Koufax

These are the five things we need to do to win? I think you are overstating it significantly. 1) 200+ yards Freddie AND 2) ZERO turnovers AND 3) Turnover inducing pressure all game long AND 4) Multiple long TDs for TO and Lee AND 5) Big plays from unknowns Hmmm...those all seem like good things that would be nice to have, but I don't think by any stretch of the imagination those five things have to all happen for the Bills to win, so I think your fundamental premise is flawed. If all five of those things happen we would likely win big right? And we could likely win 24-20 or 17-14 without all five of those things happening, but just some assorted good things happening. I see a lot of similarities with the 2006 Opener @NE which we lost 19-17, in which Losman threw for more yardage and fewer INTs than Brady, Willis didn't know what down it was, and the first play from scrimmage was a Brady fumble/Fletcher TD. That was a winnable game we let get away, and I think we are a stronger defense now, and I think the 2006 Pats* team is more similar to this year's than the 16-0 2007 or the Matt Cassel 2008. I'm not saying that it is going to happen, but NONE of the things you listed happened in that game and we could have won it quite easily despite it being on the road and the participation of Brady and Bellichick. So Monday is a very hard game, and if things go wrong it could be an ugly loss, but I think people are both underestimating the Bills, and overestimating the Walker-less Pats* with a bunch of losses on D, and Brady's first start in a year.

Yeah, and last year you would have seen sure wins against week 1 power rankings #2 San Diego, #5 Jacksonville, #9 Seattle? Come on. The fan perception looking at the calendar in week 1 and remembering what we think these teams are is not in step with the ever changing NFL. Betting the under on 7 is fine, it is your right as a legal gambler to gamble your dollars how you might choose. But zero wins for this team is ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous. I would say the same about the chances of being 1-15 or 2-14...this team is just not that bad. It could be a fun season, it could be a rough season, but it will fall in between 3-13 and 11-5 99.9% likely.

Okay, so I know Power Rankings count about as much as the preseason, but I also think predicted strength of schedule does as well. Remember last year when we had Chargers, Jaguars, and Seahawks as top 10 opponents? None of them turned out to be that. So everyone is talking top five draft pick based on our tough schedule, but here is what I found. I am using ESPN Power Rankings here, which means a large grain of salt. 2008 Schedule based on week 1 rankings: Average Opponent: #17.5 Average of victories: #17.7 (#2, #5, #9, #22, #27, #28, #31) Opponent Breakdown: 5 @ top 10, 3 @ 11-19, 8 @ 20+ 2008 Schedule based on Week 18 power rankings: Average Opponent #19 Average of Victories: #24.8!!! (#12, #22, #25, #26, #28, #30, #31) Opponent Breakdown: 4 @ top 10, 4 @ 11-19, 8 @ 20+ Now compare that to our 2009 Schedule: Average Opponent #16.4 Opponent Breakdown: 5 @ top 10, 5 @ 11-19, 6 @ 20+ My points being the following: 1) Our 2009 schedule as of week 1 is not much harder than our 2008, but is a little harder 2) You never know, and our opponents will likely finish up the year very different than our current estimations. Could be harder, could be easier, but it is guaranteed not to be exactly what we or the pundits expect. Last year beating San Diego would have been considered a no chance, and most people would be filling out their guesses with us beating a weak Arizona team. The Seahawks were a Super Bowl contender and so were the Jags. The Dolphins were push overs. None of that turned out to be true. So what are the surprises going to be this year? Tennessee a middle of the pack team? Houston a playoff team? Saints picking in the top 5 after a couple injuries? Carolina in the bottom 10 or the top 10? This is what makes the NFL season so fun. While the general attitude in Bills Nation has gone from frustrated with mediocrity after three 7-9s to worrying who we are going to pick with our top 5 draft pick, there is so much that can happen in the course of a season, and I find that in itself reason for optimism. Go Bills!

