Koufax

But Dareus only .03 slower than Peterson in the 40...I'm going with a very bad list that is not that accurate in data or results.

I applaud Clayton for doing his job, and covering the teams that matter. You can't accurately cover 32 teams, so take a pass on some that the only people who really care about know more than you anyway. If he wants to tell us about some players he covers that sounds good, although he isn't much of a college guy, so not the right guy to listen to for the draft anyway.

Peterson is not the best player available, and I have my doubts that he is the best CB available. Again a position all about ball skills and instincts not about measureables. If I hear more about his football skills and less about his weight and 40 time I might think about it. If he were really the best player available I would have no problem, but it is nearly impossible for a DB to be the best player available at draft time. Revis #14 Rod Woodson #10 Nnamdi Asomugha #31 Ed Reed #24 Not an ultimate list, but what makes a truly great DB is not always clear at draft time, and I don't see the football skills for Peterson that make him a top 3 player. If I thought Peterson was actually the best player I would have no problem with him. We have added a #2 and a #3 DL last year, added Merriman, and I think while I want improving our front seven is still key, picking a second best option at #3 to do so is dumb. I think we are very fortunate that most of the players I think are in the top 10 BPA are front 7 (along with Green, Peterson, Gabbert). The reason taking Peterson at #3 would be a mistake is that he is not the best player available. He is no guarantee to be an elite corner (or even stay at corner). He doesn't dramatically improve our very good return game. My board right now would be: Dareus Green Quinn Fairley Miller Bowers Peterson Gabbert Amukamara Jones I would be happy with one of the first five and pretty disappointed to take someone after that at #3

Decertification was a strategy in negotiations and the process, neither a desire to not have a union nor a sham.

Mayock is consistently the best at these things, and I fully value his individual player ratings more than my own I have been saying since the week after the championship game that Fairley would drop, and I have been big on Dareus. I hope Dareus lasts until our pick, as I think he has a very high ceiling, and also a very high floor (low risk player). His Miller rating surprises me, because I still think he will be light to be able to make a real impact and move from very good player to a true great, but I'm starting to think I am undervaluing him. Peterson at #3 still seems way to high and on measurables mostly. You hear about his weight and 40 time much more than his ball skills and coverage skills, and I think the later two play a much larger role than the first two in being a difference maker at corner. I would be very disappointed if he were our pick. Gabbert, Green, and Quinn all have their value and could all be considered at #3. I think that is too high for Green and it takes a lot for a WR to really be a top 3 pick, while Gabbert and Quinn are both risks that aren't locks to fit in right and be elite football players, but both have tremendous ceilings.

Peterson is not the best player in the draft on draft day, and I think unlikely to turn in to the best player in the draft over the coming years. If he is it will be purely on ball skills and not 40 speed and weight and leap. Nnamdi and Revis are not the top two measurable guys in the nfl, and are the only two CBs in the league who would be worthy of a top 5. I think that Dareus might be the best football player available at #3, but I'm happy if Buddy thinks someone else based on a lot more insight than I have, and picks that guy...I just really doubt that Peterson is the best in the draft. Being fast and jumping high is normal for a corner, and are not the qualities that separate a good corner from a great corner. And in the current NFL you need to be truly elite at CB to have the impact of a great front seven guy. Can Quinn play LB? Can Newton play in the NFL? Is Miller big enough to be great instead of just very good? Is Fairley going to be big enough to do the same things in the NFL as he did in college? Those are all guys who I would like to have on my team, but I don't think any of them or Peterson is as good a pick as Dareus for us.

There is NOTHING in the measurables that people are in love with that would make Peterson a good pick at #3. If he is a good pick that high, it is purely because of ball skills. Revis and Asomugha are not the top two measurable guys, but to take a corner at #3, he has to play at that level. I just don't see Peterson being the best player available at #3. Quinn has a lot of warning flags and concerns, and I don't think he will e better than Bowers and Dareus, but I think he will be an excellent football player as well. I have him about #5 on my board at the moment, and I'm not taking the #5 guy with the #3 pick.

Why do we need someone who would help us right away? Is 2011 somehow super important and our year to go for it? I'm looking for the guy who would help this team the most over the next 5+ years. I think that is likely Dareus, but if Newton can live up to his potential he could be even more valuable, but the worst case scenario is worse for him. Miller seems safe like Dareus to be a very good player, I just don't think he will be as good a football player as Dareus. So to answer your questions, I would be disappointed but hopeful if we draft Newton, and I would be more disappointed if we drafted Miller who I would love at #8-12 where we are used to, but I don't think will be the most valuable on the board at #3. I don't think Cam is, but he could be.

