colin

Rough start

Let's goooooooo

I did a bit of a deep dive on epa stats and some situational stuff. Bills are ahead of KC on offensive and defensive epa. Bills are not great on passing, but are solid on run d EPA. On o, the bills are too like 5 on pass EPA, and number two next to Washington of all teams on run EPA. DC lost their best lineman, so I think they will be much worse tomorrow. KC really just does super well on 3rd down. That's really the only place they shine statistically. The teams aside from Buffalo a the best combined lines are Denver, Baltimore, Detroit and Philly. We beat Detroit albeit their dl was down men, we smoked Denver, and did just enough to beat Baltimore. We should have a chance to test our mettle vs Philly in the chip. I really think our dl can impact mahomes enough given how their blocking is not good, and they won't have an answer to the run game.

the bills, since the age of mahomes and allen, have faced KC 9 times. The bills are 4-1 in the regular season, 0-3 in the play offs. the bills have won 4 consecutively vs kc, one each year, in the regular season. after our second win, we were eliminated by cinci on a day we would have lost to a pop warner team (allen got dumped, the story with the newscaster and such and such), so we didn't face each other that year. in the 2021/2022 season, we beat them in kc, and lost the 13 seconds game in kc. in 2023/2024 we beat them in kc, lost to them in buffalo (diggs drop, missed FG, forced one punt all day, 7+ per play for them on O). the pattern most repeated is that we win the regs, they win the playoffs. the correct pattern, which involved home and away and the the afc championship game, is thus: in the 2020/2021 season, we lost in buffalo to kc in the regular season, and then we lost to kc in kc in the afc chip game. this year, we beat kc in buffalo in the regular season, and will beat kc in kc in the afc championship game. it is written, it is known.

I think this is basically it. A bills win has us running with physical force all game, using misdirection and motion and different formations and six linemen and tight ends to wear down their d front. Play action behind that will lead to big plays and constantly stress them. Philly has the accolades but I think the best squad of linemen in the NFL wears the buffalo logo on Sundays.

It's the Dline for me. banged up in secondary, milano might not be 100%. DL has to do enough to disrupt the run, and MUST impact mahomes. in our playoff losses to mahomes, he's been sacked like 0 or 1 times, and not turned the ball over once. 75% completions, he's eaten us. every regular season game we do well, we impact him. he gets mashed off the edge, oliver comes to life and steals some plays off the snap, and mahomes throws picks. the one reason to me why this will happen is the DL has been on a heater lately, and the DC and mccoach have left their comfort zone behind them. they dial up man, have run stunts and put guys in different positions (oliver at end, hamlin on the edge blitzing, milano blitzing, 3 2 6 dime, all of it). similar to our win over baltimore, the bills need to run the ball, get a lead, put pressure on the chiefs. the difference is baltimore could run or pass on us at will, kc can't, they are decidedly middle of the pack on O. our OL is absolutely on tilt, and we will run the ball and keep josh clean snap by snap. it's gonna be trench warfare, and kc has real problems at OT and have put guards out there to try to protect mahomes. their dl is nasty at the top, but isn't deep really. the bills DL is not great but playing on fire lately (for them) and the OL are absolute disgusting yetis. the same way our small nickel base had a huge disadvantage vs baltimore in the run, the chiefs do as well vs our team. their run d has fallen off of a cliff, and we have coleman, kinkaid, and brown in this game which we didn't before, when we beat them but didn't run for ish. coleman blocking on the edge, kinkaid running routes getting fast lbs away from teh ball, and brown just dominating karloftis on power runs will be a welcome and repeated sight as we trample them.

this is Cole's chance to become a bills legend.

he got himself a mcdermott situation. he picks the gm and the power dynamic is shifted in his favor. it might buy him a scape goat if they don't have cap to sign and keep talent given how underwater that team is on the qb contract. if he makes that qb turn around and look solid, he has like 3 years of run room. not a terrible spot IMO.

