Kiper Mock v4.0

[Ramius]

or in other words: "Your stats dont fit my argument like my stats do, so what you're saying doesnt matter"

 

I dont like arguing stats anyways because anyone with half a brain can twist any stat to fit their argument.

 

I will say that, in the discussion at hand, 1billsfan bringing up their sophomore seasons IS relevant. Since it's the last season they could be compared on a 1:1 basis.

 

Since his sophomore season, Von Miller showed marked improvement in his game and game-changing ability.

 

What improvement has Quinn shown since his sophomore season?

[1billsfan]

Since his sophomore season, Von Miller showed marked improvement in his game and game-changing ability.

 

What improvement has Quinn shown since his sophomore season?

 

 

This argument was started when you excerpted King's flawed Quinn stat put down.

 

It's not about Quinn's truncated college career. All these guys have their things you can pick on. It just so happens that Miller is the current man-love object of the NFL "experts". I think this little dig on Quinn means that his stock is on the rise.

[Ramius]

This argument was started when you excerpted King's flawed Quinn stat put down.

 

It's not about Quinn's truncated college career. All these guys have their things you can pick on. It just so happens that Miller is the current man-love object of the NFL "experts". I think this little dig on Quinn means that his stock is on the rise.

 

Its not a flawed stat. Its raw data showing that Quinn is a 1 year wonder who piled up sacks against inferior competition, and largely struggled against the good teams he faced. Not too unlike a certain #11 pick in 2009.

[1billsfan]

Its not a flawed stat. Its raw data showing that Quinn is a 1 year wonder who piled up sacks against inferior competition, and largely struggled against the good teams he faced. Not too unlike a certain #11 pick in 2009.

 

 

Again, it was his sophmore year and he didn't play in his junior year. He dominated his sophmore year though, Miller didn't.

 

Do you really want to bring up the guy who's size and game remind us of Miller?

[John from Riverside]

Again, it was his sophmore year and he didn't play in his junior year. He dominated his sophmore year though, Miller didn't.

 

Do you really want to bring up the guy who's size and game remind us of Miller?

 

Dominated against WHO

 

Give me the player who got better every year and put a string of years together......it shows maturation.

 

 

It is unfair to Quinn in some aspects here because he didn't get to show what he could do last year.....but it is what it is

[NewEra]

Talk about irrelevant, we're projecting two unknown players. Not the very well known NFL star player Clay Matthews.

 

This belittling of Quinn's sophmore stats is ridiculous considering Miller didn't do anything his sophmore year.

 

We're trying to project who the great player will be, and by doing so you need to take into account that this was his sophmore year, not senior.

The only belittling of quinns stats, from what ive seen,are that they were against inferior competition and that he only had one good year, which happens to be something MANY fans, experts and FO's take into consideration. Does it really matter that Von Miller. Only had 3.5 sacks his sophmore year when he had 27 over the next 2? Do you really think there ONE GM that looks at Von Miller STATS and says "Uhoh, as a sophomore he only had 3.5 sacks, but Quinn had 11. Who cares if Miller was all america the next 2 years and wins the Butkus. This Quinn guy had 11 as a SOPHMORE!!!". I'm sure the year off helped him too. From a reported 4.38 to a 4.7+, looks like he was productive in his 16 months of not playing football. Btw, Andy Katzenmoyer had 12 sacks his freshman year. He must be better than both. It's sad that I have to talk down on a player I like just to try and prove a point, that will never be made due to one persons ignorance. You don't like Von Miller and never will, unless drafted by the bills and turns into an all-pro. Even then, I'm sure you will find some nonsense to spew about. "have you seen him in a suit?"

 

Dominated against WHO

 

Give me the player who got better every year and put a string of years together......it shows maturation.

 

 

It is unfair to Quinn in some aspects here because he didn't get to show what he could do last year.....but it is what it is

It isn't fair to Quinn in some respects, but who knows, if he played last year there's a chance we are talking about drafting him #34 overall. Just because someone does great as a sophomore doesn't necessarily mean his junior year would be better than his sophomore year.

[stony]

Again, it was his sophmore year and he didn't play in his junior year. He dominated his sophmore year though, Miller didn't.

 

Do you really want to bring up the guy who's size and game remind us of Miller?

