Koufax

Since everyone has been big on the 2010 small sample size, I will point out the 1 rush each success of this game and take Spiller.

+1 I don't think Walsh's assessment was necessarily off, and I don't hold much against Trent. He was developing quite well until he got his marbles rattled, and he was never the same after that.

As long as in week 6 we don't travel to Arizona and have our QB suffer a career changing concussion, I am okay with this I'm excited about getting to 1-0, because then other things can happen. I don't think things end up as you draw them up ever. What we need to do is play good football and try to win one game at a time. There will be teams on the schedule much better than we expect and much worse. It happens every year so it is hard to plan ahead for what is going to occur. Plus teams suffer major injuries that derail plans and expectations. And I continue to say, while we should not be favored against the Pats for a long time, it is pretty likely that we will beat them as an upset long before we are the smart pick and favorite. I'm hoping that is in week three this year, and don't think it is as impossible as many seem to. But I won't bet the rent money on it.

I think he would be best off getting the starting RT position as a rookie, and then potentially be moved for his second year if he is up to it, allowing a full off season of OTAs and camp. I hope we do not see him at all at LT this year, because I think that could be too big a jump, and I actually like Bell more than Pears right now.

Compared to the Ralph, pay attention to the fact that there are a lot more corner and end zone seats that are different (I don't care for that angle when you are up high). I don't have my seats for the game yet, but have been to the stadium many times. On the plus side, Chargers fans are a lot less violent than some of the other California fans recently in the news, so I will feel safe wearing Bills gear.

Correction: we aren't beating the Patriots we will rightly be underdogs for both games against the Patriots You probably would have bet against them in the opener a couple years ago, when we were one McKelvin fumble away from the upset. We are a much inferior team, and I think even our dream 10-6 season would likely have 2 losses to the Pats this year. BUT, when we finally beat them again, it is very likely to be a lucky well played day well ahead of when we are the better team, so to act like it is impossible is really misunderstanding how the NFL works. Cleveland beat them badly last year, and these things happen. So I will be fully expecting them to pull off the upset each time we play them this year, but I will not turn in my Bills Fan membership card if we lose each one.

Yeah, who would ever want to stay in that cloudy sinkhole of San Diego which will never turn it around and keep drafting in the top 5 for years to come. Poor Philip Rivers has never had a chance to play a meaningful game or have any talent around him, and Eli sure pulled a fast one and avoided that nightmare. I agree that Luck will be better than Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell and others. I would probably even root against the Bills in week 17 if it made the difference, but we will likely not be close, and will have to trade up to get him. Also remember that Quinn and Clausen and Locker were supposed to be top picks a year ahead of their draft, so things can change, but Luck seems pretty clear to be a star. But rooting for the #1 pick as strategy before the season starts is pretty silly. I definitely want this team to be 1-0, then we can worry about game 2. Our O-Line is the same guys from last year and not the train wreck people think. Our defense is better, Fitz is getting a chance to settle in, CJ is going to take a step forward. I really have a tough time understanding the rationale for thinking this team is worse than the one that finished 4-4 after figuring out who their QB was, after Wood and Bell got closer to full speed off their injuries, and after settling in to the new schemes and coaching staff. Why does that same group adding Merriman and Dareus add up to being weaker? Because of a few series of starting players after no offseason workouts? I think this is a 7-9 team that I am hoping finds a way to over achieve and win 8 or 9 games and stay in this to the end. This is a better team and better coaching than Jauron's 7-9 teams had, yet the gloom and doom of Norwood Post Traumatic Stress Disorder has everybody thinking we will somehow be a disaster. I would love to have Andrew Luck, but I think he will not fall to the mid teens, and it will take a lot of picks to move up from there to the top slot, especially now that there isn't a $60-80 million contract involved with the top pick in the new CBA. Go Bills!

