Buffalo Barbarian Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I was laughing my *as off reading this when my wife wanted to know what was so funny. I read her a few passages and got a blank stare. That's when I realized just how I guilty I am of indulging myself in most of those activities. Oh well, back to combine coverage I DVR'd. Same here but I just taped Total access cuz 8hrs of 40's and bench press just aren't worth 8 hr of Bitchin. But I still watch the whole draft though. Or you can watch video and try to draw your own conclusions. Then after years of doing the above you might actually develop a tiny bit of acumen as far as evaluation goes. At the very least, it's a fun way to pass the time when there's nothing more important to do. :worthy: Not to mention that for some of us, it's not just watching youtube videos. There are a number of posters that watch as much, if not more, college football than NFL. We've seen some of these kids play for the last few years, and have formed opinions from a large cross section of performances. Not to sound defensive though, because it is just all in fun and one big guess. and this X1000 Yeah but did yours follow up with, "why do you do this to yourself year after year?" For this line of questioning I have no ready answer. man you're killing me , me too. No,because she has her own strange internet obsessions(fan fic, and RP's lol) what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Same here but I just taped Total access cuz 8hrs of 40's and bench press just aren't worth 8 hr of Bitchin. But I still watch the whole draft though. :worthy: and this X1000 man you're killing me , me too. what? She writes fan fiction, from series she reads, and writes role playing scenarios for online........................stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I can understand if you don't find it productive, but to say that fans have no idea how to evaluate players and don't know a dam thing about what they are looking at is laughable. Maybe YOU don't. Many here do. How much coaches film do you watch? My guess is you don't have access to it. And my guess is that while people like to think they have a clue, they probably don't. Don't get me wrong, hobbies are good, but it's only a hobby, and people have day jobs so it is a part time hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 How much coaches film do you watch? My guess is you don't have access to it. And my guess is that while people like to think they have a clue, they probably don't. Don't get me wrong, hobbies are good, but it's only a hobby, and people have day jobs so it is a part time hobby. So in other words, by definition, you admit that you know absolutely nothing about the Bills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 So in other words, by definition, you admit that you know absolutely nothing about the Bills? Hey, I'll admit that I'm completely clueless regarding the finer points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Hey, I'll admit that I'm completely clueless regarding the finer points. Finer points perhaps for most people but not everyone. Not having access to coaches film for serious and intense evaluation, sure. But Todd's original statement was "Fans who think they have enough knowledge to even have an opinion are hilarious. Pretty much everything a draft fan says is a regurgitation of some draft "guru's" opinion." I don't think either of those sentences are remotely true. Some posters here watch a lot of college football, or at least know the players well on their favorite team that they have watched every single game that player has played. I watched every game Brock Osweiler ever played at ASU and watched him close. Do I know enough as a professional scout about him? Of course not, and not even close. But have I seen enough about him in his 412 completions in 680 attempts and 5082 yards and 33 TDs to have an opinion on him as a prospect in the pros which I watch and follow insanely over 45 years? Sure. And virtually nothing in my opinion about Osweiler is a regurgitation of a draft gurus. I don't recall ever reading one about him although perhaps I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 She writes fan fiction, from series she reads, and writes role playing scenarios for online........................stuff. and they say we are dorks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 "Finally, they can downgrade a top defensive lineman because he plays the wrong “technique.” Sure, he is 300 pounds of sculptured titanium, bench-presses old Chevy engine blocks for fun and recorded 60 career sacks at a major program, but he may not transition smoothly from three-technique to five-technique, an insurmountable adjustment that amounts to lining up about 42 lateral inches from where he did at college." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 (edited) Finer points perhaps for most people but not everyone. Not having access to coaches film for serious and intense evaluation, sure. But Todd's original statement was "Fans who think they have enough knowledge to even have an opinion are hilarious. Pretty much everything a draft fan says is a regurgitation of some draft "guru's" opinion." I don't think either of those sentences are remotely true. Some posters here watch a lot of college football, or at least know the players well on their favorite team that they have watched every single game that player has played. I watched every game Brock Osweiler ever played at ASU and watched him close. Do I know enough as a professional scout about him? Of course not, and not even close. But have I seen enough about him in his 412 completions in 680 attempts and 5082 yards and 33 TDs to have an opinion on him as a prospect in the pros which I watch and follow insanely over 45 years? Sure. And virtually nothing in my opinion about Osweiler is a regurgitation of a draft gurus. I don't recall ever reading one about him although perhaps I have. I think you're missing the point. You may know about 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 guys because you pay attention to a couple/few teams. But there are literally hundreds and hundreds of prospects from 200+ schools (including 1AA). Saying you know something about a few players is meaningless in this larger context, because the draft is basically applied game theory with 32 players with a very large number of options at any moment. It requires having strong and informed opinions about players at hundreds of schools. None of the folks we're talking about here do. Hell, no one here watches any teams but the top 40-50 or so teams in the country. They're the only ones