretty well this year. What a fine pick Alonso was!

 

We've witnessed the amazing rise of the Chiefs ... and the deep fall of the Falcons ... in ONE year. The same can easily happen to the Bills. Since there's not much further to drop, I have to believe the opposite will happen.

 

The future is bright my friends. I know you've heard that 13 times before. But I feel this team is damn close.

The thing is, I feel like every year around this time we all starting saying and thinking the same thing. The problem with this team over the past 10+ years is there inability to come up big in the clutch and make that one big play that separates a win or a loss. This team continually finds a way to lose and until we break this trend we will be no better than a 6-10, 7-9 mediocre team.....

[Just in Atlanta]

The ultimate statistic is your record. The Bills have lost twice as many games as they have won. That my friend is a bad football team no matter how you try to convince yourself otherwise.

They are not winners this year. No debate. But if you want to convince yourself that this team will never be winners, that's your call.

 

The thing is, I feel like every year around this time we all starting saying and thinking the same thing. The problem with this team over the past 10+ years is there inability to come up big in the clutch and make that one big play that separates a win or a loss. This team continually finds a way to lose and until we break this trend we will be no better than a 6-10, 7-9 mediocre team.....

We find ways to lose because we don't have the right pieces. We had Fitz as a QB last year for crying out loud. He's one dimensional. This year, a rookie QB, HC and OC. We are trending up.

 

To sum up the post: If Chandler or SJ holds on to the ball, we're all gleefully talking playoffs. Since they didn't it's another wasted year. THAT is razor thin. Under the Gailey regime, we were blown out of the water so many times. That has not been the case this year.

[The Big Cat]

They are not winners this year. No debate. But if you want to convince yourself that this team will never be winners, that's your call.

 

 

We find ways to lose because we don't have the right pieces. We had Fitz as a QB last year for crying out loud. He's one dimensional. This year, a rookie QB, HC and OC. We are trending up.

 

If Russ Brandon is serious about winning, he'll organize a world record breaking community spiritual cleanse. As many Bills fans as show up will form a giant ring around Ralph Wilson stadium, they'll join hands and a spiritual guide will scatter burnt offerings and lead the attendees through the incantations needed to appease the spirits upon whose burial place the stadium was built.

 

That's right. Western New York has a rich Native American and wartime history. There are restless souls infringing on our team's ability to put together a winning season. There's no other explanation for being on the losing side of EVERY razor-thin margin these past fourteen years. Four consecutive Super Bowl losses and new, seemingly improbable ways to snatch defeat from victory each and every year--these are the works of intangible forces that no amount of analytics can ever succumb.

Edited December 3, 2013 by The Big Cat

[bobobonators]

They are not winners this year. No debate. But if you want to convince yourself that this team will never be winners, that's your call.

 

 

We find ways to lose because we don't have the right pieces. We had Fitz as a QB last year for crying out loud. He's one dimensional. This year, a rookie QB, HC and OC. We are trending up.

 

To sum up the post: If Chandler or SJ holds on to the ball, we're all gleefully talking playoffs. Since they didn't it's another wasted year. THAT is razor thin. Under the Gailey regime, we were blown out of the water so many times. That has not been the case this year.

I understand everything you say and I agree. Problem is though, that it's almost the same story every single year. Team is literally cursed for the time being. Needs to be broken.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Nothing supernatural. As Manuel gains experience, this will be a playoff team. That kid is not going his whole career without reaching the postseason.

[Just in Atlanta]

I'd blame the Smoking Man before I blame any curse.

 

[Fan in Chicago]

The future is bright my friends. I know you've heard that 13 times before. But I feel this team is damn close.

 

I like most of what you have written esp the part that the thin margin between winning and losing can cut both ways.

Agree that a lot depends on how EJ develops and also that we need a good TE.

On item #3 though, I would like to see yet another LB to complement Alonso and Lawson. Bradham and Moats may be good depth but they do not have the impact of the former two. So my off-season shopping list (draft or FA) is (in no particular order):

Big WR, G, TE, LB, RB, CB

Edited December 3, 2013 by Fan in Chicago

[Just in Atlanta]

I like most of what you have written esp the part that the thin margin between winning and losing can cut both ways.

