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If we go QB at #3


Damian

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I keep seeing posts where the Bills draft a QB at the #3 pick and then have him sit for the whole year. My question is why have them ride the bench?

 

If you look at the recent 1st round QB picks, you see alot that started as rookies: Big Ben, Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, etc.

 

IMO, if you think the guy you drafted is your new franchise QB, you might as well let him start getting the experience that only playing the game can give. The Steelers won a SB with Big Ben being a rookie, the Ravens made it to the AFC conference championship with Flacco as a rookie, so its not like you would be throwing your season away by starting a rookie QB.

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If they do go QB at #3 that guy is your 2011 starter from game #1 - no question. For the people that say let him sit behind Fitzy like Aaron Rodgers did, I respectfully remind them that Rodgers sat only because he was behind an NFL institution known as Brett Favre. You don't make the multi-million dollar commitment that a QB at #3 requires to have the guy sit for 1/4 of his rookie contract before you find out if he is the man.

 

So for all of the Fitzpatrick loyalists (and I may be one) be careful what you wish for. If Gabbert or Newton has his name called at #3, Fitz goes straight back to the bench.

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If they do go QB at #3 that guy is your 2011 starter from game #1 - no question. For the people that say let him sit behind Fitzy like Aaron Rodgers did, I respectfully remind them that Rodgers sat only because he was behind an NFL institution known as Brett Favre. You don't make the multi-million dollar commitment that a QB at #3 requires to have the guy sit for 1/4 of his rookie contract before you find out if he is the man.

 

So for all of the Fitzpatrick loyalists (and I may be one) be careful what you wish for. If Gabbert or Newton has his name called at #3, Fitz goes straight back to the bench.

I respectfully disagree. It isn't that black and white or cut and dry. It entirely depends on the QB they take and whether or not he is ready to be a starter. Big Ben could start right away because the Steelers had a terrific D and a great OL. He could learn on the job without sacrificing wins. Ryan was an NFL ready QB from day one -- not to mention that Atlanta didn't have any other viable options at QB BUT Ryan. The same can be said with Flacco.

 

You could successfully argue that wins won't matter in 2011 (if there is a 2011) since the Bills aren't a playoff contender even if they have the perfect draft, so why not start a young buck. But that's where it comes down to WHO they pick. I don't think either Newton or Gabbert are NFL ready from day one -- plus factor in the lockout which will limit (if not eliminate) all OTAs and a chunk of training camp and it's simply unrealistic to expect Newton or Gabbert to be able to come in on short notice and be day one starters. The veterans on the team won't respect it. And the QBs themselves would be unprepared.

 

Plus, unlike the Steelers, Falcons, Ravens, Rams or Lions -- the Bills HAVE a very good option at QB already. Someone who can ease the transition. Yes, he's not Favre, but the situation in Buffalo is closer to the Packers when they took Rodgers than it is to the other teams mentioned.

 

The worst thing the Bills could do is rush a guy into a starting role simply because he was picked at 3 regardless of whether or not he's ready. That's just not the way to build your team or QB.

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Yes, there will be growing pains as the rookie QB adapts to the NFL, but wouldn't you want him to have those pains while we are still in rebuild mode? What would they learn standing on the sideline with a clipboard in their hand that they wouldn't learn tenfold taking the snap under center?

 

The #3 pick of the draft is not a project QB that you hope can eventually learn the system, they are the new face of your franchise.

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I respectfully disagree. It isn't that black and white or cut and dry. It entirely depends on the QB they take and whether or not he is ready to be a starter. Big Ben could start right away because the Steelers had a terrific D and a great OL. He could learn on the job without sacrificing wins. Ryan was an NFL ready QB from day one -- not to mention that Atlanta didn't have any other viable options at QB BUT Ryan. The same can be said with Flacco.

 

You could successfully argue that wins won't matter in 2011 (if there is a 2011) since the Bills aren't a playoff contender even if they have the perfect draft, so why not start a young buck. But that's where it comes down to WHO they pick. I don't think either Newton or Gabbert are NFL ready from day one -- plus factor in the lockout which will limit (if not eliminate) all OTAs and a chunk of training camp and it's simply unrealistic to expect Newton or Gabbert to be able to come in on short notice and be day one starters. The veterans on the team won't respect it. And the QBs themselves would be unprepared.

