How many games does Thad Lewis have to win to remain the starter

[26CornerBlitz]

I was thinking that Thad seemed more efficient in both games, than EJ in any of his. The PFF ratings seem to agree. As long as he continues playing like this I wouldn't be surprised if Marrone keeps him in.

 

Will not happen!

[Alphadawg7]

"Guess what, only 2 teams in the NFL have scored 20+ points every week this season...Bills and Broncos."

This is a crap fallacy stat. Our offense, with or without golden boy savior EJ, has not scored 20+ points every game. Pick sixes and fumble returns do not count as offensive points. Sad thing is, with our turnover differential, we should be scoring a lot more than 20 points a game. Sorry.

 

"We could EASILY be 5-0 under EJ if not for about 3 plays. Offensive penalties on OL, defensive penalties, dropped passes, and stupid ST plays are why we lost those games. EJ had us there ready to win. Yes EJ made some mistakes too, but at the same time he played well enough for us to be undefeated under him while other areas of the team failed."

 

This is one of those lines we look back to in the offseason and laugh. EJ played well enough for us to be undefeated? 5 bad turnovers in 5 games? Meanwhile, our defense picks off Flacco 5 times, and EJ barely gets us the win. Good thing the defense didn't "fail" by only getting 3 interceptions,huh? Or else we would've lost. This may be the most absurd statement I've ever seen. Even I believe the defense bailed Thad out yesterday.

 

"EJ has a higher ceiling, was hand picked by this regime to be the future"

Higher ceiling means what exactly? We just believe in him more? We took him in the first round, so we gotta roll with him? Please. And hand-picked by this regime to be the future? Like Losman right? I'm sure you are a poster who disliked Nix immensely, but you seem pretty confident in his handpicked successor Whaley. I'm sure Whaley had nothing to do with some of our draft woes.

 

 

 

"Why is it FireChan that you are are ALWAYS in every topic hard up on the most ridiculous and most unpopular stances?"

I'm not in every topic, don't be foolish. And I always disagree with you because you are so full of unbridled optimism that I cannot abstain from dissecting everything you said until you don't know what's real anymore. Remember when I said Spiller's production would decrease, and you wanted to bet money it wouldn't? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

 

"Defend all you want, but the evidence is DEEEEEEP on this."

Disagreeing with your unrealistic expectations and hopes doesn't equal trolling. Sorry.

 

"But for Sh*ts and giggles, let me just point out that the QBR is WIDELY considered the best barometer for measuring the overall effectiveness of a QB in todays NFL. No system is perfect, but this one is pretty much accepted as the most in depth and most accurate measure available in a single statistic by a mile.

 

EJ QBR 42.2

Thad QBR 22.2"

 

Thad has played 2 games, EJ has played 5. You might as well bring up that EJ has more TD passes this season. Remember when EJ melted down against the Jets? Or when He had a whopping QBR of 9 in the Baltimore game? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

 

 

 

"I think (hope?) firechan is just trolling"

Sometimes, I hope so too.

 

LMAO at this gibberish...

 

1. I didnt say you are in EVERY topic...I said every topic that you ARE in.

2. Spiller ahahhahahaha....really? Thats your validation? You knocked Spillers ability...you want bask in the glory of his stats while completely ignoring he is hurt, and has been for a long time now. Its a substantial injury to a RB who should NOT even be playing on it. The fact he is says a lot about him, but from a football sense, they need to rest him as he cant contribute much like this.

3. Saying that Thad has 2 games and EJ 5 when I mention QBR shows your desperation. Adding in "I might as well count TD totals" is stupid. QBR is based on a PER GAME AVERAGE...has ZERO to do with totals. In fact, TOTALS have no impact in the QBR there fore how many games each have played are irrelevant to the ratings. And its just your troll like ways to argue something you cant make an argument for.

4. Hate to break it to you, everyone thinks you troll. Yet to see a thread where you werent referenced as a troll.

5. Blind optimism? How do I have blind optimism? Am I saying we are going to win our division? Did I announce some players HOF candidacy? What exactly am I some homer optimistic about? That Thad IS NOT outplaying EJ? Stats, eyes, and games have proven that.

6. Actually I initially like Nix, and he isnt as bad as his rep. He made some solid moves for us. Did he miss on some things, yes, but all GM's do. Was he the best GM in football...not by a mile, but he also wasnt the worst. And yes, I really like what the new FO has done, including Whaley.

7. And we are the ONLY team in the NFL not named the Broncos to score 20+ per game...and NO I did not give all the credit to EJ and/Thad...but that is a fact, we are.

8. None of this matters, you will ONLY, and I mean ONLY, take the most argumentive, negative, unpopular, and controversial stance on ALL topics you choose to enter...classic definition of trolling. You have yet to prove me wrong. I dont even have to open a thread to already know what you will have said in it...and I have to be wrong on that.

