Cash

Good news! Nice to see us hire someone with NFL experience. It is kind of weird that one of George Edwards' position coaches outranks him (Assistant Head Coach > Defensive Coordinator > Linebackers Coach), but hopefully they can make it work.

Not that I'm a fan, but what talent is he supposed to have? He's a season-ticket holder whose gimmick is a fireman's helmet painted like a Jets helmet. Is he supposed to be able to sing or something?

Because it's really hard to know for sure that the tiny Samoan kid from USC with the crazy hair is going to become Troy Polamalu in the NFL. I absolutely agree with you that Polamalu (or Ed Reed, or maybe Bob Sanders if he wasn't so brittle) would be worth a top 5 pick in just about any draft. And I can see a scenario where drafting a S that high would be justified (probably it's a pretty weak draft at the top). But teams get themselves into trouble when they draft guys like Roy Williams, LaRon Landry, Michael Huff, and (you guessed it) Donte Whitner in the top 10, hoping that he'll become the next Polamalu or Reed, when he just becomes a good starting safety. Game-changing safeties like Polamalu are so rare, it's very difficult to justify taking a safety with a top 10 (let alone top 5!) pick. Even if he pans out, chances are he won't be able to affect the game the way a pass-rusher or run-stuffing DT or lockdown corner would. Actually, lockdown corners are almost as rare as impact safeties, which is why you don't see a lot of corners drafted in the top 3 (although you do see a good number around 5-10). If you look at the history of super-high picks, there's 2 factors at play: 1.) Biggest impact on the game if he pans out 2.) Lowest risk of him being a total bust Since QB has by far the biggest impact of any position, it's no surprise that they go top 5 all the time. LT actually works for both, because it's the #2 most important position on offense, but even if the guy can't cut it, you can move him to RT or G and there's a good chance he'll be effective there (see Robert Gallery). Safeties are pretty low under both factors, so it's no surprise they don't get drafted much.

Uh, only if you don't count preseason, training camp, or OTAs. Try 2 months.

The main problem I have with the Bills' stance on coaching is that even when our hires work out, we get guys who are solid but unspectacular (and presumably cost-efficient). But for guys like that to win it all, don't we need to have the most talented team, or close to it? Yes, every coach needs good players to win, but who on the Bills current staff (or Jauron's, or Mularkey's, or Greggo's) is capable of coming up with an offensive or defensive scheme to outfox a good coach with a good team? (And yes, I specified O or D to prevent three dozen wise guys from bringing up Bobby April.) Maybe I'm overreacting to the Jets win over the Pats, but you can't deny that Rex Ryan is a great defensive strategist. Sure he's got talented players, but he comes up with effective schemes to utilize those players. His D sometimes (not always) outplays more talented teams because of his gameplans. When was the last time the Bills did that on O or D? When we win, it's because we played better, not because the other team got outcoached. And since we have bad players, we usually play worse than the other team. It's very frustrating. I'm sick of hearing that these first-timers and nobodies on the coaching staff are "teachers." You know what "teacher" means? Cheap. What, every other team has position coaches who can't tell their players what the proper technique is? Get real. How about hiring guys who have been successful in their positions for NFL teams? No, we have to stick with George Edwards, because no one could coach those bums to be a good defense. Maybe not, but what awesome defensive plays did George Edwards draw up that decent players could take advantage of? Guh.

QFT. More the first paragraph (facts) than the second (opinions), although I happen to mostly agree with those opinions. The Pats are either younger or better than us (or both) at every position except maybe long snapper and kicker. They were 12 games better than us this season, and with all their draft picks, they have arguably more ability to improve through the draft than the Bills do, even though we're picking 3rd and they're picking 28th. The Pats famously don't spend much in free agency, but the Bills spend even less, and have been up front about eschewing trades and free agency for player acquisition*. So yeah, a win might happen in the short term, but it would essentially be a fluke. There's no likely scenario for the Bills to not just win a game, but be the better team any time soon. That doesn't mean everything's written in stone, of course. The Pats have drafted poorly before, although their last 2-3 have been good. Maybe they have 2-3 bad drafts in a row, and we don't. Brady will definitely fall off and/or retire at some point, and the Pats might have a lot of trouble finding a successor. Combine that kind of stuff with the Bills showing a complete reversal in front office and coaching competence, and we might start our own stretch of dominance. It happened that way with the Dolphins, except the Dolphins stayed really good. *As an aside, given how bad the Bills draft, shouldn't we be all about trading for proven players? A first or second round pick practically brings a king's ransom these days. I guess no one's truly available unless there's something wrong with them, but I'd rather roll the dice with problem guys like Santonio Holmes or Marshawn Lynch than with the Bills' ability to find good players, especially at the top.

