San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 To an extent, you are right. However, do recognize that there ARE evaluations that teams do of QBs and some of the "clowns" in the media were in the league and did that for a living - so they have some credibility. I definitely agree that if a team in need of a QB thinks a particular player has a good probability of being a good starting NFLQB, then they should take him with their 1st pick, no question. However, I think what we have this year is a bunch of QBs who are judged to have only a moderate chance of becoming a good starter in the league. Then the question becomes how much are you willing to bet that one of these guys will pan out? Maybe the 8th overall pick is too much to bet - depends on the professional scout's judgement of the probability of success. Kdiggs made some nice points but OldTimer speaks for me in this discussion. Submitted for consideration: Cam Newton: 2010 Passer rating of 182.0, 66.1%, 2854 yds, 10.2 yds/att, 30 TDs, 7 int. Geno Smith: 2012 Passer rating of 163.9, 71.2%, 4205 yds, 8.1 yds/att, 42 TDs, 6 int. source: www.profootballreference.com If Newton had been available to us in the 2011 draft, instead of Marcel Dareus, I'm willing to go out on a limb and say we would have taken Newton. Newton and Smith are not the same QB of course, but analytics may bring you to the conclusion that Smith is attractive at #8. As OldTimer suggested, the stats you posted might not be deep enough to be considered analytics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap'nCrunch Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As OldTimer suggested, the stats you posted might not be deep enough to be considered analytics. Agreed. These stats are, at least, a starting point to have discussion. Even when "investing" in a new toaster I like to look at more than price, so investing in a million dollar player deserves as in-depth analysis as a team is willing and able to do. I like to get into stats as deeply as possible. How much is the average fan willing and able to do? Many fans go by "gut feel" and many form their opinions by what the experts say. Each method is fine, as each fan has his/her own point at which they become comfortable forming an opinion. I will refrain from using the term "analytics" when simply presenting stats. Thanks for coaching me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 In regards to all this analytics stuff, wouldn't us fans be able to match or exceed the accuracy of the Bills analytics machinery? After all, analytics is supposed to take the subjectivity (GM or scout personal experience in selecting talent) out of the equation for identifying particular football players to invest in. Analytics likely focuses more on objective findings (individual or team stats, strength of opponents, years of experience, etc) and that, we as fans have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Agreed. These stats are, at least, a starting point to have discussion. Even when "investing" in a new toaster I like to look at more than price, so investing in a million dollar player deserves as in-depth analysis as a team is willing and able to do. I like to get into stats as deeply as possible. How much is the average fan willing and able to do? Many fans go by "gut feel" and many form their opinions by what the experts say. Each method is fine, as each fan has his/her own point at which they become comfortable forming an opinion. I will refrain from using the term "analytics" when simply presenting stats. Thanks for coaching me up. It was merely a suggestion on my part, Cappy. I understand what advanced stats/sabermetrics are but I'm still not totally clear on "analytics." I don't think that they're quite the same thing but I think analytics are supposed to have some sort of predictive value. Not sure though. In regards to all this analytics stuff, wouldn't us fans be able to match or exceed the accuracy of the Bills analytics machinery? After all, analytics is supposed to take the subjectivity (GM or scout personal experience in selecting talent) out of the equation for identifying particular football players to invest in. Analytics likely focuses more on objective findings (individual or team stats, strength of opponents, years of experience, etc) and that, we as fans have access to. I don't know. They could be using advanced stats that we'd have to pay extra for. I do know that several NFL teams have been subscribing to advanced stats/metrics groups like Pro Football Focus, Cold, Hard, Football Facts, and Football Outsiders. I know that Aaron Schatz who founded Football Outsiders recently participated in the MIT Sloan Analytics Conference with Scott Pioli and the Niners' Paraag Marathe. I think as more teams create their own department that there will be some movement of talent between these private subscription sites and the teams themselves. I wish sports analytics existed when I was young because I was a major sports statistics nerd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For crying out loud, no QB is going to be worth the 8th pick in this draft, NO ONE!! Fitz for all the hate was 7 points or less from a win in 4 of those games the Bills lost last year. A catch here, a defensive stop there and the Bills are 10 - 6 and in the playoffs. Winning and losing is THAT close in the NFL, and I hope to God that Nix and Marrone KNOW that they have a very serviceable QB in Fitz. That means that we take the best player difference maker we can at 8 or move back and stockpile picks for the second round. Some are saying we have a lot of holes, well, yeah sure, but we also have new coaches and a completely different philosophy and I'm optimistic that the new regime will finally know how to use our guys better. Adding weapons on offense and defense while keeping Fitz and drafting a Nassib, Bray, Manuel type QB is the best move for us, IMO. Nothing on either Smith or Barkleys tape reveals to me that they are starting caliber QB's. Not yet anyway, and I think clear headed thinking needs to override impatience this year. Tim- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For crying out loud, no QB is going to be worth the 8th pick in this draft, NO ONE!! Fitz for all the hate was 7 points or less from a win in 4 of those games the Bills lost last year. A catch here, a defensive stop there and the Bills are 10 - 6 and in