[OvrOfficiousJerk]

 

 

Legit quesiton...and the answer is yes. The old QB Rating was so irrelevant that no one ever used it when evaluating a QB outside of media and fans. No scouts, GM's, coaches, etc put any stock into it what so ever as it had no analytical value of a QB's true impact in a game. That being said, the QBR ESPN developed is definitely looked at and referenced a lot by people who judge QB's for a living. Again, no one rating is the end all be all of evaluation, however, the QBR has a lot of value as a single stat for a glimpse into how a QB impacted a game on an individual level.

 

Media almost always references it now when comparing QB's too and its quickly becoming the most accepted stat to look at QB productivity. A lot of fans who have yet to familiarize it, mostly don't because they dont know enough about it nor do they give it much thought because ESPN developed it. ESPN however has developed quite a few statistical trackers in multiple sports that are quite a bit more accurate and important than any stats that existed before.

 

The difference between EJ and Thad's QBR is actually substantial. Again, I dont say this to knock Thad, because I am impressed with what he has done so far given the circumstances. But at the end of the day, Thad has clearly not outplayed EJ and the QBR certainly shows that. I would say Thad has filled him in a comparable fashion, which is a good thing. But definitely not in a way to take EJ's job. And if we beat NO, that does not mean we only did because of Thad being our starting QB. We have been in every single game this year under EJ too, and were a few plays away from him being undefeated. Our team PPG are about the same under both QB's. WIns and losses will not be what separates the two QB's as EJ played well enough for this team to be undefeated, just like Thad did enough for him to be 2-0 (even though we are 1-1 with him). Thad is going to have to grossly out play EJ to take the job from our number 1 pick the staff is VERY high on. And stats show that that has not happened yet, nor are there signs its on the horizons that he suddenly starts taking over games.

 

Thanks for the info. I always thought it was self-serving when ESPN would reference it in their reports and such, but I do agree its a better measure than the old passer rating. My only problem with it from a conceptual standpoint is that it marks a 50% dropoff from EJ to Thad, which I think is excessive, but maybe will dissipate as we see more from T-Lew.

 

But I also agree by any quantitative - and qualitative - measure EJ is superior to Thad. For me, the question is how many games does Thad need to lose until you rush EJ back. Last year the Fighting Irish QB Everett Golson had a concussion during the Stanford game, and his backup Tommy Rees finished that game admirably. Next week ND were able to give Golson a week off without rushing him back and without a significant dropoff in QB quality, and I see some parallels with EJs situation as well

[Superb Owl]

Will not happen!

 

What won't happen? Thad won't keep outplaying EJ? Or, Marrone plays EJ regardless?

[EJManuel]

Really? I think Thad is better in every conceivable way.

 

I don't understand how you could think that!

[26CornerBlitz]

What won't happen? Thad won't keep outplaying EJ? Or, Marrone plays EJ regardless?

 

Thad hasn't been "outplaying" EJ for one and secondly when EJ returns to full health he will reclaim his starting job.

[Alphadawg7]

Thanks for the info. I always thought it was self-serving when ESPN would reference it in their reports and such, but I do agree its a better measure than the old passer rating. My only problem with it from a conceptual standpoint is that it marks a 50% dropoff from EJ to Thad, which I think is excessive, but maybe will dissipate as we see more from T-Lew.

 

But I also agree by any quantitative - and qualitative - measure EJ is superior to Thad. For me, the question is how many games does Thad need to lose until you rush EJ back. Last year the Fighting Irish QB Everett Golson had a concussion during the Stanford game, and his backup Tommy Rees finished that game admirably. Next week ND were able to give Golson a week off without rushing him back and without a significant dropoff in QB quality, and I see some parallels with EJs situation as well

 

I also agree that I would not say EJ has played twice as good as Thad, but also Thad has only had 2 games, one of which was not very good (ironically he won that one) overall. Once Thad has 5 games under his belt, I would expect that number to be closer to EJ. My only point is showing those numbers is that Thad isn't out playing EJ, and a team who chose to build around a rookie QB they are VERY high on is not going to give up on him when he has done enough to win us every game hes played in so far as a rookie for a guy who isnt doing any better.

[DC Tom]

Oh, God, PLEASE mods, give me a hunting license in this thread. I'm begging you.

[FireChan]

LMAO at this gibberish...

 

1. I didnt say you are in EVERY topic...I said every topic that you ARE in.

2. Spiller ahahhahahaha....really? Thats your validation? You knocked Spillers ability...you want bask in the glory of his stats while completely ignoring he is hurt, and has been for a long time now. Its a substantial injury to a RB who should NOT even be playing on it. The fact he is says a lot about him, but from a football sense, they need to rest him as he cant contribute much like this.

