San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Recently the scouts have been getting it right, aside from Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell 4 years ago...so far it looks like most teams that took a QB early have had success the last 3 years, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, only Tim Tebow isn't starting. That was the thrust of the Don Banks article which Dave McBride had linked to in a different thread. What Banks doesn't state in the article (and which really contradicts the fact that QB drafting has been better of late) is that there is typically a regression to the mean, or put differently, that "the law of averages is bound to kick in." In other words, the NFL could be entering a period (and purely from a statistical perspective it's actually probable) in which teams are wrong in their evaluations of the top quarterbacks in this year's draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 That was the thrust of the Don Banks article which Dave McBride had linked to in a different thread. What Banks doesn't state in the article (and which really contradicts the fact that QB drafting has been better of late) is that there is typically a regression to the mean, or put differently, that "the law of averages is bound to kick in." In other words, the NFL could be entering a period (and purely from a statistical perspective it's actually probable) in which teams are wrong in their evaluations of the top quarterbacks in this year's draft. Every year there is a different crop of qbs. Just as there are years in which there is a surplus of upper echelon prospects of OTs, DTs, DEs, LBs, WRs etc. The year in which Jim Kelly was taken was a year in which there was a solid group of qbs. Last year the qb field was somewhat barren, with Bradford being the only elite qb. After reading what Chan Gailey has had to say yesterday I'm thinking the Bills will pass on a QB in the first round (I hope so, the defense is just sad), I can't help but think that Gailey might be looking at Ponder in the 3rd round. You guys, and the armchair QB analysis.... Chan Gailey stated that he thinks Fitz did a great job last season, and is going to remain the starter, he also says that he has won playoff games with players that have less talent then Fitz, thats good enough for me What Gailey says publicly means very little? Do you think he is going to tip his hand about his evaluations about the qb prospects? If Gailey thought that Fitz was a mediocre qb do you honestly believe that he is going to publicly state that our current qb sucks? If you want to put so much weight on what CG has said then you also have to include his comments suggesting that if you have an opportuntiy to draft a very talented qb you do so because the opportunities are very limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I really like Gabbert but the Bills have bigger needs.. I really can't justify taking this guy with the number 3 pick.. It's like drafting Spiller, I was floored by his college film but he wasn't a need and so far is a wasted pick! BTW Fitz with his quick release has made the O-line look a lot better than it is... While Fitz is an ok QB, he is not a franchise QB. A franchise QB is THE most important need a team has. So, you're wrong. Taking a QB early in the draft always scares me. It seems like a no brainer when it works, but its devastating when it flops. After 10 years of misery it would be a tough pill to swallow using our #3 on the next Ryan Leaf. I'm not saying Gabbert is going to fail, but it seems like a huge risk that early in the draft. Especially since Gabbert's biggest accomplishment seems to be convincing Andrew Luck to stay in school. I mean that is why Blaine's stock is so high right now. Its a good thing I'm not running a pro draft. Imagine how bad it'll be if dareus or fairley turns into sean Gilbert? You bet!!! The thing is, its really to early to tell if any of this current crop of QB's is going to evolve into an elite QB, need to look at them again after the combine, and their pro days. We all will see their measureables, its the unmeasurables that are most important. work habits, study habits, first one in, last one out type of a guy. Recently the scouts have been getting it right, aside from Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell 4 years ago...so far it looks like most teams that took a QB early have had success the last 3 years, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, only Tim Tebow isn't starting. After reading what Chan Gailey has had to say yesterday I'm thinking the Bills will pass on a QB in the first round (I hope so, the defense is just sad), I can't help but think that Gailey might be looking at Ponder in the 3rd round. You guys, and the armchair QB analysis.... Chan Gailey stated that he thinks Fitz did a great job last season, and is going to remain the starter, he also says that he has won playoff games with players that have less talent then Fitz, thats