Mock Draft 1

[San Jose Bills Fan]

A comment and a question.

 

Marcel Dareus is considered (not only by me) to be "scheme versatile."

 

At Alabama he played in multiple fronts as a 3-technique tackle and a 5-technique end.

 

At 6'3" and 319 pounds (Combine Measurements) he's even big enough to take some snaps at nose tackle.

 

So I don't see why Dareus is not viewed by DrafTek as being versatile.

 

Also, what are your thoughts on JJ Watt?

[JohnC]

I'm working right now on my commentary for the Bills' picks on the Draft Tek weekly mock draft. It'll be posted some time after midnight. You may be surprised at what the Simulator came up with in RD1: Cameron Jordan, the DE out of Cal. I'm here to discuss the possibility of this pick, not really to defend it or attack it. Mocks are just a kind of game we play to bridge us through the next 8 weeks.

 

I can explain this pick somewhat----Only 3 players in the upper half of RD1 are "scheme versatile"--Quinn, Von Miller, and Cameron Jordan. All 3 have a P2Diff score of ZERO on our Big Board, unlike Dareus, Fairley and Bowers, who take a substantial dropoff down the Big Board if drafted as a 3-4 player. Quinn's been out a year, there are questions about Von Miller (not ideal size, lose contain too often with an overused outside "swim" move), and only Cam Jordan has zero dropoff between DE34 and DE43, and the Bills plan to run a hybrid scheme.

 

Today's mini Astro-Munch of draft pundits suggests that we'll receive some static about this selection:

 

Rob Rang--------DT Dareus

Chad Reuter-----CB Peterson

Pete Prisco-----QB Gabbert

CDS-------------WR Green

Draft Ace-------CB Peterson

Popejoy DBI-----QB Newton

Draft Breakdown-DT Fairley

Draft Bulletin--LB Miller

Draft Countdown-DT Dareus

Draft Daddy-----DT Fairley

Draft Insiders--WR Green

Draft Season----QB Newton

Draft Zoo-------LB Quinn

Kiper-----------QB Newton

McShay----------LB Miller

F'ball's Future-WR Green

Draft 101 Staff-DE Bowers

Chris Maier-----DT Dareus

Draft Blitz-----QB Newton

Draft Dog-------LB Quinn

Draft Geek------WR Green

News and Rumors-WR Green

Walter Football-QB Newton

 

(See why the Bills are the wildcard this year?) But...

 

All of the defensive players listed we've ranked lower than Jordan FOR A 3-4 scheme. Cameron Jordan has the size, quickness, and motor. He is virtually unblockable with more varied pass rush moves than Miller, and he's more practiced in both schemes the Bills run. If Nix doesn't like 1-year wonders, what will he think of Quinn, who's been out a year?

 

Let's discuss the possibility of yet another horse in this race.

Astro

 

There are so many different opinions regarding the draft that your head spins. My contention (minority view) is that if we don't get our franchise qb this year we are squandering a wonderful opportunity. We need to get that most critical postion in place and then continue the multi-year rebuilding process.

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/09000d5d81e8a390/Mora-s-mock-draft?module=HP_video

[RuntheDamnBall]

The desire for the best player at No. 3 to be a franchise QB doesn't mean that there is a franchise QB there. If nix and gailey and co see too many red flags to spend the pick on the QBs rated that highly, they are actually doing the team a service by NOT setting the franchise back 5-7 years based on hope alone. If they think newton or gabbert are really worth that pick, that's fine. If both players are down in the late teens in their board, and in taking a QB they'd be passing up a player who can help the team more (and more immediately), they simply shouldn't take a QB at No. 3.

[JohnC]

The desire for the best player at No. 3 to be a franchise QB doesn't mean that there is a franchise QB there. If nix and gailey and co see too many red flags to spend the pick on the QBs rated that highly, they are actually doing the team a service by NOT setting the franchise back 5-7 years based on hope alone. If they think newton or gabbert are really worth that pick, that's fine. If both players are down in the late teens in their board, and in taking a QB they'd be passing up a player who can help the team more (and more immediately), they simply shouldn't take a QB at No. 3.

 

What if they rate one or two qbs in the top ten of the draft? There is no positon on the field that is more important than the qb position. My point is very simple. When you are in a position to draft a franchise qb and you currently don't have one then you should seize the opportunity. There is never a situation where a good defensive lineman is more impactful than a good starting qb.

[FLFan]

I'm working right now on my commentary for the Bills' picks on the Draft Tek weekly mock draft. It'll be posted some time after midnight. You may be surprised at what the Simulator came up with in RD1: Cameron Jordan, the DE out of Cal. I'm here to discuss the possibility of this pick, not really to defend it or attack it. Mocks are just a kind of game we play to bridge us through the next 8 weeks.

 

I can explain this pick somewhat----Only 3 players in the upper half of RD1 are "scheme versatile"--Quinn, Von Miller, and Cameron Jordan. All 3 have a P2Diff score of ZERO on our Big Board, unlike Dareus, Fairley and Bowers, who take a substantial dropoff down the Big Board if drafted as a 3-4 player. Quinn's been out a year, there are questions about Von Miller (not ideal size, lose contain too often with an overused outside "swim" move), and only Cam Jordan has zero dropoff between DE34 and DE43, and the Bills plan to run a hybrid scheme.

