A Couple of Stats

[The Big Cat]

In his time with the Bills (46 games) Willis McGahee had zero receiving touch downs.

 

Lee Evans trails Eric Moulds by 9 TD's for second overall in Bills franchise history (39 to 48 right now).

• I think Evans passes and/or ties Moulds this year. He's never been more poised for a breakout season.
  
• Evans and Moulds both sit behind A. Reed (86, HA!).
  
• Is Chan the man? Evans performance this year will be a true indication.
  

 

Trent's career y/g is deplorable (171.8).

• IMO, Trent's gotta crack the 200/g mark for us to be consistently competitive.
  
• I think if Gailey gets Edwards and Evans on the same page, they're good for one 50+ play a game.
  

 

In 2009, The Bills rush attack achieved 4.4 yards per carry.

• 4.4 y/c was good enough for 8th in the league, just behind NYJ and NO.
  
• They accomplished this average with a season long of 47, good for 26th in the league.
  
• That run came in week 14 against KC, it was Marshawn.
  
• League average long run was 61.
  
• We had only 12 runs go for over 20 yards, with only 2 of those eclipsing the 40 mark (12/2)*
  

The 7 teams ahead of us had, the following long runs last year:

1. Tennessee (5.2 p/c), 91 long (1st) (24/8)*
   
2. Dallas (4.8 p/c), 66 long (13th) (14/5)
   
3. Carolina (4.8 p/c), 77 long (T5th) (19/6)
   
4. Baltimore (4.7 p/c), 77 long (T5st) (16/4)
   
5. New Orleans (4.5 p/c), 55 long (24th) (14/2)
   
6. New York Jets (4.5 p/c), 71 long (T9th) (19/3)
   
7. Jacksonville (4.5 p/c), 80 long (3rd) (12/3)
   

• The Bills finished 21st in the league in attempts (424, only one carry per game below league average, but below nonetheless)
  
• This means they popped a run longer than 20 yards every 35 attempts, and peaked 40 once every 212 carries. (35/212)
  

Compare that to:

1. Tennessee 499 att (20.7/62.4)
   
2. Dallas 436 att (31/87)
   
3. Carolina 525 att (27.6/87.5)
   
4. Baltimore 468 att (29.5/117)
   
5. New Orleans 468 att (33.4/234)
   
6. New York Jets 607 att (31.9/202.3)
   
7. Jacksonville 447 att (39.8/149)
   

 

Welcome to Buffalo, CJ Spiller. Get us some big plays, win us at least two games.

[The Big Cat]

In his time with the Bills (46 games) Willis McGahee had zero receiving touch downs.

 

Lee Evans trails Eric Moulds by 9 TD's for second overall in Bills franchise history (39 to 48 right now).

• I think Evans passes and/or ties Moulds this year. He's never been more poised for a breakout season.
  
• Evans and Moulds both sit behind A. Reed (86, HA!).
  
• Is Chan the man? Evans performance this year will be a true indication.
  

 

Trent's career y/g is deplorable (171.8).

• IMO, Trent's gotta crack the 200/g mark for us to be consistently competitive.
  
• I think if Gailey gets Edwards and Evans on the same page, they're good for one 50+ play a game.
  

 

In 2009, The Bills rush attack achieved 4.4 yards per carry.

• 4.4 y/c was good enough for 8th in the league, just behind NYJ and NO.
  
• They accomplished this average with a season long of 47, good for 26th in the league.
  
• That run came in week 14 against KC, it was Marshawn.
  
• League average long run was 61.
  
• We had only 12 runs go for over 20 yards, with only 2 of those eclipsing the 40 mark (12/2)*
  

The 7 teams ahead of us had, the following long runs last year:

1. Tennessee (5.2 p/c), 91 long (1st) (24/8)*
   
2. Dallas (4.8 p/c), 66 long (13th) (14/5)
   
3. Carolina (4.8 p/c), 77 long (T5th) (19/6)
   
4. Baltimore (4.7 p/c), 77 long (T5st) (16/4)
   
5. New Orleans (4.5 p/c), 55 long (24th) (14/2)
   
6. New York Jets (4.5 p/c), 71 long (T9th) (19/3)
   
7. Jacksonville (4.5 p/c), 80 long (3rd) (12/3)
   

• The Bills finished 21st in the league in attempts (424, only one carry per game below league average, but below nonetheless)
  
• This means they popped a run longer than 20 yards every 35 attempts, and peaked 40 once every 212 carries. (35/212)
  

Compare that to:

1. Tennessee 499 att (20.7/62.4)
   
2. Dallas 436 att (31/87)
   
3. Carolina 525 att (27.6/87.5)
   
4. Baltimore 468 att (29.5/117)
   
5. New Orleans 468 att (33.4/234)
   
6. New York Jets 607 att (31.9/202.3)
   
7. Jacksonville 447 att (39.8/149)
   

 

Welcome to Buffalo, CJ Spiller. Get us some big plays, win us at least two games.

