Coach Tuesday Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2011/sackseer-lets-try-again Interesting that the top four on their list have been in for OBD interviews... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2011/sackseer-lets-try-again Interesting that the top four on their list have been in for OBD interviews... Don't get me wrong, I love FO and the fact that they apply "intelligence" to their stats, and I do think that Miller will be a great player, but this is--after all--the same system that proclaimed Jerry Hughes as the next great NFL pass rusher last year. That said, thanks for posting. It's a very good read and does lend some new perspective as to how all the #s could translate to the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Right, they missed badly with Hughes. Maybe he turns it around, maybe he doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACor58 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Miller has proven it for four years in college that he is a good player and that it all I need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Check out this projection. This was before they actually coined it SackSEER. Take a look at who's number 1....hahahahahahhahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Don't get me wrong, I love FO and the fact that they apply "intelligence" to their stats, and I do think that Miller will be a great player, but this is--after all--the same system that proclaimed Jerry Hughes as the next great NFL pass rusher last year. Same for Daniel Te'o-Nesheim (who? Exactly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Check out this projection. This was before they actually coined it SackSEER. Take a look at who's number 1....hahahahahahhahahaha Wow!!! And they brag about projecting Ayers as a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 http://www.footballo...-lets-try-again Interesting that the top four on their list have been in for OBD interviews... Thanks for posting. The comments by Sackseer and other stats junkies working on similar projects is fascinating. The hope of course is that with more years of data and tweaking, that they can more accurately predict the performance of these college players in the pros. Yes, they were wrong on some players and they were right on many of them as well. It'll be interesting to see what this predictive model grows into a few years from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Check out this projection. This was before they actually coined it SackSEER. Take a look at who's number 1....hahahahahahhahahaha Aaron MaybinProjection: 45.85 Sacks by Year 7 Maybe they were projecting the # of games he would be active for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Maybe they were projecting the # of games he would be active for? He probably won't reach that mark either, hahahaha.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 (edited) What I am much more concerned about are how will any of those guys help our run game? I just don't see the opposition taking many chances in the pass game to give our pressure time to get there when they can run on us for 4.8yds/rush and 35.7 times a game. Edited April 11, 2011 by PDaDdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 (edited) What I am much more concerned about are how will any of those guys help our run game? I just don't see the opposition taking many chances in the pass game to give our pressure time to get there when they can run on us for 4.8yds/rush and 35.7 times a game. As I mentioned before, teams still threw the ball against Buffalo 29.7 times per game, that's only a difference of 6 plays. Yes, the run defense is a major concern, but don't discount 2 things: (1) the team did draft 2 defensive linemen in the top 3 rounds last year who have the potential to improve, and (2) this draft has a MUCH deeper talent pool of run stuffers than pass rushers, so there's no reason to think the team can't get a great run stuffer at 34 with guys like Christian Ballard, Steven Paea, Jurrell Casey, Allen Bailey, and Marvin Austin likely to be on the board. I think that's why many are intrigued by the prospect of drafting an edge rusher at #3...but I could be mistaken. Edited April 11, 2011 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 As I mentioned before, teams still threw the ball against Buffalo 29.7 times per game, Teams have toyed with the Bills for the past few years. Anyone else feel that way? OCs just can't help themselves, they gotta throw the ball when the Bills can't stop the run. I think this has led to many close games the last 3 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) Teams have toyed with the Bills for the past few years. Anyone else feel that way? OCs just can't help themselves, they gotta throw the ball when the Bills can't stop the run. I think this has led to many close games the last 3 seasons. I do feel that Buffalo has been in more close games recently than they deserved to be in, but I guess I never considered your point...interesting. I guess I always figured that the balance in play calling was because we sucked equally against the run and the pass. I mean, when you watch this team, do they strike you as the kind of team that can stop the pass? I just keep having visions of Terrence McGee allowing 10-yard completions in front of him on 3rd and 8 and Jairus Byrd perpetually standing behind the WR waiting for an overthrow. I supposed the only way to find out would be to dedicate your efforts to fixing one part of the defense and see what happens. Edited April 12, 2011 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) As I mentioned before, teams still threw the ball against Buffalo 29.7 times per game, that's only a difference of 6 plays. Yes, the run defense is a major concern, but don't discount 2 things: (1) the team did draft 2 defensive linemen in the top 3 rounds last year who have the potential to improve, and (2) this draft has a MUCH deeper talent pool of run stuffers than pass rushers, so there's no reason to think the team can't get a great run stuffer at 34 with guys like Christian Ballard, Steven Paea, Jurrell Casey, Allen Bailey, and Marvin Austin likely to be on the board. I think that's why many are intrigued by the prospect of drafting an edge rusher at #3...but I could be mistaken. So you are saying is that we were second to last in the league in pass attempts against? Only Oakland had fewer passes attempted on them. Thanks for proving my point!!!!!! ROFLOL. This in combination with the defensive rushing stats should scream to you what our problem is. I know, or at least hope, you are smart enough to get what I am saying I just can't figure out why you are trying to diminish the importance of how often and how effectively we are run on. Teams only threw against us to keep us somewhat honest. They didn't throw against us because they had to. When we are able to stop teams from steam rolling us on the ground and we can dictate when they must pass THEN we can benefit from a pass rushing specialist who can't stop the run. Edited April 12, 2011 by PDaDdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 (edited) In fairness to their Maybin projection - they also said this about him: By far the greatest mainstream concern with Aaron Maybin is his lack of games played (26) which tends to create a "sample size" issue for him, where essentially his outstanding Sophomore season sack numbers become his "adjusted sacks/game" factor. Although there is no significant correlation between games played and success in the NFL, there is not a great historical analogue in any of my data for Maybin's relative inexperience, as the only two first round pass rushers who started less than the 30 games had poor projections notwithstanding their lack of college playing time. Still, Maybin's short college career is a legitimate concern Which is, of course, the biggest difference between Maybin and most of the top candidates this year - with the possible exception of Quinn - who scares the heck out of me. Jauron was desperate to keep his job - and decided to gamble on the biggest potential upside player he could get. Nix has repeatedly stated and demonstrated his lack of enthusiasm for 1-year wonders, and I don't think there's anything Wilson could say to him that would make him act desperately to keep his job - Nix likes his job, and he's determined to do well for the Bills and the fans - but he doesn't need the job. Edited April 12, 2011 by BobChalmers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizell Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 which is not necessarily predictive of sacks but is highly predictive of awesomeness. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Maybe they were projecting the # of games he would be active for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I'd be happy with Miller, Bowers, Quinn and even though they don't rank him, Cameron at #3. I also LOVE his info on Dontay Moch as his SLEEPER. If we got say Miller or Quinn in the 1st and Moch in the 3rd we would have our starting OLBs for our 3/4 for years. Quinn could play DE in the 4/3 also but I think Miller would still be our OLB in. 4/3. Some might say we would overload our LBs if we did this since were banki g on Merriman and Moats to be there AND healthy. So I'm a bigger fan of Bowers or Cameron as the 1st pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Give the guy credit for being so off on Maybin but still having the courage to put another "so called small" pass rusher at the number one spot again in Von Miller That is because Von Miller ISN"T Maybin.....in any way shape or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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