 

Today's mini Astro-Munch of draft pundits suggests that we'll receive some static about this selection:

 

Rob Rang--------DT Dareus

Chad Reuter-----CB Peterson

Pete Prisco-----QB Gabbert

CDS-------------WR Green

Draft Ace-------CB Peterson

Popejoy DBI-----QB Newton

Draft Breakdown-DT Fairley

Draft Bulletin--LB Miller

Draft Countdown-DT Dareus

Draft Daddy-----DT Fairley

Draft Insiders--WR Green

Draft Season----QB Newton

Draft Zoo-------LB Quinn

Kiper-----------QB Newton

McShay----------LB Miller

F'ball's Future-WR Green

Draft 101 Staff-DE Bowers

Chris Maier-----DT Dareus

Draft Blitz-----QB Newton

Draft Dog-------LB Quinn

Draft Geek------WR Green

News and Rumors-WR Green

Walter Football-QB Newton

 

(See why the Bills are the wildcard this year?) But...

 

All of the defensive players listed we've ranked lower than Jordan FOR A 3-4 scheme. Cameron Jordan has the size, quickness, and motor. He is virtually unblockable with more varied pass rush moves than Miller, and he's more practiced in both schemes the Bills run. If Nix doesn't like 1-year wonders, what will he think of Quinn, who's been out a year?

 

Let's discuss the possibility of yet another horse in this race.

Astro

I agree that Cam Jordan makes a great deal of sense for the Bills. Nix has shown he is unconcerned with opinions of pundits (and fans) with respect to where a player should be "slotted" so this would not at all surpirse me. I think the Bills have no interest in Newton, and if they believe Gabbert to be a franchise capable QB will likely take him here, but if they have doubts, Defense it will be - DE or LB. An interesting scenario here is that SF looks to move ahead of an equally QB desperate club, AZ, to get Gabbert. This could enable the Bills to get the guy they want plus picks, a scenario I am sure many Bills fans would love. My early opinion anyway. On another note, Newton falling to 15 or later would not surpise me a bit. I do not see Washington taking him as many do - not a good fit for Shanahan.

[dave mcbride]

From Peter King:

 

4. I think, and I'm actually pretty sure of it, that Nick Fairley will not be the first pick in the draft. I'm trusting Someone Who Knows And Who Has Been Correct About A Lot Of Things In The Past Year on this. He knows who he is, and he's adamant Fairley won't go one.

 

5. I think, by the way, three NFL people told me over the weekend that Marcell Dareus of Alabama will be drafted ahead of Fairley. More versatility and more ability to stop the run than the suddenly lightish (6-foot-3 and 291 pound) Fairley.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/02/28/combine/3.html

[Armchair GM]

For those of you who don't know me, I'm the Bills' Analyst for www.DraftTek.com, and I hang out only at TSW, where I feel there are more fans cognizant about football and the Bills' needs. I'm the one who posts the comments on our weekly Consensus Mocks, like our most recent Fairley-Ayers draft.

 

Here is what I'm thinking:

--->We are not taking a DT early because Nix and Chan are happy with whom they have in Williams/Troup source

 

--->There are very few QB’s or TE’s who will be drafted in the 4th; You have to take QB in the 3rd. That's where Ponder-Mallett-DJ Williams will go. Stocker's Combine bench press moved him into RD#2.

 

--->Nix wants 2 ILBS coming from somewhere (Draft or FA or Batten)--I’d grab one ILB sooner rather than later, take the 2nd ILB later, and groom Batten, who will be very, very good

 

I'm thinking we take DE, ILB, TE, CB, RT, QB, LT, and OC this year.

 

1-DE: Nick Fairley --In our Simulation Carolina-Denver went Bowers-Peterson. We'll listen to trade-down offers for a 2nd and 4th Rounder. AJ Green is less likely in the mix after his combine today. Newton and Gabbert could be a factor that generates interest. No way we trade a chance at Fairley, though

2-ILB Akeem Ayers --Paea was already gone and it’s way too early for "Baylor Taylor", and we aren't likely taking a nose tackle twice in 2 years

3-TE Stocker QB Ponder, QB Mallett, or TE Stocker are all there—Stocker just outbenched all TE’s at the combine and may not last this far when we update our Big Board. If so, take Ponder here and Julius Thomas in the 5th, who I think is an underrated TE

4-CB Chimdi Chekwa, ILB Owen Marecic, CB Korey Lindsey, or TE Charlie Gantt –best value is Chekwa, then Marecic, who's a throwback lunch pail guy who played both ways

4-RT Orlando Franklin, S Dom DeCicco, RT James Brewer –best value is Franklin

5-QB Ricky Stanzi, FS Ahmad Black TE Julius Thomas, – All are value picks at this point; see RD#3

6-LT Curt Porter, TE Rob Housler, LT Derel Hall –Porter is one of the better run blocking LT’s in the draft

7-OC Ryan Bartholomew, TE Jordan Cameron, TE Andre Smith, CB Mario Butler, OC Linnenkohl, DE David Carter – Hard choice here as I think Cameron's going to make a squad but we need O-line Depth at Center. Bartholomew from Syracuse gets the nod

 

Astro...please comment on these guys:

A couple players you don't even have in the mix in your post that I really like, who've proved to be worthy of a good hard look.