Spiller is no LT, but even though he got 339 carries as a rookie for a 5-11 team, he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, fumbled once per 67 carries, and had one 20+ every 48 carries, while Spiller Averaged 3.8, fumbled once per 37 carries, and had one 20+ for every 74 carries. LT with a huge 10 to 0 TD spread, but was the go to guy in all goal line carries. And receiving LT averaged 6.2 yards per catch with no TDs and a long of 27 and three fumbles while Spiller averaged 6.5 with a long of 41 and 1 TD and no fumbles. Again, clearly Spiller is no LT, but nobody is. But if you look at the averages when they touched the ball, Spiller isn't so far off. Buffalo has a worse O-Line and has Freddie Jackson, plus CJ hasn't learned to block. But when touching the ball as a rookie CJ wasn't that different from LT, and I am optimistic he will touch the ball more and do better this year. Having moved to San DIego just in time for the 2002 Chargers season and followed the team since, I see a lot of parallels. Unfortunately remember that after an 8-8 2002 the Chargers finished 4-12 in 2003 and the #1 pick before starting their run. I think we have more talent on our roster than people think, and I am taking the over compared to the general mood around here. This year should be an up year compared to last year and I see a more consistent improvement than the Chargers up and down 2001-2002-2003.

I know we are all upset over the offensive line (same guys as last year, minus Cornell Green and with two of them not coming off major injuries that limit practice). But remember, this is a team that finished 4-4 last year before fixing the Run D with Dareus, adding Merriman. We lose Evans and Whitner, but I still don't see how you can think we are worse than the team we had on the field last year in terms of talent. We have to play the games, but I don't think we finish the year at the bottom. I just don't see us being weaker than last year, and see a lot of reasons why we will be stronger.

Yeah, just a worthless 4th round pick. Not something valuable like say a #1 receiver and clubhouse leader former first round pick. Nobody would ever confuse a 4th round pick's value with a #1 receiver playmaker.

Rarely do I support lotto junkies (natural selection keeping the stupid people poor?), and I am one of the eternal optimists around here, but $50 is actual money, not just $1, and I think I would need a lot better than 100-to-1 to take the Bills to win it all. I'm rooting for it to happen, but don't bet the rent money unless you have another place to stay. I'm in Vegas right now, but have so far resisted to put any financial stake behind my general Bills optimism.

Who? Never heard of the guy. Is he any good? Joking aside, I am pretty optimistic about Bell. Limited football experience with great physical tools, another year under his belt, and this year not coming off a major surgery that prevented him from even practicing fully last year. I am unsure at RT having seen very little of Pears, and I am concerned about our depth if an injury happens, but I think Bell and our o-line overall should be fine this year.

I don't particularly like this trade. I think a low 4th is not a lot of value, but certainly is something that will help us in the future. But I think we are a worse team now because of it. Over five years I think we are better off, and Nix did add overall value to the organization. I would have been okay with a 3rd, very sad with a 5th, but I can live with a 4th. Randy Moss (different circumstances) got a 3rd. On the 2011 Bills side of things, we certainly have to navigate the morale and "why?" issue that Florence is vocalizing. I think that Evans has been a one trick pony for a while, and that trick worked well with JP, and isn't going to work so well with Fitz. NOt sure how much of that 1-dimension is Lee's fault, revolving QBs fault, or revolving coaching staffs, but the reality is he has not been able to emerge as as useful and valuable a player as we had hoped. I think in Chan's eyes, we are not much worse right now, and that his scheme will not use a lot of deep balls overall, and that getting a 4th for a decoy is probably fair. It remains to be seen who steps up with the opportunity, and if they can perform close to as well as Lee would have. And in terms of Florence's reaction, veteran players ALWAYS overvalue other veteran players, especially when good clubhouse guys like Lee, and so the outrage is common when a veteran is traded or cut, and usually overstated once the dust clears. Disappointed, but I understand, and I think we are slightly worse for 2011, but not significantly so, and the pick will help us in the future. Most of all I wish Lee well and will be rooting for the Ravens a little this year because of it. He suffered through a lot in Buffalo and was always classy. He deserves a trip to the playoffs, and I think he will get it.

