Ratimg Tom Donahoe's Performance

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

This is a post which attempts to inject some factoids and rational consideration into what will become an increasingly hot and relevant topic regardless of which way the Bills perform in 2004.

 

Some will hate TD and call for his ouster even if the Bills were to win a playoff game (I doubt even the most virulent TD haters will call for his head if the Bills won the SB or even if they did the laughter would be deafening).

 

Others will defend TD as long as Ralph writes him paychecks regardless of how stinky the team does under his reign.

 

The question actually strikes me as an easy one though the logical answer comes in two parts.

 

1. TD's tenure as GM has sucked!- One need look no further than the team's horrendous record under his three year tenure to draw this true conclusion. There are obvious mulligans which have to be part of any description of this record. For example, the 3-13 record of his first year was clearly not due to his competence or incompetence as much as the unavoidable result of the cap hell he inherited.

 

However. 3 years is a long time in football land and this was clearly his team last year (and even the year before when the record of improvement was outstanding as the move from 3-13 to 8-8 was a turnaround of historic proportions by NFL standards).

 

W/Ls and playoff appearnaces are tje true measure of success for any GM and any way you cut it the results after 3 years simply sucked.

 

2. However, TD deserves to stay and get another chance!- Further, as a Bill a look at the underpinnings and individual decisions which resulted in the horrible record and recent steps to reverse it give any rational Bills fan good reasons to be quite hopeful about this year.

 

Look, it is clear and undeniable to me that his record sux. However, it is my assessment and my guess that this horrible record included both some outstanding decisions and efforts by TD which give one hope. Further, the really bad mistakes he made (and I make no mistake, they were TD's bad choices) have been reversed or changed and if the changes are based on the good kjudgments he has made and like any team we get lucky, things can work out well in 2004 and even make us a serious threat to achieve the ultimate win in 2005.

 

This is my sense of TD, the good, the bad, and the we'll see what happens this year of him. The big summary for me is that TD's team must suceed this year or he should be gone. Success probably means at least making the playoffs or if not then come darn darn close (we may not make it but if we don't it beteer clearly not be TD's team's fault. so my judgment is we better make it if it is rational for him to stick around).

 

As we move toward the beginning of the season I plan to post a few of my usual semi-lengthy diatribes about aspects of TD's GM work. This will be me thinking out loud so the grades below (and even some of the topic areas) may change as I write and think this through. I have divided TDs work responsibility in my mind into several areas. Obviously some are more important to me than others (ex: player selection is a major part of the GM job and contract negtiation is another intensely related but different part. I view both as essential places for performance by a good GM but I judge player seclection as of greater importance) but performance in almost all areas is essential to winning.

 

Overall: TD Grade- Incomplete. As long as he has a job or until I as a fan turn on him this grade is always incomplete in my mind. I was an advocate of firing GW after the great turnaround of his second season because there were things I judged about his peformance as to make it the best course to get more Ws sooner by firing him even though he had a year left on his contract. My guess was that wwith a new HC doing better than the 8-8 of that year would take a tremendous effort, but I judged (correctly as it unfortunately turned out) that GW's third year would see our record fall.

 

My sense is that even though TD has been a failure to date, the internals of the changes made, new hires and new direction taken actually give us a better shot at a winning record and even making the playoffs than we would under a new GM. Folks may disagree and that is fine and even great, but if you call for TD's ouster at this point then it also demands that this advocate say who he would replace TD with and why this replacement would do better.

 

I do not see a reasonable replacement for TD (Jimmy Johnson, Deirge Seifert, Pete Carroll, Marv Levy?) so at least for a year you dance with the one who brung you so I give him an incomp;ete overall.

