Dr. Who

A few posters have speculated using him as part of a package to trade up. It's not a clever idea, and I'd be surprised if it happens, but then again, I didn't think there was a chance Beane would trade Diggs and absorb a massive cap hit.

If that actually happens, I'm going to stick a very nasty pin in the "bills4life" voodoo doll that I will have to rapidly construct from the shards of what remains of my telly.

That is my exact preference. I was hoping for Kincaid last year. Maybe the same magic will happen again.

If your main criteria is a rookie who can come in and immediately handle a lot of targets, that's McConkey, imo, but he's not a classic X. He takes the Diggs' role.

I have no idea what they are going to do, or what Beane is thinking, obviously, but I don't think Samuel was signed as a replacement for Davis, as some appear to speculate. They will line him up all over the place, including the backfield. I don't see him as a boundary receiver primarily. Samuel is a versatile weapon that fits Brady's vision for the offense, but if anything, I'd rather picture him as an upgrade to the role Harty was supposed to fulfill. In addition, I am not convinced a significant leap in targets for Shakir is the best option. As others have pointed out, he would be an outlier as a success on the outside given his short arms. I like him as a weapon, but I don't see him as expanding his targets so much that the WR room can't tolerably add two WRs that command significant targets. You can get by with 1 WR early. You could just adjust the targets and give more to Samuel and Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, etc. I personally still do not see a big-bodied X to replace Davis. If you think that is all you need, then someone like Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette should be the main interest in the draft. I am not convinced Coleman can be a boundary receiver like that because of limited speed, but some like him. Maybe Burton, Walker, or Polk could be considered on day 2. My argument for McConkey is that I think he's a special talent who can play the role that Diggs has been playing. Franklin could, too, but I like McConkey better. Lots of folks probably have it the other way around. I think his ceiling is well above Shakir's. I would rather keep Shakir's targets on the lower end, where I think you can maximize his talent, than expand them significantly. I like the idea of two rookie contracts for a potential WR1 and WR2 that can grow together with Josh, and I'd rather have some redundancy in the WR room in the sense that you have more latitude where the targets can be spread around, and backup options if someone gets injured. That may not be efficient, but that's the way I prefer to go with it, and some of this is to take advantage of the extraordinary depth at the position early in the draft (the tiers of WR that will go in the first 40 to 45 picks.) Some will counter that we have too many other needs and this is a luxury set of choices. I don't see it precisely that way, but I am not strictly motivated by filling out the roster as completely as possible.

Traded our 2nd next year to move up in the second. Yes, there is an UGA bias. I've seen these players enough to feel comfortable with my evaluation on them. Guess a lot of folks don't like or are blase about Mitchell. I like this draft, all the same. 28. Adonai MitchellWR Texas 40. Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia 128. Tykee SmithS Georgia 133. Mason McCormickOG South Dakota State 144. Jordan JeffersonDT LSU 160. Tyler DavisDT Clemson 163. Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville 200. Xavier ThomasEDGE Clemson 204. Zion Tupuola-FetuiEDGE Washington 248. Carter BradleyQB South Alabama

He played 70% of his snaps on the outside at UGA. He's not primarily a slot receiver. I think he can fill the Diggs' role. You still need an X -- Thomas, Legette, Mitchell, etc. I think we need two WR early, and I'd be thrilled if McConkey were one of them.

Well, given the state of our WR room today, Beane has rather backed himself into, or allowed himself, to be placed in a momentarily dangerous position. Minus WR1 and WR2, bracketing out whether Diggs was still a WR1 or Davis an adequate WR2, the overall talent is very poor relative to the rest of the NFL. Beane simply has to make a best effort play, and endure the risk of inherent uncertainty that is crystallized in the drama of sport, but part of the existential nature of choice. It's either push all your chips in on a top 3, should that option present itself, split the difference on a fella like Thomas, or double dip at #28 and a trade up from #60. The folks who think there is another plan, like waiting till #60, or God forbid, even later to address the WR deficit are deceiving themselves about what we currently have, even if Kincaid becomes the fella we all hope he can be, and Samuel and Shakir are at least capable pros.

