Mock Draft 1

[Astrobot]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB’s or TE’s who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I’d grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it’s way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE’s at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT’s in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

[SoggyHog]

I LOVE Fairley-Ayers 1-2! I like Ponder in the 3rd, however, I don't think he will last. I just started a thread on a possible trade with AZ to get Ponder with the 38th. pick. Chekwa in round 4 is a MUST if he is there. Love the work you do on Draft Tek!

[Philo]

Thanks for the post Astrobot! I'll admit I was being sucked into the Newton at #3 talk but I would be absolutely fine with this draft. Addresses our front seven needs early and grabs a good quarterback in Stanzi to groom for the future.

[The Senator]

While I still want Von Miller in round one, all the talk about Newton makes me think Buddy & Chan are fixin' to make Blaine Gabbert our 'franchise QB' for the next 10-12 years.

[CosmicBills]

Wait -- what did Green do at the Combine that drops him? I missed it.

 

Thanks!

[Astrobot]

Wait -- what did Green do at the Combine that drops him? I missed it.

 

Thanks!

It could be minor, but he showed up less in shape than Julio Jones, and in his media interview he mentioned his need to give more effort at practices. He's also been criticized in the past for not giving 100% as a a downfield blocker, and you see that on tape.

 

The significance of that to us is that fewer teams would trade up to #3. He's still Mayock's #1 WR, but I don't think he's Top 5.

[Thoner7]

YOu think the 2nd is too early for Phil Taylor? Men of his size and mobility are in demand. If Dan Williams can go in the 1st Phil Taylor absolutely can.

[NoSaint]

YOu think the 2nd is too early for Phil Taylor? Men of his size and mobility are in demand. If Dan Williams can go in the 1st Phil Taylor absolutely can.

 

Yea most of the Taylor at 34 complaints I've seen are that there's no way he lasts, not that it's too early.

[billsfan89]

I really don't see the need to draft a QB in the 1st 4 rounds at all. Give Fitz another year maybe pick up a quality backup in free agency to push Brohm and Brown. All in all this team has too many needs to waste a valuable pick on a position like QB.

[spartacus]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB's or TE's who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I'd grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it's way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE's at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT's in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

Dareus at 12?

 

 

Cam Newton at 15??

 

 

sort of destroys whatever credibility you think you may have at this site

Edited February 26, 2011 by spartacus

[CosmicBills]

I really don't see the need to draft a QB in the 1st 4 rounds at all. Give Fitz another year maybe pick up a quality backup in free agency to push Brohm and Brown. All in all this team has too many needs to waste a valuable pick on a position like QB.

Yeah because QB is the least important position on the field

 

It could be minor, but he showed up less in shape than Julio Jones, and in his media interview he mentioned his need to give more effort at practices. He's also been criticized in the past for not giving 100% as a a downfield blocker, and you see that on tape.

 

The significance of that to us is that fewer teams would trade up to #3. He's still Mayock's #1 WR, but I don't think he's Top 5.

Cool, thanks for the info!

[1B4IDie]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB’s or TE’s who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I’d grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it’s way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE’s at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT’s in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

 

You guys usually seem to be on to something but now I just think you're over thinking everything.

 

Ayers will be a top 20 pick, no question.

Newton will be a top 10 pick, no question.

 

John Elway\Fox is not going to take a CB with their first, first round pick, that is pure crackery.

Edited February 26, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[stony]

While I still want Von Miller in round one, all the talk about Newton makes me think Buddy & Chan are fixin' to make Blaine Gabbert our 'franchise QB' for the next 10-12 years.

 

Yessir. I agree.

 

In regards to the mock, getting Ayers in the 2nd would be a coup.

[SWVABillsFan]

What in the world does Buffalo need another corner for? Are you working for Jauron?

[Estro]

You guys usually seem to be on to something but now I just think you're over thinking everything.

 

Ayers will be a top 20 pick, no question.

Newton will be a top 10 pick, no question.

 

John Elway\Fox is not going to take a CB with their first, first round pick, that is pure crackery.

 

 

I disagree with your opinion of Ayers. He does seem to have gained some interest as of late, but he's a 2nd round prospect, IMO. I'm actually not a fan of his at all. He's got a lanky, thin build and I don't think he's all that strong against the run. Okay but not good. I see him get pushed back and easily blocked a lot on his game tape. I think we could do better with our 2nd round pick than Ayers. I happen to like Justin Houston, a lot more, even though he's more of a pure OLB than Ayers who some project as an ILB.

 

I'm not sure why Houston hasn't received the same type of hype as Ayers as he looks to be the better player of the two. I don't think Houston will make it past NE at pick #33, but if he does I'd love to see the Bills take him.

[truth on hold]

Why would Denver take Peterson when they just signed Bailet to a 4 year deal, making him 2nd highest paid DB behind Revis?

[SoulMan]

I like it but would go LT in the 3rd.

[Hplarrm]

Thanks Astro! I really think that the Draft Tek work is great as a guide for understanding and being entertained by the draft!