Fixed. And a great point in principle, even if you were off by 2 years. I'm not personally a fan of any QB in this draft, and I tend to doubt any will pan out at #3 overall. But in principle, this idea that you're going to draft a 5th-round guy, then hope he's good in 3 years? It's terrible. There's a reason that QBs bust so frequently: The position is SO important that teams are willing to take huge risks in the first round. Not the case with less-important positions like LB, C, G, or S. (Let's face it, Michael Huff and Whitner back-to-back are about the biggest historical busts at S, and both are actually pretty decent players. Safeties don't get a first-round grade unless they're nearly sure things.) In general, you've got a much better chance at getting a good LB late in the draft than a good QB.

Obvious troll is obvious. Elite defense + elite running game + elite O-line + shaky QB = 2006-2008 Vikings. Good stuff. Best case is probably: Arguably best defense in NFL history + elite running game + mediocre QB = 2000 Ravens. Nice job winning one of the worst Super Bowls ever, but not really the sustained success that most fans are dreaming about.

I don't like either QB at #3, but I think I could talk myself into either one. I voted for Prince Amukamura Von Miller (which is a weird name for a German prince, but whatever), because neither one seems like an abject stud. But from what I'm reading, AJ Green and Patrick Peterson are the two biggest locks in the entire draft. Every team can use a shutdown corner, including the Bills - especially if McGee can't get healthy and Florence leaves. I'm not saying Peterson would be anywhere near my first choice, but I could live with it. As for Green, c'mon people. I know he's a local product and all, but Naaman Roosevelt does not belong on an NFL field. One nice screen pass notwithstanding, neither does Donald Jones (at least not on offense). Take another look at our passing and scoring numbers the last month or two, and tell me we wouldn't be helped by an upgrade at WR. Especially since Chan loves playing 4 and 5 WR sets. Again, Green wouldn't be my first choice, but from everything I've read so far, he's about as big a lock as Andre Johnson or Megatron. For a team with such a horrible track record in the first round, isn't there something to be said for taking the safest player in the draft, who does fill a need, even if it's not the biggest need?

Yup. It seems unthinkable that there wouldn't be a draft, but plenty of sports leagues don't have drafts. It's just one part of the CBA. The NFL makes a ton of money off their draft, so it's pretty much a mortal lock that it comes back in some form, but beyond that, it's hard to say much. If the lockout lasts over 13-14 months, we probably won't have a 2012 draft at all. Another interesting tidbit that pertains to draft order is that Andrew Luck, assuming he graduates, may be eligible for the supplemental draft. Regardless of what order is decided on for the regular draft (assuming there is one in 2012), the supplemental draft order is always chosen randomly. So the dude may have some control over where he goes, at least in the sense of having multiple options.

But isn't it plausible that Seattle called them up with an offer, they decided it was good enough, and took it without making 20 additional calls to see if they could get a better offer? Remember, this is the team that handed in all of their draft picks in near record time. Most teams, even ones who are getting the guy they want, will at least take a couple minutes to see if anyone comes in with a Godfather offer. This is also the team whose GM stated publicly that he would be asleep at the start of free agency. I realize that we like to think that every front office is exploring every avenue to better their team, but the Buddy Nix Bills have made it pretty clear that that's not their game.

Thanks for the reminder. I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if it's possible to trade 2012 picks at this point? Given that there's not yet any provision for a 2012 draft, I would guess no.

