Koufax

Ha ha....nice optimism. Look me up in four months, and I promise to be gentle with my "I told you so". This team is better than last year, but not a great team. Everyone is getting all uppity over some preseason struggles with the new line and the new offense. I think it will all look silly in a couple months and while we are likely to come up short of the playoffs, we will still be calculating the way we can get in in week 14 and 15 (maybe not in week 17, but I hope so...even if we don't make it in, I want the team playing for something on the 17th, not just playing out the season).

The 15th is a terrible day to reserve judgement until. If you want to reserve judgment (which I think is a pretty good idea). you need to reserve it for the 21st. We need people to remember that week 1 will be our hardest game of the year (harder than the road game in Tennessee), and whether you think the bills will be 6-10 or 10-6, you probably would have this penciled as a loss either way. We are struggling to come together as an offensive line, we have been playing without key new guy TO who is not going to get up to 100% right away and complete sync with Trent, and we are just starting with the no huddle. So week 1 will be tough because it is our first week, but also because it is on the road against our toughest opponent and a coach who consistently outsmarts us. So I don't think that judgments should change a great deal from Sept 13th to Sept 15th no matter how the game goes. Hopefully we play well and maybe we pull out the huge upset, but it could also be a very ugly game that starts a pretty good season otherwise.

I would like to boo this post. I am glad we have Fitzpatrick and that he has shown some signs of competence, because Trent has yet to play 16 games in a season, but I don't think a QB controversy gets us anywhere.

Really? I know 7-9 hasn't been fun, but this team has won 7 times each of the last three years, and usually it felt like we were better than that and were one or two plays away from being one or two games better than that (JP's Jet's game last year). So you think it can't get worse because we got shutout in preseason? This is still a 7-9ish team. I am becoming more pessimistic that DJ can turn it into a 10-6 team, but there is a long fall from the #11 pick to the #1 pick, and even though I'm sure many of the people on this board long to overpay that first pick, it is a rough 17 weeks that way. I do not see any reshuffling of the line happening, and I don't see a need to. Walker will be below average to above average, will get help from the tight end or running backs as they figure out where in that range he is, and hopefully will be pushed by Bell (who I can only see taking his place if Walker is hurt or a complete disaster).

Yeah, you are so right. The sky is falling! We will be longing for when JP fumbled us to 7-9 seasons and Mike Gandy was our LT. And all will be lost when we drop that opener in New England because without beating New England on the road we have no shot in our other fifteen games. And if you can't win in Pittsburgh in preseason you have no chance for anything good to happen all year! Okay, whoa, I had sarcasm lock on...just fixed it. 1) We are not a great team and will not be a great team this year. Winning the Super Bowl is really really unlikely this season, but clawing and scraping and hoping to get back to the playoffs and build on something instead of a 7-9 season seems pretty good to me right now. We should be heavy underdogs for every road game against an elite team, and if we rolled into Pittsburgh and took it to them and came away with a first half victory (the final score doesn't matter so much) it would be a shocker. Easier matchups than tonight: Weeks 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. That's good, because we are not going to be better than the best teams this year, and beating them will take some luck and good bounces. 2) Our O-Line is going to be a work in progress. I have said from the start that Walker is the weak link, and we should be hoping/praying for not-so-bad to pretty-good from him. I would love to see Bell slide in, but I don't see the coaches having the balls without injury. However, I would have every reason to expect a constant progression from our line as they come together, as Butler gets back to his old tricks, as the rookie guards get their feet under them, and as the team learns how much they might have to help Walker to keep him from hurting us. I expect better out of week 10 than week 3, and I sure as hell expect better as the season progresses than a practice game in August. 3) We need TO. We know this. We need his ability to get open, to make catches, but also to draw attention. Roscoe and Reed aren't real #2s and Lee has his problems as the #1. Trent is in a funk of not taking a shot downfield, and I think that is a problem I really would have liked him to get out of this week even if there were middle/deep interceptions in the process. But when TO is back things are different. 4) Our D held the champs to one first half touchdown and came within inches of breaking up a number of the Hines Ward catches. I think those inches are likely made up against more middle of the pack opponents. 5) To paraphrase Allan Iverson, we're talking about pre-season (repeat until you think it is funny). I would love to see things clicking, to see Trent go 10 for 10, most importantly to get the ball in the end zone, but preseason play is a TERRIBLE predictor of success. I am not worried about the big numbers, the QB ratings, the points or victories. I _am_ however concerned with failures on individual plays and our execution. 6) A good thing is that we have a couple more weeks before it counts, since we have a week 1 bye. (Sorry to get down on that game guys, but it is one we would need a last minute acquisition of Lawyer Milloy to compete, and is one that is most likely an L in the breakdown of a 6-10 season and most likely an L in the breakdown of a 11-5 season). We need to work out a lot of this crap before September 20th, because that is a game penciled in as a W in both 6-10 projections and 11-5 projections. 7) Dick is still not a great head coach, will never be, and gravitates towards safe results, which is only good when you are better than your opponents (like in his 13-3 season). The bad news is I think we have a good chance of being a lot better than people feel around here right now, and that means he keeps his job and another year at least. Go Bills!

