Tweaking DraftTek's New Mock

[JohnC]

I'm fine with Fairley, but imo it would be unthinkable to pass on Mallett in round 2. It won't matter because he will be long gone.

 

Also, we could use a player like Preston Dial on this team. Even if he can't play TE (and he might e better than what we have), he would make a huge impact on special teams.

 

Again.....jmo.

 

I disagree with you that Mallett won't be available as a second round pick because he will be taken in the first round. But sidestepping that issue I don't see Mallett's style fitting in with what CG envisions his qb to have. Gailey prefers a qb who is mobile enough to extend a play. Even you, as a "Mallett afficionado", will acknowledge that he doesn't fit that mold.

 

I'm hoping that Gabbert/Newton will be our first pick. But if not I see a qb such as Ponder and Kaepernick as secondary options for this organization. (I'm starting to get a little intrigued with Kaepernick.) Kaepernick has some exceptional raw tools that our HC can work with to develop.

 

I do like Mallett. However, this scintillating passer needs to be in a system that is better suited to his Clydesdale-heavy leggd attributes. Minnesota and Tennessee would be good situations for him. The last thing you would want for a player you favor so much is to put him in a situation that would be disasterous for him. Buffalo is simply not the right fit for him.

Edited March 25, 2011 by JohnC

[Bill from NYC]

I disagree with you that Mallett won't be available as a second round pick because he will be taken in the first round. But sidestepping that issue I don't see Mallett's style fitting in with what CG envisions his qb to have. Gailey prefers a qb who is mobile enough to extend a play. Even you, as a "Mallett afficionado", will acknowledge that he doesn't fit that mold.

 

I'm hoping that Gabbert/Newton will be our first pick. But if not I see a qb such as Ponder and Kaepernick as secondary options for this organization. (I'm starting to get a little intrigued with Kaepernick.) Kaepernick has some exceptional raw tools that our HC can work with to develop.

 

Well, let's agree to disagree. Imo Mallett will be LONG gone before the second round. He has TOO much talent to stick around that long John.

But, I do agree that he is not the type of QB for Chan. Newton is. And, I personally strongly prefer Newton to Gabbert, who I view as a larger version of Trent. Seriously, I do NOT want the Bills to draft Gabbert. To be even more descriptive, I don't think that Gabbert will ever be as good as the 2010 Fitz.

 

Signed,

The Guy who thought that RJ would be a star NFL QB.

[Beerball]

Signed,

The Guy who thought that RJ would be a star NFL QB.

Me too. I still remember telling my wife that I hoped the Bills would select him coming out of USC. I thought he had IT.

 

Unfortunately she still remembers the conversation and reminds me of it from time to time.

 

 

But...Mallett...I said a couple months ago that I'd be POed if the Bills had an opportunity to pick him in the second and passed him by. I've come far off of that statement in the time since...I wouldn't take him before the 4th, maybe mid-late 3rd.

[stony]

Agree about Hangartner. I just don't see the Bills drafting at Guard this year. They love Urbik (When they got him Nix said they now had the top 3 o-linemen on their board--Wood, Levitre, and Urbik), and I think they'll give him a shot, esp if Wood becomes full-time Center. Wang will also be in the mix as a guard. Wrotto, Brown, Howard and others are backups.

 

Well that pretty much answers my question about not taking Danny Watkins or Ben Ijalana in the 3rd.

[DrDawkinstein]

Not the most exciting mock Ive seen, but not horrible either.

 

I like the 1st pick and the 2nd is ok, although it feels like we're leaving talent on the board from rounds 2 through 5...

 

If I may do a "Capt Hindsight" Mock based off of this mock, and re-choose out of the players available at the time, my first 4 picks would be:

 

1. Newton

2. Heyward

3. Moch

4. Matthews

Edited March 25, 2011 by DrDankenstein

[JohnC]

Well, let's agree to disagree. Imo Mallett will be LONG gone before the second round. He has TOO much talent to stick around that long John.

But, I do agree that he is not the type of QB for Chan. Newton is. And, I personally strongly prefer Newton to Gabbert, who I view as a larger version of Trent. Seriously, I do NOT want the Bills to draft Gabbert. To be even more descriptive, I don't think that Gabbert will ever be as good as the 2010 Fitz.

 

Signed,

The Guy who thought that RJ would be a star NFL QB.

 

What do you see about Gabbert that troubles you? He seems to have all the tools. From what I have heard about him he is a student of the game and he is known for his diligent preparation. While Rob Johnson seemed to be somewhat aloof BG appears to have more passion and personality.

