dave mcbride

The Jets game at home and a terrible Bears team probably account for a lot of that differential. I felt like the Bills pressured fields nearly every play and they destroyed Mike White. Also, the Bears' talent is absolutely awful.

The parenthetical numbers are their rankings out of 32. The Bills are second vs. nickel and the Dolphins nickel D is the 25th best nickel D in the league.

One thing to keep in mind is that the cap is likely to go WAY up. Bear in mind that it went down in the covid year and the league has had a banner year revenue wise this year. It's expected to go up by $15 million or so: https://www.nfl.com/news/salary-cap-for-2023-nfl-season-could-exceed-220-million-but-questions-remain .

Monday is a national holiday, so presumably you're good.

Edmunds was one of the two-three best players on the field vs. NE. He was also terrific vs. Chicago.

Enh, it's basically an inflation-adjusted version of the Fred Warner contract. https://www.nfl.com/news/niners-linebacker-fred-warner-s-lucrative-contract-has-a-unique-structure-with-t. The going rate for elite off-ball LBs, basically. Edmunds will likely get something in this neighborhood given his youth (he'll be 25 in May).

They're both very good. Edmunds played at an elite level this year, and it's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league.

Who cares about Lamar. What does Edmunds think?

They beat them in 2020 and SF was devastated by injury. They started Nick Mullins and a ton of guys were out on defense, including Bosa. The Bills won 34-24 but were up 34-17 with less than a minute to go. The Niners scored a garbage time TD in the last minute.

He was playing with a fractured thumb on his throwing hand since week five. One has to factor that in.

They only had 90 yards rushing vs the pats. They also could have had had 100 but resorted to kneel downs at the end. Yes, this idea that the Bills didn’t force a lot of turnovers seems to be the mindset of people who only watch Bills games.

Detroit had one of the better defenses in the league in the second half of the season. Chicago’s D is terrible, but the weather was effing ridiculous.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted,this stat is called VOA. DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

Yes, it does. To believe otherwise suggests that one thinks Eric Dickerson's 2,105 yards in 16 games is the real record rather than the 2,003 OJ ran for in 14 games. OJ averaged nearly 150 yards per game in 1973. You really think he wouldn't have surpassed 2,105 with two more games?

To clarify because people should be aware of this, the Bills had the best point differential in the league on a per game basis. Which is what matters.

Just to expand, the Bills' positive point differential on a per-game basis was 10.5, and the 49ers differential was 10.2. So, Bills win.

And it was a horrible non-call. Stevenson had been driven back three yards and progress had been stopped. Not challengeable, though.

The best point differential in the NFL on a per game basis, actually. SF played one more game than they did.

I get that, but please don't use "bye" when they lose a starting safety and see a major piece (Taron Johnson) get put in concussion protocol. I realize it could have been worse on the injury front.

You can say that about so many teams. The Chiefs have struggled to win a lot of games this year. Philly barely beat Indy, and probably should have lost. The Bengals got waxed by the Browns and arguably should have lost to the Patriots if not for a bad non-call on Stevenson's forward progress.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2022/regular #1 overall #2 in offense #4 in defense #1 in special teams

There is no definitive evidence that Bosa got hurt. All the stories say he "may have" aggravated his groin injury, but that he also had an illness the day before the game. As far as I can tell, there's no clarity about an actual injury. I'm not saying at all that it was wise to play him, though.

A bye week in which they lost their starting free safety for the season.

I think the throws were off. Josh was visibly angry at himself after the one he threw behind him in the third quarter. On the one that he threw too far, yes, it wasn't a great throw, but an NFL receiver is trained to toe-tap and he didn't even make an effort, as if he didn't know where he was. Happened in the Bears game too. He's gotta get his head together and concentrate better than he has been doing this season.

Yes. The big issue with him this year is consistency, and I think that's a function of concentration. He may have an ankle issue still, and that could be affecting his toe-tapping ability etc. He was great at that in his rookie season. The dropped bomb yesterday was pretty bad, but I don't think that's necessarily indicative of anything except inconsistency, which has plagued him this year. It's not as if he hasn't made a lot of big plays too.