Trent will be benched...for the final three quarters just like the other teams in the last pre season game. I would rather leave them out there until they score a TD or the game ends. But no, I definitely feel Trent is better than Fitzpatrick, and while we will likely be 0-1 to start the season, this team will progress and improve and do MUCH better than anybody feels right now.

Private message me and I will take the over on 4-12 for any amount you would like that I can afford Easy to get down, but we are not worse than our other 7-9 teams, and while our preseason offense has been pretty pathetic, we have been playing without TO, with our line still coming together, and tonight we played the defending champs on the road after playing a very good Green Bay team on the road. A lot of excuses, and yes, eleven of us TSW posters could have combined to lead our offense to zero points, but I do not think the sky is falling just yet, but will amusedly read all of the chicken little posts this week. That said, I get tired of the culture of mediocrity and play it safe. If Trent had looked further downfield maybe his INT wouldn't have been a pick six? And maybe he could take some more chances given that it is preseason, it doesn't count, and we can work on things? Disappointed with the play of our team so far, and know we will be starting the season 0-1, but excited about the 15 games after that.

Compared to last year where Walker was at LT in camp and Peters showed up at the last minute, didn't play week 1 and we were shuffling around within the first weeks of the season? Walker does not have the talent or ability of Peters head to head, and could be anywhere from pretty good to pretty bad, but my assessment of this O-Line is that it will be better than last year, and coming out of camp has more continuity and chemistry than we had last year.

So do you think our O-Line will be better or worse than last year? My money is on better even with Walker LT and two rookie guards. Maybe I'm wrong and overly optimistic, but I did not think that our line play was very good last year and think that we can approve with Butler at his natural position, two very talented guards (at the easiest position on the line where their physical talent can take over) a better center (not saying a lot), and a big smart slow guy taking over for a talented guy who didn't seem to care. So do you think our D-Line will be better or worse than last year? Hmm...add Maybin and a healthy Schobel, lose nobody. I'm going with better on this one too, and think the two Aarons will offset another year older for Stroud. So from the simplistic trenches only perspective I think we are better than the team that needed to fall on their sword to stumble to a tragic 7-9 (and was probably an 8 or 9 win team realistically), so we are better than what I think was an 8 or 9 win team. I think we are a 9-7 team right now, who can falter and do worse or maybe get lucky and do a little better. The 11-5 Pats* didn't make the playoffs last year, so we could easily come up short even at 9-7, but this is an improved team that has me excited to watch the season and know there is a better chance of a playoff spot than a top 5 pick. But realistically Jauron will probably find a creative way to turn my 9-7 team into a 7-9 team, so I am keeping all of my optimism handy, but not running to Vegas to put down real money.