Not suprised a bit. It's interesting how people talked themselves into being sure he'd come out over the course of the season. Go back and read stuff from September/October. The prevailing opinion back than was one of uncertainty, but that Luck was more likely to stay in school than come out. Anyway, given the likelihood of a lockout, and the fact that he had 2 remaining years of eligibility (and 1 year left to get his degree), this shouldn't come as a big shock. Keep in mind that the 2011 draft is covered by the current CBA, but *only* the draft. No draft pick can sign a contract until a new CBA is in place. No one knows how a new CBA will affect rookie salaries, but it's unlikely that different rules will be set up for the 2011 and 2012 drafts. So there's little to no risk in terms of worrying about a rookie wage scale. There's 2 real risks: 1.) Injury, which is mitigated somewhat by Sam Bradford. It's not a stretch to think Luck's draft stock could also overcome a season-ending injury to his shoulder. 2.) With a new coach and maybe worse teammates, Luck has a down year and is exposed as not being the real deal. As a fan, I'm glad he's going back, because if (2) happens, then we avoided a bust. I can't think of any QB whose draft stock dropped when he stayed an extra year, who then went on to amount to anything. Brohm stinks, Jevan Snead stinks, and I'm guessing Locker will stink as well. From Luck's perspective, if he's truly a competitor, and he thinks there's a good chance that the NFL doesn't play a season in 2011, what other decision could he make? From his perspective, he's not passing up any money, because he can't get a signing bonus until there's a new CBA anyway. And as a competitor, wouldn't you want to get better? How is not playing for a year going to accomplish that? Personally, I think Luck will wind up a lot more like Peyton Manning or Sam Bradford than Brian Brohm or Jake Locker, but we'll see.

Classic coachspeak BS. You either "are what your record says" or you're not. If you are, then at 4-12, you're not close to success. You're not anywhere near success, and you have to admit that. I don't mind the basic coachspeak of "we're closer than our record says, because of injuries and close losses" (ignoring that every team has injuries and loses some close games), but I hate this move. Trying to appear like a straight shooter who faces reality and tells the hard truth, but in reality making the same excuses as everyone else. And in truth, we're exactly as far away as our record shows. Sure, we had some close losses against some legit teams, but good teams rarely get blown out. We got blown out FIVE times. And on the other end, all 4 of our wins were against losing teams, 3 of which finished with 5 or less wins. And the only one even close to a blowout was the Bungles game, where we still got down 17 in the first half. I was willing to forget about the horrific start to the year, since it looked like we were making real progress in the second half, but those last 2 drubbings were a reality check. This team stunk and nothing about it was encouraging. Let's hope for another '85 or '87 draft in 2011.

Who are these "great" OTs who are hitting the market? Even good OTs rarely are allowed to hit free agency, much less great ones. Is Khalif Barnes a free agent? He backed up Langston Walker at RT for the Raiders last year. I think we'll try to keep this Raiders RT pipeline flowing.

2009, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1999, etc. Reference Having said that, I don't like any QB at #3, at least not right now. I don't watch a ton of college football, so I reserve the right to change my opinion. (Obviously Luck wouldn't be there even if he does come out.)

I'm not a fan of this idea that we should keep our bad coach around until he screws up a talented team, and only fire him then. Unless we're gunning for another high pick in 2012.

Some people need to stop projecting their own desires onto the Bills front office. I don't like it any more than anyone else, but the OP has a very legitimate point. This year, the Bills had 7 DBs who got regular/significant playing time when healthy (8 if you count Bryan Scott, who mostly played as a nickel LB). Of those, 3 are unrestricted free agents, and another has fairly significant injury issues, especially given his age. Those 4 are arguably our top 2 safeties and top 2 corners (when healthy). Definitely 2 of the top 3 in both cases. If Florence goes and management has concerns about McGee's leg, they're looking at a starting QB tandem of McLovin & Corner, with either a re-signed Youboty or a gimpy McGee as the nickel back. That's the kind of situation that can justify an early pick on a CB. Safety would be a lot harder for the Bills to justify, but based on their history, I wouldn't put it past them. To reiterate, even if every free agent in our secondary leaves, I would personally prefer that the Bills still focus on either the O-line or defensive front 7, and take their chances with a crappy secondary. I'm sick of having the worst run defense in the NFL. I'd also be happy with a move up to get Luck. Drafting a DB in the first 2 rounds would greatly upset me. Having said that, if Prince Akamura is a Revis/Nnamdi/Champ Bailey/Woodson type lockdown CB, he would be a great pick at #3 for any team. Those guys are very hard to find and almost invaluable defensively. No idea if he is or not.