3. Saying that Thad has 2 games and EJ 5 when I mention QBR shows your desperation. Adding in "I might as well count TD totals" is stupid. QBR is based on a PER GAME AVERAGE...has ZERO to do with totals. In fact, TOTALS have no impact in the QBR there fore how many games each have played are irrelevant to the ratings. And its just your troll like ways to argue something you cant make an argument for.

4. Hate to break it to you, everyone thinks you troll. Yet to see a thread where you werent referenced as a troll.

5. Blind optimism? How do I have blind optimism? Am I saying we are going to win our division? Did I announce some players HOF candidacy? What exactly am I some homer optimistic about? That Thad IS NOT outplaying EJ? Stats, eyes, and games have proven that.

6. Actually I initially like Nix, and he isnt as bad as his rep. He made some solid moves for us. Did he miss on some things, yes, but all GM's do. Was he the best GM in football...not by a mile, but he also wasnt the worst. And yes, I really like what the new FO has done, including Whaley.

7. And we are the ONLY team in the NFL not named the Broncos to score 20+ per game...and NO I did not give all the credit to EJ and/Thad...but that is a fact, we are.

8. None of this matters, you will ONLY, and I mean ONLY, take the most argumentive, negative, unpopular, and controversial stance on ALL topics you choose to enter...classic definition of trolling. You have yet to prove me wrong. I dont even have to open a thread to already know what you will have said in it...and I have to be wrong on that.

 

1. No you didn't. Do you know what words mean? This is a petty point.

2. You said Spiller doesn't get hurt, remember? Don't worry, I pulled up the posts in that rushing yard count thread.

3. And if you took two of EJ's games, his total would be less. That's why I mentioned his 9 QBR, which you conveniently ignored. Don't even get me started on his abysmal YPA stat.

4. Don't caaaare

5. Blind optimism in Spiller, when you and me first started clashing, and I was proven correct.

6. Fair enough, didn't expect that.

7. And it's a fallacy stat. To compare our team to the Broncos and indicate we share any of their talent is an insult to talent.

8. See Spiller, CJ. Also, don't caaaare.

Edited October 22, 2013 by FireChan

[Alphadawg7]

I don't understand how you could think that!

 

Because he says it to get a rise out of people or he has literally no idea of what football is...

[Bangarang]

 

 

What won't happen? Thad won't keep outplaying EJ? Or, Marrone plays EJ regardless?

 

Both. Thad hasn't started outplaying EJ either.

[Superb Owl]

Thad hasn't been "outplaying" EJ for one and secondly when EJ returns to full health he will reclaim his starting job.

 

To me, Thad is consistent where EJ is not. Thad makes the easy plays where EJ does not. He is able to take something off the ball at the right time, to make it easy to catch. He is able to pinpoint the ball to make it easy to catch. I see the opposite a lot of times from EJ. Obviously we don't agree but that's what I see

[Luis Mendoza]

I don't understand how you could think that!

 

I don't understand how this board is so high on EJ thus far. We all want EJ to be the "future", the next big thing for our franchise, that is why we took him in the first round and passed on many others. But EJ has done absolutely NOTHING so far that has made me think, yes that is our guy, sign him up long time. He has been average. The NYJ game was one of the must frustrating and pathetic performances from a QB I have seen in a long long time. The man could not even keep the ball in bounds.... Yes this is one game, but his entire body of work has not shown enough to prove he is our franchise QB. He has made many poor decisions and inaccurate throws.

 

Everyone saying Thad is a "vet" is out of their mind. Since when is sitting in the film room and holding a clipboard for 2 plus years make you a veteran? The kid made his 3rd career start against Miami and is still getting used to seeing live action.

 

Neither of these guys have had that WOW game or proven anything yet. Their both similar, young developing quarterbacks. If you took the draft pick, the history, the name and number of their backs, you would be hard pressed to call either one of them better at this point. Many on this board have fallen in love with EJ as the next Allah and I have no idea where it is coming from....

 

 

I want to see AlphaDawg and FireChan brawl with baseball bats....

 

Because he says it to get a rise out of people or he has literally no idea of what football is...

 

I can't speak for other threads, but "FireChan" is definitely +1 on this one. Don't call someone a troll for losing an argument.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Luis Mendoza

[reddogblitz]

While I certainly think if we're 6 - 5 or better when EJ is healthy, Coach Marrone will probably go with Thaddeus because he has said he likes to go with the hot hand.

 

However, as of right now they are both doing about the same.