Hmmm...that seems like a pretty significant shuffle for mid season (if that is what you mean by mid-season). I can see Bell beating out Walker only if Walker fails significantly or is hurt, and otherwise think Bell will be a 2010 impact. Butler is a natural RT and I can't imagine the coaches having a quick trigger with either of our rookie guards. Hangartner looks like he had one of the stronger games against GB, and seems like a rather reliable veteran who I don't see a capacity to screw up enough to have a shuffle. Especially with the no huddle, I think there will be patience on the line and it would take injuries or big failures for any shuffling. Now my personal reading of the tea leaves aside, I think that the Bell-Levitre-Wood-Butler-Walker line is pretty intriguing and maybe even stronger than what we have now, but having three in a row left to right basically as rookies (I know Bell isn't) would be WAY too much to throw at the blind side going into this season. I'm wishing Walker a nice boring season of pretty good, and think he is big enough and smart enough to do that, even if he lacks quickness and experience on that side. I would love Bell to emerge since we all agree on his upside, and I would love it to be based on him tearing things up in practice and not on failure or injury to Walker. But I don't see that happening, and am settling in for a long run of the status quo.

To quote Fargo, "I can't say I agree with your detective work there Norm". 1) I don't think the schedule difference is what people believe. Last year we had Oak, StL, and KC as easy games, but @Jax, @NFC Champ Ari, SD, @DEN, etc, I don't think was as easy a schedule as people think, and I don't think this year is much harder. Since we have a couple games on the list repeating these are the 7 games differenct 2008: SEA, OAK, @STL, @ARI, SD, SF, @DEN (we went 5-2 in these games) 2009: TB, NO, @CAR, HOU, @TEN, @ATL, IND Definitely harder on paper, but it remains to be seen what a week 17 INDY will be like, and how a few of those teams come together. Going into 2008 Seattle, Jacksonville, and San Diego were all playoff teams, but in 2008 their past didn't matter much. I'm not convinced that Carolina or Tennessee will be as good as last year, and the same goes for Atlanta, but more importantly the four most likely to win games we have (assuming Peyton is sitting out, which isn't for sure) are our home games. I don't think we will necessarily go 5-2 in these seven particular games, but I don't see the strength of schedule thing as a huge issue in determining our outcome. Similarly, I also see both Miami and the Jets as weaker than last year and more beatable, so I can't see us going 0-4 in those games. 2) Your "on the bright side", what makes you think that something this year will be more serious to Ralph than collapsing a 5-1 team into a 7-9 team last year? I don't see a change happening. 3) I see our offense broken down position by position better than last year (with our LT mystery, but we had one of those last year at this point too...), and I see our defense broken down position by position as better than last year (don't underestimate having Schobel AND Maybin in the final 10 weeks of the season, when neither played the final 10 weeks of the season last year). So better team, not so different schedule, and the safe coaching staff that has guided us to 7-9 year after year and you are convinced of AT LEAST a two game worsening? And because we need a new QB and to shore up the line? I happen to like Trent's ability (but not our coaches) and think we worked on the OL pretty well this off season (even though Walker is not our long term solution at LT, he can be as good as Super Bowl LT Mike Gandy and not a glaring weakspot). I don't mean to attack your post specifically, but I'm personally a little frustrated with the negativity without much supporting reasoning that is pretty common in this board. To me 5-11 is like 12-4...it represents a possibility, but a prediction more attached to fan emotion than reasoning.

I don't want to repeat my posts, but I am still not clear on why our team is supposed to be so much worse than the 7-9 we have hit (frustratingly) the last three seasons. I think the 5-11 and 4-12 crew is in the "Nah, that girl would never talk to me" crowd and is probably pessimistic through cowardice and fear of failure. I think we have a better overall offense than last year, and I think we have a better overall defense than last year. I think our coaching will be frustratingly identical to last year. I think we will be 8-6 or 9-5 when not playing New England. So I am saying 9-7 but hoping for a lucky bounce to get us to 10-6, and know that 8-8 is very possible especially with any important injuries. Preseason ups are never as high as they seem and preseason downs are never as low as they seem. Even if we get manhandled in week 1 to drop to 0-1, I think that is our hardest game of the entire season, and will maintain my optimism until at least week 2. Go Bills

