Gaughan Fitz Article Re: D. Lee and Mechanics

[CosmicBills]

Fallacies of TSW regarding fitz:

 

1. He can't get better. --> Last year was his best year by leaps and bounds, there is no evidence or body of knowledge to suggest he won't keep improving. Brett Farve had his best season his second to last. Elway took over a decade to Play his best. Warner, Gannon, steve young, All got off to slow starts but finished strong. Look at the 2011 Vick compared to the falcons Vick.

 

2. You can't win without an elite or franchise qb-->There are plenty of examples of each case. There is no absolute. Carson Palmer was by definition a franchise qb. Cinci ditched him and had their best year in ages with an unknown rookie. Rivers is a franchise qb, yet SD struggles to get over the playoff hump.

 

Franchise qb of dream team Vick failed to lead the eagles anywhere.

 

Eli beat Brady twice in the biggest game. Eli has been questioned as a franchise qb year after year, not so much for tommy...

 

3. Fitz stats show he is not accurate--> comp % is very good. Fewer picks and hed rate in top 5

 

4. He was in the Harvard marching band... There are plenty of articles about that.

 

1. This is certainly the biggest question and debate about Fitz. I don't think many of the serious critics on here are arguing that improvement overall isn't possible. Most are debating about whether or not he can improve his accuracy -- more than just completions, I'm talking where he's hitting WRs with the ball. Way more often than not, Fitz makes a completion on the wrong shoulder or high which wound up getting Johnson hit a ton. A QB has to be able to protect his guys as well as complete passes.

 

Many people debate whether accuracy can be taught. A lot of coaches and Hall of Fame QBs believe that it's innate. Sure, with better footwork and technique you can bump your Completion % up 2-5 points, but 6-10 points? That just doesn't happen that often. To be an elite QB in the new pass happy NFL you need to be closer to 65% -- Fitz has only been over 60% once in his career (last season). He's a career sub 60% passer after 7 seasons in the league, 3.25 seasons as a starting QB.

 

2. This is incorrect. You simply must have a Franchise or Elite QB to win the Super Bowl in today's modern NFL. Doesn't mean having one guarantees you a ring -- but not having one diminishes your team's chances incredibly. You have to go back 10 years to find a team that won without a Franchise QB.

 

Eli is not only a franchise QB, he's one of the most clutch players in the NFL. No one doubts his place on the list anymore, and anyone who was paying attention didn't doubt him coming into the season. He improved each and every year, is absolutely unstoppable in the 4th quarter and big games -- he's in the top 4 QBs in the league without question.

 

3. Fitz's career completion percentage is 59. He was 62% last year but a closer inspection reveals that number was incredibly inflated due to a hot start. In the first 8 games he threw for over 65% 5 times and over 70%, including a 77% game, 3 times. Those are phenomenal numbers. But over the final 8 games he was over 65% only twice (the highest being 66.7%)

 

Was this due to the massive amount of injuries? Certainly possible. Or was this a regression to his career mean? Also possible. We'll find out soon enough, but the stats do show that he has struggled to be accurate. The game film even more so.

 

4.

[Juice_32]

Did we just put the glasses on Wildthing Vaughn or something...

 

ROFL! Dude, I just woke my wife up laughing from that one. Good way to end the night.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Last year was his second year as a starter on the Bills and the second year in the same system. He's 30 and closer to the end of his career than the beginning -- which is basically saying "he is what he is by now." Can he improve? Maybe.

 

Upfront: We agree that the team should have the talent to be a playoff contender this year, for the first time in ....just ages. So let's hope they Get'r done.

 

We disagree that W-L record is the only appropriate yardstick to measure QB quality. Kind of an interesting article on the topic of QB quality vs wins/championships Here

 

Reductio ad absurdum:

Think Jim Kelly would have led the Bills to 4 SB without Biscuit and Smith on the other side of the ball, or Thomas and Reed with him, just on the strength of his charismatic super-inspirational powers? Nuts. Thinks Rypien and Hostetler are better QB than Kelly because they won SBs? Also nuts. They had better coaching on that day, and on that day, better line play on their team esp D line, and they were able to capitalize. Modern example: Cam Newton set all kinda rookie records, and his team lost. Does that make him crap as a QB because he didn't win this year?

