Jaws has Fitz #24

[eball]

First, I think Fitz deserves a ranking at this point of no higher than "middle of the pack" so I'm not particularly critical of Jaws' ratings. But the argument Fitz is not a "winning" QB is a joke. Look at the teams he has played on. This year he will line up with the best overall talent on a roster he's ever played with, and then he may be fairly judged on his ability to fill the "W" column. VERY few QBs are good enough to overcome a weak roster and produce wins.

 

In my opinion, too much is being made of the "mechanics" issue. These are tweaks, not wholesale changes, and I see no reason why a smart guy like Fitz (he went to Harvard, you know) won't be able to incorporate them into his game and improve his consistency.

 

In any event, rankings are "fun" and get everyone talking.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

20 to 24 is about where i would list him.

[NoSaint]

Curious as to how you would know this for a fact?

 

I'd think it'd be easier for professional athletes to make adjustments as they already have to be adept at changing styles and play for various situations to make it professionally. But, I have no professional experience of my own, so I have not a clue.

My theory is two fold

 

1- he has a ton more reps invested perfecting his previous in order to become tops in the world

 

2- he has to absolutely perfect the new method while playing against top competition

 

 

I decide to go throw up shots with new technique and the standard to succeed is easier to reach, and as I don't chart hundreds of shots, as long as it feels better ill probably call it success. Not true for an nfl qb. He's at the point where incremental improvements are much harder to come by. I have a ton of ways to get better still though

Edited June 18, 2012 by NoSaint

[Chandler#81]

Being dubbed a 'gunslinger' is just a cool term for poor mechanics. Fitzy seems to always sidearm sling passes with his feet in any position they happen to be in when he decides to throw. He's actually very effective with this, though it's definitely poor mechanics. With an injured rib cage, it severely hampered his ability to will the pass where he thought it would go. I share some of the optimism that he's smart enough to take Lee's direction to heart, but he got to this level not relying on proper technique and it's natural for him. So in the heat of the game it will be interesting to see if these newly learned techniques will come into play.

Our overall success is going to depend on it, I'm afraid..

[Hplarrm]

If Lee can transform a veteran who over seven seasons has a career 76.5 QB rating and who has never led a winning team into a championship QB, then Lee belongs in the hall of fame.

While I doubt Lee can make mere changes in mechanics which transform an impressive sportsman who has registered so-so results (at best)intp a consistent winner, I do think that real world results have shown us that Gailey has the ability to construct an offense which has a so-so player at QB into a consistent winner.

 

I do not know the exact #s but my sense is that if one compared the QB ratings (not a perfect measure of a QB but the best we got)of QBs like Kordell and Bulger before Hailey got to them and after they were chosen and learned to implement the Gailey O style one would see some pretty amazing transformation in the statistical rating of the QB.

 

Can Lee turn iron into goal or a sow's ear into a silk purse?

 

Nope pretty doubtful.

 

However, can running an O designed for the limited talents of an O with some good mentl upsides as well result in notasbly better W/L performance? The real world results say YES.

 

The actual results give me good confidence in Gailey as an HC with some great offensive chops. However, the real world says clearly this is not sufficient to make a team SB worthy.

 

The interesting thing for us is that we are not simply relying on Gailey's proven ability to get us to the promised land but we are also augmenting this with:

 

1. A vastly improved D which at this point appears to have at least 3 DL players who demand a double-team (super Mario, Pro Bowl worthy Williams and higly rated and good freshman year Dareus) and also MIGHT have a surgically recovered and still young player at DE/OLB. This D shows reasonable potential to both deliver the ball with good field position to the O but also save the Os butt when it makes a mistake.

 

2. A renewed focus on ST which has the supplement of not only proven in the past leadership, but also is clearly drafting players with college demonstrated ST results and with an eye toward some plan (likely beyond the ken of us mere mortals who are not lucky enough to be paid hundreds of thousands annually to run an ST.

 

3. Some fairly demonstrated skill ST players in former Pro Bowler Moorman and all time successful Bills kicker Lindell.

 

4. The unfortunate fact a goal of vast improvement is not making the SB but simply making the playoffs.

 

I think it really misses the point to merely calculate whether Lee can QB coach us to vast statiscal improvement, the question is whether the interlocking pieces of what is the best team game in professional sports can achieve not too lofty improvements in its WL to also cause some fairly massive improvement in the statistical accomplishments of the QB.

