San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Okay, so we Bills fans are all hip and modern and into football analytics now... so can a football sabermetrician out there tell me if there's a better formula than the Parcell's rule for predicting NFL success? http://www.footballo...r-forecast-2012 There's another system. Note the prediction for Russel Wilson. Also Hondo, what do you think of that 26-27-600 Rule posted upthread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Two things regarding this topic... 1. EJ Manuel somehow always gets forgotten in these discussions and I simply don't know why. He has 25 wins and his completion percentage is around 68% for his career. I would love it if he or Nassib were there for the Bills in round 2. Totally agree. I like Manuel. I would be happy with Manuel, Glennon or Nassib in Rd2. I'm hoping the Bills re-sign Levitre but if he walks, grab Warmack in Rd1 and then the best QB in Rd2. If you keep Levitre, take the best LB in Rd1 and the best QB in Rd2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Totally agree. I like Manuel. I would be happy with Manuel, Glennon or Nassib in Rd2. I'm hoping the Bills re-sign Levitre but if he walks, grab Warmack in Rd1 and then the best QB in Rd2. If you keep Levitre, take the best LB in Rd1 and the best QB in Rd2. Other than Glennon (who I really wouldn't like in any round) we're on the same wavelength. I was thinking the same thing after watching Warmack destroy people last night. If they do let Levitre walk, you can then use the money they would have had to pony up for that fat contract to grab two really good LBs in FA (that is, if there are any available). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsGuyInMalta Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Warmack is fine in my books, but then again so is any top notch DE, DT, LB, CB or WR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjjr Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 If we agree that the elite QBs in the NFL are P.Manning, T.Brady, A.Rodgers, E.Manning, M.Ryan, B.Roethlisberger and A.Luck will be then they have following minimum stats from college.. Minimum 25 starts (Rodgers+Brady) Conf Win%= 58% (E.Manning) TD-Int Ratio= 1.58 (M.Ryan) Comp %= 60% (M.Ryan) Ryan played on a very average BC team and won a lot of close games late. E.Manning played for Ole Miss in the SEC so winning games was tough. Rodgers was a JC transfer and Brady competed with D.Henson at Michigan. The QBs that meet this criteria would be.... Geno Smith EJ Manuel Landry Jones Matt Barkley Tahj Boyd Matt Brown (Illinois State) Collin Klein Aaron Murray and AJ McCarron would make it too but aren't coming out this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xsoldier54 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The interesting thing to me was the Jason Campbell rating. I have been an advocate for signing him to be the "placeholder" QB until whomever we draft is ready. I think he could run the "read option" offense that seems to be the current trend in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GibranHamdansGhost Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I think that last year's draft class was just exceptional. Russell Wilson is a freak of nature. Andrew Luck and RGIII are the real deal, but Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert are poster boys on why you shouldn't waste a first rounder on a quarterback or play a rookie quarterback right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Bledsoe was a very good qb Bledsoe came out as a junior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Bledsoe came out as a junior. Nice pick up. So Parcells didn't follow his own rules when selecting with his best draft pick. Heh....go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I hardly think of Parcells as a Qb guru. And how in the world can people make any judgement on McCarron? With his line, it's like varsity vs. JV. Most decent Qbs would thrive at Bama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Nice pick up. So Parcells didn't follow his own rules when selecting with his best draft pick. Heh....go figure. That is what always amazed me about this whole "Parcells Rules" hub bub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 That is what always amazed me about this whole "Parcells Rules" hub bub. Any QB metric that fails to account for the QB's ability to complete passes is probably going to be very limited. Granted, winning games will tend to correlate somewhat with completing passes, but it's pretty far removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 FINALLY my boy Manuel is gettin some love from TBD - I was on an island for a long time....guess we just needed to talk "Parcells" and people start coming around haha... for real, im not saying Manuel is gauranteed to light the world on fire from jumpstreet....I just think he has all of the tools, has done it week in and week out against the best competition in college ball, and can still grow in mechanics (which arent bad) and accurarcy (which isnt bad) with the right coach/offensive scheme...he seems to be "the best of the bunch" and im willing to take a gamble on him - especially in round two.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Assuming they're both graduating Smith and Barkley should both qualify. Landry Jones also. That's about it though. Ya but only one in this reply is worth the look !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
l< j Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 i didn't look through all the threads but it appears it may be 27 times Speaking of analytics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I think it perhaps pertinent to reflect on the QBs that Parcells drafted(3rd round or higher)..... In 19 years as HC.... Jeff Hostetler (Round 3, pick 3) Drew Bledsoe (Round 1, pick 1) Well, both of those guys did win Superbowls but I'm told what worked then isn't relevant now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts