Dr. Trooth Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) What is a "franchise QB", Where do they come from, and how do you measure whether or not they are a franchise QB? Are they all 1st rounders, top ten picks? or can they be Arena League/Canadian League dropouts? Some would gauge a franchise QB by the number of "W"s, some by their QB rating, some by the number of rings. Some facts... The last 12 Super Bowls (2000-2011) * 16 different QBs (11 active in 2011) * 7 of the 16 were not 1st round draft picks * QBs in the last 12 SB matchups ranged in QB rating from 73.9 - 109.6 Warner (3) 109.2, 101.4, 96.9 Brady (4) 86.5, 85.9, 92.6, 117.2 McNair 78.6 Dilfer 76.6 Collins 83.1 Johnson 92.9 Gannon 97.3 Delhomme 80.6 McNabb 104.7 Hasselbeck 98.2 P.Manning (2) 101.0 Grossman 73.9 Rodgers 101.2 Roethlisberger (3) 98.6, 80.1, 97.0 Brees 109.6 E.Manning 73.9 * 6 of 12 winning QBs in the past 12 SBs were non first rounders. * 12 QBs in 2012 playoffs, 5 were not 1st round picks * 4 teams left in the playoffs in 2012, only 1 was not a first rd. pick * 32 QBs have been drafted in the 1st rd. since the 2000 NFL draft. 24 have not played in a SB. * 15 of 32 QBs drafted in 1st rd. since 2000 started at least 1 game in 2012 * 19 QBs were drafted in the top ten since 2000, only 2 have started in a SB, 2 are out of the league, 5 are backups, and 6 do not play for the team that drafted them. So, what do these numbers mean? I ain't got a frickin clue. And, 4 of the 1st round picks that started in a SB since 2000 had worse QB ratings than Fitz, and 2 of them were the winning QB. I think it has a lot to do with defense. Do Dilfer & Roethlisberger win without their defenses? Same for Brad Jouhnson, Brady, and Eli Manning. QBs that can put the entire team on their shoulders are rare. And even then, they need luck drawing the right matchup in the playoffs and SuperBowl and their defenses playing better than they normally do? Edited January 17, 2012 by Dr. Trooth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronc24 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What is a "franchise QB", Where do they come from, and how do you measure whether or not they are a franchise QB? Are they all 1st rounders, top ten picks? or can they be Arena League/Canadian League dropouts? Some would gauge a franchise QB by the number of "W"s, some by their QB rating, some by the number of rings. Some facts... The last 12 Super Bowls (2000-2011) * 16 different QBs (11 active in 2011) * 7 of the 16 were not 1st round draft picks * QBs in the last 12 SB matchups ranged in QB rating from 73.9 - 109.6 Warner (3) 109.2, 101.4, 96.9 Brady (4) 86.5, 85.9, 92.6, 117.2 McNair 78.6 Dilfer 76.6 Collins 83.1 Johnson 92.9 Gannon 97.3 Delhomme 80.6 McNabb 104.7 Hasselbeck 98.2 P.Manning (2) 101.0 Grossman 73.9 Rodgers 101.2 Roethlisberger (3) 98.6, 80.1, 97.0 Brees 109.6 E.Manning 73.9 * 6 of 12 winning QBs in the past 12 SBs were non first rounders. * 12 QBs in 2012 playoffs, 5 were not 1st round picks * 4 teams left in the playoffs in 2012, only 1 was not a first rd. pick * 32 QBs have been drafted in the 1st rd. since the 2000 NFL draft. 24 have not played in a SB. * 15 of 32 QBs drafted in 1st rd. since 2000 started at least 1 game in 2012 * 19 QBs were drafted in the top ten since 2000, only 2 have started in a SB, 2 are out of the league, 5 are backups, and 6 do not play for the team that drafted them. So, what do these numbers mean? I ain't got a frickin clue. And, 4 of the 1st round picks that started in a SB since 2000 had worse QB ratings than Fitz, and 2 of them were the winning QB. I think it has a lot to do with defense. Do Dilfer & Roethlisberger win without their defenses? Same for Brad Jouhnson, Brady, and Eli Manning. QBs that can put the entire team on their shoulders are rare. And even then, they need luck drawing the right matchup in the playoffs and SuperBowl and their defenses playing better than they normally do? Not sure how to answer your question, but I am guessing one requirement is accurately throwing longer than 20 yards on a consistent basis. I don't see Fitz doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cincinnati Kid Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 People need to understand that a ball does not have to travel 20 yards in the air to have a 20+ yard play. If we had a decent receiver opposite Stevie that could make a play with the ball like Nicks and Cruz do for Eli then we wouldn't have to worry so much about going "deep" to our 3rd string QB. To the OP: Love this thread and the Numbers you put together. I don't know what all that means either. Actually, I think it means that QBs get too much credit for Wins and too much Blame for Losses. Its a team game. Not a "1+10 other dudes" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) Very good question. It's a hard question to answer when you're trying to define it. But it's an easy question at the same time, because if you have one you know it, if you don't you know it too. Edited January 17, 2012 by Triple Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Franchise QB is a guy you can build your team around. Basically someone you expect to be a permanent fixture for the foreseeable future. A guy who year in year out is going to be your guy and your not shopping for his replacement in the offseason. Although half this board has decided to redefine the term to mean future hall of famer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronc24 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's a future hall of famer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It's a guy who you expect to lead a touchdown scoring drive, every time he steps on the field. It's a guy whom you are shocked to hear has had a bad game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It means fitz will lead us to a super bowl!!! ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Nice work by the OP. I like his conclusion as well. I'd take an Eli Manning over a Peyton Manning if I had the Gmen's D and not the Indy D. Tough D wins the the day. Rodgers and Brees are heading home after getting a faceful of good defenses. I wouldn't be surprised if Brady joins them next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) What is a "franchise QB", Where do they come from, and how do you measure whether or not they are a franchise QB? Are they all 1st rounders, top ten picks? or can they be Arena League/Canadian League dropouts? Some would gauge a franchise QB by the number of "W"s, some by their QB rating, some by the number of rings. Some facts... The last 12 Super Bowls (2000-2011) * 16 different QBs (11 active in 2011) * 7 of the 16 were not 1st round draft picks * QBs in the last 12 SB matchups ranged in QB rating from 73.9 - 109.6 ... So, what do these numbers mean? I ain't got a frickin clue. And, 4 of the 1st round picks that started in a SB since 2000 had worse QB ratings than Fitz, and 2 of them were the winning QB. Well I'm going to look at it the other way. - This year, every NFC playoff team had a 1st RD QB (or if you want to split hairs over Brees call it a QB drafted in the top 32 picks.) - In 2011, the championship games were played by 3 1st round Qbs and Tom Brady. - In 2010, the championship games were played by 4 1st round QBs (Cutler ended up not playing due to injury) - In 2009, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Brett Favre. - In 2008, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Kurt Warner. - In 2007, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Tom Brady. - In 2006, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Tom Brady. This means of the last 7 years you either had a first round QB or you had a legend HOF QB in Favre/Warner/Brady. At least 3 of 4 for seven straight years. My guess is it's easier to find a first round QB than it is to find Brady/Favre/Warner. Those guys are one in a million. In history, 47% of QBs drafted in the first round have started a playoff game. 24% of QBs not drafted in the first round have started a playoff game. Really the question needs to be whether a 50% chance of making the playoffs with a first round QB is worth it over a 25% chance with a non-first round QB. With the new CBA and minimized financial commitment, it seems to make an even stronger argument to do whatever it takes to give you the best chance at a QB. Obviously you can use the numbers to argue the other side. But another thing to consider - the failure rate of almost every other position in the first round is higher than that of the QB. I've posted the article in the past but now am having trouble finding the source. So don't forget, you may be avoiding that first round QB only to select other studs like Mike Williams, Erik Flowers, Willis McGahee, Donte Whitner, John McCargo, and Aaron Maybin. Edited January 17, 2012 by disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsSD Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Disco, Brees was not taken 32nd because NE lost a pick, he had been playing in the league for several years before that. He was taken 32nd because there was only 31 NFL teams, I swear that some people here have not followed football yet claim to know everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) Disco, Brees was not taken 32nd because NE lost a pick, he had been playing in the league for several years before that. He was taken 32nd because there was only 31 NFL teams, I swear that some people here have not followed football yet claim to know everything. Well, I certainly don't claim to know everything...was just putting stats together. But yeah, that's an obviously mistake. I mean, the timeline isn't even close. ug. thanks. Looking it up it appears the distinction of should have been a first round by was a second due to NE's loss of pick is owned by Dolphins DE Phillip Merling. Edited January 17, 2012 by disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsSD Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I shouldn't have said that, my new years resolution was to stop being a !@#$ on here. I still need some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I shouldn't have said that, my new years resolution was to stop being a !