Koufax

Exactly! I was getting ready for my reply to the typical "with the first pick in the 2011 draft the Buffalo Bills select..." post, but then you have us at 6-10, which is okay for a pessimist. The biggest thing I would say from my observations in the past, is that the schedule NEVER plays out how it looks. Two years ago we had @Arizona as a win by just about everybody, because it is Arizona and they are terrible. Whoops, but then they were a Super Bowl team, and we got destroyed, but no chance against the Chargers and @ Denver, but we won both of those games. We might feel like we are locked into 5 to 7 win mediocrity, but the simple truth is the rest of the teams have way too much turnover and variation from year to year for the schedule to be what it seems. It is kinda like the the third round of the draft: not a good place for accurate quick assessments by the casual fan. Regardless of how our team comes together (I remain optimistic), three teams on our schedule will be a bunch worse than we would expect and three teams on our schedule will be a lot stronger than we expect. If Mauron were still coach I would expect us to be in line for six or seven wins, but still wouldn't put my money on which ones. With the new sheriff in town I would put us down from five to ten wins and have no idea which.

Don't forget the 7. Injuries. There is no way (knock on Eric Wood) that this year can be like last, and as our injuries regress to the mean we are a healthier team. Minuses: 1) New schemes on both sides of the ball will take a little getting used to, but hopefully that doesn't hold us back too much. 2) TO and Schobel could take two of our more talented players off the roster, otherwise we lose nobody we will miss. 3) Bobby April. Hopefully his philosophy sticks, but losing him AND having a huge turn over of the coaching staff who might otherwise carry the torch would lead me to believe our special teams are likely to suffer somewhat. I'm on the 8-8 kool aid diet. This is not the year we win it all, we all know that. What would be nice is to feel some excitement and progress right away, and as the season winds down calculating playoff scenarios instead of draft scenarios even if we come up short. The later in the season we play meaningful games instead of just playing out the season the better.

If we liked him more we would have taken him in the 6th where even Marsha was picked. He is competing to be #3 this year with hopes of grooming into #2 (which as we have seen in recent years is an important role across the NFL), but that is fine with me for a 7th rounder. But I officially hope he is instead the super surprise who has people saying "Levi Brown" where they now say Colston.

Private message me and I will take your lunch money on that line, unless that is just a depressed fan talking who hasn't gotten over Scott Norwood. So what you are saying, is that in a year when we had everything go wrong (McKelvin fumble, everybody injured, Mauron no-huddle, fire your OC and cut your LT right before the season, change coaches during the season) and won 6 games, that suddenly we are so much worse than that is the "best" we can hope for? With a weaker schedule I might add? Sorry, but you are way way off here, so let's make a deal. You sit tight, and we will let you know when we have six wins whether it is halfway through the 2010 season or the conclusion of the 2013 season, and you can come back and root for #7 (that Mauron achieved every season he got the chance). We did not solve QB, but don't you think it is likely with Chan working with Edwards (if he wins the open competition) that we will be better there? We did not solve LT, but do you really think we are worse off than 2010 when Bell was thrust in with zero experience next to a couple rookies in an ill-advised no-huddle and then got hurt? Ditto the rest of our line. I expect more out of Wood-Leivitre-Meredith in 2011 than in 2010. Butler would be the loss, but he didn't exactly suit up for 16 last season. It will remain to be seen how our conversion to a 3-4 goes, but we added some big bodies, get Mitchell back from injury, a maturing Poz healthy, and hopefully something rather than nothing from Maybin. A Schobel retirement could have a negative impact, but I see the front 7 better than last year no matter what. Secondary was strong last year and with Byrd getting his wings under him as a second year player, and McKelvin back healthy, I would expect it to be stronger. Receivers right now look worse, without TO and Reed, but that is depth chart, not performance. Pretty hard not to do better than 2010 in terms of performance here. Backfield? We got likely the most dynamic playmaker of the draft ready to make big plays from Day 1. Freddie had a great year, but we are so obviously better here. Special Teams? I miss Bobby April already, so I don't know how much we feel that loss, but getting McKelvin healthy for the return game (and mixing in some Spiller) should help there. So if you ask me (and you shouldn't...I'm a baseball guy who just loves this team), we are clearly improved from a 6-10 bad luck team who had the worst injury season I have ever seen. I don't see how that turns us into a 4-12 team with a six win ceiling, but like I said I am happy to take your money if you weren't just being melodramatic. And P.S.: Never "hope" for the losingest outcome. For every Peyton there is a Jamarcus, I look forward to drafting #32 some day, but I will happily take 8-15 even without the playoffs over 1,2,3. Go Bills!