 

However, the reality of what happens with actual picks on draft day fairly quickly ends up showing that the draft and actual football in the NFL are two different things. Mel Kiper, ESPN and a plethora of blogs and magazines who make a couple of bucks off the draft have turned it into their own industry which unfortunately removes it further and further from actual NFL team building and play.

 

For example, it is impossible in the first place to know the future in terms of really knowing who will be picked and as soon as there is one substantial surprise really one should throw out all the mocks (unless you cannot retrieve it to throw it out because it is already too wet from circling the toilet bowl) Mock drafts still have some usefulness IF they collect lots of useful data, but as predictions they become quickly worthless.

 

Another way that the mocks are virtually totally worthless as predictive devices is that no one can predict the wild card of trades. Once one major trade occurs the predictive ability drops to near zero and individual forecasts of what a particular team may do with their mere 7 picks is also often ripped assunder.

 

Amidst all this Kiper hair gel draft garbage though DraftTek separates itself by going in depth with a seven round guide to where to look at things once reality begins to strike the second day. Its a great tool.

 

One just has to be careful however that when ones tool is a hammer you do not attempt to treat every screw as though it was a nail.

 

At any rate my wild eyed guesstimate which will be rendered wrong by reality is:

 

1. Bills work diligently and almost desperately to trade their 1st round pick as virtually all the teams judge that this is actually a strong draft which goes very deep, but there really is no agreed franchise talent this year. Further the likely creation of a rookie salary cap when the smoke clears on the CBA negotiations (the owners really want to not speculate and give millions to Ryan Leaf types and the players like the inflated rookie salaries as it drives up all salaries but in the short term with a guaranteed NFLwide salary cap you can divert money from the rookies to a wide groups of middling vets and salaries are still driven up,

 

We want to trade but cannot but "settle" for DE Fairly as:

 

1. Most have him as a difference maker as a player due to his postseason performance and the sense he generally is seen as a top 5 choice so the critics will be either satisfied or easily fended off if they whine.

2. This is a deep draft at DE generally so trading down would be great if we can do it. However, if the DE stack diminishes a chunk in the first it puts us into even stronger position to trade our #2 as second pick on the second day of the draft. Having already gotten a DE we then can trade down with the idea in mind of still getting the ILB plus another high level pick for our #2/

 

3. The details after the 1st round are pretty unknowable, but I think that though the Bills are totally blowing smoke allowing and encouraging Newton speculation, that Nix's public description of needs is not farfetched, This is: 2 ILBs, 2 DEs, cornerback and safety, Though generally this is true, I think one area where thankfully he is lying to us (I am an advocate of them lying to us publicly if this is part of fooling opponents into thinking our desires are different than they areO is that it appears obvious even to this outsider that we are at least a player and a half away from OL adequacy (an RT starter and a swing man allowing us to deal with injury that almost certainly is gonna deny you an OL guy for some significant time at some point).

 

In general my own non-professional need assessment is DE- We need 2 even in a 3-4 D. 2 LBs- The crew we ended up with simply did not cut it, Throw in the guys who ended up on the DL, even the one who have shown actual production in the past (Davis, Merriman for example are long enough in the tooth that one cannot count on them to return to their previous form) and this group is questionable at bet. I liked Pos better as an OLB when he was drafted and perhaps his use as an MLB have shown forearm injury issues and inappropriate training which make this FA someone not to count on, We need at least two players to be adequate and maybe (a BIG maybe can be developed from our current roster. I blame this position in a 3-4 for not stopping the run AND not producing enough pressure and sacks. As far as the DBs I actually like this crew playing at their best. However, with limited pass rush pressure its hard to count on this group playing their best. A QB pick is gonna be very disappointing to me as besides some theoretical field position improvement (like this is guaranteed of any rookie QB) the pick does nothing for the glaring D need.

 

Even worse such a pick essentially commits this team to use their second choice to reinforce the OL or be comfortable with this QB safely learning the game from the bench.

 

Blauugh if the first two picks are not D picks.

 

3. What I actually GUESS will happen is that the Bills snatch Fairly and still need to find a candidate for the other DE spot. They fail to find a taker for the #3 but with a night for other teams to stew on stuff and the Bills stepping up to the second pick on day 2 they actually trade the high value 2nd round pick to get 2 fairly high 2nd rounders (or the equivalent, Armed with an extra pick they can then shop for an LB, maybe the second DE. and/or a QB of folks insist as I think one of the recently praised QB stars like Mallett or Locker will fall perhaps one of these talents even falls to rd 3 or 4. It does not matter as they will mostly sit and learn the game behind Fitzy.

 

At least that is my one and a half cents as everyone is at least a half cent short right now.

[spartacus]

Thanks Astro! I really think that the Draft Tek work is great as a guide for understanding and being entertained by the draft!

 

However, the reality of what happens with actual picks on draft day fairly quickly ends up showing that the draft and actual football in the NFL are two different things. Mel Kiper, ESPN and a plethora of blogs and magazines who make a couple of bucks off the draft have turned it into their own industry which unfortunately removes it further and further from actual NFL team building and play.