I too thought that was an embarrassing article by someone who clearly does not get it. There is a chance that they could go 0-16 just like there is a chance that they could go 16-0. But this is a team that for all their terrible struggles has won SEVEN games three years in a row, and that has been disappointing. I just don't get how we are seven games worse when: D-Line: Way better with Schobel and Maybin added Linebackers: Better as they play together and Poz develops Secondary: Better as the whole unit is still on the upside of their career and playing together. Special Teams: A push, but the best in the league all around Receivers: Better than last year with the addition of TO Backs: Probably worse to have Lynch sit three, but Freddie is good and Marshawn is still young and will be fresh for 13 Tight Ends: Couldn't be worse than last year really, negligible but at least as good. QB: I would have to expect better than last year with another year experience. O-Line: Where everyone has their doom coming from, but really: RT: Walker 2008 vs Butler 2009? Butler was good enough to have Walker cut, and Walker was uninspiring last year RG: Butler 2008 vs Levitre 2009. I consider this a downgrade for now as I liked Butler at guard C: Can't consider this a downgrade since we were pretty weak, but I have to see how it plays out LG: Dockery 2008 vs Wood 2009. Early to say, but I will put my money on Wood over the $49m bust LT: Peters 2008 vs Bell 2009. Obviously this is an unknown and a downgrade, but Peters was not stellar last year and Bell is athletic and motivated, so while this is the focus point of attention right now, I don't see it as a 7 win swing. Schedule: Harder, but you never know before the season starts how the schedule plays out. We play better 2008 teams than last year, but when we beat the Seahawks last year everybody thought they were a playoff team, and when we lost to the Cardinals everyone thought that was a shock, so let's not overemphasize the importance of this quite yet. My prediction: we probably start 0-1 and DiCesare will be 15 games away from calling it, but I will take the over on his 4 any time with as much money as I can scramble together, and I will obviously take the over on his 0,1,2,3 possible wins :D

I know a lot of people are jumping off bridges, but I think the release of Walker makes us a better football team, and I think it is what Bellichick would have done if in the same situation on Tuesday (although he would have been smart enough to avoid getting in that position in the first place). I think this would have happened sooner if Bell had been healthy. I think Bell and Butler are both better than Walker, and while I kept my fingers crossed since I expected him to start, he was a mistake like Dockery when signed, and today we are past that mistake. I think our line for Monday is the best line we have had in place in a while, and while it will make some mistakes as the three newbies get some playing time, this move increases our (slim) chances at getting to the playoffs, increases our chances of going 8-8 or better, and is a positive step in this team's goal to win a Super Bowl. And remember, whether we were to go 12-4 or 4-12, this New England game was very likely to be on the loss side of things, and while I hope we shock the NFL with an upset, it is week 2 that is our first game that we really need to / should win.

I personally feel it is likely we will lose this game and it is likely we will lose this game by more than 10.5 points, but I laugh at the people who are convinced that it is a certainty or that 10.5 is not a reasonable starting line. First off, Vegas isn't picking the Pats*, Vegas is trying to get even money on both sides. Second 10.5 is a lot in the NFL. And we don't yet know if these are the 16-0 Patriots just because Brady is playing. I think Bellichick starts the season probably erring a little on the side of caution and being methodical, and I don't think he has any reason to have Brady run up the score, or drop back and throw bombs and risk meeting Mr. Maybin or his old friend Mr. Schobel on his fixed knee more than is necessary to ensure victory. I can see this being a 23-6 game that the Bills score a late touchdown in to make a 23-13 and cover, or something like that. Plus, the Bills defense is better than people think and the offense isn't going to be quite as bad as people think. Don't get me wrong, if I had to pick I would pick the Pats even with the 10.5, and I think it could very likely be ugly if things start going wrong, because no-huddle 3 and outs are MUCH worse than the slow boring 75 yard drives followed by a FG that we have come to hate. But this is the NFL, this is opening week of a QB who missed all season after a horrific injury, and I don't think this is college football like blowout is a certainty (although it is a possibility), and I think Vegas would be silly to make this a 16.5 or a 21.5 just because we feel like the Pats can score 50 and we might not score 5.

I love the move, but this was Ralph, not Dick. For whatever they say in the press conference, if Dick were deciding he would say "Turk is a good guy, he's working really hard trying to get better, and we expect a lot out of him" and settle for sucking. I don't think we can be worse than Turk, and a little fire under Alex will be good. As far as it being a disaster with timing as some others have said NO WAY! Van Pelt has been involved so nothing is taking a step backwards or retooling, but the fresh blood getting involved for our couldn't-be-worse offense could really be a positive. This does not affect our opening game which Turk was not going to do anything to help us cover the spread much less win. So the wild card aspect of it improves our chances in the opener, which is a game we should probably end up losing on a path to 5-11 or 11-5. As for the fifteen games that follow, I think this is a positive move for us. Would have been better to get a real coordinator in February, but I'll take what I can get now. Go Alex!