Different players and different positions have different bust potential. If you think that the chances of Dareus not being a very good starter are the same as Newton not being a very good starter, and all risks are equal, I suggest you stay away from Las Vegas. Every player has a chance to fail to meet expectations, but there are certain things that make that risk higher or lower. Playing QB is a higher bust factor than playing DL, being a one year star is a higher bust factor than being a multi year starter. Playing a scheme drastically different from your NFL team is a higher bust factor than playing the same scheme. None of these things means Dareus will be a guaranteed star and Newton a guaranteed bust. And more importantly, Newton's value if he reaches his ceiling is more than Dareus. The question is what is the likelihood of each outcome, and how much are we willing to risk for a potentially more valuable player. I have not seen enough from Newton to make me want to roll the dice over Dareus, but the coaches may have, and I would love the Newton pick if it works out (but will be keeping my fingers crossed until his first Pro Bowl).

But Aaron Rodgers was a lot closer to our second round pick than our #3, so if you look at QBs picked in the top 5: Bradford Stafford Ryan Russell Vince Young Alex Smith Eli Rivers Palmer Carr Harrington Vick I probably would take my chances on that group if I could trade my #3 for a random member of that list at age 22. But there is definitely some risk element there. I am very happy to pass on Dareus if necessary if Buddy and Chan really think that Cam or Gabbert is the guy we want, but this draft isn't about history as much as it is about one question: What is the likelihood that Chan can turn Cam or Gabbert into a great NFL QB? There is always an element of risk with any player and definitely with QBs. So what do you think the chances are that Newton is considered a great QB in five years (not that he takes five years to do that, but looking at him over a five year period you would call him great)? The same for Gabbert? I think Newton is a higher ceiling (Big Ben) but also a higher risk (Russell). I haven't seen Gabbert play as much, but I would peg him as more likely to be at least very good, but less likely to be great. If either of those guys seems really pretty likely to be great, I am happy picking them. Both have the physical tools to do it. Neither has the pro-style decision making experience be certain, so we are looking at a lot of projection and guessing. I like Nix/Chan making that projection over Donohue, Jauron, etc. Similarly, if Chan has reason to think that Ponder, etc might have a good chance of being a Brees/Kolb/Schaub, I have no problem rolling the dice on that with our second or third round pick where we often settle for Youboty/Parrish/Hardy types So basically I agree with your premise and don't personally see any QB worth of #3, but I really trust Chan is very well suited to making that evaluation, and won't be disappointed if we pick a QB, because it means a huge vote of confidence from him to pass on the non-QBs...as long as Ralph isn't involved in that decision which is the main way it could go awry!

Who are these two kickers, and do you think one of them might slide to #3? Or maybe we should try to trade up to get one of them. I like Lindell, but we all know the NFL has become a kicker's league, and teams without a top notch kicker rarely go deep into the playoffs. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if Ralph forces the team to with a punter at #3 instead after Moorman's off year. Usually there is only one franchise kicker in a draft, so we have to make sure we do our homework and try to get the kicking Peyton and not the kicking Leaf. How much do you want for that rock? And I'm in on the Newton/Peterson combination for the original post, so we can take Dareus unless our football guys think enough of Quinn/Bowers/Fairley to pass on Dareus.

I think AJ Green will be a very good to great player for another NFL team. I don't think he will be the best player available when we pick (measure: expected 5 year value over replacement player). Right now I think that player is Dareus, but there are a bunch of guys who could fit. Green could be one of them, but I think he is being ranked slightly higher than his real impact over the next five years will be. I would not hate the pick, but I don't think it will be the best pick we can make, not based on "need" but based on actual ability to help a football team win games.

Yeah. We will definitely not be able to line him up at deep prevent free safety and have him get to the quarterback (cut to scene of Lancelot running in Holy Grail). Al Davis will not be drafting him. I think he will be a very good football player and wouldn't mind him at all, but I'm still preferring Dareus. And as I have been saying for a while, I don't think Fairly will be drafted #1, but I'm not sure I prefer him to Dareus anyway.

Thanks. I jumbled the exact pick we used to take him (#34) and must have been confusing that trade up with when we came back into the 1st round to take McCargo.

Very similar to the Rule V draft in baseball, with the idea of good players not getting a chance, and the complex rules after you pick one. I like this idea at some levels, but the complexity and the eliminating the possibility of developing a QB over a year or two makes it seem like a fun thing for a bottom team without a QB to throw about, but not enough upside to ever really get considered.