that are ever on TV. And even then you're only going to get a couple of games a year for whatever team is in the upper middle of the pack in Conference USA. Having an informed opinion means being able to know the goods on all semi-draftable prospects, from the blue chipper at Alabama to the Michael Jaspers and Julian Edelmans of the world. No one here is even remotely informed about these folks. Edited February 27, 2012 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think you're missing the point. You may know about 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 guys because you pay attention to a couple/few teams. But there are literally hundreds and hundreds of prospects from 200+ schools (including 1AA). Saying you know something about a few players is meaningless in this larger context, because the draft is basically applied game theory with 32 players with a very large number of options at any moment. It requires having strong and informed opinions about players at hundreds of schools. None of the folks we're talking about here do. Hell, no one here watches any teams but the top 40-50 or so teams in the country. They're the only ones that are ever on TV. And even then you're only going to get a couple of games a year for whatever team is in the upper middle of the pack in Conference USA. Having an informed opinion means being able to know the goods on all semi-draftable prospects, from the blue chipper at Alabama to the Michael Jaspers and Julian Edelmans of the world. No one here is even remotely informed about these folks. Actual full time scouts dont even know that much. They get one area to concentrate on. No one in the NFL knows enough to have an informed opinion on ALL semi-draftable prospects. It's a scouting TEAM effort. Much like what we have here on the board with different posters, watching different teams, from different areas, and then all coming together to compare notes. No one is claiming we are as knowledgeable as professional scouts, but we definitely have enough information to form our own educated opinions on a large number of players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I think you're missing the point. You may know about 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 guys because you pay attention to a couple/few teams. But there are literally hundreds and hundreds of prospects from 200+ schools (including 1AA). Saying you know something about a few players is meaningless in this larger context, because the draft is basically applied game theory with 32 players with a very large number of options at any moment. It requires having strong and informed opinions about players at hundreds of schools. None of the folks we're talking about here do. Hell, no one here watches any teams but the top 40-50 or so teams in the country. They're the only ones that are ever on TV. And even then you're only going to get a couple of games a year for whatever team is in the upper middle of the pack in Conference USA. Having an informed opinion means being able to know the goods on all semi-draftable prospects, from the blue chipper at Alabama to the Michael Jaspers and Julian Edelmans of the world. No one here is even remotely informed about these folks. All that is true, but the most serious of Bills fans watch the Bills games and 2-3 other single games during a Sunday. You know a lot about Bills players and a decent amount of other players in the NFL from watching relatively little about them. You don't get coaches game film. But no one thinks you can't have a serious opinion on anybody in the league. I do agree that it's rather foolish to have a serious opinion about a guy you have only read about, or looked at stats, or watch his highlight film. That doesnt tell you much and I agree you don't even have a legitimate opinion on that guy. But there are quite a few posters here (I don't include myself) that watch and know a lot about a lot of prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 (edited) So in other words, by definition, you admit that you know absolutely nothing about the Bills? Sure. Not sure what "by definition" you are talking about, but in terms of scouting I'm sure I know next to nothing about them. I enjoy watching the Bills. Ask me to deconstruct a pass play to see if a route was run properly, and I'd probably give you a blank stare. Not to mention the invalid comparison, which is a debating trick. Comparing knowing about the Bills to hundreds and hundreds of college players probably isn't an apples to apples deal. Sorry if I insulted anyone, but I stand by my belief that most fans know next to nothing about scouting players, and are unable to do so. Most of the opinions they form about the draft are regurgitations. Edited February 27, 2012 by todd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 All that is true, but the most serious of Bills fans watch the Bills games and 2-3 other single games during a Sunday. You know a lot about Bills players and a decent amount of other players in the NFL from watching relatively little about them. You don't get coaches game film. But no one thinks you can't have a serious opinion on anybody in the league. I do agree that it's rather foolish to have a serious opinion about a guy you have only read about, or looked at stats, or watch his highlight film. That doesnt tell you much and I agree you don't even have a legitimate opinion on that guy. But there are quite a few posters here (I don't include myself) that watch and know a lot about a lot of prospects. This is kinda my point -- no one here does know. No one saw Terrence McGee games. No one saw Demetrius Bell games. No on saw Alex Carrington games. Hell, i'd be shocked if anyone watched one Mckelvin game that wasn't a college all star game. The bills scouts most likely watched every troy state game that mckelvin played in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) This is kinda my point -- no one here does know. No one saw Terrence McGee games. No one saw Demetrius Bell games. No on saw Alex Carrington games. Hell, i'd be shocked if anyone watched one Mckelvin game that wasn't a college all star game. The bills scouts most likely watched every troy state game that mckelvin played in. Dude! I most definitely watched McKelvin play in college. It wasn't an all-star game either. Troy played at FSU when leodis was there. Edited February 28, 2012 by Ramius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) This is kinda my point -- no one here does know. No one saw Terrence McGee games. No one saw Demetrius Bell games. No on saw Alex Carrington games. Hell, i'd be shocked if anyone watched one Mckelvin game that