I think the first unit should have played some as punishment, etc. but I am not an NFL coach. Here are some of the decisions made by NFL coaches tonight: NOT PLAYING: Peyton Manning, Brady, McNabb, Flacco, Ryan, Carson Palmer D. Anderson, Brady Quinn, Cutler, Brees 1 SERIES: Collins, Rodgers, Sanchez, Eli Manning, Rothlisberger, Del Homme - 1 Series More than one series: Pennington, Warner So while I think we would probably want to err on the side of playing and getting something going, not playing the starters this week is not rocket science. Teams would rather have a bye than have to play, and I don't think this is a mistake necessarily.

Before telling someone what to do please ready the post. He did not compare him to Bruce, he compared him to all Bills TEs _since_ Bruce, which is a pretty unimpressive group, and then he compared him to Derrick Thomas (which is probably the unfair comparison and the one you should have addressed if you were feeling critical).

I like this. Taking them out to rest their Endzone-Free behinds doesn't seem to make any sense at all.

I have to agree with the general line of reasoning in this post. While I will never actually bet against the Bills (and in general think "strategic" sports betting instead of twenty bucks between rival fans is pretty stupid), I don't tihnk 10.5 is fair, and I don't think Vegas has realized the downside of the no huddle when overmatched. It gives more plays in which to be overmatched and makes the game longer. Bills teams of the past could have been solid at 10.5 not because they were better, but because they played a different slow down the game punt the ball deep style that could shorten games and lead to uninspiring 9 pt losses. So while I remain optimistic about the season, I think we might just get slaughtered in week 1 in front of the national audience. The good news is if you lose by 1.5 or by 21.5, you are still just 0-1 trying to get to .500 six days later against a beatable opponent.

Do you think Tebow falls to #11? Or you have reason other than preseason results to think that this team is substantially worse than last year's team. I look up and down the roster and don't think that our LT downgrade and loss of Greer outweigh our improved guards, more experienced QB, addition of an HOF receiver, addition of a 1st round pass rush specialist, addition of Schobel for the final 10 games at least on paper, additional experience for our very young defense who except for Stroud should all be on the upswing of their career getting a year more familiar with the defensive scheme. I would love to be pessimistic and join the sky is falling crowd, because it seems kind of a fun way to kill time during the preaseason, but I just don't see the substance of why this team is dramatically worse than last year. Sure the schedule could shape up harder (but you NEVER know going in, and I don't buy the BS valuations of the 2010 schedule based on 2009 performances...too early). Sure other injuries could happen. Sure Walker and then Bell could prove a complete disaster at LT (although I doubt both will be that bad). But right now I think this team is stronger than last year, despite the frustrating preseason performance, and despite the likely butt kicking we will receive in Foxboro as we drop to 0-1.

Ha ha....nice optimism. Look me up in four months, and I promise to be gentle with my "I told you so". This team is better than last year, but not a great team. Everyone is getting all uppity over some preseason struggles with the new line and the new offense. I think it will all look silly in a couple months and while we are likely to come up short of the playoffs, we will still be calculating the way we can get in in week 14 and 15 (maybe not in week 17, but I hope so...even if we don't make it in, I want the team playing for something on the 17th, not just playing out the season).

The 15th is a terrible day to reserve judgement until. If you want to reserve judgment (which I think is a pretty good idea). you need to reserve it for the 21st. We need people to remember that week 1 will be our hardest game of the year (harder than the road game in Tennessee), and whether you think the bills will be 6-10 or 10-6, you probably would have this penciled as a loss either way. We are struggling to come together as an offensive line, we have been playing without key new guy TO who is not going to get up to 100% right away and complete sync with Trent, and we are just starting with the no huddle. So week 1 will be tough because it is our first week, but also because it is on the road against our toughest opponent and a coach who consistently outsmarts us. So I don't think that judgments should change a great deal from Sept 13th to Sept 15th no matter how the game goes. Hopefully we play well and maybe we pull out the huge upset, but it could also be a very ugly game that starts a pretty good season otherwise.

I would like to boo this post. I am glad we have Fitzpatrick and that he has shown some signs of competence, because Trent has yet to play 16 games in a season, but I don't think a QB controversy gets us anywhere.