 

I go back and forth on taking Gabbert or Newton. I view Gabbert as a more polished player. One analyst views him as a Rodgers type qb. However, at times I lean back toward the more unconventional Newton. Very often the "it" factor term is used with the qb position. In all the Auburn games I watched this year (at least five) Newton stood out. Not only was he the best player on the field but he was the most impactful player. The Alabama game stood out for me. A stellar Alabama defense couldn't stop him.

 

You are not alone who thought RJ was going to be a very good qb. But I'm not publicly stating what my thoughts were about him at the time. As it stands my credibility is lacking. I can't afford to diminish what little I have left. So I will give you a "no comment" on what my original thoughts were on RJ.

Edited March 25, 2011 by JohnC

[DrDawkinstein]

What do you see about Gabbert that troubles you? He seems to have all the tools. From what I have heard about him he is a student of the game and he is known for his diligent preparation.

 

I go back and forth on taking Gabbert or Newton. I view Gabbert as a more polished player. One analyst views him as a Rodgers type qb. However, at times I lean back toward the more unconventional Newton. Very often the "it" factor term is used with the qb position. In all the Auburn games I watched this year (at least five) Newton stood out. Not only was he the best player on the field but he was the most impactful player. The Alabama game stood out for me. A stellar Alabama defense couldn't stop him.

 

To hijack this question, my biggest concern about Gabbert is that I feel like he is going to fold under the pressure. I dont know that he has ever faced any pressure or adversity. He might have the "mental ability" to regurgitate the playbook, but I dont know that he is mentally tough. He kinda seems soft, like a Chris Simms.

 

For as "refined" as everyone thinks Gabbert is, I think there are a lot of unknowns and unprovens surrounding him when it comes to toughness. And the NFL is a tough guy league.

 

You touch on this in your second paragraph. Ive seen Newton battle through the (admitedly self inflicted) adversity of having to go to JuCo for a year. Instead of pouting, he set the JuCo league on fire. I've seen him spend an entire first half getting killed by the nation's best defenses, and then battle through and win the game.

 

I havent seen any of that from Gabbart. I also admit I havent seen him play as much as I have Newton. But I dont see "tough guy" being part of his game.

Edited March 25, 2011 by DrDankenstein

[Ball'n]

What do you see about Gabbert that troubles you? He seems to have all the tools. From what I have heard about him he is a student of the game and he is known for his diligent preparation. While Rob Johnson seemed to be somewhat aloof BG appears to have more passion and personality.

 

I go back and forth on taking Gabbert or Newton. I view Gabbert as a more polished player. One analyst views him as a Rodgers type qb. However, at times I lean back toward the more unconventional Newton. Very often the "it" factor term is used with the qb position. In all the Auburn games I watched this year (at least five) Newton stood out. Not only was he the best player on the field but he was the most impactful player. The Alabama game stood out for me. A stellar Alabama defense couldn't stop him.

 

You are not alone who thought RJ was going to be a very good qb. But I'm not publicly stating what my thoughts were about him at the time. As it stands my credibility is lacking. I can't afford to diminish what little I have left. So I will give you a "no comment" on what my original thoughts were on RJ.

They both have issues. If I had to pick one I would go with Cam.

 

Gabbert is a more polished player, like you have said. However, he gets skiddish and seems to really feel the pressure as it closes in on him, and not in a good way. Nix stated that the biggest thing he looks at with a QB is if they can hit the tight window while being pressured, and from watching 3 of his games I personally think that he will not be a great QB because he gets nervous when pressured.

 

I see some issues with Newton as well, mainly mechanics. He has a good throwing motion, but seemingly half his throws he isn't set for, he has terrible footwork, and he seems to use his talent to bail him out of using proper form since it works for him most of the time. The reason I would be okay with drafting him is because he would be ideally sat for at least a season, in which he could hopefully learn to plant for every throw, and learn to be consistent enough with the form that his talent will allow him to hit all the windows with a much lesser risk of a ball sailing or dipping on him. His freelance type play can be considered an asset when on the run however, so I am more talking about while he is in the pocket than out of it. I did notice he will rush a throw at times in order to avoid being hit, but that can be changed. It is not an issue of getting Skiddish like Gabbert. As for making reads and such, I'll leave that to Gailey to decide this Monday. If Cam is on the board for pick #3, I have a feeling the meeting on this Monday will go a long way in if he is picked or not.