Agree that a lot depends on how EJ develops and also that we need a good TE.

On item #3 though, I would like to see yet another LB to complement Alonso and Lawson. Bradham and Moats may be good depth but they do not have the impact of the former two. So my off-season shopping list (draft or FA) is (in no particular order):

Big WR, G, TE, LB, RB, CB

I see your point. But getting a No. 1 LB, big Wr AND elite TE will be next to impossible.

 

I say we focus on CB and TE, and cash in our chips if we have to to get em.

[papazoid]

"Football is ninety percent mental. The other half is physical." - yogi

 

 

"the Bills make too many mental mistakes." - papa

[BuffaloWings]

The ultimate statistic is your record. The Bills have lost twice as many games as they have won. That my friend is a bad football team no matter how you try to convince yourself otherwise.

 

Disagree...bad football teams get blown out frequently and look lethargic, pathetic, out-played, and out-coached almost every week. That's not the Bills.

 

The Bills are a decent team that doesn't have the experience or the know-how to close out games of which they are in control. If you flip just 4 games in the opposite direction (NE, Cin, KC, & Atl), they're 8-4. You could even trade the NE game for the Cleveland game, which they were also in control of.

 

I see a different team on the field this year than last year. When they have the pieces in place, there's some energy, they're taking the ball away, they're scoring, and there's little reason to believe they're going to lose. Last year, they got run over big time, were rarely "in the game", and you just felt every week like there was no energy and no reason to play. This team is different and I credit the coaching staff.

 

All of that said, good teams find ways to win games like the ones this team has lost. I certainly won't say the Bills are a good team, but they're far from a bad team.

Edited December 3, 2013 by BuffaloWings

[Just in Atlanta]

On another note, some enterprising fan needs to make a song / video like this a la Bills.

 

[NFL95MelGrayDomination]

I like the OPs point of view. My major concern is our continued lack of being able to stop the run. Now I know Alonso over-pursued some of the big gamers on Sunday, but he did get sucked up into some blocks. My point is looking at all the teams that are good on defense they have a quality space eating DT like a Ted Washington. I think the Bills would be well suited to acquire a top guy, think Terrence Cody type of player who can occupy 1-2 blockers on short yardage & run downs.

[yungmack]

If Russ Brandon is serious about winning, he'll organize a world record breaking community spiritual cleanse. As many Bills fans as show up will form a giant ring around Ralph Wilson stadium, they'll join hands and a spiritual guide will scatter burnt offerings and lead the attendees through the incantations needed to appease the spirits upon whose burial place the stadium was built.

 

That's right. Western New York has a rich Native American and wartime history. There are restless souls infringing on our team's ability to put together a winning season. There's no other explanation for being on the losing side of EVERY razor-thin margin these past fourteen years. Four consecutive Super Bowl losses and new, seemingly improbable ways to snatch defeat from victory each and every year--these are the works of intangible forces that no amount of analytics can ever succumb.

At this point, I'm up for anything, even this. BTW, supposedly a curse was put on the team (or the stadium) by Seneca priests for desecrating the burial grounds so I think you'd have to have them do the ceremony to remove it.

[The Big Cat]

At this point, I'm up for anything, even this. BTW, supposedly a curse was put on the team (or the stadium) by Seneca priests for desecrating the burial grounds so I think you'd have to have them do the ceremony to remove it.

 

It's an oddly shaped ball. You don't get all the bounces. But you get some of them. No other plausible explanation exists.

[Jauronimo]

The Falcons game was the most painful of the year for this fan.

 

Yeah, the Chiefs debacle at the end was bad. We SHOULD have beaten them (with a third-string undrafted rookie QB). But the Falcons? We were SUPPOSED to. Further, it ended our playoff hopes. Fourteen !@#$ing years.

 

Which got me thinking. I've seen a lot of posts here decrying how "far" the Bills are from postseason glory.

 

Nonsense.

 

This team is five plays away from being 9-3.

 

We've been throttled by the Saints and Steelers and were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets the first go-around. That's three games we should've lost.

 

Barring those games, we're one glorious play away from winning each one.

 

We COULD have beaten the Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Chiefs and Falcons. You're probably saying "So could any team." But if you look at these losses, we're literally talking about one play each game -- a pick 6, a missed tackle, a stripped ball -- away from winning. We couldn't say that the previous two years.

