1 Year Deals

[Malazan]

NFLPA tells agents to report any hint of collusion

 

http://profootballta...t-of-collusion/

 

I'm surprised he didn't start before Free Agency even began. Must be nice to make an agreement then just be a sh*tbag and look to litigate every other day.

[Virgil]

NFLPA tells agents to report any hint of collusion

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/03/nflpa-tells-agents-to-report-any-hint-of-collusion/

 

 

Ha

[Dragonborn10]

I posted several weeks ago that this whole off-season smells like collusion. I think it is retribution for the owners not getting all they wanted with the new CBA.

[Virgil]

I posted several weeks ago that this whole off-season smells like collusion. I think it is retribution for the owners not getting all they wanted with the new CBA.

 

Shhhh. Don't tell WEO

[Dibs]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any complaints from the NFLPA yet around the way Free Agency has worked out so far. For starters, let me clarify that I don't know what's going on and I have no real opinion of why it's happening.

 

However, I can't remember a Free Agency where so many players took 1 or 2 year deals. We are seeing players who were getting 5-6 mil a year just a few years back take 1 year vet minimum deals. I know that some teams are in salary cap trouble, but that doesn't come close to explaining it.

 

Yes, there are some players who've cashed in. But I look at who is left out there and is there any reason to believe that these guys won't get the same 1 year deals?

 

The only thing I can think of is that the players can't get the massive contracts they are looking for so they are willing to try and take a 1 year "try-out" and get it next year. But at the same time, I'm surprised that the NFLPA hasn't said anything to implement that all the NFL is colluding together with deals being offered. Again, I'm not saying that's the case, but I've seen them complain over less.

 

Overall, I think it's great for teams like the Bills who have a lot of holes to fill and will continue to be able to pick up impact players for cheap then make the call next year if they are worth extending.

 

But again, just haven't seen this in a while

 

Actually, it looks like it fully explains it.

 

Player contracts are typically structured with a progressive annual increase to the players base salary. This is due to assumed increases in the cap.....increases which have not occurred in the past 4 years.

 

Furthermore, star players.....the players that teams are desperate to acquire.....have been seeing an increase in pay each year in FA which has been vastly disproportionate to the cap increases over the last 4 years. (Mario as example)

 

With the 2014 cap being projected to be only a 1-2%(1m-2m) rise over the 2013 cap, the numbers are finally catching up with most(all) teams and they simply cannot afford to lock in expensive multi-year contracts.

 

Here are the cap levels(and percentage increases from previous year) for the last 10 years.

 

2004: 80.6m (7.4%)

2005: 85.5m (6.1%)

2006: 102m (19.3%)

2007: 109m (6.9%)

2008: 116m (6.4%)

2009: 129m (11.2%)

2010: Uncapped

2011: 120m (-7.0%) - for the 2 years

2012: 120.6m (0.5%)

2013: 123m (2%)

 

As you can see, the cap has decreased from the 2009 cap number(4 years ago). With player contracts increasing each year(particularly star players).....teams are having to cut good players just to balance the cap books.....and with the standard annual increases placed inside contracts(meaning cap hits for players on the roster will likely rise in 2014 well above the predicted cap rise), teams simply cannot afford to be signing players to long term contracts at the moment.

 

Basically, according to the cap numbers, player salaries should be of a similar level to 6% higher than the 2008 player salaries.

 

 

First, the cap will go up every year that all league revenues go up. Therefore it is going up for the 2013 season. Pretty straight forward.

.......

 

See the figures above. It actually went down in 2011......and the amounts it has been going up(and projected to go up next season) are much less than in previous times.

 

From what I have read, the old 6-7% increases will start again in 2015.

Edited April 4, 2013 by Dibs

[billsfan89]

The salary cap stayed flat and the few teams that had money spent it early on the elite free agents. The rest of the teams that had little or moderate money to spend held off and now supply has exceeded demand. Next year the cap is slated to go up, so a lot of players are taking one year deals in order to hit the market next year when they feel there will be bigger deals available.

 

Simply put its a buyers market.

