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early betting line vs.


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As I'm sure you know, sandyclam, the point spread is only the number at which Vegas thinks they can get an equal amount of action on BOTH sides of the bet. It's not a predictor of the final outcome.

 

Not necessarily true. For a lot of games, that's the case, games where they might not have a great feel for what's going to happen.

 

Take this week for example. Right now Miami +3 is getting 80% of the action. If they have a good feeling about Cleveland -3, they'll leave the line there and in essence get +400 (4/1 odds) on Cleveland -3. I'd take those odds as well. Even worse, right now SD is getting 99% of the action -14.5 against KC.

 

The line only moves if they think a game could go either way.

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Pretty fair point spread if you ask me. This is one of those games that I wouldn't bet on there is just too much unknown. In fact I felt the same way about last weeks game. The only game I would have bet this season was the Chiefs game other than that I would stay the hell away from this game betting wise.

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When it looks too good to be true......

 

There has to be a reason Vegas is setting this line so low. Look at the numbers.

 

Buffalo averages 39.5 PPG through 2 games, New England 36.5 (76 total)

Buffalo allows 21 PPG and New England 22.5 both against offenses that were hurting and inferior

New England is #1 in the NFL in passing yards, Bills are #7

Bills are #1 in the NFL in rushing yard, New England is #15

New England is in the bottom half of the league in rush yards allowed (going against #1 rushing team)

Bills are middle of the pack in pass yards allowed (going against #1 passing team)

 

This screams too good to be true...

 

Football is such a weird sport. Anytime something lines up all the way on one side it usually ends up going the other way.

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Not necessarily true. For a lot of games, that's the case, games where they might not have a great feel for what's going to happen.

 

Take this week for example. Right now Miami +3 is getting 80% of the action. If they have a good feeling about Cleveland -3, they'll leave the line there and in essence get +400 (4/1 odds) on Cleveland -3. I'd take those odds as well. Even worse, right now SD is getting 99% of the action -14.5 against KC.

 

The line only moves if they think a game could go either way.

Not true. Bookies would rather have 50/50 spreads on betting than risk losing big by putting a line out there that is encouraging 80% betting on one side. The MIA/CLE line has already dropped to 2.5.

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When it looks too good to be true......

 

There has to be a reason Vegas is setting this line so low. Look at the numbers.

 

Buffalo averages 39.5 PPG through 2 games, New England 36.5 (76 total)

Buffalo allows 21 PPG and New England 22.5 both against offenses that were hurting and inferior

New England is #1 in the NFL in passing yards, Bills are #7

Bills are #1 in the NFL in rushing yard, New England is #15

New England is in the bottom half of the league in rush yards allowed (going against #1 rushing team)

Bills are middle of the pack in pass yards allowed (going against #1 passing team)

 

This screams too good to be true...

 

"through 2 games" is the key

 

what, you think they should have set the line the 60s or something?

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Every time these threads come up people mistakenly believe that "% of bets on one side" = "$ on that side".

 

They're not the same thing. Not even close.

When I use % I'm totally referring to money; don't know about others on this thread. The money needs to be equal for the bookies to maximize profits.

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When I use % I'm totally referring to money; don't know about others on this thread. The money needs to be equal for the bookies to maximize profits.

This is exactly what I used to think as well...but after reading Chad Millamns book and his blog..I have to agree ith jwolf. The books will take risks on certain games..especially if the majority of the money is coming in from the squares(ie me and my ilk). Now when you see the lines move early..it the sharps hammering it.Squares don't bet till Friday at the earliest, but sharps pound lines they think are off on Sunday night and Monday morning.

 

But if most of the money is coming in on teams in increments less than say $1000(squares)...the book may be willing to risk it if the sharps on the other side.

 

Doesn't happen all the time..but it does happen.

Edited by plenzmd1
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This is exactly what I used to think as well...but after reading Chad Millamns book and his blog..I have to agree ith jwolf. The books will take risks on certain games..especially if the majority of the money is coming in from the squares(ie me and my ilk). Now when you see the lines move early..it the sharps hammering it.Squares don't bet till Friday at the earliest, but sharps pound lines they think are off on Sunday night and Monday morning.

 

But if most of the money is coming in on teams in increments less than say $1000(squares)...the book may be willing to risk it if the sharps on the other side.

 

Doesn't happen all the time..but it does happen.

Makes sense in those situations.

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My Brother in Law is in Vegas right now actually, but leaves on Sat. If he bets the over and wins, anyone know how to collect that? Can you mail it back?

 

He has to keep the ticket until he's back in Vegas the next time. That situation comes up a lot with weekend tourists during the NFL season, and the casinos aren't going to mail you money.

 

If it's a bet that he really cares about, he could check http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ to see if certain casinos have better lines. For example, it appears that the Mirage has 52 right now while most other casinos have 53 on the board.

 

If he's going to bet the over, he should probably do it asap. The number will prob creep to 53.5/54 if not more by kickoff.

 

Also, the under will probably win, by a lot.

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When I use % I'm totally referring to money; don't know about others on this thread. The money needs to be equal for the bookies to maximize profits.

I run a sports service, it's grown a bit the last year so I thought to chime in on the debate. Oddsmakers do take sides on games to maximize profit. Happens all the time. Sometimes a disproportionate amount of wagers to one side will result in no movement. Certainly that is not a 100% indicator that they decided to side with the team getting the least action, but it can be an indicator. Sometimes oddsmakers simply move a number .5 to 1 point with no action to justify the movement, they just want people to perceive that syndicates, big players, etc are moving the number. They know people over analyze these data trends, citing "sharp" money. Splitting action is how they survive, picking sides is how they thrive.

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I run a sports service, it's grown a bit the last year so I thought to chime in on the debate. Oddsmakers do take sides on games to maximize profit. Happens all the time. Sometimes a disproportionate amount of wagers to one side will result in no movement. Certainly that is not a 100% indicator that they decided to side with the team getting the least action, but it can be an indicator. Sometimes oddsmakers simply move a number .5 to 1 point with no action to justify the movement, they just want people to perceive that syndicates, big players, etc are moving the number. They know people over analyze these data trends, citing "sharp" money. Splitting action is how they survive, picking sides is how they thrive.

Interesting. Since none of us know where the money is going, though, it really comes down to being able to analyze the spread immediately (i.e., Sunday night/Monday morning) and then hitting it. You can't worry about where the money is going and have to rely on your own "information."

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I run a sports service, it's grown a bit the last year so I thought to chime in on the debate. Oddsmakers do take sides on games to maximize profit. Happens all the time. Sometimes a disproportionate amount of wagers to one side will result in no movement. Certainly that is not a 100% indicator that they decided to side with the team getting the least action, but it can be an indicator. Sometimes oddsmakers simply move a number .5 to 1 point with no action to justify the movement, they just want people to perceive that syndicates, big players, etc are moving the number. They know people over analyze these data trends, citing "sharp" money. Splitting action is how they survive, picking sides is how they thrive.

Interesting Kzoo..thx for the post. So all these sites tracking money, where the bets are made,etc, etc..what do you think of them? I am a small time bettor so do not subscribe to them..but be interested to hear your take on them

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