 

Sheesh. Last time I hop on profootballreference when I'm drunk...

[dollars 2 donuts]

That is some pretty interesting stuff, BC, thank you.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Good stuff, BC.

 

As stated by Tasker in last week's broadcast, the Bills led the league in % of runs over 4 yards…48%.

 

They were a very effective running team.

 

This in spite of the fact that other teams were absolutely unconcerned about our passing attack.

 

We will be one of the top running teams this year with the addition of CJ Spiller. His explosiveness is just what this running game and offense need.

[BuffaloBill]

Sheesh. Last time I hop on profootballreference when I'm drunk...

 

 

At least you sober up quickly

[PS 56]

Excellent stats BC. It will be interesting to see how the Bills do this year with the addition of Spiller and Bell we are running back heavy. If we get a minimal improvement in our passing game and offensive line we should see a significant gain in yards per carry. If we provide a minimum of a pass threat that can only help us as well.

[flopagamo]

Found something else in there: In 2009 Buffalo was dead last in the NFL in # of offensive plays, and dead last in # of first downs. I can't find Time of Possession stats...

[billsfan_34]

In his time with the Bills (46 games) Willis McGahee had zero receiving touch downs.

 

Lee Evans trails Eric Moulds by 9 TD's for second overall in Bills franchise history (39 to 48 right now).

• I think Evans passes and/or ties Moulds this year. He's never been more poised for a breakout season.
  
• Evans and Moulds both sit behind A. Reed (86, HA!).
  
• Is Chan the man? Evans performance this year will be a true indication.
  

 

Trent's career y/g is deplorable (171.8).

• IMO, Trent's gotta crack the 200/g mark for us to be consistently competitive.
  
• I think if Gailey gets Edwards and Evans on the same page, they're good for one 50+ play a game.
  

 

In 2009, The Bills rush attack achieved 4.4 yards per carry.

• 4.4 y/c was good enough for 8th in the league, just behind NYJ and NO.
  
• They accomplished this average with a season long of 47, good for 26th in the league.
  
• That run came in week 14 against KC, it was Marshawn.
  
• League average long run was 61.
  
• We had only 12 runs go for over 20 yards, with only 2 of those eclipsing the 40 mark (12/2)*
  

The 7 teams ahead of us had, the following long runs last year:

1. Tennessee (5.2 p/c), 91 long (1st) (24/8)*
   
2. Dallas (4.8 p/c), 66 long (13th) (14/5)
   
3. Carolina (4.8 p/c), 77 long (T5th) (19/6)
   
4. Baltimore (4.7 p/c), 77 long (T5st) (16/4)
   
5. New Orleans (4.5 p/c), 55 long (24th) (14/2)
   
6. New York Jets (4.5 p/c), 71 long (T9th) (19/3)
   
7. Jacksonville (4.5 p/c), 80 long (3rd) (12/3)
   

• The Bills finished 21st in the league in attempts (424, only one carry per game below league average, but below nonetheless)
  
• This means they popped a run longer than 20 yards every 35 attempts, and peaked 40 once every 212 carries. (35/212)
  

Compare that to:

1. Tennessee 499 att (20.7/62.4)
   
2. Dallas 436 att (31/87)
   
3. Carolina 525 att (27.6/87.5)
   
4. Baltimore 468 att (29.5/117)
   
5. New Orleans 468 att (33.4/234)
   
6. New York Jets 607 att (31.9/202.3)
   
7. Jacksonville 447 att (39.8/149)
   

 

Welcome to Buffalo, CJ Spiller. Get us some big plays, win us at least two games.

Thanks for the info!!!!

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

 

Trent's career y/g is deplorable (171.8).

• IMO, Trent's gotta crack the 200/g mark for us to be consistently competitive.
  
• I think if Gailey gets Edwards and Evans on the same page, they're good for one 50+ play a game.
  

The y/g stat is skewed slightly as it includes games that Edwards played only spot duty in (2009: NYJ & NE, 2008: Ari), which he had a total of 10 attempts and 60 yds in. Revised without these games his career y/g is still not good at roughly 187 yards per game but thought I'd note the correction.