good enough for me Winning playoff game may be enough for you, but I need a SB win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Nix has said he's going to add two DEs and two MLBs. Not long ago he also said he'd add another QB. He and Gailey seem to be very confident in Fitz and happy with him so, based on Nix's own words, I expect the #3 pick will be LB or DE. However, if Whitner, Wilson, Florence et al are let go, then who knows what becomes the highest priority. In any case, I don't think Nixley believe that QB is a critical need this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bufcomments Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Nix has said he's going to add two DEs and two MLBs. Not long ago he also said he'd add another QB. He and Gailey seem to be very confident in Fitz and happy with him so, based on Nix's own words, I expect the #3 pick will be LB or DE. However, if Whitner, Wilson, Florence et al are let go, then who knows what becomes the highest priority. In any case, I don't think Nixley believe that QB is a critical need this year. I like your post, and I would be shocked if they did not use the first 3 picks this year on Defense. Fitz can hold down the fort for another year, all the guy did was throw for 3000 yds with an suspect Oline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I should have added that Nix says he's going to add safeties as well. Now, he didn't say all those positions would be filled through the draft, and with MLB apparently one area in which the draft is thin, it seems more likely he will be looking for FAs to sign (possibly the same with safety), in which case, DE is looking more and more like the area the Bills will focus on early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 LB Ours were putrid last year. Poz gets hurt all the time. Right now we're counting on Merriman, Moats, and Kelsay at OLB. Yikes. We're 2 or 3 LB's away from not being an embarrassment on defense. Fitz (who I was never a fan of) did a pretty solid jod, and is still young himself. I think Rebound's point was that no team has a bigger need than a franchise QB. Either you have one, or you don't. The teams that do are perennial contenders, and the teams that don't are not. Comparing that with the teams that have elite performers at LB, and it's no contest. In short, I can't think of one team with a franchise QB that isn't a contender to win the Superbowl every year, whereas I'm sure you can name several teams with elite-level LBs that can't sniff the playoffs. Not that your point about Buffalo's LBs is wrong, we do indeed need to upgrade. I just think having an elite QB is more important than having an elite LB corps. That said, I have no idea if any of this year's QBs are the right guy, which is why I don't get paid to draft players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I like your post, and I would be shocked if they did not use the first 3 picks this year on Defense. Fitz can hold down the fort for another year, all the guy did was throw for 3000 yds with an suspect Oline. Yea in the games the bills won, ya know all 4 of them, Fitz avg 200 yds a game wiht 2tds and .75 INTs... awesome i know. He throws for 245, 1.6 TDs and 1.3 INTs when the bills lose.. funny how that plays out? You are missing the point. If the Bills think there is a potential franchise QB they arent gonna hold back from picking him bc Fitz threw for 3000 yards. You know what else Fitz did? threw the saem amount of INTs as rookie sam Bradford, who had a worse team, one less INT than Int machine Jay Cutler. Thats why this guy hasnt been a #1 except for the lowly Bills. Accuracy problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stl Bills Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yea in the games the bills won, ya know all 4 of them, Fitz avg 200 yds a game wiht 2tds and .75 INTs... awesome i know. He throws for 245, 1.6 TDs and 1.3 INTs when the bills lose.. funny how that plays out? You are missing the point. If the Bills think there is a potential franchise QB they arent gonna hold back from picking him bc Fitz threw for 3000 yards. You know what else Fitz did? threw the saem amount of INTs as rookie sam Bradford, who had a worse team, one less INT than Int machine Jay Cutler. Thats why this guy hasnt been a #1 except for the lowly Bills. Accuracy problems. Way to base your argument off of one stat. Fitz played well last year and he's only going to improve with another year under Gailey. You do realize that he threw 7 less ints than did Drew Brees and 2 less than Peyton Manning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 What is the knock on Andy Dalton? Why isn't he being considered up there with Newton or Gabbert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Way to base your argument off of one stat. Fitz played well last year and he's only going to improve with another year under Gailey. You do realize that he threw 7 less ints than did Drew Brees and 2 less than Peyton