cage Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) In light of discussion on this board praising our drafting success in later rounds (Terrence McGee, Kyle Williams, Stevie Johnson, Demetrius Bell,...) and UDFA (Fred Jackson, George Wilson, Donald Jones, David Nelson,...) and lack of success in earlier rounds (too many to list), I'm wondering about a new draft strategy?? --Trade back out of rounds 1-3 entirely to stockpile overwhelming number of picks in rounds 4-7 --If we incrementally traded back, we should end up with 20+ picks in those later rounds each year --Picks in rounds 4-7 are signed easily at low cost --Those who are successful, stay on and will get paid based on success in the NFL --Those who don't,... well what do you expect from a 6th round pick? We would never have another Aaron Maybin, JP Losman or Mike Williams to talk about. If you have 20+ picks you're bound to hit on 3-5 of them, which is better than our draft success of late, if you go back and check the last decade. Have at it.... Edited August 18, 2011 by cage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingfish Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 1) Only so many can make the roster so you'd end up cutting the vast majority of the picks. 2) There wouldn't be enough reps in camp to go around to properly evaluate these players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalopdc Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 True, but you also probably will never have the caliber of players like O.J Simpson (the Player), Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith, or Eric Wood available in those later rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBaumer Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) How about actually drafting a future franchise QB in Round one and 6 offensive linemen......this may be the only way to fix this offense once and for all. You either have incredible depth at the line which would be a great problem to have or you trade one or two that step up for other needs.... Edited August 18, 2011 by BuffaloBaumer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juice_32 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 True, but you also probably will never have the caliber of players like O.J Simpson (the Player), Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith, or Eric Wood available in those later rounds. one of these things is not like the other... i mean, wood is solid, but maybe throw thurman in there instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I hate the Bills ! Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I 'd love to see Buffalo Draft a Qb 1st next year and then 4 OT and then 2 TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) 1) Only so many can make the roster so you'd end up cutting the vast majority of the picks. 2) There wouldn't be enough reps in camp to go around to properly evaluate these players. The goal is for 3-5 to stick each year, its the power of large numbers. Here's our Draft History Look at our first 3 rounds this whole decade, almost no success. Look at 2008 our hit rate for starters in rounds 1-3 is 33% (McKelvin), while hit rate in 4-7 is 29% (Johnson, Bell). If we had 3x the picks in those later rounds, we might have 5 starters out of that draft rather than 3?? As far as not enough reps, we manage to evaluate the later rounds and UDFA now. We have a pretty strong hit rate on UDFA, who come in expecting the least amount of reps, but we manage to figure out that Fred Jackson was a keeper... Edited August 18, 2011 by cage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Show but the Mike Ditka approach and do the opposite? Trade away all our draft picks each year for the #1 overall pick and end up with Luck this coming draft and then whoever the next guy will be the next season. Prolly a stud LT. Personally I like the strenght in numbers thing. But you might have to wait until draft day to figure it out. What if were picking 8-15th and a guy like Dareus Orakpo, Willis, Fairly happens to drop that far. Then you miss out on a stud that you could have had. But I'd trade ur 2nd and 3rd for like 5-6 4ths maybe. And maybe package your 5-7s to try and get one more 4th. You'd end up with a great first round pick and then 4-5 4th rounders. It's very madden like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaPolian8693 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Bills drafted well this year. In most years past, however, if they would have just made their top few picks according to what the TV analysts had said they should do, they would have been much better off and just watching NFL network would have been a much better strategy for them. But like I said, this year was solid and hopefully the start of a new drafting era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 In light of discussion on this board praising our drafting success in later rounds (Terrence McGee, Kyle Williams, Stevie Johnson, Demetrius Bell,...) and UDFA (Fred Jackson, George Wilson, Donald Jones, David Nelson,...) and lack of success in earlier rounds (too many to list), I'm wondering about a new draft strategy?? --Trade back out of rounds 1-3 entirely to stockpile overwhelming number of picks in rounds 4-7 --If we incrementally traded back, we should end up with 20+ picks in those later rounds each year --Picks in rounds 4-7 are signed easily at low cost --Those who are successful, stay on and will get paid based on success in the NFL --Those who don't,... well what do you expect from a 6th round pick? We would never have another Aaron Maybin, JP Losman or Mike Williams to talk about. If you have 20+ picks you're bound to hit on 3-5 of them, which is better than our draft success of late, if you go back and check the last decade. Have at it.... What you don't get is ...its not about numbers! The Bills could draft