 

Another interesting stat is his 6.7 yards per attempt, more than other recent Bills QBs Drew Bledsoe (6.6) and JP Losman (6.6) and the anointed QBs in the AFC East Chad Henne (6.4) and Mark Sanchez (also 6.7).

Edited August 26, 2010 by Baby Joe Mesi

[flopagamo]

The Bills also led the league in sideline blank stares and un-adjusted game plans last year. (until Perry Fewell took over, anyway)

 

Lots of 3rd down stops -- that's what we need.

[The Big Cat]

Good stuff, BC.

 

As stated by Tasker in last week's broadcast, the Bills led the league in % of runs over 4 yards…48%.

 

They were a very effective running team.

 

This in spite of the fact that other teams were absolutely unconcerned about our passing attack.

 

We will be one of the top running teams this year with the addition of CJ Spiller. His explosiveness is just what this running game and offense need.

 

I agree. But looking back over the orgy of numbers I vomm'd all over TSW last night, I think the moral of the story is: we need to make big plays.

 

Lee needs to get his. He had 7 TD's last year, and with his involvement in the offense seemingly amplified going into week one, I gotta believe this year he pulls down double digit TD's for the first time in his career. And since so many of his contributions--esp TD--come from getting behind the defense, more TD's for Lee will inevitably = more big plays, and visa versa.

 

And then there's the run game. CJ may have done himself a disservice setting the bar so high with that sick run against Indy. But if we can safely rely on plays like that every once in a while, this offense WILL score points. PRAISE GOD!

 

In 2009, The Bills scored 20 points or more in only five games. Five games. They won four of them, the only loss was the 25-24 NE loss in week 1.

 

The league average for ppg was 22. We averaged 16 ppg, or one touchdown less. One touchdown more per game would have given us four extra wins in 2009.

 

I guess this is why I get sore when people insist we'll be ****ty this year. In spite of all last year's turmoils--injuries, firing the HC, firing the OC, firing the LT--all that ****, and one more TD per game, scoring at the league average, and we finish 10-6.

 

Granted, we had an extremely easy schedule last year, a luxury we don't have in 2010, but I actually believe we have a better team. If we can reign our talents, and actually scheme on game day like a professional coach would, there's no reason to believe we won't, at the very least, be competitive.

 

Finally, you factor in our DB's capability of preventing big plays, and big plays from our offense become that much more effective.

 

It's all about BIG PLAYS! WE MUST MAKE BIG PLAYS!

Edited August 26, 2010 by The Big Cat

[ganesh]

Good stuff, BC.

 

As stated by Tasker in last week's broadcast, the Bills led the league in % of runs over 4 yards…48%.

 

They were a very effective running team.

 

This in spite of the fact that other teams were absolutely unconcerned about our passing attack.

 

We will be one of the top running teams this year with the addition of CJ Spiller. His explosiveness is just what this running game and offense need.

 

We may have been effective in moving the chains in the run game, but the running game scored very few TDs. They could not punch it in in the short goal situations. Lack of production from Lynch affected this area grossly.

[K-9]

It's ALL about staying in manageable down/distance situations. If you don't, defense dictates the play, and your offense will fail more often than not in the absence of playmakers at key positions. We have a couple in Spiller and Evans but unless our QB suddenly becomes a playmaker, I think we're in for more of the same.

 

That said, I'm hoping Chan can make up for lack of QB talent in the form of schemes to compensate. But if you're constantly in 2nd/3rd and long situations, there's only so much a coach can do.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thebandit27]

But how can this be? Some of this board's most incorrigible talking heads had me convinced that absolutely zero offensive production can occur without a great offensive line. This must be a sham!

 

Seriously though, great job diving in to the numbers...they tell quite the story. In my opinion, this goes to show that a solid stable of running backs can get the job done with less-than-mediocre blocking in the running game. Throw Spiller into the mix, along with a healthier OL in general, and we could be looking at a very solid running game.

 

Now if we can just get some quality play from the QB position...

[Mickey]

Good stuff, BC.

 

As stated by Tasker in last week's broadcast, the Bills led the league in % of runs over 4 yards…48%.

 

They were a very effective running team.

 

This in spite of the fact that other teams were absolutely unconcerned about our passing attack.

 

We will be one of the top running teams this year with the addition of CJ Spiller. His explosiveness is just what this running game and offense need.

I would like to know more about that "runs over 4 yards stat before I can have faith in it as demonstrating that we were a good running team.

For example, if we have 4 runs and two of them gain 4 yards and the other two lose 4 yards, would that stat read that 50% of our runs

were over 4 yards? If so, then it is a pretty meaningless stat.