Can you elaborate on why you think this team is substantively worse or schedule substantively harder than the last three years when we won 7 games each year. I'm putting the Jauron stuff separately. I think he is soft and nice and overmatched in the NFL. I was disappointed when he was not fired after last season, but that is separate from the negativity about what this football team will do this season that I don't tend to agree with. Here are some of my observations: 1) QB play should be better this year than last...not too tricky after a bad year by Trent and with another year under his belt. 2) WR play better this year. TO, plus he frees up evans, plus possible other contributors without any losses or players on the decline. 3) RB play similar to last year. Three games missed by Lynch hurt early, but we know Freddie is talented, and this might lead to a fresher Marshawn later in the season. 4) O-Line play. I think weaker, but am hoping I am wrong. I think Walker will be weaker than Peters sub-par year last year, and I think starting two rookie guards will take some time to gel, but except for Walker filling in for a lazy Peters, I think this line will likely be stronger than last year after a few more games of playing together. 5) TE. No real comment here. Probably better than last year, but not a big part of our offense unfortunately. End result, a better offense than last year 6) D-Line better: Getting Schobel back and healthy and adding Maybin makes this pretty clear. Usual suspects at DT but with nobody worse off or on the downside of their career. 7) LB: Better. I expect Poz to take a step forward, and the rest of the pieces should be similar or better. 8) Secondary: Better. Have some young guys who should be better on the balance. We will miss Greer, but I think the year for McKelvin and the guys we have make this unit better than last year. End result, a better defense than last year. Special teams I expect to continue to be a strength, could be better could be worse, but I don't have any real reason to think one or the other. So for our weaknesses, flaws, and the softness of Jauron, our team I think is starting the season better than last year (and previous years). New England is clearly in a better position, and while I am rooting for us twice, we likely have those two losses like each of our 7 win seasons, and I would put us as a heavy underdog in the opener which would be a nice stunner upset if we win, but reasonably that is a game more likely to be lost. I think Miami will be worse than their big run last year, and that the Jets will struggle with a rookie QB instead of a Hall of Famer. The rest of our schedule is relatively normal and there is too much turnover in the league year to year to predict too much (last year Arizona was supposed to be an easy game, not a road matchup against the NFC champion). So, for all the range of possibilities there are, I still don't get the rationale that people think are doomed to be worse than 7-9, and that somehow a loss in week 1 ruins our season. I'm always an optimist, but I think a realist rational optimist. Go Bills

No no, 40 time and bench press reps are all that matter. Don't you know that after pushing the 225lb OT back 22 times Maybin will be too tired to continue? While Freeny could not only push him back another 4 times, he also could get to the quarter back two tenths of a second quicker if he lined up 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage. While I know that formation is very tough on the long snapper, it really is an outstanding option when a team is intentionally taking a safety from midfield. Let's remember, it is football that matters, not training camp and not draft position and not combine numbers. I would have preferred to get Maybin in earlier, but fortunately as people repeat very often, pass rushing DE is a position that requires less study, and it is more likely that his natural talent will be helping the Bills win football games sooner rather than later. In either case I am happy for him to have one of the 50 game day lunch pails starting next weekend, and look forward to him helping the Bills win football games over the next five seasons. And if you want to blame his agent or him, you would have to know that Russ offered this same money before camp, otherwise it was just as much the Bills playing the game too. I don't like the whole rookie contract stuff either, but it is what it is, and this is a guy I am happy to have playing football for us starting Monday.

Fun thing to compare simply and be happy with Wood as a good guy and a good player, or talk about a rookie guard vs. a pro bowl LT, but what people are leaving out is money, and that is necessary to evaluate. There is a huge cost savings respect to Peters, especially in terms of the extension that would have been necessary and he was signed to in Philly. Otherwise it is like comparing Spencer Johnson and Albert Hayensworth, both of whom were signed for just money and no players or draft picks. So given that we get to control Wood, a hard nosed quality player, for a number of years at reasonable cost, and Peters would have either been a single unhappy year or a huge contract, I am very pleased with the move. I think we increased our football value, and getting the most value out of the budget across the roster is the key to winning football and what our hated rivals to the east do so well. I actually think if the situation were similar in New England, Bellichick would have been fine moving Peters for those picks and selecting Wood, and would have said no player is more important than the team. But, the big question mark here, since we passed on Oher, and didn't sign another LT, and Bell is a future possibility but not ready, is if the Walker experiment gets a passing grade. As I have said in other posts, Walker doesn't have to get a ticket to Hawaii for this to be a good move, he just has to be pretty good. If he is not pretty good, and if Bell can't be pretty good in his place or Chambers, we are in for a very long hard season. If Walker can be pretty good, we have improved in so many other positions and we can start enjoying the great success of Wood, laughing at Peters and his payday, etc. But if we can't get pretty good LT play this season, then this trade is a short term disaster because we gave up a very good player at that most important position without a decent backup plan, and that will drag us down all season long and it won't matter how Wood plays in the evaluation of this trade.