 

Player Selection: A- This area also get subdivided into a number of assessments below, but overall I think the Bills roster has seen very talented players come from a number of different areas under the GMs control. TDs player selections include some failures (and real potential boners) as all GM's records include but these failures for things to workout like one would hope are easily balanced by some great acquisitions and non-conformist picks that have worked out that are against the conventional wisdom. Overall, player selection has been impressive to me. The subdivisions are:

 

The Draft- B+: His first 7 picks each of his first 2 years have started at some point in their Bills career. A few likw Spoon were starters due to injury and weakness of the guys in front of them, but for the most part YDs draft has included contributors with his early picks the forst two years. One year is really too early to judge last year's crop, but one can al;ready begin to see the increased competition of quality vets as a quicker release from cap hell was secured than reasonably could have been expected. The grade is knocked down primarily because of the poor mental performance of highly picked Williams (it still is too early to declare him a bust) but if he proves to be a bust this grade will go down.

 

Trades- A-: The performance here has been outstanding as one must take into account that not only were our needs huge after the many cuts of Butler leftovers, but we had no value to give. Despite these needs and negatives and the difficulty with doing any trades in the NFL, each of the last three drafts have seen moves by TD deened virtually impossible to pull off before they happened, The grade is not perfect since Bledsoe's results were so bad last year after being outstnading his first year. However, assessments of the Bledsoe trade which seek to ignore he really should be compared to whether we upgraded at QB over Rob Johnson and the fact that his performance Drew a Pro Bowl nod his first year make a rational overall assessment of the Bledsoe trade as evem-steven for the Bills at worst and we will be able to ultimately judge the effectiveness of the move based on the results of this year.

 

FA signings- A: TD has been a tough negotiator for the Bills who somehow also manages not to drive off or piss off potential signees. He has attracted signed and signed some outstanding defensive players like Spikes, Fletcher, Milloy, Vincent, Posey and most impressively to me the way he got Sam Adams. On the O he pulled off a surpirse of getting a QB from a division opponent when we were at the AVP level at best, He also was quite opportunistic in getting Henry to extend for a year. He has used the draft rather than FA for offense and the failing shows, but overall i loke who he has gotten and almost like who he let go. yet overall, this area has been outstanding.

 

Coach Signings- F: Signing GW (particularly over Fox and Lewis who have procen to be winners) was a big mistake. Even worse he let GW make the team his ownd when he simply made it bad with his choices of Co-ordinators. My major fault with TD here now turns out to be as I learn more that I wish he had been more of a control freak. Losing the debate to GW over hiring Gilbride or Clements (as apparently TD was advocating) really set this team and ultimately TDs record of success back big time. TD seemed to want to protect himself from getting run out of town like Cowher did to him not by standing on his new HCs neck and not letting him gain power, but instead to allow his new HC (GW) to make his own moves and sink or swim with them. GW got sunk and rightfully took the blame for making stupid moves and comments. However, it was Bills fans who paid the price. TD needs to sink or swim based on how this team does regardleaa of who does it. GW is his one mulligan in my book.

 

Business management: B+ I couldn't care much less about this aspect of the game unless it effects what happens on the field. However, in the end, this is a business so this aspect is important. Sellouts do not lie. TD has overseen production of an entertaining product despite a horrible record. The Bledsoe trade not only improved things on the field in trading up from Rob Johnson but really created an excitement in this town which should xreate an underpinning to a total sellout of all seats this year. management of the product from St. John's Fisher, interplay with the business community, and making seat selection and purchasing for the fans a huge step up from the tickets in a shoebox days of the past phenomenal.

 

I'm sure there are other factors and i am happy to read feedback and suggestions or will introduce them as I do more details in the future. The next detailed post will probably be a draft review.

[Frez]

That's just way to long to read.

 

I'll sum it up to 17 and 31

[Thailog80]

That's just way to long to read.

 

I'll sum it up to 17 and 31

9804[/snapback]

 

Not for me its not....I love the ignore feature...

[Rubes]

"semi-lengthy"??

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, sitting in bed with my laptop, that turned out to be a good read. I agree with you for the most part. I have actually been very pleased to have TD, particularly following the Butler disaster. He has certainly done a reasonable job getting talented players to sign with the team, and creating a real sense of excitement about them despite being in the cellar just a couple of seasons ago. The 17-31 thing really does hang like a black cloud over everything, though, reminding me that generating excitement is one thing, but tangible results will always be the ultimate measure of success.