 

Sorry, but horrible argument. And if you want to play the "who's size and game does he remind us of" card, remember the inflated sack stats against weak competition are eerily reminiscent of Maybin.

 

FWIW, I've heard more on Quinn being like Gholston than Miller being like Maybin.

 

The only belittling of quinns stats, from what ive seen,are that they were against inferior competition and that he only had one good year, which happens to be something MANY fans, experts and FO's take into consideration. Does it really matter that Von Miller. Only had 3.5 sacks his sophmore year when he had 27 over the next 2? Do you really think there ONE GM that looks at Von Miller STATS and says "Uhoh, as a sophomore he only had 3.5 sacks, but Quinn had 11. Who cares if Miller was all america the next 2 years and wins the Butkus. This Quinn guy had 11 as a SOPHMORE!!!". I'm sure the year off helped him too. From a reported 4.38 to a 4.7+, looks like he was productive in his 16 months of not playing football. Btw, Andy Katzenmoyer had 12 sacks his freshman year. He must be better than both. It's sad that I have to talk down on a player I like just to try and prove a point, that will never be made due to one persons ignorance. You don't like Von Miller and never will, unless drafted by the bills and turns into an all-pro. Even then, I'm sure you will find some nonsense to spew about. "have you seen him in a suit?"

 

 

It isn't fair to Quinn in some respects, but who knows, if he played last year there's a chance we are talking about drafting him #34 overall. Just because someone does great as a sophomore doesn't necessarily mean his junior year would be better than his sophomore year.

 

Perfectly articulated.

[1billsfan]

Dominated against WHO

 

Give me the player who got better every year and put a string of years together......it shows maturation.

 

 

It is unfair to Quinn in some aspects here because he didn't get to show what he could do last year.....but it is what it is

 

 

Frankly, I think the Bills need to be brave at #3 and go with the "riskier" "high reward" pick in either Quinn or Fairley. No one here knew who Von miller was after that championship game. Imagine if fans then had said the Bills should pick Von Miller over Nick Fairley the next day? They'd first say "Von who?,"then they'd say "You mean Nick Fairley is still on the board and we're not going to take him???????"...LOL

 

I think that Miller will be a good pro, but he's the "safe" pick. I just don't see him being a Clay Matthews clone (who people compare him to). Matthews plays like he's 260, Miller plays like he's 230. I also worry about a rail like Miller keeping weight on during the season, especially if it goes to 18 games.

 

By now we've all solidified who our favorites are and there's nobody that can change ours minds any longer. We can all agree on that!...LOL

Edited April 11, 2011 by 1billsfan

[John from Riverside]

Frankly, I think the Bills need to be brave at #3 and go with the "riskier" "high reward" pick in either Quinn or Fairley. No one here knew who Von miller was after that championship game. Imagine if fans then had said the Bills should pick Von Miller over Nick Fairley the next day? They'd first say "Von who?,"then they'd say "You mean Nick Fairley is still on the board and we're not going to take him???????"...LOL

 

I think that Miller will be a good pro, but he's the "safe" pick. I just don't see him being a Clay Matthews clone (who people compare him to). Matthews plays like he's 260, Miller plays like he's 230. I also worry about a rail like Miller keeping weight on during the season, especially if it goes to 18 games.

 

By now we've all solidified who our favorites are and there's nobody that can change ours minds any longer. We can all agree on that!...LOL

 

The only people talking like that are the ones that dont do their homework on college players.....

 

- Who is Von Miller? Really? You think educated fans are saying that?

- Nick Fairly might actually be a decent player.....but for us he is only good if he can play the DE spot....because we have WILLIAMS AND TROUPE

- The only reason why people compare Mathews and Von Miller is because they are of similar weight out of college and thats it.

- MILLER IS NOT MAYBIN.....there is nothing to think that he is gonna be a guy that cant keep his weight on

 

So your whole justification is that we should pick a "boom or bust player?" well hell....if we are going to do that then just go ahead and take whichever QB falls to us at 3. If we are gonna be adventurous and do the vegas gamble....then take Newton or Gabbert.

 

 

I actually have several favorites.....but Von Miller is right at the top of the list.