 

Plus, unlike the Steelers, Falcons, Ravens, Rams or Lions -- the Bills HAVE a very good option at QB already. Someone who can ease the transition. Yes, he's not Favre, but the situation in Buffalo is closer to the Packers when they took Rodgers than it is to the other teams mentioned.

 

The worst thing the Bills could do is rush a guy into a starting role simply because he was picked at 3 regardless of whether or not he's ready. That's just not the way to build your team or QB.

 

Agree with this 100%! Great post.

 

POW!!!

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I respectfully disagree. It isn't that black and white or cut and dry. It entirely depends on the QB they take and whether or not he is ready to be a starter. Big Ben could start right away because the Steelers had a terrific D and a great OL. He could learn on the job without sacrificing wins. Ryan was an NFL ready QB from day one -- not to mention that Atlanta didn't have any other viable options at QB BUT Ryan. The same can be said with Flacco.

 

You could successfully argue that wins won't matter in 2011 (if there is a 2011) since the Bills aren't a playoff contender even if they have the perfect draft, so why not start a young buck. But that's where it comes down to WHO they pick. I don't think either Newton or Gabbert are NFL ready from day one -- plus factor in the lockout which will limit (if not eliminate) all OTAs and a chunk of training camp and it's simply unrealistic to expect Newton or Gabbert to be able to come in on short notice and be day one starters. The veterans on the team won't respect it. And the QBs themselves would be unprepared.

 

Plus, unlike the Steelers, Falcons, Ravens, Rams or Lions -- the Bills HAVE a very good option at QB already. Someone who can ease the transition. Yes, he's not Favre, but the situation in Buffalo is closer to the Packers when they took Rodgers than it is to the other teams mentioned.

 

The worst thing the Bills could do is rush a guy into a starting role simply because he was picked at 3 regardless of whether or not he's ready. That's just not the way to build your team or QB.

While I agree with many of your points I think that the fact that Chan will be in year 2 of what, iirc, is a 3-year contract will make it near impossible for him to sit a #3 overall QB for a year. If he does that it would put him in the position of having 8-10 games max in year 3 (When the Bills would be looking to extend him)with a 1st year starting QB to extend his life as an NFL head coach. Remember, this is already his 2nd kick at the can as a top man in the NFL. If he fails here he won't get a third shot.

 

Also, if the rookie looks good in preseason, it would make it very hard for the staff to stick with their plan, especially if Fitz stumbles coming out of the gate. I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts right now that any QB that's drafted that high by the Bills starts over Fitz from day 1.

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While I agree with many of your points I think that the fact that Chan will be in year 2 of what, iirc, is a 3-year contract will make it near impossible for him to sit a #3 overall QB for a year. If he does that it would put him in the position of having 8-10 games max in year 3 (When the Bills would be looking to extend him)with a 1st year starting QB to extend his life as an NFL head coach. Remember, this is already his 2nd kick at the can as a top man in the NFL. If he fails here he won't get a third shot.

 

Also, if the rookie looks good in preseason, it would make it very hard for the staff to stick with their plan, especially if Fitz stumbles coming out of the gate. I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts right now that any QB that's drafted that high by the Bills starts over Fitz from day 1.

You make excellent points and could well turn out to be right. I still am not sold that they will take a QB at 3, but if they do let's make a fun bet! :beer:

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I keep seeing posts where the Bills draft a QB at the #3 pick and then have him sit for the whole year. My question is why have them ride the bench?

 

If you look at the recent 1st round QB picks, you see alot that started as rookies: Big Ben, Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, etc.

 

IMO, if you think the guy you drafted is your new franchise QB, you might as well let him start getting the experience that only playing the game can give. The Steelers won a SB with Big Ben being a rookie, the Ravens made it to the AFC conference championship with Flacco as a rookie, so its not like you would be throwing your season away by starting a rookie QB.

 

You make the point regarding rookie 1st round QB's staring in their first season, but for many of them there is a very good reason they are thrown to the wolves. I will use the QB's you mentioned as an example.

 

Ben Roethlisberger - QB before he was drafted: Tommy Maddox Stats: 3414 yds 18 TD 17 INT

 

Sam Bradford - QB's before he was drafted: Marc Bulger, Keith Null, Kyle Boller Combined Stats: 2060 yds 8 TD 16 INT

 

Joe Flacco - QB's before he was drafted: Kyle Boller, Steve McNair, Troy Smith Combined Stats: 3180 yds 13 TD 14 INT

 

Matt Ryan - QB's before he was drafted: Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redmon Combined Stats: 3573 yds 18 TD 15 INT

 

Matthew Stafford - QB's before he was drafted: Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Henson, John Kitna Combined Stats: 3180 yds 17 TD 19 INT

 

Mark Sanchez - QB before he was drafted: Brett Favre (We all know what happened to Brett) Stats: 3472 yds 22 TD 22 INT

 

My point is...there were very good reasons for all of these QB's to be thrust into the starting role in their rookie season.

