Bills' Defense - Better than we think?

[thebandit27]

I had some down time the other day, and I decided to do a little inside-the-numbers research using footballoutsiders.com. In so doing, I happened upon their Drive Stats for the 2009 season, and it turned out to be quite the revelation.

 

Before I get into the numbers, I’d like to point out that these stats—unlike most FO stats—have no “intelligence” to them; they are strictly numbers-based and have not been adjusted for strength of schedule/opponent etc.

 

So here’s what I discovered. In 2009, Buffalo’s defense performed surprisingly well, despite what many of us may have believed. Let’s first remember that the purposed of the defense is to get the ball back for the offense without giving up points. Looking at the numbers, Buffalo’s defense actually did a better-than-average job of that in 2009. Here’s a direct link to the drive stats that FO publishes:

 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

 

As you’ll notice, the Bills’ defense was in the top half of the league in seven of the nine categories: yards/drive allowed (13), points/drive allowed (12), TDs/drive allowed (12), punts/drive forced (16), turnovers/drive forced (6), INTs/drive forced (2), and opponents’ drive success rate allowed (14). The biggest area of deficiency was fumbles/drive forced, in which the team ranked dead last. I find most of this very impressive, considering how poorly the offense performed. I’d wager (since I was unable to find the stats on time of possession differential) that Buffalo’s offense was in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of differential between offensive and defensive plays run.

 

The point I’m making with these numbers is this: I believe Buffalo’s defense has a chance to be very good this season. I’m not saying average, I’m not even saying good; I’m going out on a limb and saying that they can be VERY good.

 

I think most would agree that the strength of the defense is the secondary, which returns in tact (and likely with a healthy McKelvin). The deficiencies were the DL and LBs, both of which received an influx of talent via FA and/or the draft. While I understand that a scheme change will undoubtedly have an impact on performance, I think that the defensive performance from last season certainly gives the team something to build upon. If the team can establish a steady pass rush (despite most likely losing their best pass rusher) and the new-look defensive front of Stroud, Edwards, Williams, Johnson, Carrington, and Troup can pick up their new assignments quickly, this team could be looking at a top-tier defense.

 

I now welcome your comments…

[Jerry Jabber]

I had some down time the other day, and I decided to do a little inside-the-numbers research using footballoutsiders.com. In so doing, I happened upon their Drive Stats for the 2009 season, and it turned out to be quite the revelation.

 

Before I get into the numbers, I’d like to point out that these stats—unlike most FO stats—have no “intelligence” to them; they are strictly numbers-based and have not been adjusted for strength of schedule/opponent etc.

 

So here’s what I discovered. In 2009, Buffalo’s defense performed surprisingly well, despite what many of us may have believed. Let’s first remember that the purposed of the defense is to get the ball back for the offense without giving up points. Looking at the numbers, Buffalo’s defense actually did a better-than-average job of that in 2009. Here’s a direct link to the drive stats that FO publishes:

 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

 

As you’ll notice, the Bills’ defense was in the top half of the league in seven of the nine categories: yards/drive allowed (13), points/drive allowed (12), TDs/drive allowed (12), punts/drive forced (16), turnovers/drive forced (6), INTs/drive forced (2), and opponents’ drive success rate allowed (14). The biggest area of deficiency was fumbles/drive forced, in which the team ranked dead last. I find most of this very impressive, considering how poorly the offense performed. I’d wager (since I was unable to find the stats on time of possession differential) that Buffalo’s offense was in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of differential between offensive and defensive plays run.

 

The point I’m making with these numbers is this: I believe Buffalo’s defense has a chance to be very good this season. I’m not saying average, I’m not even saying good; I’m going out on a limb and saying that they can be VERY good.

 

I think most would agree that the strength of the defense is the secondary, which returns in tact (and likely with a healthy McKelvin). The deficiencies were the DL and LBs, both of which received an influx of talent via FA and/or the draft. While I understand that a scheme change will undoubtedly have an impact on performance, I think that the defensive performance from last season certainly gives the team something to build upon. If the team can establish a steady pass rush (despite most likely losing their best pass rusher) and the new-look defensive front of Stroud, Edwards, Williams, Johnson, Carrington, and Troup can pick up their new assignments quickly, this team could be looking at a top-tier defense.

 

I now welcome your comments…

 

I agree. The Bills had the 2nd best pass defense last season, but had the 30th ranked run defense. Getting bigger in the front 7 will help the run defense this season. The pass rush will be the biggest question going into the season on defense. I know there will be an adjustment period with installing a new defense, but I can see the defense finishing in the top 15 at the end of the season.

[BuffaloBill]

Great Post. It is hard to argue that the defense was the "problem area" for the team last year (or even the previous year). Hidden in the stats is also the fact that the Bills D spent more time on the field. I would also tend to believe (though I do not have facts to support) that the lack of production from the O led to other teams having generally favorable field position.

[yungmack]

I had some down time the other day, and I decided to do a little inside-the-numbers research using footballoutsiders.com. In so doing, I happened upon their Drive Stats for the 2009 season, and it turned out to be quite the revelation.

 

Before I get into the numbers, I’d like to point out that these stats—unlike most FO stats—have no “intelligence” to them; they are strictly numbers-based and have not been adjusted for strength of schedule/opponent etc.

 

So here’s what I discovered. In 2009, Buffalo’s defense performed surprisingly well, despite what many of us may have believed. Let’s first remember that the purposed of the defense is to get the ball back for the offense without giving up points. Looking at the numbers, Buffalo’s defense actually did a better-than-average job of that in 2009. Here’s a direct link to the drive stats that FO publishes:

 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

 

As you’ll notice, the Bills’ defense was in the top half of the league in seven of the nine categories: yards/drive allowed (13), points/drive allowed (12), TDs/drive allowed (12), punts/drive forced (16), turnovers/drive forced (6), INTs/drive forced (2), and opponents’ drive success rate allowed (14). The biggest area of deficiency was fumbles/drive forced, in which the team ranked dead last. I find most of this very impressive, considering how poorly the offense performed. I’d wager (since I was unable to find the stats on time of possession differential) that Buffalo’s offense was in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of differential between offensive and defensive plays run.

 

The point I’m making with these numbers is this: I believe Buffalo’s defense has a chance to be very good this season. I’m not saying average, I’m not even saying good; I’m going out on a limb and saying that they can be VERY good.

 

I think most would agree that the strength of the defense is the secondary, which returns in tact (and likely with a healthy McKelvin). The deficiencies were the DL and LBs, both of which received an influx of talent via FA and/or the draft. While I understand that a scheme change will undoubtedly have an impact on performance, I think that the defensive performance from last season certainly gives the team something to build upon. If the team can establish a steady pass rush (despite most likely losing their best pass rusher) and the new-look defensive front of Stroud, Edwards, Williams, Johnson, Carrington, and Troup can pick up their new assignments quickly, this team could be looking at a top-tier defense.

 

I now welcome your comments…

Thanks for the research. One area of your work that goes against my admittedly less-than-perfect memory is that the D often had difficulty getting off the field, giving up way to many third-and-long first downs. Are you saying that this was not the case?

 

I agree with your feeling that the Bills are going to be a very good D this year but with one big IF. That is, if they can comfortably execute in the 3-4 by the start of the season. It's a fairly big change in terms of personnel, attitude, assignments and position/assignment.

[johnnychemo]

While I would agree that 3rd-and-long was a problem, the defense had to be essentially perfect with the anemic offensive output. A potent (or even less impotent) offense would have put a little more pressure on opposing offenses and taken a little off the defense.

[thebandit27]

Thanks for the research. One area of your work that goes against my admittedly less-than-perfect memory is that the D often had difficulty getting off the field, giving up way to many third-and-long first downs. Are you saying that this was not the case?

I agree with your feeling that the Bills are going to be a very good D this year but with one big IF. That is, if they can comfortably execute in the 3-4 by the start of the season. It's a fairly big change in terms of personnel, attitude, assignments and position/assignment.