So, if I were king, I'd make Terry Pegula wear a big cowboy hat with that number emblazoned on it for a month. For sure, I'd make him wear it to Las Vegas for the 2024 Draft. Maybe Jack Eichel would come up to him and say "hi." I bet he'd fire Don Granato then, and maybe hire a real GM and coach. Or sell to someone who gave a damn, but most likely that would be someone who'd want to move the team to Atlanta or Portland or somewhere else more deserving of a dozen years plus of missing the playoffs.

Yes, you are certainly wrong. Or perhaps not, but I like to start with a strong statement that affirms all my prejudices. It seems to me your argument, if I follow you well, is rather reminiscent of a similar argument with regard to the defense. It performs admirably in the regular season, then fades into disappointment once the zebras tend to allow more holding, and one is confronted with the better qbs, etc. Folks say we lack playmakers, and that hits both sides of the ball. We have depth, and we have good players, but few elite talents that can rise to the challenge of the moment once the post-season comes. I do think we currently lack the minimum threshold for that quality of playmaker, though we have some young guys who might ascend to that level. Josh is the only one I comfortably count as one. This doesn't mean he has not had failures, but our franchise qb is certainly someone who can be that player. (I am not using alpha as a technical scientific term, debunked or otherwise. I just grabbed it as part of a conversation, but if it offends you or bothers you because it is populist nonsense, I have no attachment to it whatsoever.) However we get them, first round, fifth round, free agent, trade, I think we need to elevate the talent level of the WR room beyond capable players. I'm not sure we can pay the price for a top 3 WR, and of course, even the so-called safest pick has some element of risk. So many factors play into life, and it is true in sports as elsewhere. It's not a science, but an art, and the best scientists also have an aesthetic sense. Mathematicians and physicists often intuit the answer before they find the "proof" for it. I'm pretty sure you know all this. So, I would be excited to get one of those top 3 WRs, but probably be rather appalled at the price tag. My own sense of balancing prudence and risk is to opt for a double dip early at the position. I still think the odds of finding a playmaker talent at WR favor getting them early, so I'd prefer two lottery tickets. And I think you could get geometric payoffs, where the combination exceeds the value of each alone. Personally, I love McConkey, and as a few others have surmised, I think he could fill the Diggs' role. He's not just a slot, and he's simply a smooth, beautiful route runner with more speed than some credit. Then I'd like to add a big-bodied X: Thomas, Mitchell, Legette are my preferences. This is not selling off next year's first, but it would cost something to come away with two of those.

He's so smooth, the fella is WR Fred Astaire. One of my favorites in this draft.

I don't think a lot folks are buying the need for an alpha. Many seem to think the idea of WR1 is obsolete. They believe all you have to do is spread the ball around to capable receivers. There's no sense that the stress imposed by a dominant WR opens up space for the role players, and that without that fella, the space goes away and with it, much of the productivity of the role players. Indeed, there are those who argue that we found Davis and Shakir in the mid-rounds, and presuming they were/are "good enough," there's no urgency, or they point to a deep draft at the position and think one can safely let the draft come to you. This relative complacency perpetuates the same m.o. of asking Josh Allen to elevate mid-level talent, rather than providing him with some elite talent to work with. It's disheartening to me to see that mindset, and I don't understand how it is compelling to many, but apparently it is.

Well, I guess it depends what you mean by fall, and who you think are WR 4 - 6. Regardless, all the tier 2 and probably tier 3 will be gone by the mid-forties. Maybe Polk makes it to #60, and I would take him if that were the case.

I don't like him, especially if he has to play big slot to be effective in the NFL. That's the argument I have seen made. If he could be an effective boundary receiver, that is a different story, but I'm not convinced that is the case. I sure as hell wouldn't take him at #28.