[Dibs]

.......Next year the cap is slated to go up, so a lot of players are taking one year deals in order to hit the market next year when they feel there will be bigger deals available.

 

Looks like the cap won't have a significant increase till 2015.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2012/06/18/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-cap.aspx

[Virgil]

Dibs, good research. I'm never going to look into a post that much, but glad you did :-)

 

I wonder how much of the cash to cap strategy is also being used by other teams now. I say it because, if you remember, I few years back there were teams almost at the cap and still signing out huge contracts. Yes, it bit them in the ass down the road. So I wonder if we are starting to finally see teams learn their lesson

[papazoid]

Predictably, the NFL contends that no collusion has occurred. Player signings in 2013 have been characterized by robust spending and intense competition, NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told NFL Networks Albert Breer. Anyone seeing collusion in this market is seeing ghosts.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/03/league-union-disagree-on-collusion/

Edited April 4, 2013 by papazoid

[Meathead]

i really dont see how collusion would work that easy in the nfl. youd have to have the overwhelming majority on board or else other gms would just snatch up all the players they could with slightly better offers than those the colluders colluded to collude. and if you had that many gms participating it would pose serious risk of their exposure and subsequent sanctions. so frankly i seriously doubt thats happening

 

i wonder how much of an impact these huge qb deals are having? the nfl has made the game so single focused on that one position that teams have to do whatever they can to try to get and then keep a top third qb. it almost doesnt matter anymore how bad the rest of your team is, if you have a top qb then youre a contender. so yeah, throw every dollar you can at those guys and then fill the rest of your roster with whatever junk you can patch together

[papazoid]

the mid level veterans are getting squeezed out....

 

the high priced superstars and low priced rookies/young players are in greater demand.

[Chandler#81]

1year deals have been a staple in MLB and the NHL for years now. It's the way to fill in pieces, year to year. Works for every team except those with the letters B-U-F-F-A-L-O in them.

[papazoid]

1year deals have been a staple in MLB and the NHL for years now. It's the way to fill in pieces, year to year. Works for every team except those with the letters B-U-F-F-A-L-O in them.

 

one big difference between the NFL and MLB/NHL. the MLB & NHL contracts are 100% guaranteed. NFL guarantees vary wildly from zero to about half.

[Malazan]

Predictably, the NFL contends that no collusion has occurred. Player signings in 2013 have been characterized by robust spending and intense competition, NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told NFL Networks Albert Breer. Anyone seeing collusion in this market is seeing ghosts.

 

http://profootballta...e-on-collusion/

 

Well, it's true. Collusion is a Smith Pipe dream to try to cover up for his mistakes.

[Magox]

I guess in not sure what your getting at.... Aren't flacco and romo the only two missing?

 

All I was saying was annual average vs salary cap might be slightly different but generally it's stayed pretty close. Do an average on a lot of those instead of a single year excluding bonus money I think you see pretty similar numbers across time.

 

15 years ago the cap was 40m is something most have a hard time wrapping their heads around. Heck it was in the 80s like 6 years ago

 

I understand what you are saying, you are bringing up a few examples of players receiving comparable contracts relative to today's players. This is a little different for two reasons, one this appears now to be a trend, whereas before they were more of an outlier. The reason why I posted the link is to show you aside from Peyton's contract, the highest base pay salary was $13.5M . Flacco's base pay for 2016 will reach a staggering $28.5M, and I assume by the time Aaron Rodger's contract is finished we will see probably something north of that amount.

 

According to DIB, we probably won't see a meaningful increase in the cap until at least 2015. Which means that Flacco's and I assume Rodger's contract will account for over 21% of their team's cap (assuming the cap will be $135M)

 

If you average out the top 5 QB's from last years base pay salary, even including Peyton's 20M salary (Which I consider to be part of the new trend of these higher QB contracts), they only made up south of 11% of the team's cap.

 

So think about that for a second, Flacco, who most likely won't be the highest paid QB salary by the time we get to 2016, will make up 21% of the team's cap, whereas in 2013, the top 5 QB's made up south of 11%.