 

2010 Stats Ryan Fitzpatrick: 3000 yds 23 TD 15 INT...in 13 games. Given Fitz's performance in 2010, do we really need to put a rookie QB on the field just because they are a 1st round pick? Furthermore, do we really need to use a 1st round pick on a QB at all?

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You make the point regarding rookie 1st round QB's staring in their first season, but for many of them there is a very good reason they are thrown to the wolves. I will use the QB's you mentioned as an example.

 

Ben Roethlisberger - QB before he was drafted: Tommy Maddox Stats: 3414 yds 18 TD 17 INT

 

Sam Bradford - QB's before he was drafted: Marc Bulger, Keith Null, Kyle Boller Combined Stats: 2060 yds 8 TD 16 INT

 

Joe Flacco - QB's before he was drafted: Kyle Boller, Steve McNair, Troy Smith Combined Stats: 3180 yds 13 TD 14 INT

 

Matt Ryan - QB's before he was drafted: Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redmon Combined Stats: 3573 yds 18 TD 15 INT

 

Matthew Stafford - QB's before he was drafted: Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Henson, John Kitna Combined Stats: 3180 yds 17 TD 19 INT

 

Mark Sanchez - QB before he was drafted: Brett Favre (We all know what happened to Brett) Stats: 3472 yds 22 TD 22 INT

 

My point is...there were very good reasons for all of these QB's to be thrust into the starting role in their rookie season.

 

2010 Stats Ryan Fitzpatrick: 3000 yds 23 TD 15 INT...in 13 games. Given Fitz's performance in 2010, do we really need to put a rookie QB on the field just because they are a 1st round pick? Furthermore, do we really need to use a 1st round pick on a QB at all?

Good post :thumbsup:

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Gailey made a BIG point last year of making rookies earn their playing time. IMHO, that was

HUGE in keeping the veterans engaged. By keeping the rooks on the bench until they unseated

a vet, it kept the vets playing hard - and setting a good example of professionalism for the

rookies.

 

Note that Spiller was benched quickly after he started slowly, Troup and Carrington had to

earn their playing time, etc. I think that is win-win. The vets show play hard and show the

rookies what it takes to play, the rookies realize they need to work hard to EARN a starting

job. What's not to like about that?

 

I don't think that Gailey will change that MO for any of the QBs in this rookie class. I think it

would be a HUGE mistake, if he did.

 

FWIW, I would HATE them taking Cam Newton. I don't see anything that he did in college

translating to the NFL. He won with his legs and the threat of a run getting his first read

open.

 

IF the Bills insist on an "athletic" QB, then I'd rather have Gabbert or Locker or Kaepernick (in

round 2). I see NOTHING that Newton has on Locker in terms of athletic ability or production

and I don't see anyone clammoring for Locker at #3. I think Locker wins in terms of work

ethic and dedication and he is at least even in terms of athletic ability. Yes, Newton's completion

% was better, but he played on a very talented Auburn team that featured his running and Locker

played in a VERY bad program, but it was more a pro-style offense.

 

Now, I am not touting Locker at #3. I am just saying that I like him better than Newton. Given

my druthers, I'd go D in round one and consider the best of Locker, Kaepernick and Dalton

in round 2.

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You make the point regarding rookie 1st round QB's staring in their first season, but for many of them there is a very good reason they are thrown to the wolves. ...

My point is...there were very good reasons for all of these QB's to be thrust into the starting role in their rookie season.

 

2010 Stats Ryan Fitzpatrick: 3000 yds 23 TD 15 INT...in 13 games. Given Fitz's performance in 2010, do we really need to put a rookie QB on the field just because they are a 1st round pick? Furthermore, do we really need to use a 1st round pick on a QB at all?

 

 

No, to the bolded part, IMO.

 

Great banter in this thread!:thumbsup:

 

Let's take this scenario out a year. What if we have a shot at Andrew Luck? Fitz to the bench game #1?

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No, to the bolded part, IMO.