 

On the negative side, this team is also three plays from being 1-11.

 

Yeah, we could've lost the Panthers or Dolphins games. A great fade route to SJ and a strip sack on Tannehill won those games. Such a razor thin margin.

 

But the good news is, razor thin can swing both ways ... given the right pieces are in play.

 

What's the point?

 

That's serious progress, even though the record doesn't indicate it. Last year, we were blown away so much it was ridiculous. Not a homer, or eternal optimist, talking here. Just looking at the situation rationally.

 

We're literally three pieces away from being on the right side of the blade.

1. If EJ Manuel becomes the quarterback that management thought he was, that's one glaring piece. I'm neither sold or down on the guy yet. But he's trending in the right direction IMO.
    
   
2. We're sorely lacking a big, fast, physical tight end. Watching Tony Gonzalez, Gronk and Jimmy Graham violently pluck balls out of the air, run deep routes, and not go down at first contact, and it becomes obvious this team could greatly benefit.
    
   
3. The final piece? A shutdown corner. I focused on the Falcons' corners on Sunday, and for the most part they were playing man to man. They were glue. I watched ours. Very loose coverage to say the least. A key part of Pettine's attacking defense relies on shutdown corners. You fill this piece, and our attacking defense is legit on all levels.
   

Everything else is depth in my strong opinion. O line? OK. D line? One of the best in the league. Safeties? Barring Byrd leaving, we appear set. Linebackers? They actually have done pretty well this year. What a fine pick Alonso was!

 

We've witnessed the amazing rise of the Chiefs ... and the deep fall of the Falcons ... in ONE year. The same can easily happen to the Bills. Since there's not much further to drop, I have to believe the opposite will happen.

 

The future is bright my friends. I know you've heard that 13 times before. But I feel this team is damn close.

While I am optimistic about the future as well, we could also make the case that Bills are 3 plays away from being 1-11. Carolina, Baltimore and Miami could have gone the other way just as easily.

 

We have been competitive in every game aside from Picksburgh and Saints. Manuel just put two pretty nice games together. Lets see how Manuel finishes off the season.

[reddogblitz]

There have been many positive things about this year. The play of EJ. The Bills leading the league in sacks. The close games? I'm not so sure this isnew.

 

Chris Brown had an article on buffalobills.com a month ago or so. I looked for it but couldn't find it. But in it, he said in the last 13 years, the Bills have been in 128 games where they were within a TD or ahead by a TD or less in the 4th quarter. That's an average of 10 per year. Of those games, the Bills have a .385 winning percentage.

 

If we look at this year, we've had 9 of these close games. We were blown out by Pitt and Saints and we blew out Jets. Of those 9, we were 3-6. .333. Pretty much exactly or slightly worse than what we've been doing for the last 13 years.

 

We lose because we shoot ourselves in the foot, not because we don't have a good shutdown corner or a TE or EJ needs more work. Would any of that gotten SJ to not fumble or us not give up a punt return for a TD and another long one vs Clowns? You look back at all those close losses and we did something stupid or choked to put us behind the 8 ball.

 

Until we stop with the shots to the foot, we're no better IMHO.

[Dibs]

I understand everything you say and I agree. Problem is though, that it's almost the same story every single year. Team is literally cursed for the time being. Needs to be broken.

 

Though I think that sometimes there is unrealistic optimism after a season there is more often solid base realism by people stating just how far away we are from being competitive.

 

The situation atm is greatly different IMO.

 

The 2011 off-season we were looking for 12 starters(and major contributors). SS, CBx3, DEx2, LBx3, QB, WR3, OT

 

Last off-season we were looking for 11 starters(and major contributors). SS, CB2, CB3, LBx3, DE, QB, OG, WR2, WR3

 

This off-season we will likely be only looking for 4 starters(and major contributors). LB, OG, RT, TE.

 

That isn't to say that there are players who we couldn't improve on outside of those 4 positions.....but players like Urbik & SJ are all of a level higher than those mentioned that have needed replacing. Realistically TE & RT could be added to the previous two years lists but it is only now that we can think of replacing okay(but not solid-good) players.

Edited December 5, 2013 by Dibs