 

That's a huge difference.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I understand what you are saying, you are bringing up a few examples of players receiving comparable contracts relative to today's players. This is a little different for two reasons, one this appears now to be a trend, whereas before they were more of an outlier. The reason why I posted the link is to show you aside from Peyton's contract, the highest base pay salary was $13.5M . Flacco's base pay for 2016 will reach a staggering $28.5M, and I assume by the time Aaron Rodger's contract is finished we will see probably something north of that amount.

 

According to DIB, we probably won't see a meaningful increase in the cap until at least 2015. Which means that Flacco's and I assume Rodger's contract will account for over 21% of their team's cap (assuming the cap will be $135M)

 

If you average out the top 5 QB's from last years base pay salary, even including Peyton's 20M salary (Which I consider to be part of the new trend of these higher QB contracts), they only made up south of 11% of the team's cap.

 

So think about that for a second, Flacco, who most likely won't be the highest paid QB salary by the time we get to 2016, will make up 21% of the team's cap, whereas in 2013, the top 5 QB's made up south of 11%.

 

That's a huge difference.

 

base pay salary excluding bonus money is silly though. thats why i was doing lifetime average vs cap at time of signing as the example. drew brees took home what, about 40m last year? but his base pay is far less.

 

flacco has a base salary of 1m in 2013, and 6 in 2014. even his cap hit next year is only 6.8m. if the cap is 100% flat (likely sees a small increase), flacco is only 5.5% the way that it is structured, despite a 20m average for the length accounting at 16% by the measure i was using

 

its just not comparing apples to apples unless you have something remotely standardized and with the way these contracts are structured that is hard to do. thats why i went with the yearly average vs cap at time of signing. that hasnt seemed to have radically changed, so im guessing that agents/teams use something remotely similar as a benchmark. with rookies getting less and more going to vets you might see a slight shift in there if you go more in depth, but... generally speaking i think its close enough that we cant say qb pay is changing the way rosters are composed noticeably.

Edited April 4, 2013 by NoSaint

[Magox]

base pay salary excluding bonus money is silly though. thats why i was doing lifetime average vs cap at time of signing as the example. drew brees took home what, about 40m last year? but his base pay is far less.

 

flacco has a base salary of 1m in 2013, and 6 in 2014. even his cap hit next year is only 6.8m. if the cap is 100% flat (likely sees a small increase), flacco is only 5.5% the way that it is structured, despite a 20m average for the length accounting at 16% by the measure i was using

 

its just not comparing apples to apples unless you have something remotely standardized and with the way these contracts are structured that is hard to do. thats why i went with the yearly average vs cap at time of signing. that hasnt seemed to have radically changed, so im guessing that agents/teams use something remotely similar as a benchmark. with rookies getting less and more going to vets you might see a slight shift in there if you go more in depth, but... generally speaking i think its close enough that we cant say qb pay is changing the way rosters are composed noticeably.

 

We are doing apples to apples. It's too complicated to compare it with the bonuses, all these contracts are structured differently. But even if you want to look at the average contract as you suggested, take a look at the top 5 QB contracts in 2013 and what the top 5 QB contracts will be in 2014, over the life of their contracts as you suggested. And yes, you will see it is a radical change. The cap will negligibly rise over the next few years, yet QB salaries will increase by over 40% for Franchise QB's.

Edited April 4, 2013 by Magox

[Dibs]

We are doing apples to apples. It's too complicated to compare it with the bonuses, all these contracts are structured differently. But even if you want to look at the average contract as you suggested, take a look at the top 5 QB contracts in 2013 and what the top 5 QB contracts will be in 2014, over the life of their contracts as you suggested. And yes, you will see it is a radical change. The cap will negligibly rise over the next few years, yet QB salaries will increase by over 40% for Franchise QB's.

 

This page shows the actual cap hits for QBs......and can be filtered by year.

http://www.spotrac.c...it/quarterback/

 

It looks like the Ravens structured Flacco very wisely with his cap hits remaining relatively low(under 15m) till 2016.

 

Romo on the other hand looks like his new contract could destroy the cowboys next year(2014).

 

The averages cap hits for the top 5 QBs are as follows.....

