NoSaint Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yes...I forgot his GM years... Chad Pennington (Round 1, pick 18) 2000 Also yes.... Chad Henne (Round 2, pick 26) 2008 and... Pat White (Round 2, pick 12) 2009 IMO there we no true star QBs selected by Parcells using his formula.....arguably no good QB either. Bledsoe was a very good qb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 So it appears that the "Parcells Rules on QBs" yielded 1 good quarterback (Bledsoe) in 4 tries. Pennington was decent to good. Hostetler I don't count because he was drafted by legendary Giants GM George Young. I don't believe Parcells had much to do with that pick. The other two (Pat White, Chad Henne) basically suck/sucked. Even if you give Parcells credit for all 5, it's not exactly a resounding endorsement of his rules. Not bad but not all that great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The rule is determine Peyton Manning from Ryan Leaf not to be Applied to any QB at any time willy nillY. I also believe completition percentage is in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 The rule is determine Peyton Manning from Ryan Leaf not to be Applied to any QB at any time willy nillY. I also believe completition percentage is in there too. All the links I saw only have the same 4 rules I posted upthread. Not saying I'm right but can't find anything that contradicts what we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 All the links I saw only have the same 4 rules I posted upthread. Not saying I'm right but can't find anything that contradicts what we already have. You are correct. I was thinking of the 26-27-600 rule which is far more interesting tHan Parcells' rule. I'd like to see the 26-27-600 Rule applied to first round QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Bledsoe was a very good qb I used the term arguably because I didn't want things turning into an old argument about Bledsoe's abilities. I personally think he was good....not very good. Some think he was bad or very bad & I guess some think he was great or horrible also. The pertinent point I think is that none of Parcells drafted QBs ended up being of the calibre that we are wanting our new QB to be. IMO the Parcells rule is a good guideline but one should not discount players that don't fit into the rules(for many varied reasons). This likely applies to all sets of rules in these sort of situations. You are correct. I was thinking of the 26-27-600 rule which is far more interesting tHan Parcells' rule. I'd like to see the 26-27-600 Rule applied to first round QBs. For those interested....this article explains and covers recent history with the 26-27-60 rule: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/john_lopez/07/08/qb.rule/index.html Interestingly Fitz is on the relatively short list of QBs given since 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Furthering(for interest sake).... 2011 draft class. 26-27-60 qualifiers: Greg McElroy Christian Ponder Blaine Gabbert Ricky Stanzi Andy Dalton 2012 draft class. 26-27-60 qualifiers: Andrew Luck Russell Wilson Nick Foles Kirk Cousins Interesting misses 2011 + 2012 Cam Newton Jake Locker Colin Kaepernick Robert Griffin III Ryan Tannehill Brandon Weeden Brock Osweiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 I do think the Parcells rules have met their expiration date, FWIW, due to the natire of the game changing. Someone posted this link in one of the recent "football analytics" threads, and it summarizes a fairly accurate formula (roughly 70%), although it's dated from 2011: http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/QB_College-QB-Vers1.0_2-17-2011.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Worked well for Matt Ryan, eh? Chad Henne too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJasper Probincrux III Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Obviously we don't know wonderlic - so here's how they do on the 1st 2 parts Tyler Wilson - FAIL 25 starts (lost one due to injury as a senior otherwise would have made it) Matt Barkley - PASS Landry Jones - PASS Ryan Nassib - PASS (barely) Geno Smith - PASS Zac Dysert - PASS Tajh Boyd - PASS (barely on starts) Mike Glennon - PASS (by the slimmest of margins, 26 starts and >60% completions by 4 completions over his entire career) So this shows us almost zip w/o the wonderlic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Obviously we don't know wonderlic - so here's how they do on the 1st 2 parts Tyler Wilson - FAIL 25 starts (lost one due to injury as a senior otherwise would have made it) Matt Barkley - PASS Landry Jones - PASS Ryan Nassib - PASS (barely) Geno Smith - PASS Zac Dysert - PASS Tajh Boyd - PASS (barely on starts) Mike Glennon - PASS (by the slimmest of margins, 26 starts and >60% completions by 4 completions over his entire career) So this shows us almost zip w/o the wonderlic. Should be 27 starts. That would rule out Glennon yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Okay, so we Bills fans are all hip and modern and into football analytics now... so can a football sabermetrician out there tell me if there's a better formula than the Parcell's rule for predicting NFL success? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 (edited) Okay, so we Bills fans are all hip and modern and into football analytics now... so can a football sabermetrician out there tell me if there's a better formula than the Parcell's rule for predicting NFL success? I would think that if there was one then at least one team would have used it by now. Success rates for virtually all positions and draft places(except 1st round interior OL & #1 in the draft) are extremely low. If fans fully understood the average chance that their 1st round choice has of becoming a good starter in the NFL there would likely be a lot less interest shown by said fans. Edited January 8, 2013 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 i didn't look through all the threads but it appears it may be 27 times I honestly don't think that word has ever been used on TBD before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatszel Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Furthering(for interest sake).... 2011 draft class. 26-27-60 qualifiers: Greg McElroy Christian Ponder Blaine Gabbert Ricky Stanzi Andy Dalton 2012 draft class. 26-27-60 qualifiers: Andrew Luck Russell Wilson Nick Foles Kirk Cousins Interesting misses 2011 + 2012 Cam Newton Jake Locker Colin Kaepernick Robert Griffin III Ryan Tannehill Brandon Weeden Brock Osweiler It would be interesting to see where they fall short as the miss group appears as though it may change the rule some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJasper Probincrux III Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Should be 27 starts. That would rule out Glennon yes? Yes, Glennon now fails by 1 game Boyd had 27 on the dot IIRC Re the misses the last couple years I dunno if we know for sure about Newton, Locker, or Kaepernick yet. RG3 was a miss he probably missed on starts but he was injured so it might be relevant to note why a player misses the starts category, are they not playing or did they get hurt 1 year. I was really underwhelmed by Tannehill when I saw him, Weeden stinks, and we know nothing on Osweiler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Wasn't the "Parcells rule" refering specifically to drafting a QB in Rd1? As I remember it, Parcells had said he would not take a QB in Rd1 unless they meet these criteria. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matteboots Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 There is no formula that will dictate whether or not a QB will be successful in the NFL. They are human beings and not robots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2012/lewin-career-forecast-2012 There's another system. Note the prediction for Russel Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Two things regarding this topic... 1. EJ Manuel somehow always gets forgotten in these discussions and I simply don't know why. He has 25 wins and his completion percentage is around 68% for his career. I would love it if he or Nassib were there for the Bills in round 2. 2. Secondly, the competitive drive aspect of an elite QB can not be discounted. Of course you must have the physical skills necessary, but you also must have that huge competitive drive, determination and work ethic. Just look at guys like Brady, Manning, Brees. All of them have these traits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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