I don't want to see Lee traded. I have always liked him and think he has some good football left. But I think we as Buffalo Bills fans probably overvalue home compared to his potential 2011-2013 ability to help this team win. I still focus on the 83 yard bombs from JP, something that isn't part of Chan's game or Fitz's game. And with our depth at WR and our likelihood to have a lot of passes go to RBs as well, I'm not sure Evans will get enough touches to have the impact we all want. But he is still clearly valuable. If there is a team out there who overvalues him like we fans do, a trade would make sense. I don't want to see a dump for a 5th round pick, but realistically despite our expectations of some success for this year, doing what is better for the team in 2012 and beyond should be first (although winning in 2011 goes a long way towards growth for 2012 and beyond), and getting picks for aging vets is generally a sound philosophy when the vets are somewhat replaceable. So I won't get Nix voodoo dolls if he does trade Evans, and I will be happy if someone overpays us for him, but I think based on what is likely going to be offered, I would rather keep Evans.

News flash, most QBs are bigger than most WRs and tougher than they look. They get roughed up by the 300lbers in the pocket, but I don't think they are going to get man handled by a CB most of the time.

Who said weight is solid muscle? It is easy to lose 10 lbs being sick. Most water weight lost comes back pretty quickly, but muscle and fat can also be lost during illness. 228lb tight end? What is this 1974?

They went to the SB with one named Mike Gandy. I wonder if he is any good?

I guarantee we won't finish 3-11.

First off, I am definitely a Bills optimist. It is part of the fun. I have had ample opportunity to jump off the bandwagon in the several decades I have not lived in Buffalo, but choose not to and enjoy the ride. But taking a realistic step backwards, does anybody think our defense will not be dramatically improved? Adding Dareus and Williams, swapping ILBs, adding Merriman, having Carrington and Troup get a year under their belt (both seem headed clearly in the right direction), having no downside of their career veterans (Kelsey doesn't count because he never had an upside), being in year 2 of a system (that by the way they struggled to start with at 0-8, then finished 4-4), and adding Dave W. to the staff. I don't know how much better, but anybody who doesn't think the D is better should come up with a decent argument as to why. The offense will also be better. No QB controversy/change, year 2 of Chan, nobody on the downside of their careers (except possibly Lee, who will not find it hard to improve upon his 2010 numbers), getting more than zero from CJ, Freddie is still low mileage, not having two of your starting OL coming off huge injuries and not able to even practice regularly in 2010, etc. I think most agree that Fitz is near his ceiling, but I would expect improved accuracy, timing, and decision making in his first full year running things from the start. No miracles, but he should be able to more consistently do things at the best of his abilities. Add in that the NFL is WAY WAY WAY less predictable than everybody says each year, and scanning through the calendar and picking wins and losses based on last year is so inaccurate. There are lots of teams that you think will be 10-6 which will end up 6-10 and vice versa. This team is much more talented than the #31 ESPN ranking, and I don't see any reason why it shouldn't be expected to get back to the 7-9 Jauron territory fairly easily. So if you add in a few good things happening and a few good bounces, and I think 9-7 is certainly a possibility even if not super likely. But right now I'm just excited about them getting to 1-0. Go Bills!

Yeah, because guys like Mike Gandy and Jonathan Scott will never get a sniff of a Super Bowl...no wait, both of those Bills castoffs started in the Super Bowl at tackle right? I definitely do not love our tackle depth and am reserved about our tackle talent, but I think Bell will be above average this year and not a big focus of blame. Remember last year he was coming off the major injury and limited in practice reps, etc. And we all KNOW no matter who plays there, RT will be better this year than last year. It is still the #1 position I was hoping we would reinforce, but I don't think things are as dire as your statement indicates.