 

I think there is little doubt this is possible and merely through the law of averages says this result is probably evem likely unless Mr. Ralph does something stupid like rely upon a beancounter like Littman to buid this team rather than turn the keys over to trained football on field professionals.

 

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day and in this case folks are quite reasonably excited as mr. Ralph may well after over a decade have stimbled on to a playoff worthy team.

[ganesh]

And Vinnie Iyyer @ Sporting News has him ranked @ #20....

 

NFL QB Ranking

 

After the Top 10 QBs it doesn't matter whether you are the 12th best or 20th best.....The difference is a pretty thin line between a Jay Cutler to Fitzpatrick to a Dalton...They are all inconsistent QBs.

 

Fitz game should improve with:

 

1. Return of Eric Wood to Center

2. Return of Jackson as the starting RB

3. Hopefully a dominating Defense that will STOP THE RUN

4. A better starting LT in Cody Glenn who can hold the fort

 

And himself (Fitz) improving his mechanics and reduce his mental mistakes.

 

There are lot of good things aligning for Fitz. It is now up to Fitz and Gailey to execute.

[mattsox]

Jaws is stupid, he and the rest of the media hate us. #24 is low.

 

I would like to see where he relates to others.

 

I hope that's sarcasm.

 

I find Jaws out of all ESPN Jackasses to be the most insiteful. I have a strange feeling if Fitz doesn't correct himself or start out so hot, Young might be our answer @ QB.

[wnyBacker]

Sounds somewwat on....

 

If you put the 24 ranked qb surrounded by a good team then that qb will look a whole lot like a top 10 .......

[biglukes]

You're going to have a hard time convincing me that Cassell, Palmer, Sanchez, Hasselveck/Locker, and whoever the Browns throw out there are any better than Fitz. Plus Tebow being on the list at all is a joke. Sounds like as an ESPN employee, Jaws had to get the obligatory Tebow reference in.

[hondo in seattle]

I like Jaws because he's a Lackawanna boy and besides (1) he obviously knows football, especially the QB position, and (2) he does more film study than most of analysts on TV.

 

But, like anyone, he has flaws. Film study isn't the same as being with the guy in the huddle. Jaws used to like TE because he saw on film that Edwards had good mechanics and good accuracy. What he didn't see was that TE wasn't executing the game plan, wasn't throwing to the primary because he was afraid or whatever, and wasn't inspiring his fellow players.

 

His rating of Fitz is fair based on what the tape will tell him. I doubt if he's factoring in Fitz's guts and leadership. And I wonder if he's considering the broken ribs. Painful ribs will play havoc with mechanics, though of course, Fitz's mechanics were flawed before then.

 

All in all, I think #24 is fair based on past performance. My expectation for this year, though, is much higher. I'm really hoping, especially with Coach Lee here and lots of guys getting healthy, for Fitz to have a career year in 2012.

[NoSaint]

I like Jaws because he's a Lackawanna boy and besides (1) he obviously knows football, especially the QB position, and (2) he does more film study than most of analysts on TV.

 

But, like anyone, he has flaws. Film study isn't the same as being with the guy in the huddle. Jaws used to like TE because he saw on film that Edwards had good mechanics and good accuracy. What he didn't see was that TE wasn't executing the game plan, wasn't throwing to the primary because he was afraid or whatever, and wasn't inspiring his fellow players.

 

His rating of Fitz is fair based on what the tape will tell him. I doubt if he's factoring in Fitz's guts and leadership. And I wonder if he's considering the broken ribs. Painful ribs will play havoc with mechanics, though of course, Fitz's mechanics were flawed before then.

 

All in all, I think #24 is fair based on past performance. My expectation for this year, though, is much higher. I'm really hoping, especially with Coach Lee here and lots of guys getting healthy, for Fitz to have a career year in 2012.

 

its also hard to project forward even with perfect information of the past. you just dont know what might happen - an injury, a change in OC, some just plain bad luck etc..... trent looked the part, and JP had a ton of potential - neither panned out but it doesnt mean you cant acknowledge that each had a lot of potential that went untapped for a variety of reasons.

[26CornerBlitz]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/18/ryan-fitzpatrick-expect-big-things-from-the-bills/

[San-O]

Hard to argue with 24 if you take emotion out of it-

 

Inconsistent

Too many INTs

Does not produce wins

 

Maybe he can continue the "we are dis-respected, 7th round nobodies" theme the offensive guys have been rolling with and turn the rankings upside down!