 

No problem, and good point....a point that I was able to verify on NFL.com

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?sea...mp;d-447263-n=1

 

According to this, Buffalo's defense was able to stop opponents on only 40% of 3rd downs, which ranked 24th in the league. Part of that had to do with the fact that Buffalo's defense faced the most 3rd down attempts in the league (240), which is (I believe) a function of the fact that Buffalo's defense faced the most plays from scrimmage overall in the league (1,086). Nevertheless, they do need to get better on 3rd downs.

 

One other stat that jumped out at me from NFL.com: Buffalo finished 2009 with a yards-per-play-allowed of 5.0, which is tied for 5th in the NFL. Pretty darn good for a team that faced the most plays in the league.

[bourbonboy]

Thanks for the research. One area of your work that goes against my admittedly less-than-perfect memory is that the D often had difficulty getting off the field...

 

Particularly in the 3rd and 4th quarters - they basically ran out of gas because the O couldn't keep the ball long enough. Seriously, I wonder how much better our D stats would've been based on the first 2 or 3 quarters alone....the 4th quarter is where we always got run-gouged

[Thurman#1]

I had some down time the other day, and I decided to do a little inside-the-numbers research using footballoutsiders.com. In so doing, I happened upon their Drive Stats for the 2009 season, and it turned out to be quite the revelation.

 

Before I get into the numbers, I’d like to point out that these stats—unlike most FO stats—have no “intelligence” to them; they are strictly numbers-based and have not been adjusted for strength of schedule/opponent etc.

 

So here’s what I discovered. In 2009, Buffalo’s defense performed surprisingly well, despite what many of us may have believed. Let’s first remember that the purposed of the defense is to get the ball back for the offense without giving up points. Looking at the numbers, Buffalo’s defense actually did a better-than-average job of that in 2009. Here’s a direct link to the drive stats that FO publishes:

 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

 

As you’ll notice, the Bills’ defense was in the top half of the league in seven of the nine categories: yards/drive allowed (13), points/drive allowed (12), TDs/drive allowed (12), punts/drive forced (16), turnovers/drive forced (6), INTs/drive forced (2), and opponents’ drive success rate allowed (14). The biggest area of deficiency was fumbles/drive forced, in which the team ranked dead last. I find most of this very impressive, considering how poorly the offense performed. I’d wager (since I was unable to find the stats on time of possession differential) that Buffalo’s offense was in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of differential between offensive and defensive plays run.

 

The point I’m making with these numbers is this: I believe Buffalo’s defense has a chance to be very good this season. I’m not saying average, I’m not even saying good; I’m going out on a limb and saying that they can be VERY good.

 

I think most would agree that the strength of the defense is the secondary, which returns in tact (and likely with a healthy McKelvin). The deficiencies were the DL and LBs, both of which received an influx of talent via FA and/or the draft. While I understand that a scheme change will undoubtedly have an impact on performance, I think that the defensive performance from last season certainly gives the team something to build upon. If the team can establish a steady pass rush (despite most likely losing their best pass rusher) and the new-look defensive front of Stroud, Edwards, Williams, Johnson, Carrington, and Troup can pick up their new assignments quickly, this team could be looking at a top-tier defense.

 

I now welcome your comments…

 

 

 

This is what the stats of bend but don't break defenses look like. And yeah, the Bills defense wasn't horrible. They also weren't good. They were average, maybe even a smidge above average, but wore out near the end.

 

Up to this point, your post supports the common wisdom and uses stats to do so. Great.

 

But then you somehow use that to say that they could be great. How? Why? What would make you think that a defense that was slightly better than average last year but is losing it's best sacker (Schobel), changing to a scheme which will force many of the players (Kelsay, Maybin, Stroud, Spencer Johnson) to change position, force everyone to learn a new system, require different athletic and movement skills and even body types of the guys who aren't switching position, not to mention changing the most important positions (MLB and RDE in the 4 - 3 versus NT and ROLB in the 3 - 4) from spots where we have guys with experience and talent (Poz and our best player, Schobel) to guys with either no experience (Troup and whoever ends up playing ROLB - Maybin? A rookie?) or to guys who physically fitted the job description of their old position to a T but just don't fit the template at their new position (Kyle Williams) ... why would you think that would cause improvements in the first year?