Really? I know 7-9 hasn't been fun, but this team has won 7 times each of the last three years, and usually it felt like we were better than that and were one or two plays away from being one or two games better than that (JP's Jet's game last year). So you think it can't get worse because we got shutout in preseason? This is still a 7-9ish team. I am becoming more pessimistic that DJ can turn it into a 10-6 team, but there is a long fall from the #11 pick to the #1 pick, and even though I'm sure many of the people on this board long to overpay that first pick, it is a rough 17 weeks that way. I do not see any reshuffling of the line happening, and I don't see a need to. Walker will be below average to above average, will get help from the tight end or running backs as they figure out where in that range he is, and hopefully will be pushed by Bell (who I can only see taking his place if Walker is hurt or a complete disaster).

Yeah, you are so right. The sky is falling! We will be longing for when JP fumbled us to 7-9 seasons and Mike Gandy was our LT. And all will be lost when we drop that opener in New England because without beating New England on the road we have no shot in our other fifteen games. And if you can't win in Pittsburgh in preseason you have no chance for anything good to happen all year! Okay, whoa, I had sarcasm lock on...just fixed it. 1) We are not a great team and will not be a great team this year. Winning the Super Bowl is really really unlikely this season, but clawing and scraping and hoping to get back to the playoffs and build on something instead of a 7-9 season seems pretty good to me right now. We should be heavy underdogs for every road game against an elite team, and if we rolled into Pittsburgh and took it to them and came away with a first half victory (the final score doesn't matter so much) it would be a shocker. Easier matchups than tonight: Weeks 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. That's good, because we are not going to be better than the best teams this year, and beating them will take some luck and good bounces. 2) Our O-Line is going to be a work in progress. I have said from the start that Walker is the weak link, and we should be hoping/praying for not-so-bad to pretty-good from him. I would love to see Bell slide in, but I don't see the coaches having the balls without injury. However, I would have every reason to expect a constant progression from our line as they come together, as Butler gets back to his old tricks, as the rookie guards get their feet under them, and as the team learns how much they might have to help Walker to keep him from hurting us. I expect better out of week 10 than week 3, and I sure as hell expect better as the season progresses than a practice game in August. 3) We need TO. We know this. We need his ability to get open, to make catches, but also to draw attention. Roscoe and Reed aren't real #2s and Lee has his problems as the #1. Trent is in a funk of not taking a shot downfield, and I think that is a problem I really would have liked him to get out of this week even if there were middle/deep interceptions in the process. But when TO is back things are different. 4) Our D held the champs to one first half touchdown and came within inches of breaking up a number of the Hines Ward catches. I think those inches are likely made up against more middle of the pack opponents. 5) To paraphrase Allan Iverson, we're talking about pre-season (repeat until you think it is funny). I would love to see things clicking, to see Trent go 10 for 10, most importantly to get the ball in the end zone, but preseason play is a TERRIBLE predictor of success. I am not worried about the big numbers, the QB ratings, the points or victories. I _am_ however concerned with failures on individual plays and our execution. 6) A good thing is that we have a couple more weeks before it counts, since we have a week 1 bye. (Sorry to get down on that game guys, but it is one we would need a last minute acquisition of Lawyer Milloy to compete, and is one that is most likely an L in the breakdown of a 6-10 season and most likely an L in the breakdown of a 11-5 season). We need to work out a lot of this crap before September 20th, because that is a game penciled in as a W in both 6-10 projections and 11-5 projections. 7) Dick is still not a great head coach, will never be, and gravitates towards safe results, which is only good when you are better than your opponents (like in his 13-3 season). The bad news is I think we have a good chance of being a lot better than people feel around here right now, and that means he keeps his job and another year at least. Go Bills!

Trent will be benched...for the final three quarters just like the other teams in the last pre season game. I would rather leave them out there until they score a TD or the game ends. But no, I definitely feel Trent is better than Fitzpatrick, and while we will likely be 0-1 to start the season, this team will progress and improve and do MUCH better than anybody feels right now.

