Byrds INT count is padded...

[26CornerBlitz]

Does anyone think Brady and Belichick game plan for Byrd like they did for Reed?

 

Under Pettine, maybe they'd have to.

[3rdand12]

Under Pettine, maybe they'd have to.

one might like to think so #26 ?

 

While I appreciate your somewhat sophisticated breakdown of the stats - they are indeed closer to the "eye ball test," than simply looking at the numbers- I wasn't claiming to have a superior measuring stick. I just think that your measuring stick- or at least the subsequent conclusion- isn't very good. I don't mean any offense, and apologize for the snark upthread.

 

I look for stats that support the ol' "eye ball test." My eyes tell me Byrd is one of, if not the best, free safeties in the game. I also recognize that there are stats that refute my opinion, as well as those that support it.

 

So, take it as a cop-out if you will, but my measuring stick is based on a convergence of stats, experts' opinions, and my own eyes.

 

In this case, my "eyes" are telling me that you went to a lot of trouble to seek out information that supports a pre-conceived narrative.

 

 

 

Not only that, but it could certainly be the case that, although they throw their fair share of INTs, top-tier QBs avoid throwing toward top-tier defenders.

there is a statistic i read about Byrd in regard to QBs throwing away from him or staying away from his assigned area of the field. It seems QBs really took Byrd into consideration

ye ye i know. It was prolly PFF anyways : )

But i dont care for stats in general because they simplify matters. And it seems more folks than i suspected herabouts drink too much during the games, or possibly did not watch at all. i might be the former : (

I too try to blend the stats and the I- ball test . seems i am in the minority often. np.

 

OP good work and well presented theory for us here to chew upon imho.

thanks

 

An excellent point. Obviously, someone is getting those 114 INTs. I personally consider Matt Schaub an elite QB; but other than him Byrd hasn't intercepted anyone I'd consider good.

 

There have been times--especially in 2009--when Byrd was the beneficiary of an exceptional number of bad QBs/bad throws. He's feasted off the likes of Sanchez and other scrub QBs. If you look just at the raw number of INTs he's had, that probably overstates what you can expect going forward--especially when playing against a decent QB.

 

There's a lot more to Byrd's game than just the interceptions. That "more" is a big reason I'm hoping he's re-signed. But his INT total is, as you say, inflated.

you are correct , but the other side of the coin is if we had real linebackers (we might now or soon ) a defensive line that created pressures more often than not and coach worth is salt ( we might have those too ! ) this "stat" could run the other way couldn't it ? Edited July 16, 2013 by 3rdand12

[K-9]

Does anyone think Brady and Belichick game plan for Byrd like they did for Reed?

 

31's the mike?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[dave mcbride]

one might like to think so #26 ?

 

there is a statistic i read about Byrd in regard to QBs throwing away from him or staying away from his assigned area of the field. It seems QBs really took Byrd into consideration

ye ye i know. It was prolly PFF anyways : )

But i dont care for stats in general because they simplify matters. And it seems more folks than i suspected herabouts drink too much during the games, or possibly did not watch at all. i might be the former : (

I too try to blend the stats and the I- ball test . seems i am in the minority often. np.

 

 

You know what simplifies matters the most? Ignoring advanced stats altogether. It makes for bad analysis.

[Orton's Arm]

I understand this and don't disagree entirely with the premise or numbers however the texans elite running game and the fact that defenses have to stack the box against Arian foster helps to pad schaubs stats including his ypa.

 

You cite Brady and manning so I will ask have either of them ever played with a rb as good as foster? I would also stack Andre Johnson as good or better than any wr to play with both of those qbs.

 

Ypa is a stay and just like every other stay there are many variables that contribute to the final number. I don't place Schaub as elite but I don't think he's a bum either. He's a good starter on a very good team IMO.

 

You've made a number of good points in your post. On the other hand, I'll point out that Manning and Brady have had some very good receivers too. For a while Brady had Randy Moss. More recently he had Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Wes Welker. You could say that any one of those guys is not as good as Andre Johnson, and you'd be right. But all three of those guys are good to very good; and their collective impact is greater than Andre Johnson's.

 

As for Peyton Manning: for most of his career he had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark. While Marvin Harrison wasn't as good as Andre Johnson, he was still a very good #1 WR. With a guy as good as Reggie Wayne lining up as the #2 WR, Peyton Manning had no reason to complain about his receiving options.

 

As for RBs taking pressure off of the passing game: for most of Manning's time with the Colts, Edgerrin James was present. James gave Manning a weapon with which to take pressure off the passing game. Arian Foster's career average yards per carry is 4.5--a good solid number. A better number than James'; and equal to Fred Jackson's career average.