the playoffs. Tim- The Fitz excuse factory keeps on chugging along... How about, "if the guy could hit a deep out of more then ten yards for once in his life, the Bills are in the playoffs?" Stop thinking about the #8 pick and ask if any QB available will be an improvement over Fitz. I think you can make that case for smith due to his accuracy and the much better arm, and maybe Barkley because we don't know what his ceiling is. We've seen Fitz hit his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm hoping they take a LB at #8, not a QB or WR. Take whatever top line QB is left in round 2, then take another LB in round 3, and a WR in 4 that they can bring along. A WR takes a year or two to develop. We really need a #1 (Johnson is really a #2 or even a slot guy), but I'm hoping we get a good, starting WR in FA to pair with Johnson this year while Graham or this year's draft choice pans out. Then next year, we might very well be taking a QB again but in RD 1 and even another WR in RD 2. This is where I am = LB - QB - LB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Best mock? This one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp 2 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Jamarcus Russell 2006 Passer rating of 167.0, 67.8%, 3129 yds, 9.1 yds/att, 28 TDs, 8 int just sayin Your point being...What does JR stats has to do with Geno Smith's? By all accounts they're totally different in their approach football wise...please elaborate, if you could. What's your criterion for future NFL QB's? All these guys coming out of college have skills & abilities...that's why they're in the discussion as potential future NFL'ers. But if their skills are not a good marriage for the team or coaching staff's scheme implemented, it's a concoction for disaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Best mock? This one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBHPmYIxaiI Oh, that is classic Monty Python, my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Your point being...What does JR stats has to do with Geno Smith's? By all accounts they're totally different in their approach football wise...please elaborate, if you could. What's your criterion for future NFL QB's? All these guys coming out of college have skills & abilities...that's why they're in the discussion as potential future NFL'ers. But if their skills are not a good marriage for the team or coaching staff's scheme implemented, it's a concoction for disaster... Agree and disagree. I agree with your point about matching skills with team - it is very important. However, I think the issue with this year's crop of QBs is that they are considered lacking in one or more areas necessary for success in the NFL. Now, I am not saying that a player can't be good at the NFL level with some limitations, but the more limitations a QB has, the more constrained the offense and lower probability of success. (The following are based on what I have read and seen, not statements of fact since I am not a scout and even professional scouts are not perfect): Geno Smith - is actually pretty undersized for a QB at 208 pounds and has quite small hands. Concerns exist around how forceful a leader he is and his ability to rally his team when down. Tyler Wilson - Shorter than ideal, not particularly stoutly build, either at 210ish pounds. Ryan Nassib - Shorter than ideal, not very mobile/fast, debates about his arm strength (but it looks solid to me). Matt Barkley - Shorter than ideal, not strongly built, shoulder injury concerns, questions about his arm strength. EJ Manuel - Best set of physical characteristics, but questions about his throwing motion and consistency. I haven't touched on difficult to evaluate skills such as reading defenses, making quick decisions/knowing where to go with the ball, performing under pass rush pressure etc. Were it not for questions about Barkley's arm strength, I think he'd be a very good prospect. (I know, I know USC QBs "suck"... To that I ask: tell me what other great QB has come out of Pitt since Dan Marino in 83? How about all of the "great" Miami QBs after Jim Kelly?) Will one or more of the above become good starting QBs in the NFL? I don't know, but I think the questions that come with each are enough to make me question taking one of them early in round 1. If I had to bet, based on what I've read and my biases about what makes a good QB, I'd say the best prospects are (about the same level): Barkley, Nassib and Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xsoldier54 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For crying out loud, no QB is going to be worth the 8th pick in this draft, NO ONE!! Fitz for all the hate was 7 points or less from a win in 4 of those games the Bills lost last year. A catch here, a defensive stop there and the Bills are 10 - 6 and in the playoffs. Winning and losing is THAT close in the NFL, and I hope to God that Nix and Marrone KNOW that they have a very serviceable QB in Fitz. That means that we take the best player difference maker we can at 8 or move back and stockpile picks for the second round. Some are saying we have a lot of holes, well, yeah sure, but we also have new coaches and a completely different philosophy and I'm optimistic that the new regime will finally know how to use our guys better. Adding weapons on offense and defense while keeping Fitz and drafting a Nassib, Bray, Manuel type QB is the best move for us, IMO. Nothing on either Smith or Barkleys tape reveals to me that they are starting caliber QB's. Not yet anyway, and I think clear headed thinking needs to override impatience this year. Tim- Could not disagree more. Although I would agree that the defense was equally at fault for many of the team's losses. However after watching Fitz for three years, I have to conclude that he just doesn't have it. He misses too many easy throws, makes too many bad decisions at critical times that lead to interceptions and he just doesn't seem to have the capability to lead the team to win close games. He may be a serviceable backup QB, but definitely not starting QB material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Could not disagree more. Although I would agree that the defense was equally at fault for many of the team's losses. However after watching Fitz for three years, I have to conclude that he just doesn't have it. He misses too many easy throws, makes