 

Moral: to allow that special QB moxie-dust to raise those teammates to that special level, there has to be enough team talent there to be raised, on both sides of the ball. Oh, and coaching.

 

Now on that 30 year old, "is what he is by now" thing, Pop quiz:

1. How old was Steve Young in 1992 when he played his first 16 game season with SF?

2. How old was Rich Gannon in 1999 when he started for Oak?

 

No, this isn't comparing Fitz to Young and Gannon, the point is, some QB come into the league NFL-ready, and some take time to develop - if they develop. And there's nothing special about age 30 that prohibits a hot hand from showing itself. QB who are drafted late or UDFA are statistical outliers, and the norm probably lacks predictive power there.

 

Whatevs though. Enjoy your view!

[Captain Caveman]

Did we just put the glasses on Wildthing Vaughn or something...

 

You gotta name or are you gonna settle for veg-head?

[CosmicBills]

Upfront: We agree that the team should have the talent to be a playoff contender this year, for the first time in ....just ages. So let's hope they Get'r done.

 

We disagree that W-L record is the only appropriate yardstick to measure QB quality. Kind of an interesting article on the topic of QB quality vs wins/championships Here

 

Reductio ad absurdum:

Think Jim Kelly would have led the Bills to 4 SB without Biscuit and Smith on the other side of the ball, or Thomas and Reed with him, just on the strength of his charismatic super-inspirational powers? Nuts. Thinks Rypien and Hostetler are better QB than Kelly because they won SBs? Also nuts. They had better coaching on that day, and on that day, better line play on their team esp D line, and they were able to capitalize. Modern example: Cam Newton set all kinda rookie records, and his team lost. Does that make him crap as a QB because he didn't win this year?

 

Moral: to allow that special QB moxie-dust to raise those teammates to that special level, there has to be enough team talent there to be raised, on both sides of the ball. Oh, and coaching.

 

Now on that 30 year old, "is what he is by now" thing, Pop quiz:

1. How old was Steve Young in 1992 when he played his first 16 game season with SF?

2. How old was Rich Gannon in 1999 when he started for Oak?

 

No, this isn't comparing Fitz to Young and Gannon, the point is, some QB come into the league NFL-ready, and some take time to develop - if they develop. And there's nothing special about age 30 that prohibits a hot hand from showing itself. QB who are drafted late or UDFA are statistical outliers, and the norm probably lacks predictive power there.

 

Whatevs though. Enjoy your view!

Good article.

 

But I never said all you need is a QB to win. Of course you need to build a team around him. The difference now is that with the hard cap, shorter player contracts and more movement than ever before in Free Agency, you simply cannot build a perfect team. NO team can. You have to cut corners (no pun intended since corners are highly valued, more so now than ever before) and focus the limited dollars your team has on impact areas. It's not a run first league anymore. RBs have become drastically devalued to the point where they're no longer worth a first round pick. Run stuffing LBs who can't cover the TE are becoming situational and not every down players. If you don't believe me, go look at the list of the highest paid players in the NFL today. They're all related to the passing game: QBs, Pass Rushers, CBs, WRs and LTs. And, with the emergence of seam stretching TEs, it won't be long until they're on that list as well. And TEs have NEVER been on that list.

 

It's a new NFL. You simply cannot win a title without a franchise QB. It cannot be done. It hasn't been done in over a decade. And, unless they change the rules again, it will continue to be that way. QB has always been the most important position in all of team sports. But now, they're more valuable than ever before.

 

 

Every example you cite in your post comes from the NFL of yester-year. It's fool's gold to try to compare QBs of the ground and pound era and the new high flying NFL we're seeing today. The game has changed. It's a passing league now. QBs are putting up RIDICULOUS numbers. Why? Is it because these QBs are better than the Kelly's, Montana's, and Youngs? Maybe some are. But it has way more to do with the nature of the game. Kelly played in a time where a DB could literally rape the WR he was covering, punch his mother in face and still not get called for a penalty. Now, if a DB breathes on a WR it's an automatic first down.