 

 

I don't know that mechanics is going to change the INTs that much.

 

He led the league in INTs.

 

That's not good.

[eball]

I don't know that mechanics is going to change the INTs that much.

 

He led the league in INTs.

 

That's not good.

Huh? If poor mechanics led to underthrown or inaccurate balls that were intercepted, there's a direct relationship.

 

From Tim Graham this morning, after discussing that throwing to the left seems to be Fitz's primary mechanical defect:

 

"A review of the official NFL game summaries shows Fitzpatrick threw eight of his 23 interceptions to the left side of the field (short and deep). He threw seven in the middle of the field and eight on the right side.

Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions while trying to connect with Johnson on deep throws to the left in a close loss to the New York Giants in Week 6.

Fitzpatrick also threw interceptions to the left against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, the Miami Dolphins in Week 11, the Dolphins again in Week 15 and the New England Patriots twice in Week 17."

[Dorkington]

My theory is two fold

 

1- he has a ton more reps invested perfecting his previous in order to become tops in the world

 

2- he has to absolutely perfect the new method while playing against top competition

 

 

I decide to go throw up shots with new technique and the standard to succeed is easier to reach, and as I don't chart hundreds of shots, as long as it feels better ill probably call it success. Not true for an nfl qb. He's at the point where incremental improvements are much harder to come by. I have a ton of ways to get better still though

We're talking about small changes to a pro athlete, though. As said elsewhere, to make the jump into "elite" QB completion percentage he would have had to only complete one more pass a game last year. Don't you think a couple adjustments to remove a couple ugly duck passes a game can result in that? And then combined with having to take less risks because of an assumed better defense, shouldn't Fitz's stats look a lot better without major changes in his game?

 

He's going to have to prove it, but I don't see it as a daunting task.

 

Huh? If poor mechanics led to underthrown or inaccurate balls that were intercepted, there's a direct relationship.

 

From Tim Graham this morning, after discussing that throwing to the left seems to be Fitz's primary mechanical defect:

 

"A review of the official NFL game summaries shows Fitzpatrick threw eight of his 23 interceptions to the left side of the field (short and deep). He threw seven in the middle of the field and eight on the right side.

Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions while trying to connect with Johnson on deep throws to the left in a close loss to the New York Giants in Week 6.

Fitzpatrick also threw interceptions to the left against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, the Miami Dolphins in Week 11, the Dolphins again in Week 15 and the New England Patriots twice in Week 17."

I'm sure the bunches at the end of the season were not helped by busted ribs either (having to torque the body to get the ball to the left side).

Edited June 18, 2012 by Dorkington

[Fan in Chicago]

Huh? If poor mechanics led to underthrown or inaccurate balls that were intercepted, there's a direct relationship.

 

From Tim Graham this morning, after discussing that throwing to the left seems to be Fitz's primary mechanical defect:

 

"A review of the official NFL game summaries shows Fitzpatrick threw eight of his 23 interceptions to the left side of the field (short and deep). He threw seven in the middle of the field and eight on the right side.

Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions while trying to connect with Johnson on deep throws to the left in a close loss to the New York Giants in Week 6.

Fitzpatrick also threw interceptions to the left against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, the Miami Dolphins in Week 11, the Dolphins again in Week 15 and the New England Patriots twice in Week 17."

 

I did not read TG's article. Is he implying that mechanics are not necessarily to blame for the middle and right ? Because that is a pretty even distribution of INTs (acknowledging that there isn't enough data to understand what percent of his total throws each represents). I would presume that mechanics would improve his overall INT numbers and the improvement should be more pronounced on the sideline throws which he has lot of difficulty with. In any case, it remains to be seen how much of an improvement we will see and if it is a function of when in the season he is playing i.e. does his accuracy diminish as the season wears on ?

 

As several have acknowledged, this is Fitz's make or break year. I wish we had one more proven WR so that there would be no excuses left (save for injuries)

[eball]

I did not read TG's article. Is he implying that mechanics are not necessarily to blame for the middle and right ? Because that is a pretty even distribution of INTs (acknowledging that there isn't enough data to understand what percent of his total throws each represents). I would presume that mechanics would improve his overall INT numbers and the improvement should be more pronounced on the sideline throws which he has lot of difficulty with. In any case, it remains to be seen how much of an improvement we will see and if it is a function of when in the season he is playing i.e. does his accuracy diminish as the season wears on ?