[NewEra]

Frankly, I think the Bills need to be brave at #3 and go with the "riskier" "high reward" pick in either Quinn or Fairley. No one here knew who Von miller was after that championship game. Imagine if fans then had said the Bills should pick Von Miller over Nick Fairley the next day? They'd first say "Von who?,"then they'd say "You mean Nick Fairley is still on the board and we're not going to take him???????"...LOL

 

I think that Miller will be a good pro, but he's the "safe" pick. I just don't see him being a Clay Matthews clone (who people compare him to). Matthews plays like he's 260, Miller plays like he's 230. I also worry about a rail like Miller keeping weight on during the season, especially if it goes to 18 games.

 

By now we've all solidified who our favorites are and there's nobody that can change ours minds any longer. We can all agree on that!...LOL

"no one here knew who Von Miller was after the championship game last year"....more of the same from the ignant one. Maybe YOU didn't know miller was. Maybe that's part of your problem. You don't know very much about college football. Some of us, who actually watch college football an study prospects during the season knew who he was during his junior year. You should watch some college football and pay attention to the season instead of just looking at YouTube and looking at height and weight. Why do you think Miller is a "safe" pick? You didn't even know who he was 3 months ago. LOL

 

The only people talking like that are the ones that dont do their homework on college players.....

 

- Who is Von Miller? Really? You think educated fans are saying that?

- Nick Fairly might actually be a decent player.....but for us he is only good if he can play the DE spot....because we have WILLIAMS AND TROUPE

- The only reason why people compare Mathews and Von Miller is because they are of similar weight out of college and thats it.

- MILLER IS NOT MAYBIN.....there is nothing to think that he is gonna be a guy that cant keep his weight on

 

So your whole justification is that we should pick a "boom or bust player?" well hell....if we are going to do that then just go ahead and take whichever QB falls to us at 3. If we are gonna be adventurous and do the vegas gamble....then take Newton or Gabbert.

 

 

I actually have several favorites.....but Von Miller is right at the top of the list.

I agree, if we're gonna take a "risk", we should be taking Newton or Gabbert.

[PDaDdy]

Since his sophomore season, Von Miller showed marked improvement in his game and game-changing ability.

 

What improvement has Quinn shown since his sophomore season?

 

Isn't that kind of the point? We all know Quinn didn't play last year. If Quinn just duplicated his

"sophomore" year I think he would be more of a consensus top OLB/DE pick for us. Something which NOBODY seems to consider is if Quinn actually IMPROVED on his number he might be considered the #1 pick over all. I think the more sensible people just throw out his missed sophomore year or perhaps project a slight increase in his stats. The haters seem to think that his junior year was a bust and he would have somehow regressed. There are also the wildly optimistic people who assume there would have been improvement in his junior year.

 

I guess it's all in your outlook or if you have an agenda supporting another candidate by ripping another.

[NewEra]

Isn't that kind of the point? We all know Quinn didn't play last year. If Quinn just duplicated his

"sophomore" year I think he would be more of a consensus top OLB/DE pick for us. Something which NOBODY seems to consider is if Quinn actually IMPROVED on his number he might be considered the #1 pick over all. I think the more sensible people just throw out his missed sophomore year or perhaps project a slight increase in his stats. The haters seem to think that his junior year was a bust and he would have somehow regressed. There are also the wildly optimistic people who assume there would have been improvement in his junior year.

 

I guess it's all in your outlook or if you have an agenda supporting another candidate by ripping another.

I wouldn't call it ripping. I'd call it pointing out the "cons" in regards to drafting him. Sure, he may have been the consensus number 1 pick. He may have been a consensus 2nd 3rd or 4th round pick. Bruce Carter and Marvin Austin were both considered possible top 10 picks before this season. Now they're considered late 1st to possibly even 5th round (Carter). We'd be rolling the dice bigtime if we drafted Quinn, more so than Miller IMO, due to the fact that he hasn't played in 16 months. That being said, I still wouldn't be upset if we drafted him. And I'm one of the people that's "ripping" him. I know I contest a lot of posts on tsw, but all in all, when it comes to our FO and who they decide to pick, chances are I won't be contesting their selection. I'd be happy with the majority of the players we are discussing, (Bowers and Tyron Smith not included).