wasn't a college all star game. The bills scouts most likely watched every troy state game that mckelvin played in. I think you're undervaluing the wealth of information and ease of access to video in 2012. In 1980 Scouting may have been a dark science where only a select few had enough access to information to closely evaluate talent. Yes nobody can know everything about every prospect but a draftnik can get a lot of information and get access to game film of the likely pool of prospects when their team picks. Especially in the 1st round. THE 5TH IS UNLIKELY and the 7th is even.more unlikely, but I can get my hands on almost every game that Mike Adams or Jonathan Martin played last year. You don't have to know about Conference USA prospects to make the #10 overall selection. In all seriousness without any doubt a fan poll on TBD would have had better results in the 1st round of the NFL draft from 2000-2010 than the Billa's scouting department and their wealth of expertise. Wouldn't you agree? Edited February 28, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim in Anchorage Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 [They claim that a late-round pick is being unfairly downgraded because of character issues: he will stop habitually running over Watch for Children signs near kindergartens as soon as he has a seven-figure contract to emotionally ground him./quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bflojohn Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) Ah ****, Todd, it's just fun!! I do think many fans have a "talent" to percieve a player when they see him. They may have coached football at some point, or have been watching games for decades now, like me, and probably feel that any information is good information, so they can "play along" with the NFL heirarchy and handicap the game within a game! Heck, mock drafts from a million and one draft sites are common now, and I once was told that a stadium could probably hold all the really serious draftniks (70,000 seats or so) that buy the material and hang on the words of Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper, Jr. every winter and spring month heading towards the day. Everyone here thinks of the draft as Christmas in April, so enjoy it for what it's worth, a fans "GM for a moment" rush, and utter disappointment when Maybin goes just a little before Orakpo and YOU KNEW it was the wrong selection!?!? Note: I have flown from Phoenix to New York City to attend the draft at Radio City Music Hall, and I had a blast! It was a zoo I was meant to check into...... Edited February 28, 2012 by Bflojohn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think you're undervaluing the wealth of information and ease of access to video in 2012. In 1980 Scouting may have been a dark science where only a select few had enough access to information to closely evaluate talent. Yes nobody can know everything about every prospect but a draftnik can get a lot of information and get access to game film of the likely pool of prospects when their team picks. Especially in the 1st round. THE 5TH IS UNLIKELY and the 7th is even.more unlikely, but I can get my hands on almost every game that Mike Adams or Jonathan Martin played last year. You don't have to know about Conference USA prospects to make the #10 overall selection. In all seriousness without any doubt a fan poll on TBD would have had better results in the 1st round of the NFL draft from 2000-2010 than the Billa's scouting department and their wealth of expertise. Wouldn't you agree? The point is, youtube and a Tivo'ed game don't count as scouting "video." Also, no person watching clips and Tivo'ed games knows what any player's given assignment is on any given play. Amateur "scouting" is nothing more than a mere hobby. I've talked with scouts for both professional football and baseball down here at FSU. The typical "scouting fan" doesn't even pay attention to 95% of the things they (scouts) are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) The point is, youtube and a Tivo'ed game don't count as scouting "video." Also, no person watching clips and Tivo'ed games knows what any player's given assignment is on any given play. Amateur "scouting" is nothing more than a mere hobby. I've talked with scouts for both professional football and baseball down here at FSU. The typical "scouting fan" doesn't even pay attention to 95% of the things they (scouts) are looking for. I agree with that. I'm not saying I can be a pro scout. I am saying I can spot a player whose talent at the College level can project well in the NFL, but yes that is only a small percentage of what is important. I've been watching High School, College, and NFL football for 25 years and at an obsessive level. I can spot a guy that has a chance to play at the next level. Now I will never be able to see their football acumen, if they fit a particular system, if their techniques are polished, if they are coachable, and how disciplined they are in practice. Football acumen, Practice Discipline and effectively seeking and incorporating feedback from coaches being far more important than how high you can jump from a stand still. So a draftnik can never truly scout, that doesn't mean that they can't pick prospects in a draft with a similar accuracy. Maybing staring at coaches tape of the way a person's foot is positioned doesn't help as much to determine if a top prospect can play the game as the scouting world would have one believe. They need to justify their position. They have a pretty sweet gig. The success rate by the scouting world was found in a study to be 52%. I am very confident I can pick first round draft picks for the Bills at a higher rate of 52%. Not to mention the Bills hit rate for 1st rounders is closer to 25%. My point is that many die hard draftniks do have the tools to create a view of the prospect that is much more complete than the article gives them credit. They can sift through the talent of the first round prospects where there is an enormous amount of video, interviews, and some coaches feedback. There are less dark areas in the top prospects. Now when it comes to the 3rd-7th and UDFA prospects thats where there is a dearth of information and a draftnik is extremely unlikely to have an intelligent insight on the prospects, but they can have fun with their hobby. Edited February 28, 2012 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Dude! I most definitely watched McKelvin play in college. It wasn't an all-star game either. Troy played at FSU when leodis was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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