 

I think we both know the answer to that one. Blind hope. Because there certainly was no logic in your assumption. We were better than some thought last year (true) so we will be really really good this year despite huge changes and massive player to position misfits (hunh?). There is no logic. Only blind hope.

 

Good luck with that. It would certainly be a cheerful thing.

[Thurman#1]

No problem, and good point....a point that I was able to verify on NFL.com

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?sea...mp;d-447263-n=1

 

According to this, Buffalo's defense was able to stop opponents on only 40% of 3rd downs, which ranked 24th in the league. Part of that had to do with the fact that Buffalo's defense faced the most 3rd down attempts in the league (240), which is (I believe) a function of the fact that Buffalo's defense faced the most plays from scrimmage overall in the league (1,086). Nevertheless, they do need to get better on 3rd downs.

 

One other stat that jumped out at me from NFL.com: Buffalo finished 2009 with a yards-per-play-allowed of 5.0, which is tied for 5th in the NFL. Pretty darn good for a team that faced the most plays in the league.

 

 

 

That most likely had a lot to do with the fact that people ran against us more than they passed, because we were solid against the pass and crappy against the run. Runs don't make as much per play, so our yards per play would drop without us actually getting better at all.

 

Teams ran only 501 passes at us in 1086 plays from scrimmage. That's why we allowed less per play than most. Nothing to be proud of there. We allowed 6.0 YPA on pass plays, second-best in the league. We also allowed 4.7 YPC on run plays, third-WORST in the league, tied with another team for 30th out of 32. No wonder they ran on us more than they passed, and because they did that, no wonder we allowed less yardage per play than most teams.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Sorry, but we don't have the pass rushers to elevate this D to anything above mediocre. Schobel's gone, Kelsay is Kelsay, and Maybin and Ellis look to be busts. The rest of the guys on the squad aren't capable of anything more than 2-3 sacks a season. Maybe this Antonio Coleman character can live up to his internet message board hype? The problem, of course, is that NFL teams don't ever let quality pass rushers go, so you really need to draft your own to compete. Unfortunately, the Bills aren't very good at that.

[Kelly the Dog]

That most likely had a lot to do with the fact that people ran against us more than they passed, because we were solid against the pass and crappy against the run. Runs don't make as much per play, so our yards per play would drop without us actually getting better at all.

In theory, that is true. But these stats he listed above suggest that the defense overall, against both run and pass together, was pretty decent, especially considering our criminally inept offense -- "yards/drive allowed (13), points/drive allowed (12), TDs/drive allowed (12), punts/drive forced (16), turnovers/drive forced (6)"

[Coach55]

The more telling thing is how inept our offense is. Based on these statistics, we are

- 30th in Yds/Drive

- 26th in Pts/Drive

- 28th in TDs/Drive

- 27th in Punts/Drive

- 31st in Drive Success Rate

 

This is despite the fact we were 10th in average drive start.

[Thurman#1]

In theory, that is true. But these stats he listed above suggest that the defense overall, against both run and pass together, was pretty decent, especially considering our criminally inept offense -- "yards/drive allowed (13), points/drive allowed (12), TDs/drive allowed (12), punts/drive forced (16), turnovers/drive forced (6)"

 

 

 

And I didn't disagree. Our defense was pretty decent.

 

But we're switching to a new one, which requires different kinds of personnel.

 

And our best pass rusher is retiring and nobody looks able to replace him. Remember how our sack total looked in 2008, the last year Schobel didn't play much?

[thebandit27]

This is what the stats of bend but don't break defenses look like. And yeah, the Bills defense wasn't horrible. They also weren't good. They were average, maybe even a smidge above average, but wore out near the end.