[Kelly the Dog]

One of the major jobs for a GM is to get the community involved and excited over the team and puts fannies in the seats. TD gets an A for that, too. The St. John Fisher move has been a tremendous success. The regionalization of the team has been great. The changing of the uniforms (although I still hate the away ones) has been a financial success. TD has acquired an excellent front office, and Buffalo has become, surprisingly, one of the best free agents stops for players. That is because of Donohoe.

 

Unfortunately, his record, because of his poor choice of the first head coach, overrides everything to date. But I would bet anyone that Ralph Wilson is extremely happy with the job that Tom Donohoe has done.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I do not see a reasonable replacement for TD (Jimmy Johnson, Deirge Seifert, Pete Carroll, Marv Levy?) so at least for a year you dance with the one who brung you so I give him an incomplete.

9801[/snapback]

 

If RW brought in Jimmy Johnson, I would probably go to his house and do donuts on his lawn, and leave a bag of stevestojan at his door.

 

Hell, if he does that, why not get some premiere head-coaching material like Deion to go with him? Deion says he's good, so he must be, right?

[34-78-83]

To me, the main part of TD's job is to Draft and obtain quality players and Free agents and manage the Cap in such a way that the team has a chance to compete every year. He has done a very good job at this IMO. The infamous 17-31 record to me is a factor but not the bottom line.

[Frez]

Yada yada yada......

 

We all are shooting for the same goal here right? I want to win the SB! It would be nice to just SMELL the playoffs. Until Donahoe shows us the playoffs he gets an F from me. As a fan, I expect nothing less.

 

Don't get me wrong here, I think a lot of TD and am greatful he's trying. What I'm most worried about is his cocky ways about him and the choices he makes. I think we could have kept a few players (M.Wiley) when TD arrived here. I think what TD wanted to do his build his own team. If it wasn't for the fans screaming for Gregg Williams to be fired I think Gregg would have been brought back from last year. I don't think TD likes admitting he was wrong and that worries me.

 

TD=17 - 31

 

It's not what I expected from him.

[IDBillzFan]

One of the major jobs for a GM is to get the community involved and excited over the team and puts fannies in the seats. TD gets an A for that, too. The St. John Fisher move has been a tremendous success. The regionalization of the team has been great. The changing of the uniforms (although I still hate the away ones) has been a financial success. TD has acquired an excellent front office, and Buffalo has become, surprisingly, one of the best free agents stops for players. That is because of Donohoe.

 

Unfortunately, his record, because of his poor choice of the first head coach, overrides everything to date. But I would bet anyone that Ralph Wilson is extremely happy with the job that Tom Donohoe has done.

10047[/snapback]

KDog = 100% right.

[ganesh]

Yada yada yada......

 

. What I'm most worried about is his cocky ways about him and the choices he makes. I think we could have kept a few players (M.Wiley)  when TD arrived here. I think what TD wanted to do his build his own team.

TD=17 - 31

 

It's not what I expected from him.

10107[/snapback]

 

Frez,

 

When TD arrived because of the salary cap, he had a choice to make between

Wiley or Moulds. He chose Moulds over Wiley. History has proved that Wiley

has not been a dominating DE at San Diego and was cut after 3 years.

 

He could have gone either way and the complaint would have been that TD

did not give a contract to the other one.

[30dive]

All in all I think he done a pretty good job. He was left with a fiscal mess and has cleaned it up. Even while losing he has put fanny's in the seats and continues to bring in players that excite us. The biggest mistake is the hiring of Greg Williams. But this is just like most second guessing we all do from the comfort of our arm chairs.

[Guest Guest]

I find it amazing how many people bring up Fox and Lewis. First off, both were with different teams with different players. GW was hired late Jan, so the choice of assistants were rather limited by that time. I think it's tough for a team to bring in a new GM and coach in same year and expect the coach to work out.