[1billsfan]

"no one here knew who Von Miller was after the championship game last year"....more of the same from the ignant one. Maybe YOU didn't know miller was. Maybe that's part of your problem. You don't know very much about college football. Some of us, who actually watch college football an study prospects during the season knew who he was during his junior year. You should watch some college football and pay attention to the season instead of just looking at YouTube and looking at height and weight. Why do you think Miller is a "safe" pick? You didn't even know who he was 3 months ago. LOL

 

 

I agree, if we're gonna take a "risk", we should be taking Newton or Gabbert.

 

That comment is for all the guys here who's saturdays in the fall are filled with doing chores or going out somewhere and who do not have the time to blow off two weekend days during football season. That comment probably is representative of the majority of guys here. Just like we didn't know who Gabbert was before the draft guys started making their lists. I get the feeling that there's not a lot of guys here who watch a lot of college football on a regular basis.

 

BTW, I created the first Von Miller post here...LOL I heard his name mentioned on a sports radio show when Miller was still only considered a second half of the first round draft pick due to his size. The draft analyst absolutely raved about him so I asked if anyone here knew of him and how good he was and if he worthy of the #3 pick. If they draft him I will be disappointed feeling that the Bills wimped out with the solid but wimpy sized player, but I won't be crazy mad about it.

 

Let's stop with this pretend world where we all have first hand knowledge of everyone we're considering. It's stupid, we don't. And if you're someone that does, you're definitely not married or have a girlfriend.

[thebandit27]

or in other words: "Your stats dont fit my argument like my stats do, so what you're saying doesnt matter"

 

I dont like arguing stats anyways because anyone with half a brain can twist any stat to fit their argument.

 

I will say that, in the discussion at hand, 1billsfan bringing up their sophomore seasons IS relevant. Since it's the last season they could be compared on a 1:1 basis.

 

Not exactly Dank.

 

We're talking about the final college season for each player. We don't really have anything else to judge Quinn on except for his sophomore season. I don't think it would be valid to say "well, Von Miller went from 3.5 sacks as a Sophomore to 17 sacks as a Junior, so Quinn would probably have gone from 11 to 24.5", and I'm sure you wouldn't say theat either.

 

Let me state it this way: when you draft a player, you're getting him in his current state; as far as his talents have been developed up until this point. With that in mind, my opinion is that it's much more prudent to compare Quinn's final season of college football to Miller's final season of college football, since neither of them is likely to have developed their football accumen any further since then.

 

This argument was started when you excerpted King's flawed Quinn stat put down.

 

It's not about Quinn's truncated college career. All these guys have their things you can pick on. It just so happens that Miller is the current man-love object of the NFL "experts". I think this little dig on Quinn means that his stock is on the rise.

 

It's not flawed; it's simply a fact regarding Quinn's production as a sophomore. He did most of his damage against really lousy teams. If that doesn't raise a red flag for you, that's fine, but King's statement is accurate nevertheless.

[DrDawkinstein]

Not exactly Dank.

 

We're talking about the final college season for each player. We don't really have anything else to judge Quinn on except for his sophomore season. I don't think it would be valid to say "well, Von Miller went from 3.5 sacks as a Sophomore to 17 sacks as a Junior, so Quinn would probably have gone from 11 to 24.5", and I'm sure you wouldn't say theat either.

 

Let me state it this way: when you draft a player, you're getting him in his current state; as far as his talents have been developed up until this point. With that in mind, my opinion is that it's much more prudent to compare Quinn's final season of college football to Miller's final season of college football, since neither of them is likely to have developed their football accumen any further since then.

 

 

 

It's not flawed; it's simply a fact regarding Quinn's production as a sophomore. He did most of his damage against really lousy teams. If that doesn't raise a red flag for you, that's fine, but King's statement is accurate nevertheless.

 

 

Im not saying you're comparison is "wrong" when you base it on their "last season played". But comparing their sophomore seasons is not "irrelevant" either. You can do both comparisons, and if you are going to do one, the other should be discussed as well.

 

Either way, neither is going to give you the answer that allows you to predict the future with 100% accuracy. We're all just chewing fat here until the draft, and until we see them on the field. And by then, these threads will be long forgotten.

[PDaDdy]

We're talking about the final college season for each player.

 

You can't compare Quinn's 2nd season to Millers 4th. Apples and oranges. What people are saying is that by each players sophomore year....QUINN WAS BY FAR THE BEST!!! Who knows what he would have done his junior and senior year? None of us here.