 

Up to this point, your post supports the common wisdom and uses stats to do so. Great.

 

But then you somehow use that to say that they could be great. How? Why? What would make you think that a defense that was slightly better than average last year but is losing it's best sacker (Schobel), changing to a scheme which will force many of the players (Kelsay, Maybin, Stroud, Spencer Johnson) to change position, force everyone to learn a new system, require different athletic and movement skills and even body types of the guys who aren't switching position, not to mention changing the most important positions (MLB and RDE in the 4 - 3 versus NT and ROLB in the 3 - 4) from spots where we have guys with experience and talent (Poz and our best player, Schobel) to guys with either no experience (Troup and whoever ends up playing ROLB - Maybin? A rookie?) or to guys who physically fitted the job description of their old position to a T but just don't fit the template at their new position (Kyle Williams) ... why would you think that would cause improvements in the first year?

 

I think we both know the answer to that one. Blind hope. Because there certainly was no logic in your assumption. We were better than some thought last year (true) so we will be really really good this year despite huge changes and massive player to position misfits (hunh?). There is no logic. Only blind hope.

 

Good luck with that. It would certainly be a cheerful thing.

 

As much as I appreciate your critique, there is far more to it than blind hope. Like what, you ask? Let's see:

 

- Addition of quality front seven starters like Dwan Edwards and Andra Davis, both of whom have proven themselves in the 3-4 scheme

- Addition of young front seven talent like Torell Troup and Alex Carrington (even throw in Moats and Batten, depending on how much you trust Buddy Nix's ability to scout players)

- New coaching staff, which features a 3-4 instructor like George Edwards, who's had success in other NFL programs like Miami

- A better conditioned team, starting with guys like Marcus Stroud losing 15 lbs in the off-season

- A healthier team, with players like Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee returning to full health

- A more experienced team, with players like Jairus Byrd and George Wilson coming into their own

 

Also, as I've pointed out to many a poster on this board, there's no reason to think that Kyle Williams can't play NT in a 3-4. He plays with excellent leverage and doesn't need to add any weight, regardless of what the stereotype on this board may tell you. Players like Kelly Gregg of Baltimore and Jay Ratliff of Dallas play the nose successfully at under 300 lbs. The important things are leverage and technique, both of which Williams excels at.

 

So again, while I appreciate your critique, to simply dismiss my assessment as having no logic is a bit short-sighted IMO.

 

That most likely had a lot to do with the fact that people ran against us more than they passed, because we were solid against the pass and crappy against the run. Runs don't make as much per play, so our yards per play would drop without us actually getting better at all.

 

Teams ran only 501 passes at us in 1086 plays from scrimmage. That's why we allowed less per play than most. Nothing to be proud of there. We allowed 6.0 YPA on pass plays, second-best in the league. We also allowed 4.7 YPC on run plays, third-WORST in the league, tied with another team for 30th out of 32. No wonder they ran on us more than they passed, and because they did that, no wonder we allowed less yardage per play than most teams.

 

First off, your numbers are incorrect. Teams passed 519 times against Buffalo in 2009, so says this link:

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?off...mp;d-447263-p=1

 

Furthermore, the contention you make in your 2nd paragraph make Buffalo almost no different than several of the other teams ranked in the top 10 in yds/play allowed. Teams like the Jets, Broncos, and Redskins all faced similar run/pass ratios from other teams, and faired quite similarly to Buffalo in the end.

[Kelly the Dog]

And I didn't disagree. Our defense was pretty decent.

 

But we're switching to a new one, which requires different kinds of personnel.

 

And our best pass rusher is retiring and nobody looks able to replace him. Remember how our sack total looked in 2008, the last year Schobel didn't play much?

I don't think anyone in the world knows what kind of pass rusher Aaron Maybin is going to be in a 3-4. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I think he's going to surprise a lot of people when his physical attributes may be a strength and not a weakness, like when he was playing 4-3 DE.