No. The only way us fans are going to have a really good idea how much Bell improves is to see him play. He does not need to play in games to improve, and while I hope he explodes into a starting tackle soon, it might not happen very soon. Butler is good with lots of playing time, and Walker is a big strong veteran with lots of playing time and I don't see Bell jumping either on the depth chart in the short run. I'm still hoping that Bell can be our future LT and am excited to hear more about him and see him play when he gets a chance, but I also know that is far from a sure thing, and given his current experience, he can improve a great deal in practice without playing before getting his shot if Walker and Butler are healthy.

Walker is not a prototypical LT, has not had that as his role, and I agree is getting put out of position in a way that has the potential to have him vilified for a coaching choice, so wanting to rein in expectations seems logical. I also would have liked Oher at 11 and Ngata at 8, but don't like to focus on past drafts and am happy with who we got and they guys we have. At the moment we simply do not have a proven LT on the roster, and I prefer playing Walker out of position to give it a shot rather than playing Fred Jackson there . So we are taking a big chance there, but Oher would have been a chance too, and not trading Peters would have been a big gamble as well. Langston is big, powerful, and intelligent, which are three things going for him as he tries to be good at a new position that is a key position. But he also is slow and inexperienced and playing next to a rookie guard which are three things working against him. I think we all agree that his success is very uncertain, and is the key to our season. I am worried and wary overall, and look forward to seeing our line in action. Until then it is hard to judge, but I think it is also obvious our line will be better than the unit that started last season 4-0, and has a bright future even if Walker ends up not being our long term solution at LT. My guess goes something like this. I am sure some people would remove some likelihood from the good options to add to the bad options, but I'm somewhat moderately optimistic 5% he proves to be an awesome LT and goes to Hawaii 20% he proves to be a good LT and we don't notice him much and are happy as Trent has time and we talk about the receivers 50% he proves to be a passable LT, and while not a strength his role on the team is not a huge plus or minus 20% he struggles and is a weakspot without being a complete disaster 5% he is a complete disaster, can't move fast enough, and is temporarily replaced during the season and permanently during the off season.

Mike Gandy? Never heard of him. But if he is good enough to play LT in the Super Bowl then I am interested. Russ, can you make a few calls so we can see what he would look like in a Bills jersey? I am hopeful for Bell as well, as I am worried that Walker's reach might not overcome his lack of lateral quickness. But based on what I have been hearing out of all the broken record national outlets, I would like to take the OVER on the Bills line, and I think at the end people will say "You know, it was a big gamble, but in the end they were pretty solid". Not talking about Walker bringing his family to Hawaii or Wood winning offensive ROY, but I think this group can be good. I also think that the no huddle will keep the speed rushers on Walker's side a little off their normal pace and his reach will come in handy more than it would otherwise. And I'm a big Brad Butler fan and think he will be fine there. And technique matters a little less at guard where I think our two rookies can likely be solid very early on.