 

You can speculate that a guy that got 11 sacks in his sophomore year might some how magically tank and drop down the boards OR you can speculate that it is more likely that he would have continued to produce. You could even speculate that he would have improved on those numbers.

 

To me it's much much much more realistic to predict that Quinn would have continued to produce at a high level. Weak opponents this, weak conference that. Come on. He's obviously a talented player as is Miller and chopping him down doesn't make you look good.

 

Miller supporters keep trying to make it all about pass rushing. Despite constant reminders they seem to be unaware or don't care that stopping the run is our biggest problem!

 

Ramius, on 11 April 2011 - 05:07 PM, said:

Its not a flawed stat. Its raw data showing that Quinn is a 1 year wonder who piled up sacks against inferior competition, and largely struggled against the good teams he faced. Not too unlike a certain #11 pick in 2009.

 

Again, it was his sophmore year and he didn't play in his junior year. He dominated his sophmore year though, Miller didn't.

 

Do you really want to bring up the guy who's size and game remind us of Miller?

 

I think he is intentionally trying to be a complete..... He probably feels that the comparison of Miller to Maybin because they are of similar size, position, speed and talents is unfair so he decided to make a wild statement about comparing Quinn and Maybin to piss people off.

 

I would ignore him at this point. Statements like that destroy a persons credibility and shows they bring nothing productive to the discussion.

[thebandit27]

You can't compare Quinn's 2nd season to Millers 4th. Apples and oranges. What people are saying is that by each players sophomore year....QUINN WAS BY FAR THE BEST!!! Who knows what he would have done his junior and senior year? None of us here.

 

You can speculate that a guy that got 11 sacks in his sophomore year might some how magically tank and drop down the boards OR you can speculate that it is more likely that he would have continued to produce. You could even speculate that he would have improved on those numbers.

 

To me it's much much much more realistic to predict that Quinn would have continued to produce at a high level. Weak opponents this, weak conference that. Come on. He's obviously a talented player as is Miller and chopping him down doesn't make you look good.

 

Miller supporters keep trying to make it all about pass rushing. Despite constant reminders they seem to be unaware or don't care that stopping the run is our biggest problem!

 

I think you're missing my point. I'm not trying to predict what Quinn would have done his Junior season (which, by the way, it wouldn't be "magic" for his production to drop; he's not infallible). In fact, I'm stating that it's pointless to do so. The reality is that both players have developed to the point at which they are now, and the most recent data that we have for the two players come from Quinn's sophomore year and Miller's senior year. I'm not going to postulate as to whether either player has improved their game ince the last time they played organized football, so in my opinion, the last time they did play organized football would be the best indicator of their current abilities.

 

It doesn't matter what Miller did as a sophomore, or what Quinn may have done had he played as a Junior, because Miller didn't declare draft eligible as a sophomore, and Quinn didn't play as a Junior. As a result, when a team drafts Miller, they're getting the Von Miller that played college football for 4 seasons, not the one that played for 2 seasons. Similarly, when a team drafts Quinn, they're getting the Robert Quinn that played college football for 2 seasons, not 3 or 4. They both are where they are right now.

 

Lastly, I'll once again (this has to be at least the 3rd time I'm making this point to you directly) address your run defense issue. There's more than 1 round to the draft, and this draft is incredibly deep in defensive linemen that play the run well. There's absolutely no reason to think that the team can't get an impact run defender at No. 34 overall (like Steven Paea, Jurrell Casey, Marvin Austin, Christian Ballard, etc.) who can be just as effective playing the 5-technique position. There is, however, reason to believe that the team may not be able to get a pass rusher at No. 34 who can be as effective as a guy they could get at No. 3. This is the reason that some here support drafting a pass rusher at No. 3 overall. I hope that clears things up.

 

I think he is intentionally trying to be a complete..... He probably feels that the comparison of Miller to Maybin because they are of similar size, position, speed and talents is unfair so he decided to make a wild statement about comparing Quinn and Maybin to piss people off.

 

To be fair, that's not true at all. Maybin was 227 when he left college, and showed up at the combine at 250 lbs. Miller was 237, and showed up at the combine at 246. They also don't play the same position, as Maybin was a DE in college and Miller played OLB in a 3-4 for most of his Junior season and all of his Senior season. Also, while Maybin's straight line speed was only 0.1 second slower than Miller's, Miller's speed in the 3-cone and short-shuttle are far, far better than Maybin's.

