Who Do You Think Will Win The Presidential Election?

[SactoBillFan]

There's actually a fantastic documentary on HBO on demand about Bush Sr. and he's real frank and open but when asked if he'll talk about Perot he just says: "No...I don't like him and I think he cost me the election and that's all I'll say about that." lol

 

Perot did get close to 20% of the popular vote where Clinton got just a little under 6% over over Bush. Could have been a significant difference. Oh well, it's in the past now.

[SactoBillFan]

You do have a point, however obamas approval rating and consumer confidence, which are two of the best indicators there are for whether or not a president gets re elected are below where any sitting president has ever been re elected with. WAPO had a good little write up about that today.

 

Bush's approval rating dropped significantly from 2001 to 2004. In the end I believe the voters will stick with what they know vs an unknown. Could be wrong, the economy probably needs to take a severe dump. We'll find out in November.

[WorldTraveller]

Bush's approval rating dropped significantly from 2001 to 2004. In the end I believe the voters will stick with what they know vs an unknown. Could be wrong, the economy probably needs to take a severe dump. We'll find out in November.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-president-obamas-reelection-is-no-sure-thing--in-2-charts/2012/07/18/gJQAXWWwtW_blog.html

 

From yesterday

[WorldTraveller]

Just to add what we were talking about:

 

The Tale of Two Campaigns

 

"One is being staged inside Washington — and President Obama is winning that one resoundingly. The other is set in the rest of the country — and that one is a dead heat between Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

 

That disconnect was driven home with the release of three national polls on Wednesday by the New York Times/CBS, Fox News and National Public Radio.

 

In the NYT/CBS poll, Romney took 47 percent to 46 percent for Obama; the NPR poll put the race at Obama 47 percent, Romney 45 percent, and Fox News gave Obama a four-point edge.

 

The tightness of those three surveys is consistent with polling over the last month despite the fact that Romney has seemingly had one of the worst periods of his general election campaign, buffeted by questions about when he left Bain Capital and why he won’t release more of his tax returns."

 

"Not only have most voters made their minds up but they have also seemingly decided that this election is about the economy — first, second and third.

 

In Gallup polling, two-thirds of people said the most important issue facing the country is economic-related ( jobs, budget deficit, etc.) while 43 percent named non-economic issues.

 

And, on that economic front President Obama is clearly struggling. Just 39 percent in the NYT-CBS survey approved of how he is handling the economy while 55 percent disapproved. That’s a marked change from April when Obama’s economic approval (44%) and disapproval (48%) ratings ran far closer. Another troubling number for Obama: 51 percent of people in the NYT-CBS poll say that a president “can do a lot” to make the economy better, up 10 points from those who said the same in September 2011."

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/a-tale-of-two-campaigns/2012/07/19/gJQAP6kxvW_blog.html?hpid=z2

 

 

 

This is the point I've been hammering away at some of you hard heads, this election is about the economy, the more the Obama campaign focuses on Mitt's tax returns, the more he loses ground, simply because those independent swing voters that they are both fighting for, couldn't give a flying flip about Mitt's tax returns relative to who can improve their lives.

 

Also, Cilliza from WAPO may as well replace the word "Washington Beltway" with "Mainstream media"

 

In the mainstream media, Romney has been getting killed, but at the end of the day, it hasn't made a significant difference.

Edited July 19, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[Rob's House]

I find it surprising that so many people outside the left see Romney as the underdog. Obama's popularity has taken a nose-dive, the economy is in sad sorry shape without much hope of improvement anytime soon, & Obama has no message to pitch...well, except Romney's rich. Once they hit the debates I fully expect Romney to hand Obama his ass. And this new Marxist tone isn't going to go away. I don't know if it's a ploy to charge up his base at the risk of alienating others, if it's a hail mary, or if he knows it's over & wants to start the Marxist meme to tilt the conversation in that direction so as to legitimize it & soften up the country in hopes his socialist dream will be realized down the road, but without a serious game changer I think he's dead in the water.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Rob's House

[IDBillzFan]

In the mainstream media, Romney has been getting killed, but at the end of the day, it hasn't made a significant difference.

I'm sure things will turn favorably for the president once more of America sees the true "Blue Collar Obama."

[/dev/null]

I find it surprising that so many people outside the left see Romney as the underdog.

 

The underdog image helps Romney more than hurts.

If Obama were the underdog he could dust off the old Change We Can Believe In Need signs and run as the outsider. As the favorite, he is the Washington insider this time. In 2008, it was about sticking it to The Man. But now Obama can't run against The Man because he is The Man.

 

I'm sure things will turn favorably for the president once more of America sees the true "Blue Collar Obama."

Obama needs fewer speeches with TOTUS in front of the big adoring crowds of liberals and more of those photo friendly speeches in front of some factory equipment or a tractor where he takes off his tie and rolls up his sleeves

[Doc]

The underdog image helps Romney more than hurts.

If Obama were the underdog he could dust off the old Change We Can Believe In Need signs and run as the outsider. As the favorite, he is the Washington insider this time. In 2008, it was about sticking it to The Man. But now Obama can't run against The Man because he is The Man.

"Change We Need," when he's what we need changing from, rings pretty hollow.

 

"Vote for me because I was trying my first 4 years and I didn't tell the proper story. Now I'm going to start doing and I have a good story to tell you."

