Bills' Defense - Better than we think?

[Mickey]

This is what the stats of bend but don't break defenses look like. And yeah, the Bills defense wasn't horrible. They also weren't good. They were average, maybe even a smidge above average, but wore out near the end.

 

Up to this point, your post supports the common wisdom and uses stats to do so. Great.

 

But then you somehow use that to say that they could be great. How? Why? What would make you think that a defense that was slightly better than average last year but is losing it's best sacker (Schobel), changing to a scheme which will force many of the players (Kelsay, Maybin, Stroud, Spencer Johnson) to change position, force everyone to learn a new system, require different athletic and movement skills and even body types of the guys who aren't switching position, not to mention changing the most important positions (MLB and RDE in the 4 - 3 versus NT and ROLB in the 3 - 4) from spots where we have guys with experience and talent (Poz and our best player, Schobel) to guys with either no experience (Troup and whoever ends up playing ROLB - Maybin? A rookie?) or to guys who physically fitted the job description of their old position to a T but just don't fit the template at their new position (Kyle Williams) ... why would you think that would cause improvements in the first year?

 

I think we both know the answer to that one. Blind hope. Because there certainly was no logic in your assumption. We were better than some thought last year (true) so we will be really really good this year despite huge changes and massive player to position misfits (hunh?). There is no logic. Only blind hope.

 

Good luck with that. It would certainly be a cheerful thing.

I agree that there just is no comparison to last year given the massive changes in store for the defense this year. Still, I am a lot more optimistic, long range, where the defense is concerned than the offense. I don't care what the stats say, I think we have a solid secondary with more depth than it needs. I think we have decent LB's, nothing great but decent enough that, when healthy, I think they will do just fine. I also think they have done a good job building a new defensive line for the new 3-4. I am almost positive that they are going to struggle this year as they all learn this new system and because we still have to make some personnel changes to complete the 4-3 to 3-4 move. But that will have to wait until next year. I am getting a little bleary with all the posts obsessing on stats to show that despite the results in the W-L record, we were a very good or nearly very good team. It just aint so. We were just about exactly as good as our record. Perhaps a little worse due to the Indy "win".

[stuckincincy]

I wouldn't put too much stock in that pass defense rank. That is based on total yards in the air. Teams didn't need to throw as much because they had so much success on the ground.

 

If I'm a team playing BUF this coming season, I will pound their new 3-4 on the ground 40 times. Quick snaps. Most runs between my tackles. Unbalanced line time to time. Make 'em bring up the defensive backfield.

 

They will have to prove the error of my ways.

[Doc]

That's what Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell brought to the table. Force teams to make long drives. Don't make mental mistakes. Don't surrender big plays in the pass game.

 

People on this board love to hate Jauron while citing the fruits of his philosophy when trying to make the case that the team isn't so bad.

 

He led bad rosters to 7-9 finishes. That's what his brand of football delivers. The fact that he couples that with some mind-numblingly stupid game management and decisions and you can convince yourself that 5 different decisions and we'd be 11-5 and in the playoffs.

What has hurt the team under Jauron is his simplistic offensive philosophy. He had it in Chicago and brought it with him to Buffalo.

[yungmack]

No problem, and good point....a point that I was able to verify on NFL.com

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?sea...mp;d-447263-n=1

 

According to this, Buffalo's defense was able to stop opponents on only 40% of 3rd downs, which ranked 24th in the league. Part of that had to do with the fact that Buffalo's defense faced the most 3rd down attempts in the league (240), which is (I believe) a function of the fact that Buffalo's defense faced the most plays from scrimmage overall in the league (1,086). Nevertheless, they do need to get better on 3rd downs.

 

One other stat that jumped out at me from NFL.com: Buffalo finished 2009 with a yards-per-play-allowed of 5.0, which is tied for 5th in the NFL. Pretty darn good for a team that faced the most plays in the league.

Most third down attempts, the most plays from scrimmage...Those are incredible stats; I had no idea the Bills D was on the field that much. That explains a lot about this team, including maybe the change to 3-4.

[yungmack]

Great Post. It is hard to argue that the defense was the "problem area" for the team last year (or even the previous year). Hidden in the stats is also the fact that the Bills D spent more time on the field. I would also tend to believe (though I do not have facts to support) that the lack of production from the O led to other teams having generally favorable field position.

I seem to recall the Bills were able to pin the opponent pretty far back due to Moorman having a fantastic year. I think special teams led the league in downing punts inside the opponents 20.

[thebandit27]

I agree that there just is no comparison to last year given the massive changes in store for the defense this year. Still, I am a lot more optimistic, long range, where the defense is concerned than the offense. I don't care what the stats say, I think we have a solid secondary with more depth than it needs. I think we have decent LB's, nothing great but decent enough that, when healthy, I think they will do just fine. I also think they have done a good job building a new defensive line for the new 3-4. I am almost positive that they are going to struggle this year as they all learn this new system and because we still have to make some personnel changes to complete the 4-3 to 3-4 move. But that will have to wait until next year. I am getting a little bleary with all the posts obsessing on stats to show that despite the results in the W-L record, we were a very good or nearly very good team. It just aint so. We were just about exactly as good as our record. Perhaps a little worse due to the Indy "win".

 

At no point did I say that the Bills were a very good team. I said that the defense has a chance to be very good next year. The offense is still likely to be very lousy, as that's usually what happens to teams that have no QB and a poor offensive line.

 

I also did not imply that the Bills' team was any better than their record indicated that they were in 2009. All I pointed out was that the team's defense played significantly better--as far as limiting their opponents' yardage and points per drive--than I believe most on this board realized. Considering that they spent more time on the field than any other unit (offensive or defensive) in the entire league, I'd say they acquitted themselves rather nicely. If you disagree, so be it, differing opinions make the world go 'round, but I'd prefer not to be lumped in with the "Their almost there" crowd when I've said nothing of the sort.

[milehiLou]

bills secondary is top fivein the nfl, no doubt and will be playing man this season which in my opinion is what they are all suited for , linebackers are going to obviously benefit from having a fourth on the field, and moving Maybin to the edge will generate pass rush from his side because a man that fast in space will get to the qb, imo. he is a manchild. andra davis is a consumate professional who adds leadership to the middle of the field, with mitchells return incomplete. if poz stays healthy for a whole season, look for him in hawaii in feb.

 

Look no further than my local team here in denver, whose 08 overall defensive ranking was a paltry 29th, and after THE OH SO DIFFICULT AND CONFUSING SWITCH FROM THE 4-3 TO THE 3-4 they somehow improved to 7th overall. their rush defense didnt improve dramatically but the sky didnt fall, and remember they also switched coaches.