 

And it's not going to change.

 

The NFL is entertainment. It's about what puts butts in the seats and eyes on the TVs. That means POINTS. Lots of points. With the violence of the sport currently being cut out, what makes highlights now? TDs. Preferably long throws or big YACs. It's not just the rules changes that have impacted the glut of talented passers in the league now either. It's starting earlier.

 

QBs are throwing more than ever in HIGH SCHOOL. You have QBs throwing 40 times a game now in HIGH SCHOOL. Which has created a wealth of talent for the college game and, along with the rise of the spread, turned the NCAA into a pass first league as well. This creates more polished passers coming out of college who are better able to step in and immediately produce. Guys like Cam Newton, Stafford, and Ryan. Are they instantly Franchise QBs? No of course not. But the position is better scouted than ever before, the players better prepared and infinitely more valuable than ever because every GM knows you just cannot win a ring without one.

 

Using Kelly, Marino, Young, or anyone from the "old" NFL is a useless exercise. The game has changed. What it takes to win has changed. It's still the ultimate team sport -- but the priorities and architecture of teams will never be what it once was.

 

Can Fitz be a Franchise QB? While I don't personally believe he's capable of leading the Bills to a Super Bowl win, there are plenty here who believe he can ... and I hope they're right. But he's got one more chance. This team has to win 10 games this year AND make the playoffs. If they do that and Fitz doesn't **** the bed in the first round, he'll be around for a long time.

[ReturnoftheBuffaloBeast23]

If Fitzgarbage stinks up the joint again this year i think this website is gonna blow up...LOL... But Fitz is still A$$trash to me, here's hoping VY gets a brain this year cuz thats all he needs...

[3rdand12]

The game has changed and one of the statements in your postings tgreg99 is that no team can spend their way to the superbowl. GM's need to pick their poison as it might be described. Which might also mean a player probably can not retire with a team he was drafted to. Especially if he is quite good, he could well price himself off the team. On the other hand i think it has added a bit of a chess playing perspective to designing a roster.

But will this lead to no more long term dynasties without some expert drafting. That would be good imo.

Ryan is hoping to develop. His 5-2 run was possibly his best effort in his career. I think he can build upon that and take another step yet.

But of course this year is a year of scrutiny for our starting QB. i think that is a fact.

thanks for the insightful perspective!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

http://www.buffalone...ticle886429.ece

Big takeaways:

"Fitzpatrick's passing yardage total of 3,832 last season was third best in Bills history. He ranked sixth in the NFL in completions, ninth in completion percentage and 10th in touchdowns. He also led the league in interceptions with 23." (I didn't know Fitz was first in INT's... )

 

"There's a lot to do with that, He does an unbelievable job, fellas, at looking people off. I've coached Pennington -- smart guys. This guy looks where he's not throwing better than anybody I've ever seen." --David Lee (Nice!)

 

Interesting new video clip on Fitzpatrick by Lee: Link (gotta wade through a starting commercial, sorry).

 

The article starts with Lee praising Young for sounding confident in the huddle despite having a rough day with incompletions/interceptions, and talks about some problems with Young's mechanics that he's trying to fix, which should please the YoungOPhiles here.

 

It's the video of Fitz with Lee talking in the backround that interests me.

 

Key takeaways: Lee studied film of more than 500 passes to find patterns that needed correction. Said "sometimes he's just deadly accurate, and you don't want to mess with that at all", goes on to talk about how in those 500 passes he found patterns that he could link to a cause in the lower body and correct.

 

I think it would be a tough order for a non-Bills coach to get his hands on and go through 500 passes worth of game film to ID those patterns where there's something to fix.

 

Good article - goes on to talk about Merriman and the young LB, check it out.

[Meathead]

its amazing that they added david lee directly to the roster. not sure why they added vince young then since lee should obviously be able to do that job. not since earl morral has a man over fifty played qb. should be awesome

[chris heff]

"Every example you cite in your post comes from the NFL of yester-year. It's fool's gold to try to compare QBs of the ground and pound era and the new high flying NFL we're seeing todayThe game has changed. It's a passing league now. QBs are putting up RIDICULOUS numbers. Why? Is it because these QBs are better than the Kelly's, Montana's, and Youngs? Maybe some are. But it has way more to do with the nature of the game. Kelly played in a time where a DB could literally rape the WR he was covering, punch his mother in face and still not get called for a penalty. Now, if a DB breathes on a WR it's an automatic first down."