[truth on hold]

I imagine he'll characterize his first 4 years as cleaning up the mess inherited from bush, made more difficult by republican obstructionists in senate and congress. And represent his 2nd term as the time to more fully implement his plan and ideals. But he better not overplay this 2nd part, he'll risk alienating alot of centristss who'll view that as moving too far left.

[TakeYouToTasker]

I imagine he'll characterize his first 4 years as cleaning up the mess inherited from bush, made more difficult by republican obstructionists in senate and congress. And represent his 2nd term as the time to more fully implement his plan and ideals. But he better not overplay this 2nd part, he'll risk alienating alot of centristss who'll view that as moving too far left.

If President Obama gets down in the mud and fights he's going to lose, because he's not going to making use of the real bully-pulpit power of the presidency. Any president who has to agressively defend his record opposed to running on it is pretty well !@#$ed. If this President wants four more years all he has to do is announce and circulate a detailed four year economic growth plan certified by the CBO, and produce an economiclly sound bugdet. Romney wouldn't stand a chance.

Edited July 20, 2012 by TakeYouToTasker

[truth on hold]

He has no choice not to comment on his 1st term. The #'s are sh#t. The main theme of the romney camp is already BO doesnt know f#&@all about the economy and they have the #'s to back it up. He has to confront it and put it in the context of blaming the prior REPUB administration

Edited July 20, 2012 by Joe_the_6_pack

[dayman]

He has no choice not to comment on his 1st term. The #'s are sh#t. The main theme of the romney camp is already BO doesnt know f#&@all about the economy and they have the #'s to back it up. He has to confront it and put it in the context of blaming the prior REPUB administration

 

Romney has been wisely vague (not to open up to any shots) on his plan and is no where to be seen with W, Boehner, even Palin at the convention (lol)....he's the "outsider" the sound business man who had nothing to do with these jokers and you should trust his success even if you don't like Congress (independents vote Romney!).

 

If there's one thing he's not going to do it's give up his edge in this arena. Obama will have trouble blaming the GOP (even where they rightfully deserve it) but they're skilled to some extent they may be able to do it and certainly if there's an opening...so Romney is going to be defensive here...deny the opening and all chips in. That leaves nowhere to go for Obama but to contradict his last message and attack Romney as someone not trust simply based on his Bain success b/c the job is different and look at Bain they export jobs and this guy is hiding his taxes and you don't know who he is and he fires people that's not the POTUS job blah blah...ultimately Romney is wise here.

 

Then there will be the basic campaign messages arguing where the strength of the country comes from.

 

Ultimately if Romney can keep his cool and play the campaign conservative he has the best shot. If he gets into actual political war ... Obama is good even with his baggage.

 

The key will be the debates. Those will open up new avenues for both and Romney has to find a way to not come off boiler-plate in responses, give just enough substance but leave no openings, and somehow not look like a stiff standing next to Obama.

 

If he can basically just play conservative he has the best shot. He's playing the Bills of old. Runt the ball, don't turn it over, they can't score anyway if you don't give it to them, and you'll win by 3 or 7 points. Obama is Byrd back there hawking...waiting for an opening to take one back to the house for the upset. That's the way I see it.

Edited July 20, 2012 by TheNewBills

[TakeYouToTasker]

He has no choice not to comment on his 1st term. The #'s are sh#t. The main theme of the romney camp is already BO doesnt know f#&@all about the economy and they have the #'s to back it up. He has to confront it and put it in the context of blaming the prior REPUB administration

A modern Democratic incumbent can control the conversation.

[dayman]

A modern Democratic incumbent can control the conversation.

 

Romney is hell bent on not letting that happen though, and with good reason. He'll broken record his pitch on the economy to stonewall that and at some point other issues will come but all in all if the numbers don't improve he'll be able to prevent any pivoting from that discussion. Wouldn't you say?

[TakeYouToTasker]

Romney is hell bent on not letting that happen though, and with good reason. He'll broken record his pitch on the economy to stonewall that and at some point other issues will come but all in all if the numbers don't improve he'll be able to prevent any pivoting from that discussion. Wouldn't you say?

Like I said, an incumbent who has to agressively defend his record opposed to running on it is pretty well !@#$ed.

[Juror#8]

Wish they could both lose or that some odd brokered convention angle would happen.

 

It won't so we're left (or right) with someone who can't structure, can't connect, can't prioritize, can't message, and can't get out of his own way AND a challenger who is a pathetic one-trick pony who is spineless and who would lie about his own gender to exploit an angle.

 

Bunch of dolts get a bunch of dolt candidates, right?

[truth on hold]

What's this "lie about his own gender" reference to Romney?

[Juror#8]

What's this "lie about his own gender" reference to Romney?

 

Not literally. Just pointing out what a spineless, repugnant, piece of canary **** he is.

[dpberr]

Romney and it's probably not even close.

 

It's the economy and that's it. All the other stuff is just static.

 

It feels a lot like 1979 to me.

 

For those that were around for that election,there are plenty of parallels between the then and the now.

[IDBillzFan]

For those that were around for that election,there are plenty of parallels between the then and the now.

I read a comment online this morning from Jay Leno stating that so many people are turning on Barack Obama, even Jimmy Carter is comparing him to Jimmy Carter.

Edited July 20, 2012 by LABillzFan