1. Cam Jordan, DE, Cal. The guy's a beast and is a 4 year starter @ DE in a 34 scheme.

2. Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU. Intense and emotional leader, highly productive and a fireplug @ 6'2" 250.

 

I read in another post that Nix isn't a fan of trading down, so what do you think his stance is on trading back up for an additional pick in the second. I truely believe that Luke Stocker has the potential to be one of the best TE's in the NFL and we should make a move to ensure he is a Bill next year. Sheppard (above) is a a rd 3 or 4 pick, so that opens us up to grabbing Stocker, if it's not too early.

[LABills08]

Just because I like saying this in all draft posts, if its not a QB, its Von Miller.

 

And I personally don't think the Bills will take a QB at 3 given the CBA situation.

[RuntheDamnBall]

What if they rate one or two qbs in the top ten of the draft? There is no positon on the field that is more important than the qb position. My point is very simple. When you are in a position to draft a franchise qb and you currently don't have one then you should seize the opportunity. There is never a situation where a good defensive lineman is more impactful than a good starting qb.

I don't think we disagree as much as you think on this. My point is, if they don't think that one of these guys is going to be a good starting QB, or if they have but one MAJOR reservation, it's not a risk worth taking.

 

It's not GREAT DL vs. GREAT QB, in my opinion. It's GREAT DL and rolling with the punches at QB vs. being set back years, and ending up with neither the great DL nor the franchise QB you need.

 

Again, if Newton or Gabbert really give them the value they think they need at No. 3 - and I would say if they have a QB ranked top-ten, he's worthy - then do it. But the absolute goal here, if I may take one occasion to be so Jauron-esque, is to NOT MESS THIS PICK UP.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Let's discuss the possibility of yet another horse in this race.

Astro

If we take a DE in the first round, he needs to be a guy that demands double teams in the 5 technique. I think the number three pick is worth spending on that guy unless there is a franchise qb on the board.

 

I'm assuming the reason that you guys have Jordan more scheme diverse than the other 4-3DT/3-4DE's is that he will be better in space, but I haven't seen any tape on him. With Jordan I only fear the Ngata syndrome where you don't take the bpa because he doesn't fit as well in your scheme. I think maybe Wanny may have some say on this, probably suggesting we will be able to work with the 4-3DT and to take the bpa instead of the scheme guy. If Jordan is flat out better, that's fine, but we can't miss on a DE in the first round, he needs to be a starter day 1.

[Astrobot]

A comment and a question.

 

Marcel Dareus is considered (not only by me) to be "scheme versatile."

 

At Alabama he played in multiple fronts as a 3-technique tackle and a 5-technique end.

 

At 6'3" and 319 pounds (Combine Measurements) he's even big enough to take some snaps at nose tackle.

 

So I don't see why Dareus is not viewed by DrafTek as being versatile.

 

Also, what are your thoughts on JJ Watt?

 

We think Dareus is a DT43 who is the 6th best player on our Big Board. He did play as a tackle and end at Alabama, but as an end, he drops to the 15 spot on our Big Board. I now am thinking Dareus will go before Fairley, and possibly to Denver, so this is all moot.

 

I see Watt as Kerrigan with less upside. Mayock, though, likes him. “He’s a beast. He’s a first-round pick.” he at one time had Watt as the premier 3-4 defensive end in the 2011 class (Cal’s Cameron Jordan and Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward were second and third, respectively). Watt is a RDE in a 4-3 #99 against Ohio St. in the video link here; looks like Kelsay to me!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNTwvuZ3jMs&feature=related

[JohnC]

I don't think we disagree as much as you think on this. My point is, if they don't think that one of these guys is going to be a good starting QB, or if they have but one MAJOR reservation, it's not a risk worth taking.

 

It's not GREAT DL vs. GREAT QB, in my opinion. It's GREAT DL and rolling with the punches at QB vs. being set back years, and ending up with neither the great DL nor the franchise QB you need.

 

Again, if Newton or Gabbert really give them the value they think they need at No. 3 - and I would say if they have a QB ranked top-ten, he's worthy - then do it. But the absolute goal here, if I may take one occasion to be so Jauron-esque, is to NOT MESS THIS PICK UP.

 

R-D-B, We are in accord. I have never advocated taking a qb with the first pick if the organization doesn't think that the qb on the board is the right qb. Where I have some nuanced differences is that there is no sure pick at any position. The Bills have certainly demonstrated that point.

 

Where it is going to be interesting is if the Bills take a player such as Dareus in the first round what do they do if Mallett or Locker is on the board for the second round? There are plenty of scenarios to go through. But my basic contention still remains that until a more talented franchise qb is brought into the fold the Bills won't get past the Jets and Pats in their own division.