Private message me and I will take the over on 4-12 for any amount you would like that I can afford Easy to get down, but we are not worse than our other 7-9 teams, and while our preseason offense has been pretty pathetic, we have been playing without TO, with our line still coming together, and tonight we played the defending champs on the road after playing a very good Green Bay team on the road. A lot of excuses, and yes, eleven of us TSW posters could have combined to lead our offense to zero points, but I do not think the sky is falling just yet, but will amusedly read all of the chicken little posts this week. That said, I get tired of the culture of mediocrity and play it safe. If Trent had looked further downfield maybe his INT wouldn't have been a pick six? And maybe he could take some more chances given that it is preseason, it doesn't count, and we can work on things? Disappointed with the play of our team so far, and know we will be starting the season 0-1, but excited about the 15 games after that.

Compared to last year where Walker was at LT in camp and Peters showed up at the last minute, didn't play week 1 and we were shuffling around within the first weeks of the season? Walker does not have the talent or ability of Peters head to head, and could be anywhere from pretty good to pretty bad, but my assessment of this O-Line is that it will be better than last year, and coming out of camp has more continuity and chemistry than we had last year.

So do you think our O-Line will be better or worse than last year? My money is on better even with Walker LT and two rookie guards. Maybe I'm wrong and overly optimistic, but I did not think that our line play was very good last year and think that we can approve with Butler at his natural position, two very talented guards (at the easiest position on the line where their physical talent can take over) a better center (not saying a lot), and a big smart slow guy taking over for a talented guy who didn't seem to care. So do you think our D-Line will be better or worse than last year? Hmm...add Maybin and a healthy Schobel, lose nobody. I'm going with better on this one too, and think the two Aarons will offset another year older for Stroud. So from the simplistic trenches only perspective I think we are better than the team that needed to fall on their sword to stumble to a tragic 7-9 (and was probably an 8 or 9 win team realistically), so we are better than what I think was an 8 or 9 win team. I think we are a 9-7 team right now, who can falter and do worse or maybe get lucky and do a little better. The 11-5 Pats* didn't make the playoffs last year, so we could easily come up short even at 9-7, but this is an improved team that has me excited to watch the season and know there is a better chance of a playoff spot than a top 5 pick. But realistically Jauron will probably find a creative way to turn my 9-7 team into a 7-9 team, so I am keeping all of my optimism handy, but not running to Vegas to put down real money.

Hmmm...that seems like a pretty significant shuffle for mid season (if that is what you mean by mid-season). I can see Bell beating out Walker only if Walker fails significantly or is hurt, and otherwise think Bell will be a 2010 impact. Butler is a natural RT and I can't imagine the coaches having a quick trigger with either of our rookie guards. Hangartner looks like he had one of the stronger games against GB, and seems like a rather reliable veteran who I don't see a capacity to screw up enough to have a shuffle. Especially with the no huddle, I think there will be patience on the line and it would take injuries or big failures for any shuffling. Now my personal reading of the tea leaves aside, I think that the Bell-Levitre-Wood-Butler-Walker line is pretty intriguing and maybe even stronger than what we have now, but having three in a row left to right basically as rookies (I know Bell isn't) would be WAY too much to throw at the blind side going into this season. I'm wishing Walker a nice boring season of pretty good, and think he is big enough and smart enough to do that, even if he lacks quickness and experience on that side. I would love Bell to emerge since we all agree on his upside, and I would love it to be based on him tearing things up in practice and not on failure or injury to Walker. But I don't see that happening, and am settling in for a long run of the status quo.

To quote Fargo, "I can't say I agree with your detective work there Norm". 1) I don't think the schedule difference is what people believe. Last year we had Oak, StL, and KC as easy games, but @Jax, @NFC Champ Ari, SD, @DEN, etc, I don't think was as easy a schedule as people think, and I don't think this year is much harder. Since we have a couple games on the list repeating these are the 7 games differenct 2008: SEA, OAK, @STL, @ARI, SD, SF, @DEN (we went 5-2 in these games) 2009: TB, NO, @CAR, HOU, @TEN, @ATL, IND Definitely harder on paper, but it remains to be seen what a week 17 INDY will be like, and how a few of those teams come together. Going into 2008 Seattle, Jacksonville, and San Diego were all playoff teams, but in 2008 their past didn't matter much. I'm not convinced that Carolina or Tennessee will be as good as last year, and the same goes for Atlanta, but more importantly the four most likely to win games we have (assuming Peyton is sitting out, which isn't for sure) are our home games. I don't think we will necessarily go 5-2 in these seven particular games, but I don't see the strength of schedule thing as a huge issue in determining our outcome. Similarly, I also see both Miami and the Jets as weaker than last year and more beatable, so I can't see us going 0-4 in those games. 2) Your "on the bright side", what makes you think that something this year will be more serious to Ralph than collapsing a 5-1 team into a 7-9 team last year? I don't see a change happening. 3) I see our offense broken down position by position better than last year (with our LT mystery, but we had one of those last year at this point too...), and I see our defense broken down position by position as better than last year (don't underestimate having Schobel AND Maybin in the final 10 weeks of the season, when neither played the final 10 weeks of the season last year). So better team, not so different schedule, and the safe coaching staff that has guided us to 7-9 year after year and you are convinced of AT LEAST a two game worsening? And because we need a new QB and to shore up the line? I happen to like Trent's ability (but not our coaches) and think we worked on the OL pretty well this off season (even though Walker is not our long term solution at LT, he can be as good as Super Bowl LT Mike Gandy and not a glaring weakspot). I don't mean to attack your post specifically, but I'm personally a little frustrated with the negativity without much supporting reasoning that is pretty common in this board. To me 5-11 is like 12-4...it represents a possibility, but a prediction more attached to fan emotion than reasoning.