I fully agree. What the Bills (and some of us fans) don't seem to get, at least for the last decade or so, is that you don't get better by dumping your best players (even if they're mediocre) and drafting guys to replace them. You get better by dumping your worst players, and drafting guys to either play alongside your best guys or take their jobs. Poz takes a lot of blame, but what if he was our 3rd-best LB? That'd be pretty good. And what if Whitner was the 7th-best guy on our D instead of the 3rd-best? Not too shabby. Off the top of my head: Lawyer Milloy wasn't cutting it, so he got cut & we drafted Donte Whitner Willis McGahee wasn't cutting it, so he got traded & we drafted Marshawn Lynch Takeo Spikes & London Fletcher weren't cutting it*, so neither was offered a new contract, & we drafted Poz & signed Kawika Mitchell Now Poz isn't cutting it*, so we let him go and ? For Whitner, I'll give the Bills a pass, because while I would like to see him back, he's apparently asking top 5 money for a safety, and a small-market team like the Bills can't afford to play an average to above-average starter like he's a difference maker. (I also sort of give the Bills a pass on all the CBs, because I tend to think that if the finances were different, the Bills would've loved to keep Clements, Greer, and maybe Winfield. Criticizing the Bills for being cheap is a different topic. I'm criticizing the Bills for doing a poor job of team-building.) *THEY MAKE ALL THEIR TACKLES 5 YARDS DOWNFIELD! GAH! Every other team's linebackers make at least half their tackles in the backfield!! Right? Anyway, for a team who's stated goal is to build through the draft and essentially not use free agency to acquire talent, I hope they realize that for that to work, they have to 1.) have good drafts, and 2.) almost never lose a good player to free agency. They're looking 0 for 2 on that right now, but we'll see.

I can't imagine rooting for something called "Blaine Gabbert" and being happy with the results.

The first part is correct, but head to head is never factored in. (Presumably to prevent a team throwing a game for draft-pick tiebreaker.) If strength of schedule is tied, the 2nd tiebreaker is a coin flip.

I'd also like to point out that Spiller's return numbers are okay, but not great. His kickoff return average is 24.3 with 1 TD. Among players with at least 10 returns, his average ranks 20th. 15 players have returned at least 1 kickoff for a TD, and 21 total kickoffs have been returned for TDs. Spiller has 2 kickoff returns of 40+ yards (including the TD), which ties him for 17th in the league. Purely as a kickoff returner, Spiller is about average. On punts, he's done a little better, but with a very small sample size. His average is 14.6 with a long of 34. Among players with at least 9 returns (Spiller has only returned 9 punts so far), that average ranks 5th. Three of Spiller's 9 returns have been for 20+ yards, which is probably the second-highest percentage in the league*, and probably won't hold up. Still, his 3 20+ yard returns rank him tied for 9th in the league. No 40+ yard returns or TDs to date. *Bryan McCann, who took over punt returns for Dallas when Dez Bryant got hurt, has been sick. He's only returned 4 punts, but 1 was a 97 yard TD and two others went over 20 yards. He's currently averaging 34.5 yards a return. I don't expect either that average or his 75% rate of 20+ yard returns to hold up. NFL.com stats

Too bad he knocked out Favre. T-Jack is faster than Moats and can escape him. Favre would be a sitting duck on some of these rushes.

This. Question Maybin's talent, but not his effort. Dude gives it his all, he's just not good enough.

A man walks into a talent agency and says, "boy, do I have an act for you. It's called the Aristocrats." Don't lead with the punchline. But Brett Favre jokes are always welcome!