all 224 players out there and bring them all into camp and still not figure out which are the best. Its about evaluating college talent before they hit the NFL level, this franchise has shown they haven't been able to do that since Bill Polian- John Butler. This is the entire reason as to why Bill Polian is so successful as Gm / president, same with Ozzie Newsome of the Ravens. The Buffalo Bills had 3 of the very best talent evaluators in the NFL and fired them all. Bill Polian- John Butler- AJ Smith In Bills Polians case he should have just sat back and let the man run his org like the Colts owner is doing, instead he has to have his nose in everything. With John Butler he should have paid him top dollar and hired a capoligist to help him. Ralph Wilson's famous words to Butler after he didn't immediately accept Wilson's offer of a new contract "If I can't hire you, I'll fire you! The season wasn't even over when Wilson did this. This owner keeps cutting his own throat to save a buck..plus he is noted for a very cantankerous demeanor Think about how different this franchise would have been the last 15 yearsif the Bills had retained any or all 3 of those men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 What you don't get is ...its not about numbers! The Bills could draft all 224 players out there and bring them all into camp and still not figure out which are the best. <blah blah blah> Think about how different this franchise would have been the last 15 yearsif the Bills had retained any or all 3 of those men. Believe it or not, Harvey, some of us are actually pretty pleased with the couple of guys (Nix, Gailey) here now and the direction they're taking the team. Crying over the spilled milk of the past 11 seasons won't do you or anyone else any good. Either get busy living, or get busy dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 1) Only so many can make the roster so you'd end up cutting the vast majority of the picks. 2) There wouldn't be enough reps in camp to go around to properly evaluate these players. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'll take Marcel Dareus over wiilliam + Sheppard + searcy every day of the week. We just need to evaluate talent better an I think we're on the right track. I think this years draft will eventually yield 5 starters (dareus, Williams, Sheppard, searcy and Hairston). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Show but the Mike Ditka approach and do the opposite? Trade away all our draft picks each year for the #1 overall pick and end up with Luck this coming draft and then whoever the next guy will be the next season. Prolly a stud LT. Personally I like the strenght in numbers thing. But you might have to wait until draft day to figure it out. What if were picking 8-15th and a guy like Dareus Orakpo, Willis, Fairly happens to drop that far. Then you miss out on a stud that you could have had. But I'd trade ur 2nd and 3rd for like 5-6 4ths maybe. And maybe package your 5-7s to try and get one more 4th. You'd end up with a great first round pick and then 4-5 4th rounders. It's very madden like. Absolutely,... the strategy could work as a guideline and the decision to trade back is made while on the clock. That's when you'll get the best offer anyhow What you don't get is ...its not about numbers! The Bills could draft all 224 players out there and bring them all into camp and still not figure out which are the best. Its about evaluating college talent before they hit the NFL level, this franchise has shown they haven't been able to do that since Bill Polian- John Butler. This is the entire reason as to why Bill Polian is so successful as Gm / president, same with Ozzie Newsome of the Ravens. The Buffalo Bills had 3 of the very best talent evaluators in the NFL and fired them all. Bill Polian- John Butler- AJ Smith In Bills Polians case he should have just sat back and let the man run his org like the Colts owner is doing, instead he has to have his nose in everything. With John Butler he should have paid him top dollar and hired a capoligist to help him. Ralph Wilson's famous words to Butler after he didn't immediately accept Wilson's offer of a new contract "If I can't hire you, I'll fire you! The season wasn't even over when Wilson did this. This owner keeps cutting his own throat to save a buck..plus he is noted for a very cantankerous demeanor Think about how different this franchise would have been the last 15 yearsif the Bills had retained any or all 3 of those men. All great points as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Bills drafted well this year. In most years past, however, if they would have just made their top few picks according to what the TV analysts had said they should do, they would have been much better off and just watching NFL network would have been a much better strategy for them. But like I said, this year was solid and hopefully the start of a new drafting era. Is this not pretty much what Cincinnati was doing a couple of years ago, didn't they fire all these scouts or something? I forget the exact story but how'd that work for them? To the overwhelmingly negative Harvey, why do you bother? Being a Bills fan just makes you obviously unhappy. You might feel better if you gave it up. Really, I hate to think of anyone being so unhappy with a team and a game. It is just a game. I feel you but man I have never read anything by you on here that wasn't like what you wrote above. Just move on and feel better. sincerely you fellow Bills brethren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'll take Marcel Dareus over wiilliam + Sheppard + searcy every day of the week. We just need to evaluate talent better an I think we're on the right track. I think this years draft will eventually yield 5 starters (dareus, Williams, Sheppard, searcy and Hairston). I think its way premature to think about this approach based