I wish him well, and think he is a pretty good player. He was always fighting against his draft slot and Ngata, and that cost him a lot in the fans' eyes. But on the field he was not a bad player. If he and George Wilson traded draft slots I don't think Donte would have been so unpopular. But not a big loss for us as long as Byrd and Wilson stay healthy (I think Donte is better than our safety depth). Like with Poz, I think the guy at the top of our depth chart will be fine and we won't suffer there.

Yeah, we better come in last so we can get Alex Smith and not risk getting stuck with Aaron Rodgers at the bottom of the round. If we get Rothlisberger instead of Eli we will set this franchise back a decade. The #1 pick QB stuff is done and over. Sometimes good, but not always necessary. And rooting for your team to tank is not an effective way to build a winning franchise. No one draft player is sure enough to be valuable enough to have the negative impact of a losing miserable season for the team. Prediction, Fitzpatrick gets us back to the playoffs as our starter, but is not the starter when we win the Super Bowl

I will take the over on that bet. But I am an eternal optimist and focus on the positive things: 1) Year 2 of a defensive system that we sucked at last year, adding the #2 pick beast, a pro bowl OLB when healthy and some other talent while losing not much and not having any older players on the downside of the career. And adding a very talented defensive coach to the mix. 2) Year 2 of an offensive scheme and the first training camp as starter for Fitz, without having two starting linemen limping off major injuries. Again almost all players on the upswing of their career, and very likely we get more out of Spiller than we did last year. 3) A team that finished 4-4 after starting 0-8. The second half record is used a LOT as a predictor of future success, so I don't see why it doesn't apply to us. How many wins those improvements translate to is hard to tell, but there is more upside than the common feeling here. Nothing guaranteed, but if the ball bounces our way I can see this team being the best we have had in a while. Some recent results of teams coming off 4 win seasons, 10 out of 18 got to 8 wins the following year: 2010 Chiefs 10-6 2009 Bengals 10-6 2008 Falcons 11-5 2008 Jets 9-7 2007 Browns 10-6 2007 Bucs 9-7 2006 Packers 8-8 2006 Jets 10-6 2006 Titans 8-8 2005 Dolphins 9-7 The 8 teams that did not make it to .500 following a 4 win season (with previous year second half in parentheses): 2010 Raiders 6-10 (3-5) 2009 Browns 5-11 (1-7) 2009 Seahawks 5-11 (2-6) 2008 Chiefs 2-14 (0-8) 2008 Raiders 5-11 (2-6) 2006 Raiders 2-14 (1-7) 2006 49ers 7-9 (2-6) 2005 Browns 6-10 (1-7) So it is more common than not for a 4-12 team to rebound to a .500 or better season AND only once did a 4-12 team have a "strong finish" and fail to do so (2010 Raiders). Probably an inaccurate small sample size, but just an example that aside from our team getting stronger, etc., it is normal for 4 win teams to rebound, and the ones who don't usually didn't finish strong the year before.

From someone who followed the whole soap opera in the local media here in San Diego, let's be clear on one thing. When healthy he is an explosive game changer and always has been. He has had some injury issues obviously, but they are they type that don't lead me to believe he is Bob Sanders fragile, just not too lucky so far. He made a bad decision a few years back by trying to play through a knee injury instead of having surgery in the offseason. No guarantees of any football player staying healthy, but I am very excited to see him play while he is healthy, and I wouldn't be surprised if he stays much healthier than people think he will.

In other news, Al Davis has decided that the vertical passing game and drafting the fastest players doesn't really work, and is suggesting the team try to check down a little more. He will be drafting pass catching running backs and slow blocking receivers in the 2012 draft. Said Davis: "I have finally realized the error of my obsession with speed and vertical passing, and within a couple of drafts we should be able to build a winning team around Trent of players who refuse to go more than five years downfield". But I am in agreement that the Zona hit changed him, and he was lots of fun until then, so I wish him nothing but the best, and hope he can stay in the league at least a few more years without getting his brains scrambled again.