Ditto...nobody necessarily better than the best of Trent/Fitz/Brohm coming out of camp for 2010. 2011 is a ways away and while I wouldn't have minded seeing Clausen, I would have been very disappointed if we didn't get a NT. OT you just have to think that they didn't like any of the available guys enough with the #41 pick. I like Bell, don't know enough about the possibility of the late guys we picked contributing, but still wish there was a 2nd or 3rd round fit that made sense at LT. We will see how it goes and if the decision is right, but I don't care about being big losers for not getting Kiper's "needs". If we are losers because they don't like the talent of the guys we got then I would be more worried.

Campbell is more of an upgrade over Bell than McCoy is over Trent. I still trust Nix to get us the BPA although as a know nothing football fan I hope the BPA is one of those two

11 more picks before we pick and still Brown and Campbell and McCoy on the board.

Cody to Baltimore. A big change on their overall philosophy...taking two front 7 guys this round I just see him more likely to be lazy and blow up to 400 and am not sad we missed him.

15 more picks before we go and still some players we like a lot on the board, including both Campbell and Brown at LT. After one of them goes we could trade up for the other if that is what we want, there is still Colt, or we could take BPA.

Yeah, because we are worse now than the Holcomb, Losman, Edwards, Fitzpatrick teams that have not sniffed a 3 win season. At least you didn't tock about #1 and Locker I will say it again. I don't know how good Clausen will be overall, but I think Trent outperforms him in 2010. And I think NT was a bigger need than LT. Still some good LT's left too... Only 22 more picks before we get to pick again, and there are some quality players at our positions of need. Either for a trade up or to see who falls to us.

They took the top guy (per their thoughts...I'm not big on Cody either) at what I consider the top position of need and one of the hardest positions to find guys for or switch guys in for. I don't know much about him, but I am very happy to get the top NT available here. I don't think Clausen is necessarily better in 2010 than Edwards, I don't think Campbell is necessarily better in 2010 than D.Bell. I DO think that Kyle was not going to hold down the NT position, and I didn't know where we were otherwise going to fill this. Would he have fallen to our 3rd round? Could we have traded down with this pick or traded up with our 3rd? Probably. But I would guess we got a good football player at our most important position of need.

I agree with the conventional wisdom of the three positions of need, and would love to see one of these filled obviously, and think it is very likely. However if there is a better player available at another position (DE, LB, WR) who clearly rates out as a better talent and contributor over the next five years, I would rather have the better player. 1) I'm not as concerned about our 2010 roster holes as I am us starting a long cycle of adding talented football players to our roster. BPA over need. 2) I'm not 100% convinced that Clausen is a better 2010 QB than Trent if we are drafting for need, or that any of the LT are guaranteed to be better than D. Bell on day 1 either. I definitely think Cody is a better 3-4 NT on day 1 than Kyle Williams or whoever we are filling in there, so he would be the pick for me if we are putting need over talent. To be a need pick, you have to actually be definitely better than the guys on the depth chart you have, not just play the position. So that is a talent evaluation and not a positional evaluation which you seem to be indicating you want to be the deciding factor with our next pick.

I still think Bell has some upside, especially compared to some of these second round guys. Remember he was very raw, and was thrust into the starting lineup at the last minute. I have to think that he is still has the physical talent and will have gotten better in his understanding of the game and technique through both his playing time pre-injury, and the entire year of studying and learning even after the injury. I would have loved Okung, but I'm not convinced right off that there is someone else who as a rookie will be so clearly better than a more experienced Bell. Of course without Butler he could also compete for RT, and adding a new talent to the mix certainly will help our team. But will it be as big a difference as a NT or QB could be? Depends how you evaluate Bell/Trent/Kyle. I still think Trent has some upside if he can shake his concussion after effects and get back to the QB who was 4-0 and throwing the ball downfield a couple years ago, and Gailey might be a good fit to get that out of him. We definitely have no 3-4 NT on the roster, while in Bell and Trent we have some guys who have upside and downside and the Gailey/Nix evaluation about who those two guys really are will determine our pick.