too many bad decisions at critical times that lead to interceptions and he just doesn't seem to have the capability to lead the team to win close games. He may be a serviceable backup QB, but definitely not starting QB material. The multi-million dollar question is whether any of the QBs in the draft are better than backups or low-end starters. If not, then spending the 8th pick on one of them is too rich. I agree that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not good enough to lead the Bills deep into the playoffs, even with a very good supporting cast. I just don't know if any of the QBs in the draft are so significantly better that they are worth a high pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You would take him at 15 but not at 8? If he's a first round talent and has the possibility to be solid player at the most important position on the field then you draft the guy at 8. Indeed. Based upon bits and scraps of Nix quotes combined with reported interest pre-draft, I think it's possible that the Bills intended to draft Cousins or Russell in the 4th round last year - and were blindsided when Wilson went in the 3rd and the Redskins double-dipped at QB early in the 4th. I think they may have liked Ponder or Kaepernick in 2011 but were hoping to pick one of them up in the 3rd. The basis for this viewpoint is some Nix quotes last fall about how if you think there's a good guy you like in the 2nd or 3rd, you better take him in the 1st compared to previous talk about "staying with the integrity of the board" Yeah, yeah, Meathead, I looked for the link and couldn't find it. Sue me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bisonbrigade Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 1. Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia 2. Tyler Wilson QR. Arkanas 3. Ryan Swope. WR Texas A&M 4. Jonathan Bostic ILB Florida 5. Chris Gragg TE. Arkanas 6. Xavier Nixon OG Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Indeed. Based upon bits and scraps of Nix quotes combined with reported interest pre-draft, I think it's possible that the Bills intended to draft Cousins or Russell in the 4th round last year - and were blindsided when Wilson went in the 3rd and the Redskins double-dipped at QB early in the 4th. I think they may have liked Ponder or Kaepernick in 2011 but were hoping to pick one of them up in the 3rd. The basis for this viewpoint is some Nix quotes last fall about how if you think there's a good guy you like in the 2nd or 3rd, you better take him in the 1st compared to previous talk about "staying with the integrity of the board" Yeah, yeah, Meathead, I looked for the link and couldn't find it. Sue me. Yeah we all remember him saying that. Unfortunately it had the ring of a person who had learned the lesson he was espousing, the hard way. Similar to when Nix recently pointed out that you could draft a QB-WR combo like Cinci did with Dalton and Green. His enlightenment as a GM has tended to happen after the fact, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 (edited) With the word on the street that the Raiders are trying to trade their #3, I think that's the only way we get Geno. Even then, it may be too late if Jax grabs him. Otherwise, there's no absolute way he falls to our spot. Yep, I can't see it happening. There are four teams in front of the Bills that need QBs, and Smith is probably the best QB in the draft. Someone will take him. Whatever his flaws, he's a student of the game with a big, fairly accurate arm along with decent size, pretty good athleticism, and good pocket presence. I do think there's a chance that Barkley will be there, although according to this story by Dan Pompeii he's reportedly climbing up draft boards: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-1729.html . Edited March 4, 2013 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep, I can't see it happening. There are four teams in front of the Bills that need QBs, and Smith is probably the best QB in the draft. Someone will take him. Whatever his flaws, he's a student of the game with a big, fairly accurate arm along with decent size, pretty good athleticism, and good pocket presence. I do think there's a chance that Barkley will be there, although according to this story by Dan Pompeii he's reportedly climbing up draft boards: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-1729.html . That was an excellent article. It is very difficult to determine who has the right intangibles plus at least enough physical talent, but it is so important. As the article says: many of the top QBs aren't the ones with the strongest arms, best height/weight, fastest, etc. It is the guys that have the drive, leadership, quick decision making, ability to decipher defenses AND yet have enough physical skills to thrive. Who are those guys in this draft class? Barkley?, Nassib?, Wilson???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bunk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not a huge Geno Smith guy. To be honest all of these QB's turn me off. I'd rather take a flyer on Tyler Bray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep, I can't see it happening. There are four teams in front of the Bills that need QBs, and Smith is probably the best QB in the draft. Someone will take him. Whatever his flaws, he's a student of the game with a big, fairly accurate arm along with decent size, pretty good athleticism, and good pocket presence. I do think there's a chance that Barkley will be there, although according to this story by Dan Pompeii he's reportedly climbing up draft boards: http://www.nationalf...Blitz-1729.html . Between now and draft night i can see so many things happening. To me this draft is so muddy with who thinks what about which player. I think some teams will be posturing and playing games to see if a desperate team will bite on a trade. I believe there just might be a few teams who value one guy way more then another team, so they just may make the trade. With the cap now in place for the draft the not jumping up because of the huge salary increase is gone. This should allow a few teams to take an educated risk on a guy. We could see a record amount of first round trading...or we could see everyone stay pat. This year is a total crap shoot i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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