 

For example, it is impossible in the first place to know the future in terms of really knowing who will be picked and as soon as there is one substantial surprise really one should throw out all the mocks (unless you cannot retrieve it to throw it out because it is already too wet from circling the toilet bowl) Mock drafts still have some usefulness IF they collect lots of useful data, but as predictions they become quickly worthless.

 

Another way that the mocks are virtually totally worthless as predictive devices is that no one can predict the wild card of trades. Once one major trade occurs the predictive ability drops to near zero and individual forecasts of what a particular team may do with their mere 7 picks is also often ripped assunder.

 

Amidst all this Kiper hair gel draft garbage though DraftTek separates itself by going in depth with a seven round guide to where to look at things once reality begins to strike the second day. Its a great tool.

 

One just has to be careful however that when ones tool is a hammer you do not attempt to treat every screw as though it was a nail.

 

At any rate my wild eyed guesstimate which will be rendered wrong by reality is:

 

1. Bills work diligently and almost desperately to trade their 1st round pick as virtually all the teams judge that this is actually a strong draft which goes very deep, but there really is no agreed franchise talent this year. Further the likely creation of a rookie salary cap when the smoke clears on the CBA negotiations (the owners really want to not speculate and give millions to Ryan Leaf types and the players like the inflated rookie salaries as it drives up all salaries but in the short term with a guaranteed NFLwide salary cap you can divert money from the rookies to a wide groups of middling vets and salaries are still driven up,

 

We want to trade but cannot but "settle" for DE Fairly as:

 

1. Most have him as a difference maker as a player due to his postseason performance and the sense he generally is seen as a top 5 choice so the critics will be either satisfied or easily fended off if they whine.

2. This is a deep draft at DE generally so trading down would be great if we can do it. However, if the DE stack diminishes a chunk in the first it puts us into even stronger position to trade our #2 as second pick on the second day of the draft. Having already gotten a DE we then can trade down with the idea in mind of still getting the ILB plus another high level pick for our #2/

 

3. The details after the 1st round are pretty unknowable, but I think that though the Bills are totally blowing smoke allowing and encouraging Newton speculation, that Nix's public description of needs is not farfetched, This is: 2 ILBs, 2 DEs, cornerback and safety, Though generally this is true, I think one area where thankfully he is lying to us (I am an advocate of them lying to us publicly if this is part of fooling opponents into thinking our desires are different than they areO is that it appears obvious even to this outsider that we are at least a player and a half away from OL adequacy (an RT starter and a swing man allowing us to deal with injury that almost certainly is gonna deny you an OL guy for some significant time at some point).

 

In general my own non-professional need assessment is DE- We need 2 even in a 3-4 D. 2 LBs- The crew we ended up with simply did not cut it, Throw in the guys who ended up on the DL, even the one who have shown actual production in the past (Davis, Merriman for example are long enough in the tooth that one cannot count on them to return to their previous form) and this group is questionable at bet. I liked Pos better as an OLB when he was drafted and perhaps his use as an MLB have shown forearm injury issues and inappropriate training which make this FA someone not to count on, We need at least two players to be adequate and maybe (a BIG maybe can be developed from our current roster. I blame this position in a 3-4 for not stopping the run AND not producing enough pressure and sacks. As far as the DBs I actually like this crew playing at their best. However, with limited pass rush pressure its hard to count on this group playing their best. A QB pick is gonna be very disappointing to me as besides some theoretical field position improvement (like this is guaranteed of any rookie QB) the pick does nothing for the glaring D need.

 

Even worse such a pick essentially commits this team to use their second choice to reinforce the OL or be comfortable with this QB safely learning the game from the bench.

 

Blauugh if the first two picks are not D picks.

 

3. What I actually GUESS will happen is that the Bills snatch Fairly and still need to find a candidate for the other DE spot. They fail to find a taker for the #3 but with a night for other teams to stew on stuff and the Bills stepping up to the second pick on day 2 they actually trade the high value 2nd round pick to get 2 fairly high 2nd rounders (or the equivalent, Armed with an extra pick they can then shop for an LB, maybe the second DE. and/or a QB of folks insist as I think one of the recently praised QB stars like Mallett or Locker will fall perhaps one of these talents even falls to rd 3 or 4. It does not matter as they will mostly sit and learn the game behind Fitzy.

 

At least that is my one and a half cents as everyone is at least a half cent short right now.

so the DE that Nix drafted last year is already a bust and being replaced by another 2nd or 3rd rounder?

 

 

I don't think 2 DEs is a priority on anyone's wish list when they still don't have 1 NFL quality 3-4 nose tackle or any NFL caliber LBs.

 

Cam will be the pick in the 1st round unless he goes #1 to Carolina- which is very likely.

 

As far as trading down, the top picks are not as damaging this year when the rookie wage scale kicks in to limit the massive contracts and guaranteed payment. Maybe Buddy surprises and moves up to #1 for Cam.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cåblelady]

sort of destroys whatever credibility you think you may have at this site

Wha?? Astro ROCKS!