on this year's draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 How about actually drafting a future franchise QB in Round one and 6 offensive linemen......this may be the only way to fix this offense once and for all. You either have incredible depth at the line which would be a great problem to have or you trade one or two that step up for other needs.... I'm dead certain they will...just as soon as a genuine franchise QB is available at their slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm dead certain they will...just as soon as a genuine franchise QB is available at their slot. I'll take Bill from NYC and "Ryan Mallett was there for the taking" for $2000, Alex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 In light of discussion on this board praising our drafting success in later rounds (Terrence McGee, Kyle Williams, Stevie Johnson, Demetrius Bell,...) and UDFA (Fred Jackson, George Wilson, Donald Jones, David Nelson,...) and lack of success in earlier rounds (too many to list), I'm wondering about a new draft strategy?? --Trade back out of rounds 1-3 entirely to stockpile overwhelming number of picks in rounds 4-7 --If we incrementally traded back, we should end up with 20+ picks in those later rounds each year --Picks in rounds 4-7 are signed easily at low cost --Those who are successful, stay on and will get paid based on success in the NFL --Those who don't,... well what do you expect from a 6th round pick? We would never have another Aaron Maybin, JP Losman or Mike Williams to talk about. If you have 20+ picks you're bound to hit on 3-5 of them, which is better than our draft success of late, if you go back and check the last decade. Have at it.... The problem with our drafts has to do with one simple concept that no amount of discussion can fix. You need to pick and develop the right players. Your talking about drafting primarily based on odds manipulation, but again, you have to pick the right guys and also develop them. Our player development the past decade has been as poor as our drafts, but no one ever seems to bring that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) The problem with our drafts has to do with one simple concept that no amount of discussion can fix. You need to pick and develop the right players. Your talking about drafting primarily based on odds manipulation, but again, you have to pick the right guys and also develop them. Our player development the past decade has been as poor as our drafts, but no one ever seems to bring that up. hmmm,... I agree with a lot of what you're saying. Also, your point on odds manipulation is correct. We'll see what happens with Aaron Maybin (Jets) and James Hardy (Ravens), but Bill's castoffs don't have a big track record of success. That's why it doesn't get discussed much. There's not a bunch of Darryl Lamonicas running around out there helping other teams to the playoffs/SB... I have to think about this a bit, but I'm having trouble coming up with much of any examples of players that failed on team #1, who then became stars on team #2?? Any help out there?? If that's the case, then the odds strategy may have even more merit? Edited August 18, 2011 by cage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 hmmm,... I agree with a lot of what you're saying. Also, your point on odds manipulation is correct. We'll see what happens with Aaron Maybin (Jets) and James Hardy (Ravens), but Bill's castoffs don't have a big track record of success. That's why it doesn't get discussed much. There's not a bunch of Darryl Lamonicas running around out there helping other teams to the playoffs/SB... I have to think about this a bit, but I'm having trouble coming up with much of any examples of players that failed on team #1, who then became stars on team #2?? Any help out there?? If that's the case, then the odds strategy may have even more merit? Young players have a narrow window of opportunity in terms of health, strength, and above all ATTITUDE towards the business of football. If a players first 4 years are f***ed due to multiple player,coaching and scheme turnovers, they are far less likely to develop later. It's like a child's development. The early development is key to where their initial attitudes toward adversity comes from. I firmly believe that many players enter the league that simply go to the wrong teams. Timing and the players next to you mean so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'll take Bill from NYC and "Ryan Mallett was there for the taking" for $2000, Alex... I think the round he was taken and the team who took him are good indications of why the other 31 teams did not take him higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Believe it or not, Harvey, some of us are actually pretty pleased with the couple of guys (Nix, Gailey) here now and the direction they're taking the team. Crying over the spilled milk of the past 11 seasons won't do you or anyone else any good. Either get busy living, or get busy dying. I'm happy for you that "you" are pleased with Nix & Gailey and the direction they are taking the team. However, I'm not! They screwed the pooch is so many areas in their first year. Not one player started from last years draft class and we still need to see if any of those players will actually ever make an impact. Besides Marcel Darius fell into their laps, and Williams we still have to see what this years draft class offers. 