 

Lewis was 8-8 and inherited a much better team than GW/TD in their first year here at Buffalo. All those years at Cinncy being terrible helped bring in many high draft choices. As they say even a blind squrell can find an acorn sometimes. Well, some of Cinny's picks have worked put in prior years. So if 8-8 for Lewis means he was a success, then Williams also was a sucess in his second year since he was 8-8. If Cincy has a record worse than 8-8 this year, then does that make the GW choice look better as Lewis also then must have been a failure??

 

Even Fox started with a better team too than here at Buffalo. Both those teams had been bad for awhile so had better draft picks and weren't trying to hang pn for one last run at Super Bowl and in process got in salary cap trouble like the Bills were to start the TD era.

 

I'm not disagreeing with your grade of F, (I might have gave him a D-) but I don't think Lewis has proved much yet.

 

I noticed the rest of your scores were pretty good. (which I agreed with) I found it interersting that all his "grades" were good except coach and you stated that he has overall sucked. Pretty amazing to me!

 

 

Coach Signings- F:  Signing GW (particularly over Fox and Lewis who have procen to be winners) was a big mistake.  Even worse he let GW make the team his ownd when he simply made it bad with his choices of Co-ordinators.  My major fault with TD here now turns out to be as I learn more that I wish he had been more of a control freak.  Losing the debate to GW over hiring Gilbride or Clements (as apparently TD was advocating) really set this team and ultimately TDs record of success back big time.  TD seemed to want to protect himself from getting run out of town like Cowher did to him not by standing on his new HCs neck and not letting him gain power, but instead to allow his new HC (GW) to make his own moves and sink or swim with them.  GW got sunk and rightfully took the blame for making stupid moves and comments.  However, it was Bills fans who paid the price.  TD needs to sink or swim based on how this team does regardleaa of who does it.  GW is his one mulligan in my book.

 

 

9801[/snapback]

[/dev/null]

td=rj

 

and no, i'm not being a smartass. consider...

1998 RJ started 6 games, going 2-3 with wins over SF and NO. Flutie completed the IND game and gets credit for the win (losing when RJ was injured)

1999 RJ started 1 game, a win vs IND

2000 RJ started 11 games and came in mop up duty in another. but we all know he got knocked out alot, and in 2 of these games Flutie came in and got credit for a win (SD) and a loss (NE). In the 9 games RJ got credit for, the bills were 3-6

2001 A year we'd all like to forget, RJ went 1-7

 

Giving RJ a career record of 7-16 in Buffalo, or a 30% winning record

TD has a 17-31 record, or a 35% winning record. Not much higher than that of RJ

 

TD=RJ

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The thing i find most amazing in assessing the TD performance is how when so many of the individual facets of performance have been so good (the many As I judge his performance in various areas of a GMs job that the bottom line results in terms of production of Ws has been so horrid. If ever there was a real life example of the sum of the parts not equaling the whole it is my assessment of his performance.

 

Individual aspects of his performance are simply outstanding, but the total performance as I measure it has not produced the Ws and the playoffs appearances (much less wins) that are the true goal in my book.

 

My sense of explaining this oddity is that performance in many areas of the game are necessary to achieve greatness, but no one area is sufficient to gurantee or produce greatness.

 

TD has shown himself to be one of the best football guya I have seen in the speed with which he righted the ship of state and got us out of cap hell at least a year earlier than I expected. He has shown himself to be a cagey and productive business manager for the Bills (the measure which ultimately will determine whether Ralph is happy with him or not). He has shown himself to be a great negotiator of contracts and represent the team's interest and still be appealing to the market of FAs.

 

Most impressive in my book it that he has confronted items like the conventional wisdom that you can't get a team in your division to trade you a QB, that losing an FA determined to go home (PP) is simply a fact of the game for which you will receive no compensation, or that WM's value had dropped him well beyond the 1st round. TD has gone against the CW and it has paid off for the Bills (at least in Bledsoe's first year production and the excitement restored to WNY) with these moves.

 

However, though his performance has been beyond was is necessary to compete and win in this lwague in many areas, he has simply sucked in one of the areas which is essential to having a competitive and winning team. He has been great in my judgment in most facets of his work, but fail horribly short in one essential facet of hiring a good HC and then working with him to get good enigh production.