 

Great banter in this thread!:thumbsup:

 

Let's take this scenario out a year. What if we have a shot at Andrew Luck? Fitz to the bench game #1?

 

Now that depends upon whether or not there is a 2011 season. If there is a season, and Fitz improves on his performance from last year, then no....Luck carries around a clip board until he is needed. Let's be honest though...if the Bills lose enough games to get a shot at Luck, Fitz probably wouldn't have had a good year. Consequently, Luck would be the week 1 starter in 2012.

 

You kind of answered your own question.

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Now that depends upon whether or not there is a 2011 season. If there is a season, and Fitz improves on his performance from last year, then no....Luck carries around a clip board until he is needed. Let's be honest though...if the Bills lose enough games to get a shot at Luck, Fitz probably wouldn't have had a good year. Consequently, Luck would be the week 1 starter in 2012.

 

You kind of answered your own question.

 

Unless, as you offer, there isn't a 2011 season -or one without current players(God forbid!). Then everything's the same and Luck enters the draft..

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I keep seeing posts where the Bills draft a QB at the #3 pick and then have him sit for the whole year. My question is why have them ride the bench?

 

If you look at the recent 1st round QB picks, you see alot that started as rookies: Big Ben, Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, etc.

 

IMO, if you think the guy you drafted is your new franchise QB, you might as well let him start getting the experience that only playing the game can give. The Steelers won a SB with Big Ben being a rookie, the Ravens made it to the AFC conference championship with Flacco as a rookie, so its not like you would be throwing your season away by starting a rookie QB.

 

This is a really interesting post making an interesting point indirectly.

 

Big Ben, Bradford, the Mannings, and Ryan were all "NFL-ready": ready to come in and start from Day 1.

Sanchez and arguably Flacco were simply asked to be game-managers and not lose it, which is a role a QB can assume as a rookie.

Stafford it's hard for me to tell, the Lions around him were that bad.

 

The consensus seems to be that none of the top QB prospects touted as high 1st round draft picks are ready to come in and start immediately.

They have played entirely in spread offenses, and would take time to learn to make pre-snap reads and adjust to the play calling and pace of the NFL.

 

There is an argument to be made that goes something like this:

1) a QB chosen with a high 1st round draft pick should be ready to start immediately

2) none of this year's top QB prospects are recognized as ready to come in and start immediately

3) therefore none of this year's top QB prospects are worthy of a high 1st round pick

 

How will the NFL teams actually see it? Will they use a top pick on a guy who most seem to agree should sit on the bench for a year? Come back in 5 weeks.

Will their choice actually sit on the bench for a year? Come back if there's a season.

 

Many of the top QB in the league had time to learn the pro game, and would arguably not have been as good if they had been "thrown into the fire" from day 1.

Rodgers, Rivers, etcetera.

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Even Fizpatrick said it wasn't until he started getting more starts that everything started to come together and his game improved. If we draft a QB, why we wouldn't we want him to get as much experience as possible? It's not like next year the Bills are Super Bowl bound if we keep Fitz as the starter (and it is the last year of Fitz's contract).

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I keep seeing posts where the Bills draft a QB at the #3 pick and then have him sit for the whole year. My question is why have them ride the bench?

 

If you look at the recent 1st round QB picks, you see alot that started as rookies: Big Ben, Bradford, Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Sanchez, etc.

 

IMO, if you think the guy you drafted is your new franchise QB, you might as well let him start getting the experience that only playing the game can give. The Steelers won a SB with Big Ben being a rookie, the Ravens made it to the AFC conference championship with Flacco as a rookie, so its not like you would be throwing your season away by starting a rookie QB.

 

I've said this often, but not as a "must follow" rule. My point was that, with Fitz on the roster, we have the luxury of sitting the rookie if we need to. It's all about options.

 

Fitz only has 1 year left on his contract. If we wait to draft a QB in 2012 we might be stuck having to start him no matter what. And then you run the risk of putting him in too early and breaking him.

 

Everyone is different. Some guys can go from Week 1. Some guys take a few months to get it. Some need a full season (or two). And you never really know for sure until it's happening. So why not take advantage of the situation we have?

 

I also believe (correct me if Im wrong) the Roethlisberger came in his rookie year due to injury. Same with Flacco. And Id also say that both of those teams were MUCH more established and talented than the current Bills team.

 

Not that we "have to", but letting the rookie sit and learn while we shore up the OLine and Defense, isnt a bad thing.

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