The Poojer Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 point spreads are not indicative of wins and losses...they are set to encourage bettors to be split down the middle...50% will bet that the patriots will win by 7 and 50% will bet that they do not win by 7, which could either mean the bills lose by 6 or win by 46...vegas wants the vig... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Other than the Carolina game, which I think should be slightly in the Bills favor, those lines all look about right to me. The Bills shouldn't be favored on the road against anyone this side of Jax and they should not be favored at home against playoff teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 point spreads are not indicative of wins and losses...they are set to encourage bettors to be split down the middle...50% will bet that the patriots will win by 7 and 50% will bet that they do not win by 7, which could either mean the bills lose by 6 or win by 46...vegas wants the vig... You are mostly correct, but do you really believe a lline of 7 would encourage only 50% of bettors to back the Patriots? I believe 90% of bettors would bet New England at 7 (which isn't the same as saying 90% of the money will be on New England). So it's slightly more complicated than what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 (edited) vegas is not stupid, game 1 can go either way, they absolutely want to encourage an equal split...no way do they have delusions that they can win 90% of a games bets. I'm not following the statement bolded below, if 90% take NE at -7, how does that not mean that money won't be on NE? to me it indicates only 10% will be put on buffalo at +7...unless of course you are throwing teasers and parlays into the mix You are mostly correct, but do you really believe a lline of 7 would encourage only 50% of bettors to back the Patriots? I believe 90% of bettors would bet New England at 7 (which isn't the same as saying 90% of the money will be on New England). So it's slightly more complicated than what you're saying. Edited May 8, 2013 by The Poojer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsox Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 (edited) Hate to say it, but 3-13 sounds 'bout right given the givens. Agreed. Not enough All Pros or Pro Bowlers in key positions. I was thinking anywhere from 2-5 wins Edited May 8, 2013 by mattsox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleaMoulds80 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I predict 6-8 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 vegas is not stupid, game 1 can go either way, they absolutely want to encourage an equal split...no way do they have delusions that they can win 90% of a games bets. I'm not following the statement bolded below, if 90% take NE at -7, how does that not mean that money won't be on NE? to me it indicates only 10% will be put on buffalo at +7...unless of course you are throwing teasers and parlays into the mix Because not all bets are equal. If 9 Pats fans each plunk down $10 on the Pats -7, but I put down $100 on the Bills +7, 90% of the bets are on the Pats, but 53% of the money is on the Bills. For what it's worth, from what I've heard, Vegas is willing to take a stand some of the time -- i.e., bet against the majority of the betting public because they think they're smarter than the betting public. And they're almost always right! In any case, very few individual games are very close to 50% money wagered on each side. I don't know if Walter's sources are reliable, but he always posts the % money bet on one side in his weekly picks. If his numbers are accurate, almost every game has at least 60% bet on one side, and several games a week are over 80% on one side. Vegas makes their money via the big picture -- they can afford to take a loss on a given game or a given Super Bowl winner (1999 Rams, e.g.), they just need to offset those losses with wins. Since every bet carries a vig of some sort, they make money in the long run as long as the public doesn't win all the time. And since Vegas is almost always smarter than the public, they win a lot more than they lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Hate to say it, but 3-13 sounds 'bout right given the givens. Would you like to place a wager on the Bills record? Why don't we put the over/under at 4.5 wins and you can have the under. I'll take the over. A small wager, maybe $100? Agreed. Not enough All Pros or Pro Bowlers in key positions. I was thinking anywhere from 2-5 wins I'll make the same offer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Thanks for that! I see the point now Because not all bets are equal. If 9 Pats fans each plunk down $10 on the Pats -7, but I put down $100 on the Bills +7, 90% of the bets are on the Pats, but 53% of the money is on the Bills. For what it's worth, from what I've heard, Vegas is willing to take a stand some of the time -- i.e., bet against the majority of the betting public because they think they're smarter than the betting public. And they're almost always right! In any case, very few individual games are very close to 50% money wagered on each side. I don't know if Walter's sources are reliable, but he always posts the % money bet on one side in his weekly picks. If his numbers are accurate, almost every game has at least 60% bet on one side, and several games a week are over 80% on one side. Vegas makes their money via the big picture -- they can afford to take a loss on a given game or a given Super Bowl winner (1999 Rams, e.g.), they just need to offset those losses with wins. Since every bet carries a vig of some sort, they make money in the long run as long as the public doesn't win all the time. And since Vegas is almost always smarter than the public, they win a lot more than they lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarRifleman Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Well lets hope the odd makers out there are wrong & the Bills win many more than just 3 games this year. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bufffan031 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 (edited) I still don't know if 3-13 would be bad enough for Jadaveon Clowney next year. We may have to try for 2-14 at best.That Jags game is gonna be huge for the first pick in the draft next year Edited May 8, 2013 by bufffan031 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 How do people figure we'll be worse than last year? Based on 6 wins last year and an improvement in coaching on defense I'll say about 8-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SF Bills Fan Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I'd say this is accurate given we are in year 1 of a rebuild with unknowns at QB, coach and lots of fresh faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 19 and 0 baby!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 (edited) 6-10...easy schedule depends on coaching,EJ,and kiko Edited May 8, 2013 by Tcali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billnutinphoenix Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 we should still draft Manziel if possible. You probably were a fan of Tebow too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe W Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 I still don't know if 3-13 would be bad enough for Jadaveon Clowney next year. We may have to try for 2-14 at best.That Jags game is gonna be huge for the first pick in the draft next year Yes that game will be huge It will be dubbed the "Toilet Bowl" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Probably another 4-6 win season. If Kolb has a great year they could get 7. You are probably joking, but i will bite... IF Kolb has a 'great' year this team will win more then 7 games. Think about it, a 'great' year for Kolb would be 4000 yds(250 yds a game avg) 30 T.D. and 12 Int. They won 6 last year with arguably the worst coaching in football on D, and a back up QB. The D will be better with a competent Cord coaching and calling the game. Who really knows but if you have great QB play you will win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 just off the cuff...carolina, miami at jets at cleveland cincy kc jets jags miami -are all up for grabs pickem games 6-3 5-4 7-2 tampa atlanta baltimore are not automatic losses 2-1 or 1-2 new england pitt new england at saints - pretty tough wins although 1 of 4 wouldnt be shocking I dont see 3-13 unless the defense is worse than last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted May 9, 2013 Author Share Posted May 9, 2013 How do people figure we'll be worse than last year? Based on 6 wins last year and an improvement in coaching on defense I'll say about 8-8. Unproven HC, perhaps a rookie QB starting. Even with Kolb or Jackson just off the cuff...carolina, miami at jets at cleveland cincy kc jets jags miami -are all up for grabs pickem games 6-3 5-4 7-2 tampa atlanta baltimore are not automatic losses 2-1 or 1-2 new england pitt new england at saints - pretty tough wins although 1 of 4 wouldnt be shocking I dont see 3-13 unless the defense is worse than last year I posted this in another thread, but it has relevance in this one too. Wanna talk emotional mess...that's what most Bills fans just might be in week 8 or so... remember the 2010 seasons first 8 games? The odds of a college coach coming into the NFL and building a winning team his first stint are pretty slim, even tho he has a lot of endorsements from other NFL coaches. Even then his Syracuse team only went 8-5, and cuse came in 4th place in the Big East behind Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers. Then you have a QB that was graded as a 3rd or 4th rounder before the Senior Bowl, and although EJ was the MVP of that game, the rest of this years draft class is so bad it made an average QB look brilliant. EJ, 7 of 10 for 76 yards a TD, and an INT...that's it? EJ Manuel was viewed as a project by most draft sites. So, now you know why most of the scouts, analysts were shocked at the EJ pick in the first round. However, Bills fans are saying they love the pick because this franchise finally committed to drafting a QB in the first round. Like most Bills fans I'm pulling for Marrone and EJ to win some games this season. Hey, nobody thought the Bills could get worse then Jaurons teams, especially with an experienced HC that won in the NFL with the Cowboys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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