 

In games started, with EJ we are 2-2 and 17-17 in game 5, with Thaddeus 1-1. Draw

Completion % EJ 56.7 Thaddeus 62.5 Advantage Thaddeus

TDs to Int EJ 5/3 Thaddeus 2/1 Draw with slight edge to Thaddeus

QB Rating EJ 79.4 Thaddeus 85.3 Advantage Thaddeus

YPA EJ 6.6 Thaddeus 6.5 Draw with slight edge to EJ

Yards Per Game Passing EJ 197 Thaddeus 209 Draw pretty much based on EJ not getting to finish game 5

Rush yards Per Game EJ 18 Thaddeus 15 Advantage EJ

 

They're pretty much the same guy at this point.

 

Since EJ was the starter I would think it this continues, unless we're 6-5, EJ gets his starting job back. I have no clue who has the most "upside" whatever that is.

Edited October 22, 2013 by reddogblitz

[MarkKelso'sHelmet]

Oh, God, PLEASE mods, give me a hunting license in this thread. I'm begging you.

 

you want to murder people who don't agree with you about football? you need psycho therapy, man. this poster is consistently my least favorite thing about reading these message boards.

 

yeah yeah, i know, i'm a retard. get your sniper rifle and murder me from your balcony.

 

yeah yeah, i know, i'm a retard, because i don't find your psychotic sense of humor funny. Any other caustic responses I'm missing?

 

Every time you don't agree with someone on these boards, you say the same few things, which are essentially the same thing: "close down the thread/Mods why is there a thread here? or "oh my god the OP is a retard." I'd say you've posted some variation of this 20 thousand times. Are you looking forward to your next 20 thousand times saying it?

 

And I'm sure you are proud of your inability to communicate with any member of the human species who disagrees with you in even the slightest regard. But why would you want to communicate with any of them, they're all retards, just like me, right?

 

Beat your chest proudly!

Edited October 22, 2013 by MarkKelso'sHelmet

[simpleman]

I waited for someone to persuade me with facts and statistics that either Lewis or EJ deserved to be considered a potential Franchise OB. Or even a decent starting QB. After this thread has progressed, the only thing it has persuaded me is that it is time to start thinking about drafting a QB high next year, because according to the statistics and facts presented so far there does not appear a potential Franchise QB on our roster. I could never handle religion when they told me i just had to believe and have faith. It takes more than that to make me a believer, and nothing I have seen from or about EJ makes me a believer.

 

At the same point in Trent's and JP's careers both of them had shown me more than EJ has shown me, and we all know how well they turned out being our Franchise QB.

 

I'm beginning to think we let the two fight it out the rest of the season as equals and if no one rises above, we have to draft a QB high next year if one is available.

Edited October 22, 2013 by simpleman

[Jim in Anchorage]

I waited for someone to persuade me with facts and statistics that either Lewis or EJ deserved to be considered a potential Franchise OB. Or even a decent starting QB. After this thread has progressed, the only thing it has persuaded me that it is time to start thinking about drafting a QB high next year, because according to the statistics and facts presented so far there does not appear a potential Franchise QB on our roster. I

I'm beginning to think we let the two fight it out the rest of the season as equals and if no one rises above we have to draft a QB high next year if one is available.

Amen to that. Who can say what might be available in the 2014 draft? I am getting tired of this give him 3 years stuff.

[Dibs]

I waited for someone to persuade me with facts and statistics that either Lewis or EJ deserved to be considered a potential Franchise OB. Or even a decent starting QB. After this thread has progressed, the only thing it has persuaded me is that it is time to start thinking about drafting a QB high next year, because according to the statistics and facts presented so far there does not appear a potential Franchise QB on our roster. I could never handle religion when they told me i just had to believe and have faith. It takes more than that to make me a believer, and nothing I have seen from or about EJ makes me a believer.

 

At the same point in Trent's and JP's careers both of them had shown me more than EJ has shown me, and we all know how well they turned out being our Franchise QB.

 

I'm beginning to think we let the two fight it out the rest of the season as equals and if no one rises above, we have to draft a QB high next year if one is available.

 

I totally agree. If a rookie, particularly a QB, hasn't shown that they are going to be a good player within their first 5 starts, they should be benched and look to the next years draft to find their replacement.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Dibs

[thebandit27]

To me, Thad is consistent where EJ is not. Thad makes the easy plays where EJ does not. He is able to take something off the ball at the right time, to make it easy to catch. He is able to pinpoint the ball to make it easy to catch. I see the opposite a lot of times from EJ. Obviously we don't agree but that's what I see

 

 

That's just about the last thing I thought of watching him vs. Miami: catchable balls. He was erratic and inconsistent at best in that game.

 

I have to bow out of this topic; way too many people see things that just aren't happening out there with regard to both QBs.

[FLFan]

Amen to that. Who can say what might be available in the 2014 draft? I am getting tired of this give him 3 years stuff.

So, 4 games is enough? This is non-sensical.