Hmmm...top half of first round rusher who ran for 1000+ his first two years, including tough hard yards for a bad team with a bad line and weak passing game, and then had one down year after a suspension for a disaster offense? No value? I definitely see some teams seeing good value and talent and wanting to add him. Not sure what that amounts to as a draft pick, but is he really more damaged goods than Willis when we got two thirds for him?

No Chance. This isn't the 80s, and he isn't Adrian Peterson. maybe 20 CJ, Fred, but probably a more even balance initially. Both fresh and dynamic. I agree he shouldn't be one of three, but I see him in the slot sometimes with Freddie in the backfield, and on the sidelines too at times, and I see him more impactful. Let's hope we find a better use for him than Reggie Bush who has been under used and hasn't fit in, but I think he is a better between the tackles runner than Bush and easier to fit in.

I have to agree. If this is YOUR guy, he is your guy because he represents the best value you can get with that pick. Any prospective deal could offer you more value. Give the other teams the full 10 minutes to see if someone gets desperate and makes a mistake and offers you too much. Then pick Spiller with one minute left. I don't know why giving the other teams 8 more minutes to make a desperate mistake and then picking Spiller isn't a better idea. I actually really like the pick, and the way some of the other guys fell makes me feel that my lower impression of these guys might have been warranted (Bulaga, I'm talking about you). Let's see how these guys do tomorrow and if they can make some tactical decisions and not just talent decisions.

Awesome! We weren't going to pass against them anyway. We don't throw to receivers, and two of our rivals picked CBs. Go Bills!

Bulaga goes to GB to be their RT. I am happy we didn't take him at #9 for LT, but is a good RT at #23.

Bulaga, Clausen, and Dan Williams now all fall to the 20s...good pick on Spiller, and great to not reach on any of those three needs who are available later if we want to trade up and would have been a reach at #9.

So Bulaga, Dan Williams, and Clausen are all still there at #18. One of them will necessarily fall into the 20s. Some room for trading up, but the other teams seem to be agreeing that those guys weren't top 10 picks either.

No, 2018 was my sarcastic response to the post I was quoting saying 3-5 years before competing and another 3 before contending. I think that you draft top talent for their overall contribution over the next five years (including the first and second year), and Spiller is a great pick for that. You can't look out as far as the person I was quoting keeps insisting. I like spiller over the next five years a lot and think he has a legitimate argument for BPA which is always my first choice.

Been a tough decade (or two) as a Bills fan. I understand your depression and lack of optimism or excitement. I cannot blame you. But I am glad you are not running the show. Thinking about the big picture and not the need is great, but planning to be bad for 3-5 years and planning on who you need 6-8 years out (3-5 + 3) is pretty funny. If you are thinking that far out then you take BPA at EVERY pick EVERY time. Who do you have graded higher than Spiller? Again not my favorite pick, but I think in 2015 when you are starting to turn your TV back on we will be pretty happy with it and glad we have him and not Bulaga. And if we are looking that far out, we can pick QB next year, sit him another year, and let him play in 2012 and still have six years to mature into your 2018 champion you are drafting for.

Hmmm...while the Demetrius Bell stock is down, he is still a talented project who will now have another year under him (but I don't think will be our starter). I kinda like Wood-Hangartner-Leivitre-Meredith. Remember our injuries, and remember that LT is huge in pass protection, but the other four guys count in the run blocking. Getting a special player is nice. We will see how it works out.

LOL!!!! I usually am a BPA guy and focusing on the top 5 year contribution, but I think you have to think about what's going on here prior to 2018. If we are really worried about 8 years out then maybe the Maybin pick will be a home run. I am concerned at NT and QB and LT, but I don't see Claussen as a home run here and I don't see either Davis or Bulaga as so much better than Demetrius Bell. I would rather have had Dan Williams, but it is hard to argue with BPA impact player.

This guy is a better football player than Clausen or Bulaga. Not sure on Anthony Davis. We get all NEED-y here in the peanut gallery, but maybe we could start taking the best football players, and be happy with it. I would rather have had Dan Williams I think and some other guys, but this is not a Whitner over Ngata no brainer, and I think we got a great football player. Let's see what we can get for Marshawn and hope CJ is a Thurman, Faulk type player and we will all be happy. Draft for needs and you end up keeping needs. We need the best five year production and talent out of this spot, and I'm not sure we didn't get it.