[JohnC]

To hijack this question, my biggest concern about Gabbert is that I feel like he is going to fold under the pressure. I dont know that he has ever faced any pressure or adversity. He might have the "mental ability" to regurgitate the playbook, but I dont know that he is mentally tough. He kinda seems soft, like a Chris Simms.

 

For as "refined" as everyone thinks Gabbert is, I think there are a lot of unknowns and unprovens surrounding him when it comes to toughness. And the NFL is a tough guy league.

 

You touch on this in your second paragraph. Ive seen Newton battle through the (admitedly self inflicted) adversity of having to go to JuCo for a year. Instead of pouting, he set the JuCo league on fire. I've seen him spend an entire first half getting killed by the nation's best defenses, and then battle through and win the game.

 

I havent seen any of that from Gabbart. I also admit I havent seen him play as much as I have Newton. But I dont see "tough guy" being part of his game.

 

Your central point that when evaluating a NFL qb prospect the physical tools are only part of the equation when trying to determine one's pro potential is what it comes down to. That is the essential issue that is unknown when evaluating a qb prospect. Jim Kelly is an HOF qb. What sets him apart from RJ was not the physical talents between them because RJ might have been a better athlete. Toughness, both physical and mental, leadership are not always easy attributes to measure or even grasp when watching game film. But when it comes to controlling the huddle or being in a critical game situation it certainly is a factor.

 

As you point out sometimes when watching a qb there is something that either impresses you or not. Those character issues (from a football standpoint) are the tough judgments that the scouts and front offices have to make. Like you, I haven't watched too much of Gabbert. With Newton he easily stands out when he playes. Is it meaningful? Like your view I think it is.

Edited March 25, 2011 by JohnC

[DrDawkinstein]

Ok, Astro puts a lot of work into these mocks so I dont want to hijack this into another Newton/Gabbart thread.

 

Back to the mocks!...

 

If I may do a "Capt Hindsight" Mock based off of this mock, and re-choose out of the players available at the time, my first 4 picks would be:

 

1. Newton

2. Heyward

3. Moch

4. Matthews

[Dr. Fong]

 

 

TE is left as a glaring need that will have to be filled elsewhere.

 

 

This draft is really weak at TE, so not much you can do about that.

[Thoner7]

While we see him drafted by NEP* as early as Round 1, we feel that this Pouncey isn't THAT Pouncey. Here's what our O-Line expert says:

 

 

Brooks Reed is just below Justin Houston on our Big Board, #38 overall. Houston will go in RD1, but Brooks Reed can play OLB34, DE43, or ILB. He's a maniac. Here's a good clip:

http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/play/nfl_draft_linebackers/hN5Uy2oKEcIOYk6nhpdLRH0PvxYlyO0a

 

I agree with your guy – Pouncy is a bad center, he simply cannot snap the ball. He makes a better G and honestly him and his bro were amazing next to each other. I think he will be a PB G moving forward and honestly I am not sold on Urbik only because the Steelers (much better eye for talent than us) cut him when they had one of the weakest OLs they have fielded in their history. He didn’t see much action with us before injury either.

 

Don’t get me wrong I love Brooks Reed. He is a nasty effort guy and I hope he is on our team. But he is short (6’2’’ I think) and has short arms (which will hurt him as a pass rusher). He is also a short-strider and very stiff. I think that will hurt him in the draft process and cause teams to drop him. If I am a team I make him a late 2nd/early 3rd which puts him in concideration for our 3rd rounder.

 

I don't get the Carimi infatuation ?? I watched some tape of him on utube & Bowers just took him to the wood shed , he couldn't stop the guy so that tells me if he can't stop the guy in college what will he be able to do against NFL talent ???

 

When did Wisconsin play Clemson? I”m sure I would have caught that game and I cant check youtube here at work). But Carimi is a big strong monster who can move. He can get his weight over his toes a bit and get off balance but I think that’s correctable and its been something he has been able to overcome in college. He played great against some very good DE in the Big 10(12) – Claybonre, Heyward, C. Wooten from last year. He also played very well vrs some of the speed guys from TCU and in the Sr bowl practices (injured for game).

 

I think he is going to be the measure of the NFL RT for the next 10 years. He is maybe the only player in the draft I would trade up for.

[Bill from NYC]

Me too. I still remember telling my wife that I hoped the Bills would select him coming out of USC. I thought he had IT.

 

Unfortunately she still remembers the conversation and reminds me of it from time to time.