 

Wouldn't the reasons you cite make it easier to be a QB in today's NFL? Therefore one could conclude that those QBs of "yester-year" had to be better? Would Brady be in the same conversation with Unitas if he had to take the kind of hits Unitas did?

[NoSaint]

"Every example you cite in your post comes from the NFL of yester-year. It's fool's gold to try to compare QBs of the ground and pound era and the new high flying NFL we're seeing todayThe game has changed. It's a passing league now. QBs are putting up RIDICULOUS numbers. Why? Is it because these QBs are better than the Kelly's, Montana's, and Youngs? Maybe some are. But it has way more to do with the nature of the game. Kelly played in a time where a DB could literally rape the WR he was covering, punch his mother in face and still not get called for a penalty. Now, if a DB breathes on a WR it's an automatic first down."

 

Wouldn't the reasons you cite make it easier to be a QB in today's NFL? Therefore one could conclude that those QBs of "yester-year" had to be better? Would Brady be in the same conversation with Unitas if he had to take the kind of hits Unitas did?

 

 

again, apples to oranges. would unitas throw for 5500 yards in todays nfl? the skill set was different.

[paintmyhouse]

Fitz is dreadful. His 3800 yards puts him only 16th in the NFL in yards per game of qualified passers, so regardless of team history, he is simply average in that category. The combinations of Locker/Hassleback, Grossman/Beck and Palmer/Campbell had more yet people think Fitz actually accomplished something? Makes me chuckle. He also led the Bills to 2nd worst 3rd down conversion percentage and the 5th most 3 and outs. He had many more negatives than positives last year, and really is just par for the course for a backup QB thrust into starting who just is not capable of being that good of a QB, even though he has the 15th most starts of any person living on planet earth in the last 4 NFL seasons in which he was the starter each season for the majority of the season.

 

I sure hope he plays better, because he has been a bad QB for 7 years now.

[C.Biscuit97]

If Fitzgarbage stinks up the joint again this year i think this website is gonna blow up...LOL... But Fitz is still A$$trash to me, here's hoping VY gets a brain this year cuz thats all he needs...

 

I love that you have a picture of the dog killer and trash Fitz, when Fitz had more yards and tds & less sacks. But obviously it's because Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Donald Jones, Chandler and whatever street FA are >>>> Jackson, Macklin, Avant, Cooper (who was ahead of Nelson on the depth chart at Florida), and Celek.

[Delete This Account]

here's an interesting stat i couldn't work into my Fitzpatrick story today (Fitzpatrick getting crash course from David Lee), but will likely in the future, in regards to explaining how there was too much being asked of the Bills offense to carry the load for an injury-depleted and patchwork defense.

because let's face it, there were too many times by the end of the season, the offense was either facing a long field and/or in the position to have to play catchup.

 

the Bills went 4-0 in games Fitzpatrick attempted 29 or fewer passes last year.

they went 2-10 in games where he had 30 or more attempts.

and the two games that he won with 30 or more attempts, were the back-to-back comebacks against Oakland and New England.

 

the offense wasn't designed for Fitzpatrick to throw that many passes, nor in the end did it have the receiving weapons to do so. also, the defense didn't help. after manufacturing numerous turnovers during the first seven games, which translated into points for the offense, that side of the ledger dried up dramatically during the 1-8 spiral.

 

jw

[3rdand12]

here's an interesting stat i couldn't work into my Fitzpatrick story today (Fitzpatrick getting crash course from David Lee), but will likely in the future, in regards to explaining how there was too much being asked of the Bills offense to carry the load for an injury-depleted and patchwork defense.

because let's face it, there were too many times by the end of the season, the offense was either facing a long field and/or in the position to have to play catchup.