Manning. Perhaps you should re-read that. Theres clearly more than one stat. Again, you do realize Brees had 4600 yards and 33 tds...oh yea he also went to the playoffs. Manning threw for 4700 and 33 Tds..... For the extra 1700 yards and 10 tds ill take a few more INTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 While Fitz is an ok QB, he is not a franchise QB. A franchise QB is THE most important need a team has. So, you're wrong. Imagine how bad it'll be if dareus or fairley turns into sean Gilbert? Winning playoff game may be enough for you, but I need a SB win First of all, just a winning season would be a nice start.... this team is so far removed from a playoff team its not funny.... Get a grip on reality, at 4-12 no current QB in the league could take this haphazard bunch of misfits to a SB....exactly how many SB's are ya gonna win with a defense last in the NFL against the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Guys, I hear ya, but what if he really WAS then next Ryan...would you take him then? Leaf? If Gailey thought that Fitz was a mediocre qb do you honestly believe that he is going to publicly state that our current qb sucks? Didn't the owner, in so many words, just do this in his last interview? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Perhaps you should re-read that. Theres clearly more than one stat. Again, you do realize Brees had 4600 yards and 33 tds...oh yea he also went to the playoffs. Manning threw for 4700 and 33 Tds..... For the extra 1700 yards and 10 tds ill take a few more INTs. Let Fitz play with a better supporting cast and a full season of play and then take a look at those same numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 If Gailey thought that Fitz was a mediocre qb do you honestly believe that he is going to publicly state that our current qb sucks? Didn't the owner, in so many words, just do this in his last interview? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) Leaf? Didn't the owner, in so many words, just do this in his last interview? He rather candidly did say the Bills needed a better qb. The 92 yr old owner doesn't give a dam what anyone else thinks. Some of the prerogatives of being a boss and being in your 90s is doing what you want to do and saying what you want to say. In this case the mercurial owner is making sense. And that is a rarity. Edited February 25, 2011 by JohnC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Perhaps you should re-read that. Theres clearly more than one stat. Again, you do realize Brees had 4600 yards and 33 tds...oh yea he also went to the playoffs. Manning threw for 4700 and 33 Tds..... For the extra 1700 yards and 10 tds ill take a few more INTs. How do you think both would do playing behind our line and with our defense on the field for 70% of the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The point: why even ask if the team's HC is really going to publically say his QB sucks if the owner already said as much. How do you think both would do playing behind our line and with our defense on the field for 70% of the game? Bills TOP 28:36. Minute less than pats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 He rather candidly did say the Bills needed a better qb. The 92 yr old owner doesn't give a dam what anyone else thinks. Some of the prerogatives of being a boss and being in your 90s is doing what you want to do and saying what you want to say. In this case the mercurial owner is making sense. And that is a rarity. RW also stated that they wouldn't reach for a QB just to take one, that they will draft the best player, whomever that may be. After listening to Gaileys latest comments I'm fairly confidant the Bills will go defense with that #3...you guys can continue dig up conspiracy theories thru all the smoke Chan Gailey is blowing every time he speaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyjustbcuz Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 (edited) I really like Gabbert but the Bills have bigger needs.. I really can't justify taking this guy with the number 3 pick.. It's like drafting Spiller, I was floored by his college film but he wasn't a need and so far is a wasted pick! BTW Fitz with his quick release has made the O-line look a lot better than it is... Yeah, I agree with you..DT/DE/LB/OT all needs..but, if we can trade down to #5-9 pick and pick up at least an extra 2nd rounder then I would be fine with picking B. Gabbert, and then having #34 and #36-40th pick in the draft to select a DT & either a DE or OT. I think if Fairley and Bowers are both gone by our pick we should strongly consider trading down slightly. I think if they moved down to #5 though that they would select Von Miller,(Or M.Dareus).. but that perspective could change if they feel positive about S. Merriman's recovery.....What do you guys think??? Edited February 25, 2011 by tonyjustbcuz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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