 

When all offensive positions--not just #1 WR and RB--are taken into account, I think that Schaub's offensive supporting cast wasn't all that much different than Brady's or Manning's. Even if Schaub's cast was slightly better than the other two QBs', his yards per attempt was slightly better than theirs as well. It's much easier to make the case that Schaub should be considered a top-5 QB than it is to argue the opposite.

[dave mcbride]

Byrds INT stats tell an interesting story. Especially how different his '09 season was vs '10-'12.

 

My argument is that '09 is an anomaly and his 3-5 INTs per season are a truer gauge. Also interesting, Byrd doesn't have interceptions vs "elite" QBs or even "Top 10" qbs (unless you're considering M. Schaub) Here are all of the QBs Byrd has intercepted in his career, sometimes multiple times. It's a who's-who of back-ups.

 

Delhomme

D.Anderson

Sanchez

V. Young

Cassel

Tannehill

Tebow

Beck

Skelton

Kolb

Henne

Schaub

 

 

Some more random INT stats. Note the difference between '09 vs '10/'11/'12

 

2009:

 

Interceptions (he had 9)

8 of his INTs were in a 5 game span; 6 in a 3 game span.

4 INTs when score was +/-8 for Bills.

5 first half INTs.

5 INTs when the game was tied

Tied for 1st in 2009 in INTs with 4 other players.

 

2010-2012: Late-game interceptions, most of the time caused by poor throws. Usually leading when INT happens. Vs poor/average QBs.

 

2012:

Interceptions (he had 5)

-Never had an interception when we were behind (4 when winning; 1 when tied)

-All of his interceptions were 1st/2nd/3rd and 6+ yds

-Four interceptions in the 4th Q and one in OT. None in 1st/2nd/3rd Q.

-2 on ARI (5-11) [biggest game, one setting up GW FG];

1 on MIA (7-9)[Tannehill overthrow, iced game];

1 on KC (2-14) [garbage time INT in final minute];

1 on JAC (2-14) [garbage time INT in final minute]

-Tied for 7th in 2012 for INTs with 4 other players, including London Fletcher.

 

2011

Interceptions (he had 3)

-1 on DEN (Tebow poor throw)

-1 on WAS (Beck overthrows)

-1 on NYJ (Sanchez overthrows)

-Never had an interception when we were behind

-Tied for 37th in 2011 for INTs.

 

2010:

Interceptions (he had 1 for a TD)

-1 on NYJ

-Tied for 125th

 

Antoine Winfield had 6 INTs in five seasons with the Bills. What's your point? Every good player who actually accumulates stats - and not all of them do -- pads his stats against bad teams. Ever checked out Bruce Smith's sack stats against the Colts in the 1990s?

 

http://www.pro-footb.../W/WinfAn20.htm

Edited July 17, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Mr. WEO]

K-9 is right: I'm about to cite Schaub's YPA stat. But before I do, I'll give you a little background. A regression analysis performed by The New York Times found that six variables explained 80% of the observed variation in teams' winning percentages. These six variables were yards per pass attempt, interception percentage, yards per running attempt; and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of the three offensive variables, yards per pass attempt is three times as important as INT percentage or yards per rushing attempt.

 

So let's look at a few numbers, shall we? Just to make K-9 happy.

 

Yards per pass attempt (career)

• Tom Brady: 7.5
  
• Peyton Manning: 7.6
  
• Matt Schaub: 7.8
  

INT percentage (career)

• Tom Brady: 2.1%
  
• Peyton Manning: 2.7%
  
• Matt Schaub: 2.5%
  

If a no name defensive end starts getting 17 sacks a season, wouldn't it be time for us to start describing him as elite? By the same token, if a guy like Schaub puts up numbers at least as good as the best QBs in the game, doesn't he deserve to be put in that same elite category?

 

Nope.

 

That regression analysis doesn't seem to be able to explain Schaub's decidedly un-leite win/loss record of 44-36 compared to Manning's 154-70 and Brady's 136-39.

 

Botom line, he doesn't throw TDs and he doesn't win enough games (or even play in enough) to be considered elite.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Mr. WEO

[dave mcbride]

You've made a number of good points in your post. On the other hand, I'll point out that Manning and Brady have had some very good receivers too. For a while Brady had Randy Moss. More recently he had Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Wes Welker. You could say that any one of those guys is not as good as Andre Johnson, and you'd be right. But all three of those guys are good to very good; and their collective impact is greater than Andre Johnson's.

 

As for Peyton Manning: for most of his career he had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark. While Marvin Harrison wasn't as good as Andre Johnson, he was still a very good #1 WR. With a guy as good as Reggie Wayne lining up as the #2 WR, Peyton Manning had no reason to complain about his receiving options.

