BuffOrange

Wow this team stinks.

Haha I was being sarcastic. If you fail on 4th&Goal, having the other team pinned down isn't a bad consolation. Since 3 is only 42% of 7, you don't even have to be successful half the time for going for it to be correct in the 1st Qtr of a 0-0 game (and that's not even factoring in the ~18yds of field position you gain from failing vs a kickoff...the same field position that coaches like Marrone covet like their first born child). Once you get past the math, the idiot conservative announcer guy then needs to grasp at ridiculous abstract concepts like 'momentum' to make their case. Which of course runs totally contrary with what Aaron Williams said the other day (basically - "take a chance, we'll bail you out if you get stopped") but whatever.

Maybe. But if the Woods int in Houston and the Sammy flag picked up in Detroit don't qualify as major incidents, what does? Does Jack Tatum have to come out of retirement and molest someone?

Yeah, they understand the value of field position - it's the most important thing in the world. Unless they have 4th&goal from the 2 in which case, it's not even part of the equation.

Again, you're making the same point as the "transitive, common opponents" thing I'm saying is ridiculous. You could've said the same thing about two of the three Jauron teams (not so much '07) when our point differential was basically the same as it is now. This season is nothing new. That's just a fact - no pessimism required.

Same thing as the Raiders & Jets nearly beating NE in Foxboro, Tampa Bay winning @Pittsburgh, Miami getting smoked by KC at home, St Louis beating Denver & SF, SF romping @Dallas, Houston getting punked by the Giants, the Chargers getting not one but two tough games from Oakland, the Jets giving GB everything they can handle in Lambeau and 50 other games.... Nothing. Sorry but you're asking for the snarky koolaid posts. If you still think transitive properties in common opponents matter in 2014 I don't know what to tell you.

I don't even... You're all over the place. Some of that rant sounds like Rush Limbaugh yelling at a conservative. The Football Outsiders/Advanced Statheads that you have such venom for are the ones constantly reminding others that randomness exists to a larger degree than most realize - your insistence otherwise is bizarre and illustrates your lack of understanding for their work. There are absolutely models that predict W/L's - how do you think Vegas Over/Under Win totals are determined before the season? They know who was better or worse than their record last year - fumble recovery rates and record in 1score games are always good places to start. For the Brady part it almost sounds like you're trolling yourself. You're acknowledging the declining rating over multiple years and I guess saying the last month is a more significant sample. Okie Dokie. If he doesn't do anything better than he did years ago and is worse in an important area (an area that's usually the first to decline with father time), then yes, my insane logic concludes from that he's in decline. I'm nutty like that.

WTF. Apparently Tomlin is playing against Ben in his league too.

Harbaugh feels like a deal with the devil because he's such an *** but I think he's a legit top coach. If they can't get him then I vote college guy all the way; just make sure it's not another Dick Jauron in disguise like Marrone is.

That article makes sure to say "blindly" 1,100 times. GMAFB. What is the author's alternative for player/team evaluation - the box score? The redzone channel? Parroting idiot announcers' cliches about momentum? Whether its PFF or Football Outsiders or Kenpom in basketball; analytics opponents always hold these impossibly high standards of perfection that no "eyeball test" is ever held to. Removing emotion from the equation is a good thing. Saying a 37yr old all-time great is in decline - which he is if you watch and document his deep throws - should not be controversial, but obviously Boston fans get their panties in a bunch and interpret that as "OMG they're saying he stinks like Geno Smith" which of course nobody said.