You mean the 4-3 for bowers? I don't see him fitting in as a 3-4 end as much as a 4-3 end. We need great football players in this draft (and every). If that guy is on defense, or it is a toss up, sure. But passing on better offensive players or skill players because of a need is a vicious cycle that leads to a mediocre roster and more needs. If this team needs so much, then try to get the best player, and not screw up another draft by positional need instead of the top football players. I think AJ Green is a little overrated right now, and the impact of a great WR is less than a great QB or great LB or great DE. In my mind in the current NFL it is harder for a talented WR to be a difference maker than other positions, and he bar is higher in terms of relative positional talent to actually be the BPA. I think he will be an excellent player, but I don't think he will prove to be the best player in this draft over the next five years. If he isn't the BPA by a clear margin, I don't even remotely consider reaching for a WR. It is similar to the Spiller situation last year, except Spiller was widely considered the BPA and played a position where generally you get more of a contribution as a rookie and over five years. I'm happy to have Quinn or Newton erase enough of the question marks, or Green or Prince A. prove to be BPA by a big distance, but if that doesn't happen, I'm most interested in Fairley/Dareus/Bowers, and think Dareus is the most likely with one of the other two being off the board if not both. But I've said since the week after the championship game, I think Fairley's stock will fall before the draft, and he will not be #1, so if Denver passes too, I would be very happy with him.

The main problem with McKelvin is the year before we passed on Revis (taken three picks later) because RB was a need. Then we picked McKelvin with Flacco and Chris Johnson on the board, again focusing on need (or just Jauron being a Mauron). That said, I don't think he was too far from being the BPA based on what teams knew on draft day. I just don't know why one year we pass on Revis at #11 and the next we take McKelvin at #11. Draft for need and you get a mediocre roster and new needs. Draft great football players at every pick. But even passing on Revis, my top four happy first rounders (as draft decisions on draft day) are Evans, Lynch, Poz, Wood. None of them jumping for joy though. Biggest head slaps on draft day were Whitner and Maybin for me, with two drafts I followed closely and really liked other players a lot more (Ngata and Orakpo, but there were others I would have preferred as well).

I'm voting Dareus today, but I think that can change to Quinn or Newton IF they impress with intangibles (not measurables) at the combine. I hate question marks at #3, and I think some of the other guys have to get rid of theirs first for me to think about them. My quick hits: Dareus - Will be available at three, is a great fit for our team, and one of the surest bets to be a great football player over the next 5-6 years. His high talent and low bust-potential has him get my vote today, but I expect that to change as a few players shed their question marks. Newton - if he can show Buddy and Chan he has what it takes to be a fast Big Ben-type, I love it and he can sit and learn. But I have too strong doubts about that to pick him with the info at hand now, and his workouts and interview will be huge. Fairley - I think he will not be the #1 pick, and I would love to have him despite some of the character/motor concerns Bowers - I think he needs a 4-3, so will be a great football player, but unable to be truly dominant if forced into a 3-4. But like Ngata, I don't like picking on scheme, so would be interested if available. Quinn - I like the upside a lot, but between the suspension and switching to LB, there are some questions to be answered before he can slide up the board for me. Green - Could be BPA, but I think WR/DB grades need a little exchange rate, and even if he is better at his position than any of the other guys are at theirs, he will contribute less to winning than the other guys, and with a more complicated BPA calculation he isn't going to be the BPA. No way I even consider him unless I am sure he is BPA. Amukamara - See Green. If he really is going to knock Revis out of the Pro-Bowl maybe, but this is way to high to take a very good DB. Peterson - I think will be less of a shutdown corner than Amukamara and we aren't lacking in the return game, so I think he will be overrated and not BPA or need. Von Miller - I think he has Very Good written all over him, but I don't see great. I want great at #3 and think we have better choices that could be great. Blaine Gabbert - No thanks, I don't think he is a top five talent. Could be a good QB, but I'm not sold. Cameron Jordan - Not at #3. Like Miller, a Very Good player, but I don't see him having the chances of being great of the other guys.

I have concerns about both Miller and Quinn, but prefer the physical beast that is Quinn to Miller based on what I have seen. Quinn is a #3 talent with some risks. Miller will be a good player, but I don't think an impact worthy of the #3 spot. I still like Dareus here, but am warming up to Quinn if the character and football smarts questions get answered positively. I also think that Fairley will slide a little between the championship game wrecking crew and the draft. Not sure if that is enough for him to slide out of #1 and if so all the way to #3, but I think it is at least 50/50 he will not be the top pick.