 

As several have acknowledged, this is Fitz's make or break year. I wish we had one more proven WR so that there would be no excuses left (save for injuries)

The issue identified by Lee, as I understand it, is that Fitz's mechanics were poor on throws to his left. He had bad footwork, resulting in loss of power and accuracy on throws to the left. That was the focus of TG's blog, along with comments by Stevie that during OTAs Fitz looked much stronger throwing to the left.

 

I agree, the dispersion of INTs looks very balanced, from left to middle to right -- what we don't know is the number of corresponding attempts.

[vincec]

While I doubt Lee can make mere changes in mechanics which transform an impressive sportsman who has registered so-so results (at best)intp a consistent winner, I do think that real world results have shown us that Gailey has the ability to construct an offense which has a so-so player at QB into a consistent winner.

 

I do not know the exact #s but my sense is that if one compared the QB ratings (not a perfect measure of a QB but the best we got)of QBs like Kordell and Bulger before Hailey got to them and after they were chosen and learned to implement the Gailey O style one would see some pretty amazing transformation in the statistical rating of the QB.

 

Can Lee turn iron into goal or a sow's ear into a silk purse?

 

Nope pretty doubtful.

 

However, can running an O designed for the limited talents of an O with some good mentl upsides as well result in notasbly better W/L performance? The real world results say YES.

 

The actual results give me good confidence in Gailey as an HC with some great offensive chops. However, the real world says clearly this is not sufficient to make a team SB worthy.

 

The interesting thing for us is that we are not simply relying on Gailey's proven ability to get us to the promised land but we are also augmenting this with:

 

1. A vastly improved D which at this point appears to have at least 3 DL players who demand a double-team (super Mario, Pro Bowl worthy Williams and higly rated and good freshman year Dareus) and also MIGHT have a surgically recovered and still young player at DE/OLB. This D shows reasonable potential to both deliver the ball with good field position to the O but also save the Os butt when it makes a mistake.

 

2. A renewed focus on ST which has the supplement of not only proven in the past leadership, but also is clearly drafting players with college demonstrated ST results and with an eye toward some plan (likely beyond the ken of us mere mortals who are not lucky enough to be paid hundreds of thousands annually to run an ST.

 

3. Some fairly demonstrated skill ST players in former Pro Bowler Moorman and all time successful Bills kicker Lindell.

 

4. The unfortunate fact a goal of vast improvement is not making the SB but simply making the playoffs.

 

I think it really misses the point to merely calculate whether Lee can QB coach us to vast statiscal improvement, the question is whether the interlocking pieces of what is the best team game in professional sports can achieve not too lofty improvements in its WL to also cause some fairly massive improvement in the statistical accomplishments of the QB.

 

I think there is little doubt this is possible and merely through the law of averages says this result is probably evem likely unless Mr. Ralph does something stupid like rely upon a beancounter like Littman to buid this team rather than turn the keys over to trained football on field professionals.

 

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day and in this case folks are quite reasonably excited as mr. Ralph may well after over a decade have stimbled on to a playoff worthy team.

All of this is nice, but mediocre QBs don't win championships except in very rare circumstances. Fitz isn't elite and the Bills don't have any elite prospects, unless you believe it's Vince Young. Therefore, the Bills are no where near winning a championship. It's the one big hole in the Nix-Gailey rebuilding plan. They keep saying that they are trying to find a developmental QB but they haven't done it yet.

 

I agree that they are close to making the playoffs however, which should make for an entertaining season.

Edited June 19, 2012 by vincec

[NoSaint]

We're talking about small changes to a pro athlete, though. As said elsewhere, to make the jump into "elite" QB completion percentage he would have had to only complete one more pass a game last year. Don't you think a couple adjustments to remove a couple ugly duck passes a game can result in that? And then combined with having to take less risks because of an assumed better defense, shouldn't Fitz's stats look a lot better without major changes in his game?

 

He's going to have to prove it, but I don't see it as a daunting task.

 

 

I'm sure the bunches at the end of the season were not helped by busted ribs either (having to torque the body to get the ball to the left side).

 

If it were that easy, everyone would be great. It's easy to say, very hard to do.

[FleaMoulds80]

I'm not a huge fan of Fitz but that's too low. I'd rank him somewhere between 17-20.