John Potter - Why a kick-off specialist makes sense

[UConn James]

I can see your point.

 

My rebuttal: there are only 32 teams in the NFL. Are there seriously not 32 kickers on the planet that can accurately kick FG's AND hammer home touchbacks 85% of the time?

 

Seems strange that it's such a rare combination--but, like you said, maybe it is.

 

I would hazard a guess that a majority of them play pro soccer/kickball for lots more $.

[TakeYouToTasker]

You cannot possibly overstate the importance of field position and the ability to neutralise the most dynamic play-makers/momentum changes on your opponents roster. Potter needs to stay.

[uncle flap]

Part of my argument is actually based on what Lindell himself said. A few years ago he re-upped with the Bills and he basically said (I am paraphrasing), "look, there isn't much of a FA market for kickers. Each team needs only one, and there's enough guys out there that can do this, so most guys are lucky to have a job."

 

I am paraphrasing, of course.

 

Just seems odd to me that these professional kickers can't boom touchbacks, esp with the move of the kick-off line. But apparently that is the case and I am wrong, since the Bills feel they need two guys to do the job. Just seems crazy.

 

I wasn't trying to call you out or anything; It's a good question especially considering what Lindell said.

 

However, I think he is selling himself short. Remember what happened when he was injured last year? Where were all those guys who are as good as he is?

 

There are a lot of guys who have the physical tools to play the position, but I think on top of that special combination of strength and skill, an NFL kicker needs to have nerves of steel. Even more so, they need to be pretty damn consistent.

 

Anyway, I think in the near future (unless in the unlikely case kickoffs are abolished altogether), kickers wont get a sniff at a roster unless they can do both.

 

As it stands now, It boils down to a cost/benefit analysis between a fringe roster spot vs field goal consistency vs touchback consistency. The Bills seem content on keeping both Potter and Lindell and I imagine Potter will prove to be more valuable than the guy who would fill that final roster spot. To use the OP's premise: Yes, I'd rather have Potter than Ruvell Martin.

Edited August 23, 2012 by uncle flap

[BuffaloBill]

The Bills likely keep him but not long term if he can't handle kickoff and field goal duties.

[The Senator]

Interestlingly (to me, anyway), a handful of kickers were cut in the past week or so - yet Potter remains. I think he's our long kicker this season - and, long-term, our only kicker.

 

(BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to see punter Shaun Powell placed on the practice squad if he clears waivers - I love Brian Moorman, but he'll be a 37 year-old free agent this spring.)

[LiterateStylish]

This is why. It makes sense because every single yard gained results in a higher chance of the offense scoring. When the offense starts their drive at the 20 yard line, they have approximately an 8% chance of scoring a TD. When an offense starts their drive at the 30 yard line, they have about a 12% chance of scoring a TD. Throughout the course of a game, you're looking at a 16-30% higher chance of scoring a TD when starting your drive at the 30 versus the 20.

 

Conversely, if the defense can force a 3 and out, you're looking at starting YOUR drive at about the 40 yard line. And that is if their punter pulls off a 60 yard punt. Starting at the 40 yard line carries a 15% chance of scoring a TD. Nearly DOUBLE the chance of scoring from the 20 yard line.

 

[Mr. WEO]

Troup or kickoff specialist?........

[l< j]

This is why. It makes sense because every single yard gained results in a higher chance of the offense scoring. When the offense starts their drive at the 20 yard line, they have approximately an 8% chance of scoring a TD. When an offense starts their drive at the 30 yard line, they have about a 12% chance of scoring a TD. Throughout the course of a game, you're looking at a 16-30% higher chance of scoring a TD when starting your drive at the 30 versus the 20.

 

Conversely, if the defense can force a 3 and out, you're looking at starting YOUR drive at about the 40 yard line. And that is if their punter pulls off a 60 yard punt. Starting at the 40 yard line carries a 15% chance of scoring a TD. Nearly DOUBLE the chance of scoring from the 20 yard line.

 

 

Hey, new guy brought charts and facts and stuff.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

This is why. It makes sense because every single yard gained results in a higher chance of the offense scoring. When the offense starts their drive at the 20 yard line, they have approximately an 8% chance of scoring a TD. When an offense starts their drive at the 30 yard line, they have about a 12% chance of scoring a TD. Throughout the course of a game, you're looking at a 16-30% higher chance of scoring a TD when starting your drive at the 30 versus the 20.

 

Conversely, if the defense can force a 3 and out, you're looking at starting YOUR drive at about the 40 yard line. And that is if their punter pulls off a 60 yard punt. Starting at the 40 yard line carries a 15% chance of scoring a TD. Nearly DOUBLE the chance of scoring from the 20 yard line.

 

 

Uh…. wow.

 

Welcome to the board.

[LiterateStylish]

 

Welcome to the board.

 

Thanks.

 

Go Bills!

[GoBills!]

I get that he is good and lowers ST duties but we still punt the ball and kind of often last I checked....so ST is still needed but I think he beats out Rian for some reason

[Captain Caveman]

I don't know--a bit torn on this one.

 

With the kickoff line pushed up, shouldn't every starting NFL kicker be able to boom touchbacks on a regular basis? Lindell can drill a 53 yard FG, but he can't be counted on to kick touchbacks?

 

Right. Lindell can not be counted on for touch backs.

[LiterateStylish]

This is why. It makes sense because every single yard gained results in a higher chance of the offense scoring. When the offense starts their drive at the 20 yard line, they have approximately an 8% chance of scoring a TD. When an offense starts their drive at the 30 yard line, they have about a 12% chance of scoring a TD. Throughout the course of a game, you're looking at a 16-30% higher chance of scoring a TD when starting your drive at the 30 versus the 20.

 

Conversely, if the defense can force a 3 and out, you're looking at starting YOUR drive at about the 40 yard line. And that is if their punter pulls off a 60 yard punt. Starting at the 40 yard line carries a 15% chance of scoring a TD. Nearly DOUBLE the chance of scoring from the 20 yard line.

 

 

It made sense to the Bills too.

 

Potter made the team.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

When we took a kicker in the 7th round, I assumed he would be heading straight for the practice squad.

 

Now, I think I've see the light. Welcome to the team Potter!

[8-8 Forever?]

Everyone is voicing so much concern about keeping John Potter, yet no one ever is against keeping Ruvell Martin or Corey McIntyre because they are Specialists. Here is the reality - by keeping Potter it actually opens up roster spots. For kickoffs, NFL teams dislike using their good players as there is a significant increased risk in injury (punts don't have the set up as a kickoff), therefore teams need 10 quality players for kick coverage. By having Potter, you eliminate the need for these 10 players and roster spots on players such as McIntyre, could be used elsewhere. One would argue that most of these people are also on punt coverage, but that actually isn't entirely true given the nature of the play (you may have 5-6 players overlapping).

I love this Potter thing. Now your special teams cover unit doesn't need to be great. You can keep more second team skill guys as they don't need to be special teams experts anymore. Just kick the thing into the stands. The kickoff as we know it is going away before the end of the decade IMO.