I don't want to repeat my posts, but I am still not clear on why our team is supposed to be so much worse than the 7-9 we have hit (frustratingly) the last three seasons. I think the 5-11 and 4-12 crew is in the "Nah, that girl would never talk to me" crowd and is probably pessimistic through cowardice and fear of failure. I think we have a better overall offense than last year, and I think we have a better overall defense than last year. I think our coaching will be frustratingly identical to last year. I think we will be 8-6 or 9-5 when not playing New England. So I am saying 9-7 but hoping for a lucky bounce to get us to 10-6, and know that 8-8 is very possible especially with any important injuries. Preseason ups are never as high as they seem and preseason downs are never as low as they seem. Even if we get manhandled in week 1 to drop to 0-1, I think that is our hardest game of the entire season, and will maintain my optimism until at least week 2. Go Bills

Can you elaborate on why you think this team is substantively worse or schedule substantively harder than the last three years when we won 7 games each year. I'm putting the Jauron stuff separately. I think he is soft and nice and overmatched in the NFL. I was disappointed when he was not fired after last season, but that is separate from the negativity about what this football team will do this season that I don't tend to agree with. Here are some of my observations: 1) QB play should be better this year than last...not too tricky after a bad year by Trent and with another year under his belt. 2) WR play better this year. TO, plus he frees up evans, plus possible other contributors without any losses or players on the decline. 3) RB play similar to last year. Three games missed by Lynch hurt early, but we know Freddie is talented, and this might lead to a fresher Marshawn later in the season. 4) O-Line play. I think weaker, but am hoping I am wrong. I think Walker will be weaker than Peters sub-par year last year, and I think starting two rookie guards will take some time to gel, but except for Walker filling in for a lazy Peters, I think this line will likely be stronger than last year after a few more games of playing together. 5) TE. No real comment here. Probably better than last year, but not a big part of our offense unfortunately. End result, a better offense than last year 6) D-Line better: Getting Schobel back and healthy and adding Maybin makes this pretty clear. Usual suspects at DT but with nobody worse off or on the downside of their career. 7) LB: Better. I expect Poz to take a step forward, and the rest of the pieces should be similar or better. 8) Secondary: Better. Have some young guys who should be better on the balance. We will miss Greer, but I think the year for McKelvin and the guys we have make this unit better than last year. End result, a better defense than last year. Special teams I expect to continue to be a strength, could be better could be worse, but I don't have any real reason to think one or the other. So for our weaknesses, flaws, and the softness of Jauron, our team I think is starting the season better than last year (and previous years). New England is clearly in a better position, and while I am rooting for us twice, we likely have those two losses like each of our 7 win seasons, and I would put us as a heavy underdog in the opener which would be a nice stunner upset if we win, but reasonably that is a game more likely to be lost. I think Miami will be worse than their big run last year, and that the Jets will struggle with a rookie QB instead of a Hall of Famer. The rest of our schedule is relatively normal and there is too much turnover in the league year to year to predict too much (last year Arizona was supposed to be an easy game, not a road matchup against the NFC champion). So, for all the range of possibilities there are, I still don't get the rationale that people think are doomed to be worse than 7-9, and that somehow a loss in week 1 ruins our season. I'm always an optimist, but I think a realist rational optimist. Go Bills