the criticism of being over conservative isn't based on run vs pass calls, but on being predictable, not doing things to stress the defense, and not rolling the dice with the ball in allen's hands extending plays. I think they could have broken pattern, used TY and bunch sets, misdirection, motion, and roll outs or called runs for allen to steal some yards. they did pass, but it was small ball stuff, and the ravens were all over that. if either of the first two drives in the 3rd broke a medium play for like 12-20 yards on the first 3 snaps I think we get more aggressive on the + side of the field and get 7. that might have been enough to have henry not be a factor one drive early, which was the drive he trucked us for an easy 7. we won the game and didn't have any toxic plays on O, which is awesome, but there was a window in the game to lock it up early and i'm pretty sure behind closed doors in coaches meetings the bills brain trust is agreeing they need to stress the d in those situations to stick the dagger in and twist it early.

im convinced the only way we lose this game is if our defensive injuries nuke us. our EPA per play on O and D are superior to the Chiefs, and i think the monkey of playing lame duck vanilla on D is over. it's possible bad LB play and our secondary injuries bury us, i don't think so tho. we had 27 points vs baltimore, on really low yardage and frankly it woulda been more of we needed more on the last drive, and if we needed to hammer it in on the prior drive where we kick the FG. we will have more than that vs the cheifs. I don't think KC puts up 30+ on us.

the giants team that won over the pats in 2011 had very few blue chip guys. they went on the road and beat san fran who had what might be the greatest (qb aside) roster i've ever seen on a football team. we have one 2nd team all pro and 2 total pro bowlers and beat a team w 9. this is a murky way of measuring a team IMO. i think you need to win match ups, but we have advanced stats that tell the story better (not completely) than some guy's opinion on some general formula. I'd say we can win the super bowl because our Run O and QB match up on everyone, and our d is willing to do enough to get our O the ball.

we have to confuse mahomes and impact him as much as possible. if he's left comfortable he won't be stopped. they have weak tackles, so the pressure from the edge will have to be strong. we have to be strong in the run game too. that said, if we can run the ball and control the clock, wear their d down and force them to press, that's our best way to hurt their O. we were good but not great with the middle 8 vs baltimore. vs kc we have to be better.

i feel confident and nervous for this game all at the same time, a strange over stimulated zen state of both eerie calm and quiet panic. to the point made above about the lines -- i think we have the best ol in the nfl. I think philly is sick, and kc is good in the middle, but i just feel like the bills have the hot hand and the right mix of size and talent. a strong run game with multiple backs and being able to involve josh as a runner is not something i think any remaining NFL d can handle. kc and philly have high level ds, but they are nickel base teams and can't dominate lanes with 6 guys like the ravens do. cook is a champion from college, davis is a hungry rookie with power, and Ty is IMO our best overall matchup weapon. I think cook gets 100+ and we get 200+ rushing as a team. i've always said allen with a run game is a scary sight, it's hard to score points on us when our O is on the field chewing up yards on the ground and mashing people up.

i know the guys in philly and detroit get the all pro love and have the monster contracts, but i think spencer brown is the best RT in the NFL. he was murdering guys with blocks in the ravens game, and that team is the most intimidating in the NFL. we might see the bills identify opportunities to the outside vs kc and take advantage, quietly allen has been on a heater when he throws far for the past month, but i fully expect the bills to run hard and effectively on KC all day. we might see allen throw over 8 man boxes in the next two games. you love to see it.