 

As for RBs taking pressure off of the passing game: for most of Manning's time with the Colts, Edgerrin James was present. James gave Manning a weapon with which to take pressure off the passing game. Arian Foster's career average yards per carry is 4.5--a good solid number. A better number than James'; and equal to Fred Jackson's career average.

 

When all offensive positions--not just #1 WR and RB--are taken into account, I think that Schaub's offensive supporting cast wasn't all that much different than Brady's or Manning's. Even if Schaub's cast was slightly better than the other two QBs', his yards per attempt was slightly better than theirs as well. It's much easier to make the case that Schaub should be considered a top-5 QB than it is to argue the opposite.

 

Do you really think that Andre Johnson is better than Marvin Harrison was in his prime? I mean, the point is arguable, but Harrison is one of the better receivers in league history if you judge him by his five-year peak.

[Orton's Arm]

Nope.

 

That regression analysis doesn't seem to be able to explain Schaub's decidedly un-leite win/loss record of 44-36 compared to Manning's 154-70 and Brady's 136-39.

 

Botom line, he doesn't throw TDs and he doesn't win enough games (or even play in enough) to be considered elite.

 

> That regression analysis doesn't seem to be able to explain Schaub's decidedly un-leite win/loss

> record of 44-36 compared to Manning's 154-70 and Brady's 136-39.

 

Maybe that's because wins and losses are accumulated by teams, not by specific players.

[dave mcbride]

Nope.

 

That regression analysis doesn't seem to be able to explain Schaub's decidedly un-leite win/loss record of 44-36 compared to Manning's 154-70 and Brady's 136-39.

 

Botom line, he doesn't throw TDs and he doesn't win enough games (or even play in enough) to be considered elite.

It's a team game.

[Orton's Arm]

Do you really think that Andre Johnson is better than Marvin Harrison was in his prime? I mean, the point is arguable, but Harrison is one of the better receivers in league history if you judge him by his five-year peak.

 

I personally feel that Andre Johnson would have a slight edge over Marvin Harrison in his prime. On the other hand, it's quite possible that if I refreshed my memory by re-watching some tape of Harrison in his prime, that I'd change my opinion.

[dave mcbride]

I personally feel that Andre Johnson would have a slight edge over Marvin Harrison in his prime. On the other hand, it's quite possible that if I refreshed my memory by re-watching some tape of Harrison in his prime, that I'd change my opinion.

It's an interesting argument. Harrison was clearly faster (disregard the average per catch, which is almost identical) and smoother out of his cuts, but Johnson is bigger/tougher. Both are/were great players.

[Mr. WEO]

> That regression analysis doesn't seem to be able to explain Schaub's decidedly un-leite win/loss

> record of 44-36 compared to Manning's 154-70 and Brady's 136-39.

 

Maybe that's because wins and losses are accumulated by teams, not by specific players.

It's a team game.

 

It certainly is a team game. But EA seemed to making the argument that Schaub should be considered elite because he had a similar individual stat to Manning and Brady which is reportedly the most important correlative to winning percent. Yet it doesn't seem to correlate in Schaub's case. That's why I didn't agree. He's a good Qb with a very modest win-loss record and offensive production. Picking one number doesn't make him elite when most of the other numbers don't support the claim.

 

I will agree that Manning was more consistently surrounded by great talent on offense. His playoff record is awful, given that.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Mr. WEO

[dave mcbride]

It certainly is a team game. But EA seemed to making the argument that Schaub should be considered elite because he had a similar individual stat to Manning and Brady which is reportedly the most important correlative to winning percent. Yet it doesn't seem to correlate in Schaub's case. That's why I didn't agree. He's a good Qb with a very modest win-loss record and offensive production. Picking one number doesn't make him elite when most of the other numbers don't support the claim.

 

Well, I agree in the sense that while he's a good player, he's leagues behind Manning and Brady. They're not comparable.

[marauderswr80]

I can careless if he stays or goes to be honest. If he stays, great. If not...so be it...

 

I don't think he makes or breaks this team!

[dave mcbride]

I can careless if he stays or goes to be honest. If he stays, great. If not...so be it...

 

I don't think he makes or breaks this team!

It's better to have food starters on your team than less than good starters. He's a good starter. The guys slated to replace him are less than good starters.

[Orton's Arm]

It certainly is a team game. But EA seemed to making the argument that Schaub should be considered elite because he had a similar individual stat to Manning and Brady which is reportedly the most important correlative to winning percent. Yet it doesn't seem to correlate in Schaub's case. That's why I didn't agree. He's a good Qb with a very modest win-loss record and offensive production. Picking one number doesn't make him elite when most of the other numbers don't support the claim.

 

I will agree that Manning was more consistently surrounded by great talent on offense. His playoff record is awful, given that.