You're 1,000% right. I actually get angry watching games I don't care about because I'm certain I could do better. Two instances yesterday. 1) Ron Rivera running twice from the 30 with 1:40 left, down 2, when ATL has 2 time outs left. I don't even care that they missed a FG. What is your win expectancy when you make that FG - 52%? It's like 92% if you get a 1st down. Idiot. Marrone did the same thing in the same situation @Miami last year and got bailed out by FJax breaking 100 tackles on a 3rd down run. 2) Chuck Pagano calls time out with 1:00 left in half after completion gets them to the NE 10. Why? Are you trying to give Brady a chance to score before half (even the normally conservative/brain-dead Dungy mentioned this...the fact that NE mysteriously took a knee & dominated the 2nd half is besides the point). Coaches love talking about slim margins and the little things and constantly butcher this simple stuff. It's maddening. The only defense for Marrone is that most others are just as bad at it. But when you're Buffalo that's not good enough for me - it's one of the few areas in 2014 where there's an obvious edge to be had in this department and we never use it.

+1. Small consolation for having a bad coach, but true nonetheless.

Oh give it up already. He's good, you were wrong. That's a nicer way of saying we haven't lost to a team that's 3-6 or worse in non-Bills games (Houston is 4-5). Yipee.

GG Bengals. +8 free $. The Saints have played exactly 1 good home game out of 5. I'm guessing there's finally an adjustment next week & they're only a small favorite vs Baltimore. How do the Giants not cover there, WTF. Thanks Eli. Lol @ 3 straight fades. Ron Rivera back to being a wimp, running on 3rd&5 from the 30 before the missed FG when ATL had a time out left. Even if the FG is made you feel good about kicking off w/ 90sec's left up 1 with your defense? Arizona long-term can only go so far w/ Stanton but I'm totally on the bandwagon anyway; love how they play on both sides of the ball. Crazy how good the D is without Docket & Washington. Arians rocks. Our Chargers loss looks worse every week and makes me think we're lucky to be 5-5 (that and the NFC Norse white knucklers). Still it'd be nice to play in a "2014 NFC South" one of these years.

Ya #1 and 2 mean nothing to me. I'd like to see them try another college coach; just not one that's stuck in 1971. Harbaugh would be fine too.

I mean it started in 1998 so I don't know why we're surprised 16yrs later. At this point Walt Coleman is the equivalent of the "special guest referee" in the WWF. You know he'll have an impact and that it will usually end badly for the good guy.

Finnigan is a big loss? Who is his backup, Justin Rodgers?

The NE game was 8,000,001 times more important to us than it was for Denver and it was home? And Denver is the only good team, not lots.

Garcon easy. Don't like him, never draft him, but playing him in draftkings vs Tampa. If you want to play Sproles then sit West.

I was wondering like eight years ago how long it would take before the 2000 Ravens point stopped getting made because of how obviously ridiculous it is. I would've bet the under on 2014 and incredibly, would've lost. Hey better yet lets strive to be mediocre on both sides of the ball and pray that our QB plays out of his skull for a month; that worked for the 2012 Ravens.

I remember 'cause you quoted my Jets straight up call. #HumbleBrag

Ya honestly being p!ssed about losing is something that's been missing in that locker room for a long time imo (or they've done an incredible job of faking it). Obviously he'll look dumb if we lay an egg but if that happens the season is over anyway in which case who cares if he has egg on his face.

plenz you're mostly right but obviously the sharps bet much bigger $ amounts than the public so it's not as extreme as 70% of money even if 80% of bets are on one side. But yah, it's pretty hilarious that every thread on every forum ever reveals "let me tell you how Vegas works even though I have no clue" guy. If majority of donkey square opinions were the only factor, the lines would be extremely easy to beat; and the Jets would've been getting double digits to Pittsburgh instead of 4.

We have one of the wimpiest 4th down coaches in a league full of wimpy 4th down coaches, which was proven over and over again yesterday. Zero threads on the wimpy punts/FG's. Threads on the one time they went for it though. If I didn't know fans better it'd be unbelievable.

Same. It could've been mitigated if we got a TD on the next possession, but Brown couldn't break a weak tackle on 1st down. I know every announcer likes to talk about "two possession game" and all that but 14 is miles better than 10; it's a bigger difference than 7 and 10 contrary to popular belief.