@#$ on here. I still need some work. I was an a-hole to Code Monkey. It happens to EVERYONE. At least you copped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disco Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I shouldn't have said that, my new years resolution was to stop being a !@#$ on here. I still need some work. haha, nah that was well deserved. I missed the draft year by seven years. yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsSD Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I was an a-hole to Code Monkey.It happens to EVERYONE.At least you copped. Thanks SJBF, I try to make it a point to admit my faults which are many. haha, nah that was well deserved. I missed the draft year by seven years. yuck. It was obviously a simple mistake and I overreacted. I could have handled it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 (edited) - This year, every NFC playoff team had a 1st RD QB (or if you want to split hairs over Brees call it a QB drafted in the top 32 picks.) - In 2011, the championship games were played by 3 1st round Qbs and Tom Brady. - In 2010, the championship games were played by 4 1st round QBs (Cutler ended up not playing due to injury) - In 2009, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Brett Favre. - In 2008, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Kurt Warner. - In 2007, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Tom Brady. - In 2006, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Tom Brady. good stuff. Interestingly too is that in 2005, the QBs in the championship games were Jake Plummer (2nd round), Jake Delhomme (undrafted), Matt Hasselbeck (6th round), and Big Ben. Only Big Ben was a first rounder. And yes Big Ben's team did win, but it wasn't because of him, it was in spite of him. His D and a long run by Willie Parker and a WR pass from Randel El to Hiney Ward and the refs were the difference in that game. And Jeremy Stevens dropping 4 passes for the Seahawks. I was at that game. I'll never forget it. Tom Brady was there too, but he did the coin flip. Edited January 17, 2012 by reddogblitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Nice work by the OP. I like his conclusion as well. I'd take an Eli Manning over a Peyton Manning if I had the Gmen's D and not the Indy D. Tough D wins the the day. Rodgers and Brees are heading home after getting a faceful of good defenses. I wouldn't be surprised if Brady joins them next week. Drew Brees puting up 32 points and scoring 15 points in the final 4 minutes is "getting a faceful of good D"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It means fitz will lead us to a super bowl!!! ....... it's means you put guys around him, more than one and if you could construct a defense that doesn't give up 21 or 28 points in the first QUARTER that might help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSpeed Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well I'm going to look at it the other way. - This year, every NFC playoff team had a 1st RD QB (or if you want to split hairs over Brees call it a QB drafted in the top 32 picks.) - In 2011, the championship games were played by 3 1st round Qbs and Tom Brady. - In 2010, the championship games were played by 4 1st round QBs (Cutler ended up not playing due to injury) - In 2009, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Brett Favre. - In 2008, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Kurt Warner. - In 2007, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Tom Brady. - In 2006, the championship games were played by 3 1st round QBs and Tom Brady. This means of the last 7 years you either had a first round QB or you had a legend HOF QB in Favre/Warner/Brady. At least 3 of 4 for seven straight years. My guess is it's easier to find a first round QB than it is to find Brady/Favre/Warner. Those guys are one in a million. In history, 47% of QBs drafted in the first round have started a playoff game. 24% of QBs not drafted in the first round have started a playoff game. Really the question needs to be whether a 50% chance of making the playoffs with a first round QB is worth it over a 25% chance with a non-first round QB. With the new CBA and minimized financial commitment, it seems to make an even stronger argument to do whatever it takes to give you the best chance at a QB. Obviously you can use the numbers to argue the other side. But another thing to consider - the failure rate of almost every other position in the first round is higher than that of the QB. I've posted the article in the past but now am having trouble finding the source. So don't forget, you may be avoiding that first round QB only to select other studs like Mike Williams, Erik Flowers, Willis McGahee, Donte Whitner, John McCargo, and Aaron Maybin. This also makes the point that you should always draft a QB in the later rounds in the hopes that you will find a Favre/Warner/Brady. Ya know, you can't win the lotto if you don't play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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