Edited August 26, 2010 by Mickey

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

I would like to know more about that "runs over 4 yards stat before I can have faith in it as demonstrating that we were a good running team.

For example, if we have 4 runs and two of them gain 4 yards and the other two lose 4 yards, would that stat read that 50% of our runs

were over 4 yards? If so, then it is a pretty meaningless stat.

 

That is true, but since the stats above also included the overall average per carry (which in your example would only be 2 ypc), that stat is far from meaningless. It shows me, along with the relatively low number of long runs, that the Bills came by their rushing average with a lot of runs in the 4-10 yard range. One would like to think that would improve if the defense does not have so many players close to the line because of the lack of a passing game... but that remains to be seen.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Good stuff, BC.

 

As stated by Tasker in last week's broadcast, the Bills led the league in % of runs over 4 yards…48%.

 

They were a very effective running team.

 

This in spite of the fact that other teams were absolutely unconcerned about our passing attack.

 

We will be one of the top running teams this year with the addition of CJ Spiller. His explosiveness is just what this running game and offense need.

I agree. But looking back over the orgy of numbers I vomm'd all over TSW last night, I think the moral of the story is: we need to make big plays.

 

It's all about BIG PLAYS! WE MUST MAKE BIG PLAYS!

I would like to know more about that "runs over 4 yards stat before I can have faith in it as demonstrating that we were a good running team.

For example, if we have 4 runs and two of them gain 4 yards and the other two lose 4 yards, would that stat read that 50% of our runs

were over 4 yards? If so, then it is a pretty meaningless stat.

That is true, but since the stats above also included the overall average per carry (which in your example would only be 2 ypc), that stat is far from meaningless. It shows me, along with the relatively low number of long runs, that the Bills came by their rushing average with a lot of runs in the 4-10 yard range. One would like to think that would improve if the defense does not have so many players close to the line because of the lack of a passing game... but that remains to be seen.

MIckey, as RJ states, it is an important stat only in the context of other stats. Look at the Bills average yards per carry. Look at their longest runs.

 

If you plotted all the Bills runs on a graph, the curve would be a bell curve with a very steep slope both up and down. The range for the vast majority of their runs would be fairly narrow…the curve would be described more or less as a normal distribution. I'm probably not explaining this well but basically the Bills were a very consistent running team.

 

They generally didn't have the sort of game which you describe…which CJ Spiller had against the Colts last week--with losses mixed with gains. If it was Lynch and Jackson running against Indy, there likely would have been fewer runs for negative yardage and fewer positive long runs.

 

These are all generalizations so hopefully someone doesn't misconstrue what I'm saying.

[flomoe]

MIckey, as RJ states, it is an important stat only in the context of other stats. Look at the Bills average yards per carry. Look at their longest runs.

 

If you plotted all the Bills runs on a graph, the curve would be a bell curve with a very steep slope both up and down. The range for the vast majority of their runs would be fairly narrow…the curve would be described more or less as a normal distribution. I'm probably not explaining this well but basically the Bills were a very consistent running team.

 

They generally didn't have the sort of game which you describe…which CJ Spiller had against the Colts last week--with losses mixed with gains. If it was Lynch and Jackson running against Indy, there likely would have been fewer runs for negative yardage and fewer positive long runs.

 

These are all generalizations so hopefully someone doesn't misconstrue what I'm saying.

 

 

What?

 

Actually, you make perfect sense here. If everyone thinks back, the Bills did a pretty decent job running the ball almost every game last year, WHEN Jackson was running. He put up some decent numbers but nothing flashy. 6 here, 3 there, another 4 there and then maybe a no gain or a 1 yarder. Both FJ and ML are very average runners when it comes to consistency. Spiller on the other hand, has the ability to take it to the house on any given play. Sure, he might get stopped at the line or for a gain of 1 or 2 on a lot of plays but he is also going to snap off a 50+ yarder possibly every 10-15 touches or so.

 

This is where the Bills offense opens up. There are a lot of people that questioned the Spiller pick but the simplicity of it jumps out. If he is on the field for 75% of the offensive plays, that means that the defenses will be accounting for him no matter where he is lined up. If he gets 10-15 carries per game, the odds are that he will have a big gainer once a game just from the RB position. That completely changes the numbers overall and gives the offense a completely different identity, sans the QB position.

 

IMO, a very well trained monkey might be able to run the O with the running games potential. Don't be surprised to see a very strategic running attack every game with a lot more home run throws per game. We might not have the QB to get it there but it will be spreading out the D's.