 

I also don't think anyone on earth has any idea what kind of pass rush we're going to get out of Marcus Stroud.

 

I don't think anyone in the world knows how well Terrel Troup is going to hold his space and tie up the interior of the line on early downs so the LBs can make tackles close to the LOS. The pass rush is a COMPLETELY different animal regardless of the players on the field when it is 2nd or 3rd and 7-8 instead of 2nd or 3rd and 2-3.

 

I don't think anyone knows how well Edwards is going to make defensive calls, how much a liability the OLBs will be never having played the positions (in regards to other teams taking so much advantage of it that we can't call what we wanna call).

 

So I can't even predict what kind of pass rush we will have. Too many variables right now.

[Doc]

First off, your numbers are incorrect. Teams passed 519 times against Buffalo in 2009, so says this link:

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?off...mp;d-447263-p=1

 

Furthermore, the contention you make in your 2nd paragraph make Buffalo almost no different than several of the other teams ranked in the top 10 in yds/play allowed. Teams like the Jets, Broncos, and Redskins all faced similar run/pass ratios from other teams, and faired quite similarly to Buffalo in the end.

Bingo. The "the passing numbers looked so good because teams ran against the Bills at will" theory was debunked awhile ago. The most important stat was yards/pass play allowed, and the Bills ranked 2nd in the NFL.

[Gabe Northern]

I think most would agree that the strength of the defense is the secondary, which returns in tact (and likely with a healthy McKelvin). The deficiencies were the DL and LBs, both of which received an influx of talent via FA and/or the draft. While I understand that a scheme change will undoubtedly have an impact on performance, I think that the defensive performance from last season certainly gives the team something to build upon. If the team can establish a steady pass rush (despite most likely losing their best pass rusher) and the new-look defensive front of Stroud, Edwards, Williams, Johnson, Carrington, and Troup can pick up their new assignments quickly, this team could be looking at a top-tier defense.

 

1. Agreed about secondary. Excited about seeing what these guys can do in a more aggressive system.

 

2. You underestimate the impact of the change of scheme. It will not just have an impact on performance, it will fundamentally change the way the defense approaches the game. Many of the stats you cite were a function of the defense we ran.

 

3. We look good at DE, potentially horrible at NT. I don't see the influx of talent at LB, given my belief that Davis was signed to replace Mitchell, that Kelsay will not cut it at OLB, and that the other "new talent" is 6th round former DEs.

 

4. The pass rush is unlikely to develop this year unless Maybin can go from non-factor to 10 sack guy in the span of one year. Who else could even realistically be penciled in for 6 sacks?

[Gabe Northern]

Bingo. The "the passing numbers looked so good because teams ran against the Bills at will" theory was debunked awhile ago. The most important stat was yards/pass play allowed, and the Bills ranked 2nd in the NFL.

 

That's what Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell brought to the table. Force teams to make long drives. Don't make mental mistakes. Don't surrender big plays in the pass game.

 

People on this board love to hate Jauron while citing the fruits of his philosophy when trying to make the case that the team isn't so bad.

 

He led bad rosters to 7-9 finishes. That's what his brand of football delivers. The fact that he couples that with some mind-numblingly stupid game management and decisions and you can convince yourself that 5 different decisions and we'd be 11-5 and in the playoffs.

[Mickey]

I agree. The Bills had the 2nd best pass defense last season, but had the 30th ranked run defense. Getting bigger in the front 7 will help the run defense this season. The pass rush will be the biggest question going into the season on defense. I know there will be an adjustment period with installing a new defense, but I can see the defense finishing in the top 15 at the end of the season.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in that pass defense rank. That is based on total yards in the air. Teams didn't need to throw as much because they had so much success on the ground.

[Kelly the Dog]

I wouldn't put too much stock in that pass defense rank. That is based on total yards in the air. Teams didn't need to throw as much because they had so much success on the ground.

As stated above, the Bills were #2 in the league in average yards given up per pass play, regardless of down and distance.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?off...mp;d-447263-p=1