Unlikely Thomas is there, and only possible Mitchell will be. McConkey and Franklin for sure are gone well before #60. If you want two early, you have to trade up from #60, imo. I would add Legette to the list, personally.

So you get pick 9, you give up #28, next year's first, your starting RT, and #60, and then you are waiting till day 3 for your next pick? And you are counting on Collins to be your new starting RT? I hate it, in CAPS.

I don't see Samuel as a Davis replacement, so I don't see that move as addressing the loss of the boundary receiver, or now Diggs. Unless you think Shakir can take over for Davis, I think you still need two.

Did you think they needed one before Diggs was traded, or were you content to take a late round receiver? Because otherwise, I think trading Diggs implies two is better than one.

P.S. It wasn't a fake slide.

I think he'll rebound and have a decent year, but he is declining. Solid WR2 is probably his ceiling, but who knows? He no longer plays for my team, so thankfully, I no longer have to give a damn about his antics.

I do think the top 3 represent a genuine tier that has very good odds to yield WR1 with high ceilings and relatively safe floors. So, I would understand paying the price to get one, and be excited by the player. OTOH, it will cost a lot and pretty much make impossible addressing reasonable needs. I think, given where the quality is in the draft, you'd want to add OL depth, CB depth, S, DL, RB2, and ideally two WRs. You might create a scenario where you could trade up for Thomas and still make that happen, but it would be difficult. Thomas is not a finished product; you're betting on traits. Right now, he's a one-trick pony, albeit it's quite a pony. I'd certainly be happy to get him, and I don't have the skepticism some bright folks on this board appear to have towards him. After trading DIggs, my preference is to double dip early at receiver. I'm in the group who think that is the best way to maximize the value of Josh Allen, and the best approach to that elusive post-season success. I would not neglect D in the draft, but I still say you prioritize WR. The plan should be to get 2 in the first 45 picks, and the closer to the first 40 the better. The easiest route is to stay at #28, and trade up from #60. Or trade back from #28 and also move up from #60. I personally don't want Coleman. I could be talked into Franklin, but he's not one of my favorites. I like Mitchell more than most. The tandem I like best is Legette and McConkey.

I don't see him as a "big-bodied" X, so the qualifier matters from my perspective.

Further, the problem with Coleman as a big slot is that is where Kincaid lines up most of the time. I don't want to draft a WR high with the expectation that he needs to take snaps from Kincaid to see the field a lot.

You moved up eleven spots for a 2025 2nd? What's the point of the mock if they are so outrageously out-of-touch with reality? I understand that one must accept a certain amount of credulous math, but that's too much. And then Odunze falling to #17 in the first place is highly unlikely. I think Johnny Wilson is a fifth-round pick. That's about where I think you can take a chance on him. I prefer Cornelius Johnson as a late rounder WR if he's there, but Flournoy is intriguing as well. I'd be surprised if Bishop is around past pick 100, but great if it happens. Tykee Smith is someone I like a bit later in round 4. Did you have a choice between Limmer and Bortolini? I think I prefer the latter, but that's a solid choice. Jordan Jefferson at 200 is another impossible happening. As you say, the value is nuts. Below was my attempt to see what would happen if you made a realistic trade up for a top 3 WR. It was expensive -- #28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, and 4th. I tried less and the model rejected it. So, I dunno, but just as ballpark, maybe it's indicative. The main point, I think, is if you go that way, you're not getting everything you'd like, and the second WR has to come late. It would have helped if the Machine was generous enough to offer Jordan Jefferson at 200. 9. Malik NabersWR LSU 60. Chris BraswellEDGE Alabama 133. Audric EstimeRB Notre Dame 144. Tykee SmithS Georgia 163. Gabe HallDT Baylor 200. Cornelius JohnsonWR Michigan 204. Khristian BoydDT Nothern Iowa 248. Frank CrumOT Wyoming