But whatever team takes Crabtree should not base the decision on year 1 contribution. And we have no idea if TO, Parrish, etc are here in two three four years. If you think Crabtree is the best player available at #11 in terms of what he can contribute over five years you take him, and let smart decisions from 2,3,4,5 years ago (not that we have them) fill in next year. I think that is a crucial aspect to building a great and consistent team. If you take less talent and value because you don't really need that position, you are instilling a philosophy of mediocrity and will consistently have less talent to spread around your team. I still agree the general premise is silly, but if he were there at #11, and we don't have anybody higher on our board in terms of expected 5 year impact, then I take him in a heart beat unless we get even more 5 year impact value trading down. Use the draft to inject as much five year timeframe talent as possible into your team and use free agency to address needs. When the differences are close, okay, take the player you need more, and slightly different logic with one-guy-is-going-to-play positions of QB, K, P. Although now having said that I would be crushed if we took a DB because he was the best player available

I think this is pretty simple. If Crabtree is available at #11 (I highly doubt it), we have four options: 1) Take him and keep him 2) Take him and trade him later 3) Trade down 4) Pass on him and take someone else The first three are possible, the fourth is as silly as thinking that he will be there at #11.

I think that as teams have to draw up gameplans for both Evans and TO, while both of these guys will thrive, there is probably the most room for improvement from Hardy and Roscoe, each of which have slightly unusual talents (really big vs. crazy quick) and could be used very interestingly in three and four wide sets. While I think boring but good Josh Reed is still ahead of them for now and will stay that in a vanilla style offense, I could really see Roscoe getting some (sorry for the cliche) Welker room underneath, and I could see the ability for Hardy to be consistently in mismatches using his size, when the top two targets TO and Evans are drawing the main attention and best defensive players. Will be tough since Evans and TO will want the touches and not enjoy being decoys, so I don't see the alternates like Hardy getting a lot of quantity like a Welker does, but there is a lot of room for quality and mismatches. Who benefits the most from this and from TO? I still think it is Lynch, who suddenly sees more space and can actually get some of his yards before engaging beast mode.

Let's take a deep breath, and look at the actual impact of this: 1) Salary Cap: Minimal savings, but we really don't care that much because we are not going to hit the cap. 2) Dollars in budget/ralph's wallet: We save a bunch of real dollars this year, and in the next couple years, which allow us increased flexibility or Ralph to leave more in his will. 3) Roster Talent: We are obviously worse off right now, because he was 1st on our depth chart, and was not terrible. But there is a TON of time to improve this. The hope is that the dollars saved in #2 can lead to other combined moves in #3 that make us a better football team. Potentially better at LG specifically, but if we are a little worse at LG and better at other positions to compensate that is fine too. Dockery was an okay player paid like a great one. Riding out his entire contract would have made that mis-evaluation more hurtful to the Bills.

This is true of receivers in general. They are subject to how they are gameplanned against, how the playcalling and flow of the game go, etc. I don't think Lee is in that top-5 elite category, but his value will not be known without a more consistant performance from the O and seeing if once in a while he can run across the middle of the field. I still think that Turk and Trent are more responsible for Lee's occasional disappearance than he is, and I hope this gets fixed soon.

Yeah, the only two worth considering (meaning could have reasonably been picked at 8 and I would rather have) are Cutler and Ngata. I think JP still had too much upside and the team too many weakspots at that time to make the Cutler move, but if we are going to talk about a QB it has to be the guy breaking Elway records (who was my top QB choice along with a lot of others at the time), and not the noodle armed pretty boy who has never seen snow. But we need to move on from this pick. If we could have we would have taken Huff and that would have been worse. Whitner is a solid football player who doesn't do well when compared to Polamalu or Sanders, but is not our weak point. More impact at 8 would have been great, but I'm past it and there are other picks I'm less happy about. Right now I'm more concerned with our 2009 draft though...

I have to admit I was disappointed with the news, but the reality is that there is NO way if DJ was fired that we would get a coach enough better to make it worth while. A mediocre low priced retread or new guy wouldn't outperform DJ. I think our talent level was 9-7 this year, and with a core of young players getting into their prime and a hopefully good draft with decent draft position, I fully expect our talent to be 10-6 talent next year. If they can get a clue on play calling on offense (a big if), I think the rest of this ship is in good shape. Creative math: Take last year's 4-2 division record and this year's 7-3 non-division record and we are 11-5. So DJ is DJ and we know his weaknesses and he won't outsmart Belichick. But what are the chances he keeps his hands off the offense and Turk shows progression in his second year? This is my biggest worry, and a place where my optimism is guarded, but hopefully that can offset things, and with good OC stuff happening we can be a little closer to the Dungy lead Colts.