 

Lastly, I think the point Raimus was making in comparing Maybin to Quinn is that he's also a risk. I mean, both played their last season as red-shirt sophomores, both racked up sacks against bottom-feeders, and both amassed most of their stats in a minority of games. When you read that, it does sound like Maybin, doesn't it?

 

Now, I understand that the two players are completely different, but so too are Maybin and Miller.

[PDaDdy]

The reality is that both players have developed to the point at which they are now, and the most recent data that we have for the two players come from Quinn's sophomore year and Miller's senior year.

 

Please please please tell me you see the flaws in this supposed logic? You are comparing the stats of a 19 year old sophomore to a 21 year old senior and ignore the rather incredibly obvious fact that at the same age Quinn was better??? Dude, give it a rest.

 

Lastly, I'll once again (this has to be at least the 3rd time I'm making this point to you directly) address your run defense issue. There's more than 1 round to the draft, and this draft is incredibly deep in defensive linemen that play the run well.

 

So what do we squander all of the defensive talent? Lets use our biggest pick to address our biggest problem. That should be pretty easy for you to wrap your head around. There may be as many as 14 DL going in the first round. All of that "deep" talent you talk about will be exhausted by the second round and we will end up with an undersized pass rush specialist and the 15th or 16th best D lineman. Nice job. Glad you aren't GM.

 

Now, I understand that the two players are completely different, but so too are Maybin and Miller.

 

Many have stated that it may be unfair to attempt to predict Millers NFL transition based upon Maybins failures but there are some valid comparisons between the 2 and to ignore them shows bias or lack of observational skills.

 

Miller has additional qualities which I expect will make him much more successful than Maybin but that doesn't mean the other comparisons and traits are not valid. Just accept them and focus on their differences to make your point instead of ignoring their similarities.

Edited April 12, 2011 by PDaDdy

[Ramius]

 

I would ignore him at this point. Statements like that destroy a persons credibility and shows they bring nothing productive to the discussion.

 

Maybin was a 1 year wonder who racked up stats against weaker teams.

 

Quinn was a 1 year wonder who racked up stats against weaker teams.

 

Thats quite simply what the numbers say. But please, feel free to refute this statement or tell me why drawing that conclusion isn't valid.

 

or in other words: "Your stats dont fit my argument like my stats do, so what you're saying doesnt matter"

 

I dont like arguing stats anyways because anyone with half a brain can twist any stat to fit their argument.

 

I will say that, in the discussion at hand, 1billsfan bringing up their sophomore seasons IS relevant. Since it's the last season they could be compared on a 1:1 basis.

 

Dank, thats completely disingenius. Miller has showed production since then. So when evaluating someone, you go on their entire body of work. I have no idea how Quinn would have performed last season. No one does. Thats why his limited playing time is such a red flag. So the only thing you can do is compare the entire credentials of the 2 players.

 

If you were hiring someone for your business, and 1 applicant was a recent college grad and 1 applicant had a few years of experience in the field, would ignore the extra work experience and say that you are only going to compare the 2 applicants as they were when they graduated college? No. So that argument doesn't work here as well.

 

Miller has 4 seasons of experience, Quinn has 1. Fair or not, those are the facts. No one is going to discount miller's final 2 seasons just because Quinn didn't get to play.

 

 

Miller has additional qualities which I expect will make him much more successful than Maybin but that doesn't mean the other comparisons and traits are not valid. Just accept them and focus on their differences to make your point instead of ignoring their similarities.

 

But its ok for you guys to ignore the similarities in the career paths of Maybin and Quinn?

[DrDawkinstein]

Dank, thats completely disingenius. Miller has showed production since then...

 

See my last post from a few minutes ago.

 

Im not saying either comparison is "wrong". They are both valid for the sake of our discussion. How much weight you think each one carries is up to you. Neither are going to give us a clear answer on predicting the future. It's all just spinning wheels for another 3 weeks.

 

But for the sake of conversation, if you are going to dissect Quinn's stats so precisely, you might as well dissect Miller's too. We have nothing else to do until the draft.