 

> But EA seemed to making the argument that Schaub should be considered elite because he

> had a similar individual stat to Manning and Brady which is reportedly the most important

> correlative to winning percent.

 

There are a number of QB stats one could look at. Completion percentage. QB rating. Yards per attempt. Touchdowns. Etc. There will always be an argument about which of those stats to ignore, which to pay attention to, and how much to weight them. I tend to stress YPA and INT percentage: both because those are the ones correlated with winning, and because they are among the most difficult to distort. (Conversely, a QB who wants to inflate his completion percentage or QB rating should dump the ball off a lot. Which is precisely what Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and others have done to inflate their completion percentages and QB ratings.)

 

> Yet it doesn't seem to correlate in Schaub's case.

 

The fact that Schaub's YPA and INT percentage are comparable to Manning's and Brady's strongly suggests his individual contribution to winning games is comparable to Manning's or Brady's. But the Texans have typically not had a complete football team--certainly not nearly as complete as the Patriots or Colts teams which had gone deep into the playoffs.

 

> Picking one number doesn't make him elite when most of the other numbers don't support the claim.

 

I'm not sure which other numbers you have in mind, but many numbers one might cite are meaningless. For example, John Elway and Kelly Holcomb have about the same career completion percentage and QB rating. This is because Holcomb inflated his completion percentage with a lot of short passes; whereas Elway did the opposite. However, Elway has a commanding advantage over Holcomb in yards per attempt--correctly indicating that Elway was by far the better quarterback.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Byrds INT stats tell an interesting story. Especially how different his '09 season was vs '10-'12.

 

My argument is that '09 is an anomaly and his 3-5 INTs per season are a truer gauge. Also interesting, Byrd doesn't have interceptions vs "elite" QBs or even "Top 10" qbs (unless you're considering M. Schaub) Here are all of the QBs Byrd has intercepted in his career, sometimes multiple times. It's a who's-who of back-ups.

 

Delhomme

D.Anderson

Sanchez

V. Young

Cassel

Tannehill

Tebow

Beck

Skelton

Kolb

Henne

Schaub

 

 

Some more random INT stats. Note the difference between '09 vs '10/'11/'12

 

2009:

 

Interceptions (he had 9)

8 of his INTs were in a 5 game span; 6 in a 3 game span.

4 INTs when score was +/-8 for Bills.

5 first half INTs.

5 INTs when the game was tied

Tied for 1st in 2009 in INTs with 4 other players.

 

2010-2012: Late-game interceptions, most of the time caused by poor throws. Usually leading when INT happens. Vs poor/average QBs.

 

2012:

Interceptions (he had 5)

-Never had an interception when we were behind (4 when winning; 1 when tied)

-All of his interceptions were 1st/2nd/3rd and 6+ yds

-Four interceptions in the 4th Q and one in OT. None in 1st/2nd/3rd Q.

-2 on ARI (5-11) [biggest game, one setting up GW FG];

1 on MIA (7-9)[Tannehill overthrow, iced game];

1 on KC (2-14) [garbage time INT in final minute];

1 on JAC (2-14) [garbage time INT in final minute]

-Tied for 7th in 2012 for INTs with 4 other players, including London Fletcher.

 

2011

Interceptions (he had 3)

-1 on DEN (Tebow poor throw)

-1 on WAS (Beck overthrows)

-1 on NYJ (Sanchez overthrows)

-Never had an interception when we were behind

-Tied for 37th in 2011 for INTs.

 

2010:

Interceptions (he had 1 for a TD)

-1 on NYJ

-Tied for 125th

 

Nice work! You nailed it 100% and CLEARLY proved, CLEARLY that beyond the shadow of a doubt.....

 

 

..... the Internet can be used to "prove" anything.....

 

 

In all seriousness I am sure Byrd and his agent hold the position that Bryd is even better than the raw stats indicate while Whaley is is the opposing camp..... Me I don't believe safety is where you blow the wad.. Pareto separation from good to great is just not huge at that position.

 

 

[ganesh]

Wow that was a lot of work to prove... what, exactly?

 

Guess what? Elite QBs don't throw a lot of interceptions in the first place, so of course you'd expect Byrd (and anyone else) to have little to no interceptions thrown by top tier QBs.

 

 

Also with the Bills sucking big time with 4th place finishes consistently, they get to play a lot of 4th place finish teams, who obviously would have stinking QBs too. The only elite QB they play every year is Tom Brady and interestingly, the Patriots kill the bIlls by RUNNING the football. Besides Brady, usually you will see 2-3 other elite/good QBs coming from the other division or conference.

[first_and_ten]

Why can't Byrd just be happy with top 4 money? I just don't get why these players let agents brainwash them, It's very disheartening as a Bills fan. Wait till next year when Wood wants to be paid like the top center in the league. It gets old. It makes me like football less and less.