2013: 19.2m

2014: 20.0m

2015: 21.6m

2016: 21.8m

 

Ryan & Cutler become FAs after 2013.

Rodgers, Stafford, Dalton, Kaepernick, Newton & Smith after 2014.

(Obviously some of these contracts will increase the figures).

 

 

It looks to me as though the top end QB contracts have been held roughly static for the next few year(as one would expect considering the static cap situation).

(Apart from Romo.....that contract seems to ignore the existence of the salary cap lol).

 

 

On a side note, am I the only one who wonders how the Packers are still paying Rodgers only 10.5m/season?

Edited April 5, 2013 by Dibs

[NoSaint]

 

 

This page shows the actual cap hits for QBs......and can be filtered by year.

http://www.spotrac.c...it/quarterback/

 

It looks like the Ravens structured Flacco very wisely with his cap hits remaining relatively low(under 15m) till 2016.

 

Romo on the other hand looks like his new contract could destroy the cowboys next year(2014).

 

The averages cap hits for the top 5 QBs are as follows.....

2013: 19.2m

2014: 20.0m

2015: 21.6m

2016: 21.8m

 

Ryan & Cutler become FAs after 2013.

Rodgers, Stafford, Dalton, Kaepernick, Newton & Smith after 2014.

(Obviously some of these contracts will increase the figures).

 

 

It looks to me as though the top end QB contracts have been held roughly static for the next few year(as one would expect considering the static cap situation).

(Apart from Romo.....that contract seems to ignore the existence of the salary cap lol).

 

 

On a side note, am I the only one who wonders how the Packers are still paying Rodgers only 10.5m/season?

 

Rodgers only has so much leverage having signed so early in his career arc. Look for him to tag on enough money to the end of that deal to average 20m from here on out. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 years at about 100m in new money tagged on to get him to the 6 year 120 range for the next stretch

[Mr. WEO]

I posted several weeks ago that this whole off-season smells like collusion. I think it is retribution for the owners not getting all they wanted with the new CBA.

 

The owners completely destroyed the NFLPA in the CBA.

 

Shhhh. Don't tell WEO

 

See above. Anyone suggesting the owners are colluding on these handful of one year contracts doesn't understand what collusion means.

 

Actually, it looks like it fully explains it.

 

Player contracts are typically structured with a progressive annual increase to the players base salary. This is due to assumed increases in the cap.....increases which have not occurred in the past 4 years.

 

Furthermore, star players.....the players that teams are desperate to acquire.....have been seeing an increase in pay each year in FA which has been vastly disproportionate to the cap increases over the last 4 years. (Mario as example)

 

With the 2014 cap being projected to be only a 1-2%(1m-2m) rise over the 2013 cap, the numbers are finally catching up with most(all) teams and they simply cannot afford to lock in expensive multi-year contracts.

 

Here are the cap levels(and percentage increases from previous year) for the last 10 years.

 

2004: 80.6m (7.4%)

2005: 85.5m (6.1%)

2006: 102m (19.3%)

2007: 109m (6.9%)

2008: 116m (6.4%)

2009: 129m (11.2%)

2010: Uncapped

2011: 120m (-7.0%) - for the 2 years

2012: 120.6m (0.5%)

2013: 123m (2%)

 

As you can see, the cap has decreased from the 2009 cap number(4 years ago). With player contracts increasing each year(particularly star players).....teams are having to cut good players just to balance the cap books.....and with the standard annual increases placed inside contracts(meaning cap hits for players on the roster will likely rise in 2014 well above the predicted cap rise), teams simply cannot afford to be signing players to long term contracts at the moment.

 

Basically, according to the cap numbers, player salaries should be of a similar level to 6% higher than the 2008 player salaries.

 

 

 

 

See the figures above. It actually went down in 2011......and the amounts it has been going up(and projected to go up next season) are much less than in previous times.

 

From what I have read, the old 6-7% increases will start again in 2015.

 

The cap went down in 2011 because the new CBA decreased the percentage of all revenues given to players for salaries. If it remained at the old CBA percentage, there would have been an increase in 2011 over 2009. The cap is pegged to total revenues. It will always go up as the league revenue increases.