2 years, 2 drafts, 2 free agency periods and still no RT, still no depth on that O line. no decent free agents, minimal impact from any of the players drafted so far. What i posted earlier wasn't crying about the last 11 seasons, it was merely stating the reason as to why this franchise has been so inept, and from what I've seen so far from the good ole boy team things really haven't gotten better. The team did go 4-12 last year, which was worse then Jauron. This staff still has a bunch to prove to some of us. Get busy waking up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm happy for you that "you" are pleased with Nix & Gailey and the direction they are taking the team. However, I'm not! They screwed the pooch is so many areas in their first year. Not one player started from last years draft class and we still need to see if any of those players will actually ever make an impact. Besides Marcel Darius fell into their laps, and Williams we still have to see what this years draft class offers. 2 years, 2 drafts, 2 free agency periods and still no RT, still no depth on that O line. no decent free agents, minimal impact from any of the players drafted so far. What i posted earlier wasn't crying about the last 11 seasons, it was merely stating the reason as to why this franchise has been so inept, and from what I've seen so far from the good ole boy team things really haven't gotten better. The team did go 4-12 last year, which was worse then Jauron. This staff still has a bunch to prove to some of us. Get busy waking up! I honestly feel empathy for someone with a thought process like this, so I'll just end our conversation. Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I honestly feel empathy for someone with a thought process like this, so I'll just end our conversation. Go Bills! Again, I'm happy for you that "you" feel empathy. jauron was horrible, and yet 7-9 still beats 4-12 I for one want to see some actual production on the field from the players this staff drafted, plus I'd like to see that production translate into wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 1) Only so many can make the roster so you'd end up cutting the vast majority of the picks. 2) There wouldn't be enough reps in camp to go around to properly evaluate these players. Great, short reply. Nice nutshell. The only thing I could add to this discussion is that the Patsies* recently spent several years trading back and stockpiling draft picks but are now showing signs that they will be aggressive in packaging picks to move up during the draft. This is analogous to their early move to a predominant 3-4 scheme and their recent move (counter-trending) towards hybrid and 4-3 looks. Belichick is a pretty interesting operator. I hate them and they are far from infallible… their mistakes are right there for everyone to see. But they're a fascinating organization to watch, IMO. Bottom line though, while there are more than one short term and long term philosophies of drafting, the thing that matters the most is to accurately evaluate talent and understand value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 1) Only so many can make the roster so you'd end up cutting the vast majority of the picks. 2) There wouldn't be enough reps in camp to go around to properly evaluate these players. Could you imagine the TBD roar after one of those players got cut and had success on another team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 (edited) The problem with our drafts has to do with one simple concept that no amount of discussion can fix. You need to pick and develop the right players. Your talking about drafting primarily based on odds manipulation, but again, you have to pick the right guys and also develop them. Our player development the past decade has been as poor as our drafts, but no one ever seems to bring that up. Excellent point ! This goes hand in hand with good coaching as Its not only finding great players its also developing them properly. Trent Edwards was from Stanford where he played in a west coast offense, he came to Buffalo and was trained in that crappy Mike Martz system. Not even by Martz, but by his OC at St Louis who never even called the plays, Martz did. Steve Fairchild was learning the system under Martz when he was hired away by Buffalo. Fairchild left to take a college HCing job after one year so Jauron promoted the QB coach. He then went on to fire Schonert 2 weeks before the season starts and promotes the QB coach again.Talk about a cluster fluck way to develop a QB. You guys know that Martz system, it got Kurt Warner injured, Mark Bolger injured and now is getting Jay Cutler killed. Another incident was with Jason Peters. 25 year veteran O line coach Jim McNally finds and develops Peters from a tight end free agent walk on into a pro bowl left tackle. That line with Peters-Dockery-Butler-Walker was pretty darn good, the only problem was the Bills couldn't find a center worth a darn so that O line never really gained any continuity. Melvin Fowler was the weak link, then Duke Preston the following year. McNally retires and Jauron replaces him with an assistant instead of hiring another coach with experience. The man who replaced McNally eventually became a decent line coach, but it took a few years. In the mean time the line play went down hill, protections went bad. That was the year the Bills went down to Arizona and Edwards suffered a severe concussion. Knowing how lame that staff was under Jauron I'll wager they let Edwards play again to soon. When you hire a top head coach like the Bills did with Chuck Knox he knew how to draft the proper players, and how to properly develop them. Guard Jim Richter was a #1 pick in 1980 and spent 3 years on the bench and played special teams until he was ready. He played 16 seasons in the NFL at guard. I don't see how RW can stand paying players like Maybin and McCargo and get nothing in return,and watch his teams fail year after year and let it continue for so long...or maybe that's just me Anyway, now we have to wait another year or two to see if Nix really knows what he is doing concerning his drafted players, and we also need to see if Gailey's staff can develop them properly . Edited August 19, 2011 by Harvey lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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