i don't get how the allegations that the nfl doesn't want to draft black quarterbacks gets any play. maybe warren moon being over looked, but that was 40+ years ago. warren moon finishing college was closer to the end of WW2 than it was to today, it's not exactly recent. even in the 90 akili smith was drafted super high, and he stank out loud. didn't black qbs go 1 and 2 this last draft and the draft before it? polian was obv wrong saying lamar should be a wr (lol) but rich gannon was told he should be a wr too, and i think he won an mvp at some point. as for trubisky being drafted ahead of watson and mahomes (again, lol, oops) that was obv a terrible pick, but that rb out of LSU went ahead of mccaffery so you could wave some kind of racial bias flag on that too if you give the evidence the same weight. i really think nfl gm's and coaches have biases about players and what they can do and so on (was it the miami coach who said he wouldn't draft moulds with the last pick in teh draft?), but the majority of the NFL are black and it's a crazy idea that nfl gm's under draft them at any position, not since like the 80s or something anyhow. maybe clark does have a racial bias against josh in favor of lamar, but i suspect he's just catering to his audience who he figures want to hear that. also, the realest bias i see from ex players are for guys who were studs and physical freaks early on. so guys who were 5 stars or were bigger faster stronger than everyone else in college, and guys who won in college and went to the biggest and best schools since ex players all wanted to be those guys in their formative years, and most of the best players in the nfl were more like those guys than josh (late bloomer, no schollies, poor college team, raw, etc). to me, the position that requires physical freak gifts more than any other is DT, especially nose. and the two former bills who tell the story better than anyone to me is Pat Williams (one of my favorite bills ever) and Start lalalala (SP). star was legit the most talent player coming out of the draft one year, but just so obviously didn't love football and never really worked hard to be the best. he coulda gottan a d1 scholly after 6 weeks at a football camp having never seen a ball before, he was just gifted. pat williams was a later round pick and kinda had to show a lot of flashes to get starts on buffalo (he was behind insane talent tho, no slight there). he went on to be honestly IMO a top 5 guy at the position ever. i think ex players always remember star splitting a double team at age 19 vs two future nfl DL and just one arming the RB into a concussion and remember how he was a force of nature more than they remember a guy like pat who was overlooked but ended up being an all timer. narratives are so powerful they change people's memories sometimes.

aside from maybe philly and their oline and running back, the biggest advantage any team left playing now has over their opponents is the bills with the oline and run game. they didn't even call designed runs for allen that much on sunday. it took the ravens coming out in the second half to not trucked on a drive (if the phantom holding call never hits we score another tub there and win the game in the first half). and they are tops vs the run. denver got steam rolled. kc is a nasty team w some nasty d players, but the physical and mental advantage right now is bills oline. if we use the three back to their strengths and also run allen, or at least roll him out to threaten a scramble, they will give up gains. we've got to do what we did vs the ravens and make them stop it before we stop going to the well (i say this thinking brady was too conservative to start the 3rd quarter). kc has a fast aggressive d, but they are honestly like ours in that they play nickel and are undersized up front. they can be run on. if they figure that out, it will come to brady being in his bag and allen hitting some deep passes, but we are on a bit of a streak of success there tbh. if cook goes over 100 and we have 150+ as a team we win this game controlling it.

i think they are going to run and target worthy and kelce, scheme them open. the d has to be disciplined and hit mahomes (while avoiding flags, gulp) early and often. kc has trash tackles, that's how we make their day long. a turnover early is important and helpful. on the other side, it's about dominating at the LOS. mashing them up and running hard. cook is our all around every down weapon. 100 yards for him and kc has a steep uphill climb. TY on his big breaking plays and ray davis in power runs too. also, i think the bills must be creative on O. they weren't creative enough vs baltimore and vs kc it's necessary. huge huge game.

ya, could be. I think that game was josh and the o going off and just destroying an over matched opponent. to me the two games we had this year were better because the coaches had a specific plan and it went that way, but i get your point.

we went into that game the same way that DC is going into philly. upstart team, young qb, on a heater, all about offense, going further than expected, crazy skill talent, etc. aside from experience, seasoning, and all of that, this year we have the best combo of OL, QB, and Backs in the NFL. it feels insane to say that when the ravens are in the NFL, and henry is head and shoulders better than anyone we have at RB, but we have 3 of them and lamar was frequently impacted while josh might have been once. we need to be healthy on D, and we need our better players to show up and show out just like they did the first two games, and we need a defensive game plan and good play calling and execution and all that, but in terms of lining up, punching people in the face, and imposing will no body can do that like what we have right now on O. i fully expect us to have a lot of trouble getting kc off the field like we did with baltimore, and i also expect us to create some turnovers to compensate for that. this game is going to be won by the O line being the most dominant unit on the field and putting in body work on KC all day. Allen will run on fools, and make allen plays as is needed. i'll call it now, if james cook can hit 100 yards we walk on this