Buffalo is not in a position NOT to take BPA. I don't understand the revolving door comment. I would rather have great players leave after five years than pretty good players leave after five years (great players staying is the best...but no great player has ever fallen in love with Buffalo and continued to live there after retirement...could never happen). Yes, I agree, if BPA at #3 was a RB, it would be very tough to pick, and the BPA argument would probably lose some ground. But the good news is that BPA isn't a RB so we don't have that issue. For Bill, I found Bulaga interesting, although I am not sure if he is a better LT than Bell, and #9 is too high for me to take a RT, so I don't think he was a fit at #9. Trying to trade down would have been cool, and is a good enough reason to wait until the end of your time instead of rushing to the podium. If I know I want Spiller at #9, I still wait 10 minutes, and call all 31 other teams to see if they will blow me away. But I think Spiller was the best pick at #9, even though he had a disappointing season and Pouncey or Bulaga would have made a bigger 2010 difference in hindsight, and could end up as more valuable players overall. Right now my BPA board goes, based on my WAR-like positional values (but not need): Fairley Bowers Dareus Quinn Green Peterson I'm sure people who have seen more of each of these players could come up with a better order, and I'm more concerned about the model and strategy than any expectation of being able to better evaluate the individual players.

I still don't see the Ngata in the Spiller draft. Without the benefit of hindsight, who was the BPA at #9? Who is the guy picked 10-20 that you would trade Spiller for straight up AND was reasonably thought to be a better player on draft day? Spiller had a disappointing season as a rookie to say the least, and some people picked after had a great season. I think he was BPA, and I don't think he is a bust. If Green is BPA by a wide enough margin (meaning clearly is BPA, and not just a close BPA on our draft board), then he should be pour pick. Not for fans, but to help the Bills win football games over the next 5+ years. That said, I think that right now Green is likely being overrated and scored too high, and that since we are comparing apples and slightly different apples, you do need some sort of positional multiplier if you want to compare a 95 grade on a WR to a 95 grade on a LB, because I think that the team value of that 95 grade LB is more than the 95 grade WR based on things I have seen. What I am getting at is that my definition of BPA is sort of the WAR of a baseball player evaluation, and the one who will be expected to make the most contribution (above a baseline, not above our current starter, hence not a need) over five years or so. I think a "95" receiver is evaluating how important as a receiver, but is not as valuable as a "94" LB, and therefor when comparing them directly, the "94" LB is actually the BPA. I think that for all the love Green is getting now, he likely is NOT the BPA in the definition I am throwing out there (I think the same for Peterson at the moment), and Dareus or Quinn or someone else might be.

How about replacing Top Tier with "a good football player". I would love to see a good RT in free agency who is better than what we have, and forces the young guys to step up or sit. The problem with Green is that he wasn't a very good football player in 2010. Maybe he never was and he was evaluated badly, maybe he was and had a bad year. But it isn't because he wasn't top tier, but instead because he just stunk it up. I think getting difference makers in the draft and role players in free agency is a good model, and I hope we find a good RT to throw into the mix if one is available.

When healthy (and/or when juiced) he is a dominant player. He hasn't been healthy in those three years. If he can't/won't be healthy, he won't play well. If healthy but not juiced for the first time he isn't as good, he won't play well. But I think the third option is fairly likely as well. That he is going to be healthy, and his previous injury seasons don't have any correlation to his health in 2011, and that his roid factor is overblown (he clearly is strong and a hard worker). In which case he will not just be better than Maybin (an unfair joke), but will play at his pre-injury level and be a difference maker. I think after the upcoming season we will both be happy about the signing, and happy that it is a two year deal and we get to keep him for another year.

Ummm...the reason that they were bad picks is that they were players who didn't do very well and were not BPA. Calvin Johnson was a great pick because he was a great player. All things being equal and I would love a difference maker in the front 7, and I'm hoping Dareus grades out to really be a more elite player than we think. But if Green is on the board and better than anybody else, you have to take him. And with the Fitz passing attack in year two, he is likely to be able have an immediate impact. I don't think Peterson will live up to the hype, and I haven't seen enough Green to know if he really is the Calvin Johnson level to deserve his current hype. But we have to get an impact player whether it is a position that excites us on draft day or not.

No impact? First, I think that most would agree that Green is a better player than Lee, and is more likely to get open when double teamed. But forcing a double team or getting Revis on him does make our team better. We aren't playing fantasy football, we are trying to win games. I would love for Green not to be the right pick. I would love if upon the careful studying of talent, there is a front-7 guy who we think is the best player, or close enough. But right now I don't see another A talent like Green making it to us. And I don't want a B talent with the pick because we need it. If it ends up being A and A-, go ahead, take the LB/DE/DT. But I want an elite player at #3, not just a solid contributor. If the most elite player plays WR or DB, I will be disappointed that that is the reality, but happier if we pick that player and not pass on him. As for the Detroit WR vs Suh stuff, others have covered that pretty well, but Calvin Johnson is a big part of what the Lions are doing. I think they would pick Suh over him if they were in the same draft, but the real Detroit problem, much like the Bills, was not getting great players before Calvin Johnson, with picks that should be able to get great players.