 

 

But...Mallett...I said a couple months ago that I'd be POed if the Bills had an opportunity to pick him in the second and passed him by. I've come far off of that statement in the time since...I wouldn't take him before the 4th, maybe mid-late 3rd.

 

BB, I was shocked when RJ fell to the first pick of round 4 with all that talent. That is one time the GMs and scouting staffs around the league were on the money.

 

Again, someone is going to scoop Mallett up. Slow? Bad footwork? Don't worry.....he needs little time to set up and his arm is just so strong he can flick 25 yard checkdowns.

Mallett is a huge risk no doubt but IF he develops, he will make throws that fans simply have not seen in years and yes, he does have a better arm that Peyton Manning. That says BETTER ARM, NOT that he will be a better QB.

[Maddog69]

Not the most exciting mock Ive seen, but not horrible either.

 

I like the 1st pick and the 2nd is ok, although it feels like we're leaving talent on the board from rounds 2 through 5...

 

If I may do a "Capt Hindsight" Mock based off of this mock, and re-choose out of the players available at the time, my first 4 picks would be:

 

1. Newton

2. Heyward

3. Moch

4. Matthews

 

Dr D, I love this mock. I would be pretty happy with your choices

[dpberr]

Hate that second pick.

[Astrobot]

What I don't understand are the mocks that take OLB and QB before addressing our #32 run defense with DE pressure and ILB quickness.

 

There are only a few decent ILB's in this draft. In my opinion, they include Mo Linebackers Sturdivant, McCarthy, and Casey Matthews, and to a lesser extent Jones-Irving-Bynes and Homan. Mike Linebackers Wilson, Sheppard, Foster, and Ayers are good, better than Wright-Herzlich (although I like his attitude)-White-McCarthy.

 

We will not get anyone as good or better than Poz and Batten after RD3, and RD3 is pushing it.

[Spillerwich]

All sound like good choices. I wish I had the depth to go deap into the later rounds and pick players. I would like to see Von Miller, or Marcell Dareus at 3. Then take an OL player with our 2nd round pick. We might be able to wait for Ponder or the kid from UNR Kaepernick. Just my quick look into the draft. GO BILLS!!!!!!!!

[SouthernMan]

I was pumped to see the results of DraftTek's latest mock draft. I could definitely see this unfold in 35 days. Much of what is said in these last 5 weeks will be smoke and mirrors. I'd love it if these were the Bills' picks.

 

Tell me what you think, because you actually have a voice in setting our positional needs. TSW is the only board I come to to discuss what needs to feed into our computer mock.

 

Astro

 

 

Fairly will be a huge bust - that's what I think. Mark my words.

[Bill from NYC]

Fairly will be a huge bust - that's what I think. Mark my words.

 

Why? Do you think that he lacks talent or are you concerned with character issues?

 

I am a long time Alabama fan and I can tell you that IMO, he is more talented than Dareus.

[boyst]

What I don't understand are the mocks that take OLB and QB before addressing our #32 run defense with DE pressure and ILB quickness.

 

There are only a few decent ILB's in this draft. In my opinion, they include Mo Linebackers Sturdivant, McCarthy, and Casey Matthews, and to a lesser extent Jones-Irving-Bynes and Homan. Mike Linebackers Wilson, Sheppard, Foster, and Ayers are good, better than Wright-Herzlich (although I like his attitude)-White-McCarthy.

 

We will not get anyone as good or better than Poz and Batten after RD3, and RD3 is pushing it.

The ability to wait on the ILB in the draft combined with not getting a big-tall middle stretching TE are the reasons why I worry about this draft.

 

Think about it: If we can get a good, strong MLB that can play both 4-3 and 3-4 Sam then we can truly become a hybrid.

 

Get ourselves a Sam who can stay on the field as a MLB 4-3 and ILB in 3-4. In the 4-3 @ DE you could have Johnson, Carrington, Kelsay switching it up with a rookie, DT Troup, Williams, and probably some FA. At LB, it would be that key guy with Merriman/Moats, Ellison/Coleman on the outside. We should keep Davis or Ayodele (preferred) for depth.

 

To flex to a 3-4 you would simply need to slide Kelsay to OLB, take out Ellison/Coleman and put in Poz. It would be something like Johnson/Carrington, Troup/Heard, Williams (changes to 3 or 4 technique/hybrid DE/DT) on the front with Moats/Merriman - new stud ILB - Poz - Kelsay.