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Lichtman's 13 Keys to the WH


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Funny since you came here and effectively blasted conservatives with your retard spin and used your military experience as a reason to spout your retard spin.

 

Not surprised after reading the garbage you post on the shout box.

Used my military experience? Huh. And define my "retard spin," please. I'm not blasting conservatives, little boy. I'm blasting conservatives who can't back up what they spew with facts. You're in the same sack of shatnthat the kid who can't spell traveler is. Carry on young man.

 

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Me and gungy v. the world. Get w/ it.

 

Hell of an alliance you got there :P:lol:

 

Used my military experience? Huh. And define my "retard spin," please. I'm not blasting conservatives, little boy. I'm blasting conservatives who can't back up what they spew with facts. You're in the same sack of shatnthat the kid who can't spell traveler is. Carry on young man.

 

Right lemming :lol:

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Hell of an alliance you got there :P:lol:

 

 

 

Right lemming :lol:

Lemming. That kills me, seeing that I'm one of exactly two people in this thread tonight that isn't married to an ideology that he doesn't even understand. Crows. Loud in numbers. Cawww. Cawwww. Cawww. That's all anyone hears.

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Lemming. That kills me, seeing that I'm one of exactly two people in this thread tonight that isn't married to an ideology that he doesn't even understand. Crows. Loud in numbers. Cawww. Cawwww. Cawww. That's all anyone hears.

 

And which ideology would that be?

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Well I'm glad you're weeding out the men for your creepy quest for seeking boys.

 

Whatever floats your boat

There are some smart people here in the PPP. Even the right wingers. And you are making nobody proud, my friend. Not a Goddamn soul.

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There are some smart people here in the PPP. Even the right wingers. And you are making nobody proud, my friend. Not a Goddamn soul.

 

Join me Gungy. Join the liberal PPP brigade. But to do so, you must calm yourself. Go into the energy thread and read the debate and join opposing Romney's backwards energy policy. Join the debate on writing down mortgage interest. Make a thread about how he's the golden boy of economics but his policies (vague as they may be) are indistinguishable from standard GOP dogma. Hell make a general thread on how he stands for nothing. And yes, it is acceptable to post in opposition if someone claims that he is more self made than Obama...but remain calm in your dealings with the right here. Remember you will never change anybody's mind here on the candidate but you can have discussion on some issues and learn more about why Romney supporters believe in certain policies...you can even find areas where you can convince them there is valid argument for the other side (though you won't change their mind overall and your mind won't be changed).

 

In general just represent opposition to Romney policy well. They all think we're idiots and love to bash all policy not in line with right wing dogma...but show them it isn't true. And you can also find out there are some issues where they aren't evil or completely retarded either (wind tax credits not going to be one of them) but the point is...don't allow yourself to be fuel for the "liberal idiot" fire they love to see. Join me my gungified brother, walk with me to the promise land of PPP as we reign fire upon the heathen Rush Limbaugh minions and take our rightful seat at the throne of wisdom and leadership and all things wise in this world.

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Join me Gungy.

 

Yes. Join him. And Big Cat. And Park. And conner. And EII. You'll be in great company. And Gungy, you bring nothing but a higher level of discourse to this group. Be sure to jump in about how the only reason Obama hasn't been more successful is because the GOP hates everyone not earning $500K a year...and black people. Don't forget to ensure you don't post without first reading your latest Axelrod tweet.

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Yes. Join him. And Big Cat. And Park. And conner. And EII. You'll be in great company. And Gungy, you bring nothing but a higher level of discourse to this group. Be sure to jump in about how the only reason Obama hasn't been more successful is because the GOP hates everyone not earning $500K a year...and black people. Don't forget to ensure you don't post without first reading your latest Axelrod tweet.

 

Join me LA

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Yes. Join him. And Big Cat. And Park. And conner. And EII. You'll be in great company. And Gungy, you bring nothing but a higher level of discourse to this group. Be sure to jump in about how the only reason Obama hasn't been more successful is because the GOP hates everyone not earning $500K a year...and black people. Don't forget to ensure you don't post without first reading your latest Axelrod tweet.