the o was super conservative and the d basically played rock paper scissors. i think it was a well coached game, and the three biggest errors in coaching/planning came on O 1 -- running qb power on 3rd and 2 from the 2. a tush push, or a less predictable play from shotgun was in order. when all you need is 2 and you have power up front, don't give up an advantage by going into shotgun unless you have a good trick. 2 -- first drive out of the half. they should have shown a prior formation and play actioned into something. those type of transitional moments are where you take those shots. a big gainer on 1st down would have potentially broken the ravens, and a td on that drive would have made the game easy. 3 -- second drive in the 2nd half -- again, the ravens were aggressive up close and had a shell behind, a creative play or qb roll out, whatever would have worked. TY Johnson eats those kinds of formations for breakfast. joe marino had a breakdown on D. when we blitzed vs when we didn't was shocking. blitzing is when all the good stuff happened, not blitzing is when all the bad stuff happened. also, on that last drive i think our guys were gassed but they advanced the ball vs linemen who wouldn't make the roster of most playoff teams. maybe there was a way to rotate into having better players out there, but that's tough. this was the second best coached game of the playoffs ever for our staff IMO. the denver game was the best (bad play got them down early, like this one, and they corrected. denver was beat by about 4 mins into the 3rd quarter). we gotta keep it up vs kc.

I do think the bills were too conservative at times. they become a bit predictable in the start of the 3rd quarter, they should have broken pattern a little bit, i think TY johnson should have been involved more, but that D is a bad match up for us. The bills are obviously more conservative on o than they were before, we were what, mid 20s in pass attempts? but one thing i think of is: where is our best talent on O? reflexively we think we have josh, he's the goat, so we have to pass the ball all day. well, if you go top to bottom talent on our O, it's josh, then something like dawkins/brown, cook, torrence, and a mix of other OL, backs, and maybe a TE with one of our Wrs thrown in. all the talent is around the ball, our ol qb and back talent is just a lot better than our outside talent. if it's not the best ol in football, it has been playing like it. and outside of allen, cook is easily our most dangerous offensive weapon, and our other 2 backs are live players too. so if you look at it that way, it kinda makes sense that we don't pass as much, especially when allen can be in the run game himself. its strange to see josh be a game manager, but if he's not throwing to consistently effective targets down the field, it makes a lot of sense.

barely over 6 yards a target and a 60% catch rate won't get him more involved. I think that's the story in a nut shell. the way our O runs, individual players don't get a lot of chances to get hot. and as said above he's not a mauler in the blocking game. i think a guy like likely in baltimore would be a monster contributor for the bills. huge and can move around and get open and catch. kincaid will get more chances to make an impact, but he's gotta be more efficient.

you're the kind of guy who goes to a destination wedding and people complain about how much they paid to fly and hotel and paid half and get a free breakfast, aren't you?

keeping to your theme of 4 minute drives, the bills clearly aim to maximize the middle 8 of the game. they were perfect on the first part of that (last 4 min of the 1st half) but failed kinda badly on the second part (our first drive in the 3rd). I thought the play calling was too conservative coming out, but after seeing the end zone angle of that knox screen, it was there all day and he might broken a big gainer. obv elated we won the game, but if he moves on that one play, we might set up another drive like the one in the first half and gotten us ahead 28-10. that likely subtracts the run drive they trucked us in the 3rd for a tub, so it mighta changed the net score by 14 in that quarter, making this a walk away game.

the d is not great, nor did it have a great game vs baltimore by most measures. what it did was turn up the variance on baltimore, but did so generally limiting big plays. it's a high stress way to play, but perhaps the best way for us to face baltimore. basically, we played to maximize negative plays for baltimore, but did so within a scheme that was built to greatly limit the very big gainers. if hamlin found depth on the pass that got to the 2 yard line, that might have been another pick or at least an incomplete, so there was a little meat on the bone. the way i looked at it, the way we were playing D, there was nearly no chance we could stop baltimore on 4 downs, but we could send them backwards or even take the ball away on one single play. that ended up being the story on 3 turnovers (two were good forced ones, one was just a crazy effort play by bernard), and we stopped them on 2 2 point attempts, and that was just enough to win the game. on the other side, we kind of played the opposite. every single play was run with the intent of not making a mistake. i thought it was too conservative at times for sure, but that ball was kept fort knox safe. the play on 3rd down from the 2 where josh ran it out of shotgun, we have run that play like 50 times this season. baltimore knew 100% what we were doing and it had very little chance of getting past them if they didn't make a mistake, but it also had a near zero fumble chance, so i get why they ran it. im worried about our d still, worried about being too conservative on O, and worried about injuries on d, but our coaches have shown more adaptability than before so that's nice.