 

the Bills went 4-0 in games Fitzpatrick attempted 29 or fewer passes last year.

they went 2-10 in games where he had 30 or more attempts.

and the two games that he won with 30 or more attempts, were the back-to-back comebacks against Oakland and New England.

 

the offense wasn't designed for Fitzpatrick to throw that many passes, nor in the end did it have the receiving weapons to do so. also, the defense didn't help. after manufacturing numerous turnovers during the first seven games, which translated into points for the offense, that side of the ledger dried up dramatically during the 1-8 spiral.

 

jw

CC Chan Gailey, Buddy Nix

[Hapless Bills Fan]

here's an interesting stat i couldn't work into my Fitzpatrick story today (Fitzpatrick getting crash course from David Lee), but will likely in the future, in regards to explaining how there was too much being asked of the Bills offense to carry the load for an injury-depleted and patchwork defense.

because let's face it, there were too many times by the end of the season, the offense was either facing a long field and/or in the position to have to play catchup.

 

the Bills went 4-0 in games Fitzpatrick attempted 29 or fewer passes last year.

they went 2-10 in games where he had 30 or more attempts.

and the two games that he won with 30 or more attempts, were the back-to-back comebacks against Oakland and New England.

 

the offense wasn't designed for Fitzpatrick to throw that many passes, nor in the end did it have the receiving weapons to do so. also, the defense didn't help. after manufacturing numerous turnovers during the first seven games, which translated into points for the offense, that side of the ledger dried up dramatically during the 1-8 spiral.

 

jw

 

Nice article, John. Has me doing some math, though. Throwing over a 7 1/2 foot tall screen - if you got a 6'5" or 6'7" DL who can jump, is 7'6" tall enough? I guess it makes the point though.

 

I'm sure you had to pick a break point, but curious: why <=29 and >=30?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

May i suggest that part of Fitzes downfall was a lack of balance in the play calling. sure there is plenty more to it but, I expect that our quality of running backs demands that we give them the ball out of the backfield now. solidifying the o line also screams " run more because we can ".

 

This.

[eball]

here's an interesting stat i couldn't work into my Fitzpatrick story today (Fitzpatrick getting crash course from David Lee), but will likely in the future, in regards to explaining how there was too much being asked of the Bills offense to carry the load for an injury-depleted and patchwork defense.

because let's face it, there were too many times by the end of the season, the offense was either facing a long field and/or in the position to have to play catchup.

 

the Bills went 4-0 in games Fitzpatrick attempted 29 or fewer passes last year.

they went 2-10 in games where he had 30 or more attempts.

and the two games that he won with 30 or more attempts, were the back-to-back comebacks against Oakland and New England.

 

the offense wasn't designed for Fitzpatrick to throw that many passes, nor in the end did it have the receiving weapons to do so. also, the defense didn't help. after manufacturing numerous turnovers during the first seven games, which translated into points for the offense, that side of the ledger dried up dramatically during the 1-8 spiral.

 

jw

...and in that one, Tebow contributed handsomely to the Bills TO totals. Good stats and commentary, jw.

[Delete This Account]

Nice article, John. Has me doing some math, though. Throwing over a 7 1/2 foot tall screen - if you got a 6'5" or 6'7" DL who can jump, is 7'6" tall enough? I guess it makes the point though.

 

I'm sure you had to pick a break point, but curious: why <=29 and >=30?

 

picked 29 and 30 because that was the natural break last year. He threw between 30 and 34 passes five times last year, all losses. so, it seems that 30 was essentially his limit. you could break it down and say he was 4-5 when throwing 34 more fewer passes, but that proves little the numbers are more definitive when you get under 30. and, if you go back to since he started in Buffalo, he's 12-6 overall when attempting 29 or fewer passes.

 

jw

[BillsWatch]

Fitz is fun to watch, he's gutsy (bordering on stupid at times) and plays hard every snap. If accuracy can indeed be taught, which I still don't believe it can be, then Fitz would make the ideal student. Let's hope it works!!

 

This is how he resembles Jimbo so much - he is gutsy and while does not have Jimbo's chops (i.e. being recruited by Penn State to be a LB) he has his stubbornness and yes Jimbo's habit of throwing interceptions.