And don't forget that it is vitally important that in order to address the tax code, that we MUST see mitts tax returns.

 

 

 

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Wow. Is this Gugny guy/girl anything other than a product of a sexual moment between Conner, DiN and EiL? It's like it came to PPP to just spread its special brand of e-coli. It's like bitter meets imbecile, and they both take on the other's bad qualities.

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This well has a wife, son, job mortgage and real bills, buddy. When mom and dad stop paying your car insurance you'll be on my level. I'm busy for more than 12 hours a day. You spend that much time figuring out what Rush Limbaugh's drugged up ass wants you to say to people like me.

 

 

 

Yes. Sons of governors always make their names on their own. Great observation.

$D0;)& 5U*%C #%H$E&% :$5&%* B7{#%A $(:9<#G@

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He also has experience sheltering his money so it does not go to helping the US.

 

 

Mitt paying more taxes will not help the USA, because we do not have an income problem, we have a spending problem.

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Join me Gungy. Join the liberal PPP brigade. But to do so, you must calm yourself. Go into the energy thread and read the debate and join opposing Romney's backwards energy policy. Join the debate on writing down mortgage interest. Make a thread about how he's the golden boy of economics but his policies (vague as they may be) are indistinguishable from standard GOP dogma. Hell make a general thread on how he stands for nothing. And yes, it is acceptable to post in opposition if someone claims that he is more self made than Obama...but remain calm in your dealings with the right here. Remember you will never change anybody's mind here on the candidate but you can have discussion on some issues and learn more about why Romney supporters believe in certain policies...you can even find areas where you can convince them there is valid argument for the other side (though you won't change their mind overall and your mind won't be changed).

 

In general just represent opposition to Romney policy well. They all think we're idiots and love to bash all policy not in line with right wing dogma...but show them it isn't true. And you can also find out there are some issues where they aren't evil or completely retarded either (wind tax credits not going to be one of them) but the point is...don't allow yourself to be fuel for the "liberal idiot" fire they love to see. Join me my gungified brother, walk with me to the promise land of PPP as we reign fire upon the heathen Rush Limbaugh minions and take our rightful seat at the throne of wisdom and leadership and all things wise in this world.

 

You act all leader like but leaders have guts. You don't even have enough guts to comment in the Sarah Palin thread?

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So Lichtman rejects polls all together and also finds the common thinking of "economy is everything" to be an overstatement. He claims to have 13 keys that don't miss and haven't since he started in the early '80s. Taken from wikipedia his keys are as follows:

  • Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Romney
     
  • Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Obama
     
  • Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Obama
     
  • Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Obama
     
  • Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Undecided
     
  • Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Romney
     
  • Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Obama
     
  • Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Obama
     
  • Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Obama
     
  • Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Obama
     
  • Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Obama
     
  • Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Romney
     
  • Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Obama

The bold portion is as predicted by him (not me) quite a while ago. I heard an interview w/ him on Sirius in the car earlier today (prompting this thread) and he says it's solid, hasn't changed and he still predicts Obama to win.

 

http://www.usnews.co...-to-win-in-2012

 

What does PPP think about his methodology and prediction?

 

 

Looks like a bunch of subjective crap put together in order to sell a book.

 

How many elections have been that hard to predict since the 1980's? 1 Maybe?

 

You could have 10 people answer those same questions and get 10 different answers. So are the 13 Keys the important part, or are the subjective answers he gives to those keys the important part?

 

Picking Reagan twice, Bush I once, Clinton twice, Bush II twice, and Obama once wasn't exactly rocket science. Hell, the only incumbent that didn't win in that time frame was Bush I. And Key #4 looks like it was developed specifically with Bush 1 in mind, making me wonder how he had these keys put together and used since the 80's.

 

This is a thread based on a stupid gimmick to make money, and you shouldn't be surprised by the stupidity it's generated.

Edited by Joe Miner
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