 

I think TDs great failing to date is that he has seemed to be more driven by making sure that an issue like Cowher running him out of town and firing the guy who hired him never happens to him again.

 

He has participated in a management structure for GW where TD simply made sure that GW was given the ability to run the team himself and absorbed the blame if it failed and TD's hands were left clean.

 

I for one would have preferred to see TD:

 

1. Risk hiring a guy with the chops to be a winning HC (GW was a great DC but simply did not have the ability to run a good offense without lots of help, and then did not have the cojones to rein Gilbride in when the league caught up to KG) even if hiring a Fox or a Lewis meant they might turn on him and pull a Cowher if they were successful.

 

2. Failing him having the strength to hire a great potential HC who might gain the strength to fire him like Ciwher did, he instead seemed to be most interested in giving GW enough rope to hang himself if he failed. I wish TD had been strong enough to insist that GW build his first coaching team with some individuals with experience.

 

Failing to do that, I wish TD had forced GW to take Clements as OC to replace Sheppard as TD apparently advocated instead of accepting GW's candidate who was Gilbride by all reports I hear.

 

Finally, even though the Bills O improved drastically TD's second year under Bledsoe, it was pretty clear to this outside observer that the NFL had caught up to KG and Gilbride in the second half of the 2002 season and that GW was not doing what was necessary to force KG to change in order to win. It would have undercut GW completely to force him to fire who drastically change his O and co-ordinator after the second year, and TD should have canned him and moved on then.

 

Overall, i think TD is a great football man. However, his human desire to say never again to getting fired by the guy he hired has really undermined his ability to manage this team to glory in my mind.

 

 

I find it amazing how many people bring up Fox and Lewis. Etc.

[jahnyc]

I agree with many of the posts, but I think his drafts deserve an overall grade of C. The first, in 2001, was strong. But 2002 and 2003 have, so far, been disappointing. I realize it takes a number of years before one can accurately judge a draft, but I see a lot of disappointments in M. Williams, Reed, Sullivan Wire and Denney. I aslo wonder about Kelsay, Sobieski, Pucillo, Aiken and Crowell. Some of these guys need to step-up befoer we can say that Donahoe deserves a higher grade. Time will tell, but drafting guys that are back-up types or marginal starters won't get us to the Superbowl.

[Bill from NYC]

I agree with many of the posts, but I think his drafts deserve an overall grade of C.  The first, in 2001, was strong.  But 2002 and 2003 have, so far, been disappointing.  I realize it takes a number of years before one can accurately judge a draft, but I see a lot of disappointments in M. Williams, Reed, Sullivan Wire and Denney.  I aslo wonder about Kelsay, Sobieski, Pucillo, Aiken and Crowell.  Some of these guys need to step-up befoer we can say that Donahoe deserves a higher grade.  Time will tell, but drafting guys that are back-up types or marginal starters won't get us to the Superbowl.

10267[/snapback]

 

I agree. After TD's first draft, the rest ranged from OK to horrid. Does anyone remember the old menu at Burger King? We are stuck with a 36 million dollar "Whaler, Heavy on the Tarter" with the #4 pick in a draft. Were it not for some great free agency pickups, this alone should place TD's job in jeopardy, imo.

 

Additionally, neglecting the OL in this draft was a grave error imo. Like many on this board, TD seems to think that McNally will turn below average journeymen into quality blockers. I hope it happens, but should it fail to (which is likely), I hope he loses his job.

[jahnyc]

I agree with you. It is very interesting that Donahoe has missed so badly with his o-line picks. Jennings has been solid, but Williams and Sullivan have been disappointments and Sobieski and Pucillo haven't done much. That is one for five. Maybe we should have used higher picks on some o-linemen over the last four drafts (I think Sobieski and Pucillo were 7th rounders). Donahoe needed Mike Williams to be at a minimum very solid and he hasn't been.

 

I would have drafted a guard in the first or second round this year. The Bills will be lucky if Smith can play decently. I remember Wilson and Donahoe saying last season that there would be significant changes to the o-line. I hope starting Smith at LG wasn't what they were talking about.